• Title/Summary/Keyword: Robust decision making

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Combining Judgments for Better Decisions: A Study for Investigating Effective Combining Schemes

  • Lee, Hoon-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.159-174
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    • 1996
  • Facing decision-making tasks, managers frequently make judgments, However, since managers are human beings, the fficiency of their judgments is limited. Two major sources of inefficiency in their judgments have been recognized : one is systematic deviations from normatively preferred decisions, so called bias or incorrect intuition, and the other is inconsistency in their judgments, i. e. erratic decision making variance. Rather than bias, variance is really expensive or damaging. Thus, if the inconsistency inmanagers judgments is removed, performance could be by far improved by virtue of the reduced random variance. One of the approaches to improve managerial judgment is to simply bring managers together by effectively moderating the random variance due to inconsistency. Focusing on combining judgments, this paper addresses many relevant issues such as why combining and how to combine judgments, and suggests methods and models to effectively aggregate subjective judgments, We conduct an experiment to validata the effectiveness of combining jugements over individual judgments. Various combining schemes are also evaluated in terms of their prective accuracy. Among them, mean bias based wighting scheme turns out the best. However, when available information is not enough to estimate the expertise of judges, simple and robust equal weighting might be more efficient and productive. This urges an imperative future research on the issue of how many and which ones to combine from a large set of experts.

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Unethical Network Attack Detection and Prevention using Fuzzy based Decision System in Mobile Ad-hoc Networks

  • Thanuja, R.;Umamakeswari, A.
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.2086-2098
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    • 2018
  • Security plays a vital role and is the key challenge in Mobile Ad-hoc Networks (MANET). Infrastructure-less nature of MANET makes it arduous to envisage the genre of topology. Due to its inexhaustible access, information disseminated by roaming nodes to other nodes is susceptible to many hazardous attacks. Intrusion Detection and Prevention System (IDPS) is undoubtedly a defense structure to address threats in MANET. Many IDPS methods have been developed to ascertain the exceptional behavior in these networks. Key issue in such IDPS is lack of fast self-organized learning engine that facilitates comprehensive situation awareness for optimum decision making. Proposed "Intelligent Behavioral Hybridized Intrusion Detection and Prevention System (IBH_IDPS)" is built with computational intelligence to detect complex multistage attacks making the system robust and reliable. The System comprises of an Intelligent Client Agent and a Smart Server empowered with fuzzy inference rule-based service engine to ensure confidentiality and integrity of network. Distributed Intelligent Client Agents incorporated with centralized Smart Server makes it capable of analyzing and categorizing unethical incidents appropriately through unsupervised learning mechanism. Experimental analysis proves the proposed model is highly attack resistant, reliable and secure on devices and shows promising gains with assured delivery ratio, low end-to-end delay compared to existing approach.

Blockchain-Enabled Decentralized Clustering for Enhanced Decision Support in the Coffee Supply Chain

  • Keo Ratanak;Muhammad Firdaus;Kyung-Hyune Rhee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2023.11a
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    • pp.260-263
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    • 2023
  • Considering the growth of blockchain technology, the research aims to transform the efficiency of recommending optimal coffee suppliers within the complex supply chain network. This transformation relies on the extraction of vital transactional data and insights from stakeholders, facilitated by the dynamic interaction between the application interface (e.g., Rest API) and the blockchain network. These extracted data are then subjected to advanced data processing techniques and harnessed through machine learning methodologies to establish a robust recommendation system. This innovative approach seeks to empower users with informed decision-making abilities, thereby enhancing operational efficiency in identifying the most suitable coffee supplier for each customer. Furthermore, the research employs data visualization techniques to illustrate intricate clustering patterns generated by the K-Means algorithm, providing a visual dimension to the study's evaluation.

Proposing Multi-Objective Robust Optimization for Dam Operations in Future (미래 댐 운영을 위한 다목적 로버스트 최적화 제안)

