• Title/Summary/Keyword: Robust 모형

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Estimation of kerosene demand function using time series data (시계열 자료를 이용한 등유수요함수 추정)

  • Jeong, Dong-Won;Hwang, Byoung-Soh;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.245-249
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    • 2013
  • This paper attempts to estimate the kerosene demand function in Korea over the period 1981-2012. As the kerosene demand function provides us information on the pattern of consumer's kerosene consumption, it can be usefully utilized in predicting the impact of policy variables such as kerosene price and forecasting the demand for kerosene. We apply least absolute deviations and least median squares estimation methods as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the kerosene demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the kerosene demand are estimated to be -0.468 and 0.409, respectively. They are statisitically significant at the 1% level. The short-run price and income elasticities portray that demand for kerosene is price- and income-inelastic. This implies that the kerosene is indispensable goods to human-being's life, thus the kerosene demand would not be promptly adjusted to responding to price and/or income change. However, long-run price and income elasticities reveal that the demand for kerosene is price- and income-elastic in the long-run.

Conceptual Design of Automatic Control Algorithm for VMSs (VMS 자동제어 알고리즘 설계)

  • 박은미
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.177-183
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    • 2002
  • Current state-of-the-art of VMS control is based upon simple knowledge-based inference engine with message set and each message's priority. And R&Ds of the VMS control are focused on the accurate detection and estimation of traffic condition of the subject roadways. However VMS display itself cannot achieve a desirable traffic allocation among alternative routes in the network In this context, VMS display strategy is the most crucial part in the VMS control. VMS itself has several limitations in its nature. It is generally known that VMS causes overreaction and concentration problems, which may be more serious in urban network than highway network because diversion should be more easily made in urban network. A feedback control algorithm is proposed in this paper to address the above-mentioned issues. It is generally true that feedback control approach requires low computational effort and is less sensitive to models inaccuracy and disturbance uncertainties. Major features of the proposed algorithm are as follows: Firstly, a regulator is designed to attain system optimal traffic allocation among alternative routes for each VMS in the network. Secondly, strategic messages should be prepared to realize the desirable traffic allocation, that is, output of the above regulator. VMS display strategy module is designed in this context. To evaluate Probable control benefit and to detect logical errors of the Proposed feedback algorithm, a offline simulation test is performed using real network in Daejon, Korea.

An Analysis on TV VOD Demand: Focusing on Time Series Analysis (TV VOD 수요 분석: 시계열분석을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Ki Jin;Choi, Sung-Hee
    • Review of Culture and Economy
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.59-88
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    • 2018
  • This study examines demand of the Korean TV VOD using monthly aggregate data and time series analysis models. In particular, the impact of box office attendance, number of IPTV subscribers, income and price of substitutes on TV VOD market is analyzed. Data on TV VOD download during the period 2013 January to 2018 June are used for the empirical analysis. TV VOD demand shows lower level of seasonality than box office attendance and the share of monthly top1 movie in TV VOD platform is also lower than that of box office attendance. The relationship between a movie's holdback and box office performance does not seem consistent. The empirical result of ARDL model reveals that in the short-run box office attendance, number of IPTV subscribers and price of substitutes have significant impact on TV VOD demand. The result on the long-term relation shows that income is the only determinant of TV VOD demand. The impact of box office attendance on TV VOD is not shown to be robust both for the short-term and long-term.

The Effects of Socioeconomic Deprivation on Public Library Book Circulation: A Community-level Study (지역사회 사회경제적 박탈이 공공도서관 대출 책수에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jongwook;Kang, Woojin;Lee, Myeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.219-243
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    • 2021
  • This study analyzes the effects of community-level socioeconomic deprivations (SED) on public libraries' book circulation in the Seoul metropolitan area. The study design draws upon the theory of local information landscapes, which explains the relationship between community characteristics and information behavior. Using four-year (2015-2018) open government and public library circulation data, we constructed a socioeconomic deprivation index by adjusting a multi-dimensional deprivation index and generated other variables. Multi-level robust linear regression models were used to examine the relationship between SED and public library circulation. In addition, we tested the moderating effects of the library collection size and the number of libraries per unit area, respectively, on library circulation. The results show that there is a significant negative relationship between socioeconomic deprivation and library circulation rate. Also, we found that the size of the library collection negatively moderates the effects of SED in areas with a large number of books, and the number of libraries per unit area was positvely related to the library book circulation, not moderating the effects of SED. These findings suggest that public libraries and policymakers should consider community characteristics in designing strategic plans for public libraries.

An Exploration of Somatization among Korean Older Immigrants in the U.S. (신체증후군에 대한 탐색적 연구: 한인 노인 이민자를 중심으로)

  • Ahn, Joonhee
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.1179-1200
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    • 2008
  • Knowledge about somatization (somatic manifestation of psychological distress symptoms) among immigrant populations is limited. While several studies have recognized somatization as a culturally distinctive expression of depression amongst older Korean immigrant population, somatization has not been incorporated into the comprehensive empirical model for depression of this population. In order to improve our general understanding of the phenomenon, the objective of this study is to empirically investigate principal contributing factors of somatization as well as inter-relationships among them. Data were collected from a cross-sectional community survey of 234 older Korean immigrants ($$age{\geq_-}55$$) in the New York metropolitan area. The statistical methodology employed a robust hierarchical regression procedure that iteratively downweights outliers. The results indicated that living arrangement, greater numbers of physical illnesses, and depression were significant explanatory factors of somatization. Furthermore, physical illness had a significant joint effect with perception of health on somatization, which confirms that positive perception of health exerts a moderating effect on the relationship between physical illness and somatization. The knowledge obtained from this study will contribute toward extending our knowledge on somatization and implementing more culturally sensitive mental health services for this population.

Denoising Self-Attention Network for Mixed-type Data Imputation (혼합형 데이터 보간을 위한 디노이징 셀프 어텐션 네트워크)

  • Lee, Do-Hoon;Kim, Han-Joon;Chun, Joonghoon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.135-144
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    • 2021
  • Recently, data-driven decision-making technology has become a key technology leading the data industry, and machine learning technology for this requires high-quality training datasets. However, real-world data contains missing values for various reasons, which degrades the performance of prediction models learned from the poor training data. Therefore, in order to build a high-performance model from real-world datasets, many studies on automatically imputing missing values in initial training data have been actively conducted. Many of conventional machine learning-based imputation techniques for handling missing data involve very time-consuming and cumbersome work because they are applied only to numeric type of columns or create individual predictive models for each columns. Therefore, this paper proposes a new data imputation technique called 'Denoising Self-Attention Network (DSAN)', which can be applied to mixed-type dataset containing both numerical and categorical columns. DSAN can learn robust feature expression vectors by combining self-attention and denoising techniques, and can automatically interpolate multiple missing variables in parallel through multi-task learning. To verify the validity of the proposed technique, data imputation experiments has been performed after arbitrarily generating missing values for several mixed-type training data. Then we show the validity of the proposed technique by comparing the performance of the binary classification models trained on imputed data together with the errors between the original and imputed values.

Estimation of Spatial Distribution Using the Gaussian Mixture Model with Multivariate Geoscience Data (다변량 지구과학 데이터