  • Yoon, Hae Na;Kim, Gi Joo;Seo, Seung Beom;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.114-114
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    • 2018
  • 과거 수십년간 댐의 운영방법은 과거 관측 유입량 자료를 바탕으로 결정되었지만, 미래 기후변화의 불확실성을 고려하면 기존 운영방법이 더 이상 유효하지 않을 수 있다. 따라서, 이에 대응하여 수자원을 적절히 운용하기 위해서는 기후변화의 불확실성을 고려한 댐의 운영방법에 대한 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구는 예측 유입량의 불확실성을 고려하기 위하여 로버스트(Robust) 의사결정 방법을 댐 운영 최적화에 접목한 다목적 로버스트 최적화(Multi-Objective Robust Optimization) 방법을 제안한다. 이는 기존의 다목적 로버스트 의사결정이론(MORDM, Multi Objective Robust Decision Making)과 로버스트 최적화이론(Robust Optimization)을 결합한 의사결정 방법이다. 로버스트 최적화의 목적함수는 로버스트 항(Robust Term)을 신뢰도, 심각도, 그리고 회복도 등의 여러 관점으로 구성할 수 있으며, 이는 다목적 최적화의 일종으로 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 신뢰도와 심각도 관점으로 로버스트 항을 적절히 구성하고 그 가중치들을 조절하며, 그에 따라 기후변화의 상황에서 댐 운영의 수행결과가 어떻게 변하는지 의사결정자들이 파악할 수 있도록 가시화한다. 그리고 동시에, 목표하는 댐 운영의 안정성이 다양한 미래 기후변화 시나리오 상에서 유지되도록 하는 로버스트 항과 각 항의 가중치들을 결정하는 방법을 제시한다. 이를 통해 의사결정자는 여러 측면에서 안정적인 다목적 로버스트 최적화의 해를 찾아갈 수 있다. 댐 운영을 위한 로버스트 최적화를 진행하기 위해서 본 연구는 Robust-SDP(Stochastic Dynammic Programming)을 수행하였으며, 대상유역인 보령댐이 이수기동안 인근지역의 수요량만큼 물을 충분히 공급함을 목적으로 로버스트 최적화를 진행하였다. 아울러, 저수지 용량이 로버스트 최적화에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해서 남강댐에 동일한 최적화 방법을 적용하고 이를 비교하였다.

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Intelligent Intrusion Detection and Prevention System using Smart Multi-instance Multi-label Learning Protocol for Tactical Mobile Adhoc Networks

  • Roopa, M.;Raja, S. Selvakumar
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.2895-2921
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    • 2018
  • Security has become one of the major concerns in mobile adhoc networks (MANETs). Data and voice communication amongst roaming battlefield entities (such as platoon of soldiers, inter-battlefield tanks and military aircrafts) served by MANETs throw several challenges. It requires complex securing strategy to address threats such as unauthorized network access, man in the middle attacks, denial of service etc., to provide highly reliable communication amongst the nodes. Intrusion Detection and Prevention System (IDPS) undoubtedly is a crucial ingredient to address these threats. IDPS in MANET is managed by Command Control Communication and Intelligence (C3I) system. It consists of networked computers in the tactical battle area that facilitates comprehensive situation awareness by the commanders for timely and optimum decision-making. Key issue in such IDPS mechanism is lack of Smart Learning Engine. We propose a novel behavioral based "Smart Multi-Instance Multi-Label Intrusion Detection and Prevention System (MIML-IDPS)" that follows a distributed and centralized architecture to support a Robust C3I System. This protocol is deployed in a virtually clustered non-uniform network topology with dynamic election of several virtual head nodes acting as a client Intrusion Detection agent connected to a centralized server IDPS located at Command and Control Center. Distributed virtual client nodes serve as the intelligent decision processing unit and centralized IDPS server act as a Smart MIML decision making unit. Simulation and experimental analysis shows the proposed protocol exhibits computational intelligence with counter attacks, efficient memory utilization, classification accuracy and decision convergence in securing C3I System in a Tactical Battlefield environment.

Parametric optimization of an inerter-based vibration absorber for wind-induced vibration mitigation of a tall building

  • Wang, Qinhua;Qiao, Haoshuai;Li, Wenji;You, Yugen;Fan, Zhun;Tiwari, Nayandeep
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.241-253
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    • 2020
  • The inerter-based vibration absorber (IVA) is an enhanced variation of Tuned Mass Damper (TMD). The parametric optimization of absorbers in the previous research mainly considered only two decision variables, namely frequency ratio and damping ratio, and aimed to minimize peak displacement and acceleration individually under the excitation of the across-wind load. This paper extends these efforts by minimizing two conflicting objectives simultaneously, i.e., the extreme displacement and acceleration at the top floor, under the constraint of the physical mass. Six decision variables are optimized by adopting a constrained multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (CMOEA), i.e., NSGA-II, under fluctuating across- and along-wind loads, respectively. After obtaining a set of optimal individuals, a decision-making approach is employed to select one solution which corresponds to a Tuned Mass Damper Inerter/Tuned Inerter Damper (TMDI/TID). The optimization procedure is applied to parametric optimization of TMDI/TID installed in a 340-meter-high building under wind loads. The case study indicates that the optimally-designed TID outperforms TMDI and TMD in terms of wind-induced vibration mitigation under different wind directions, and the better results are obtained by the CMOEA than those optimized by other formulae. The optimal TID is proven to be robust against variations in the mass and damping of the host structure, and mitigation effects on acceleration responses are observed to be better than displacement control under different wind directions.

Robust Spectrum Sensing for Blind Multiband Detection in Cognitive Radio Systems: A Gerschgorin Likelihood Approach

  • Qing, Haobo;Liu, Yuanan;Xie, Gang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.1131-1145
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    • 2013
  • Energy detection is a widely used method for spectrum sensing in cognitive radios due to its simplicity and accuracy. However, it is severely affected by the noise uncertainty. To solve this problem, a blind multiband spectrum sensing scheme which is robust to noise uncertainty is proposed in this paper. The proposed scheme performs spectrum sensing over the total frequency channels simultaneously rather than a single channel each time. To improve the detection performance, the proposal jointly utilizes the likelihood function combined with Gerschgorin radii of unitary transformed covariance matrix. Unlike the conventional sensing methods, our scheme does not need any prior knowledge of noise power or PU signals, and thus is suitable for blind spectrum sensing. In addition, no subjective decision threshold setting is required in our scheme, making it robust to noise uncertainty. Finally, numerical results based on the probability of detection and false alarm versus SNR or the number of samples are presented to validate the performance of the proposed scheme.

Robust Speech Recognition with Car Noise based on the Wavelet Filter Banks (웨이블렛 필터뱅크를 이용한 자동차 소음에 강인한 고립단어 음성인식)

  • Lee, Dae-Jong;Kwak, Keun-Chang;Ryu, Jeong-Woong;Chun, Myung-Geun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.115-122
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    • 2002
  • This paper proposes a robust speech recognition algorithm based on the wavelet filter banks. Since the proposed algorithm adopts a multiple band decision-making scheme, it performs robustness for noise as the presence of noisy severely degrades the performance of speech recognition system. For evaluating the performance of the proposed scheme, we compared it with the conventional speech recognizer based on the VQ for the 10-isolated korean digits with car noise. Here, the proposed method showed more 9~27% improvement of the recognition rate than the conventional VQ algorithm for the various car noisy environments.

A Desirability Function-Based Multi-Characteristic Robust Design Optimization Technique (호감도 함수 기반 다특성 강건설계 최적화 기법)

  • Jong Pil Park;Jae Hun Jo;Yoon Eui Nahm
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.199-208
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    • 2023
  • Taguchi method is one of the most popular approaches for design optimization such that performance characteristics become robust to uncontrollable noise variables. However, most previous Taguchi method applications have addressed a single-characteristic problem. Problems with multiple characteristics are more common in practice. The multi-criteria decision making(MCDM) problem is to select the optimal one among multiple alternatives by integrating a number of criteria that may conflict with each other. Representative MCDM methods include TOPSIS(Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), GRA(Grey Relational Analysis), PCA(Principal Component Analysis), fuzzy logic system, and so on. Therefore, numerous approaches have been conducted to deal with the multi-characteristic design problem by combining original Taguchi method and MCDM methods. In the MCDM problem, multiple criteria generally have different measurement units, which means that there may be a large difference in the physical value of the criteria and ultimately makes it difficult to integrate the measurements for the criteria. Therefore, the normalization technique is usually utilized to convert different units of criteria into one identical unit. There are four normalization techniques commonly used in MCDM problems, including vector normalization, linear scale transformation(max-min, max, or sum). However, the normalization techniques have several shortcomings and do not adequately incorporate the practical matters. For example, if certain alternative has maximum value of data for certain criterion, this alternative is considered as the solution in original process. However, if the maximum value of data does not satisfy the required degree of fulfillment of designer or customer, the alternative may not be considered as the solution. To solve this problem, this paper employs the desirability function that has been proposed in our previous research. The desirability function uses upper limit and lower limit in normalization process. The threshold points for establishing upper or lower limits let us know what degree of fulfillment of designer or customer is. This paper proposes a new design optimization technique for multi-characteristic design problem by integrating the Taguchi method and our desirability functions. Finally, the proposed technique is able to obtain the optimal solution that is robust to multi-characteristic performances.

A New Process for the Requirements Based Aerospace System Design and Optimization (요구도 기반 항공우주 시스템 강건최적설계 기법 연구)

  • Park, Hyeong-Uk;Lee, Jae-Woo;Byun, Yung-Hwan;Chung, Joon;Behdinan, Karman
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.255-266
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    • 2009
  • In this study, a robust aerospace system design process for the aerospace system is developed by considering the uncertainties of user requirements, manufacturing errors, and operational environment variation. User requirements are analyzed and quantified by decision making models and system engineering methods to select alternative concepts which satisfies the various requirements. Robust design and optimization method is applied to derive the robust solution of the selected system. First, a variance of objective function is calculated, and a mean value and a variance of target value are determined by the deterministic design optimization results of the system. A robust optimum design formulation is then needed to derive the robust solution that minimizes the variance of the response and moves the mean values to the target value. It is applied to Very Light Jet (VLJ) aircraft to which much attention is paid recently in civil aerospace market.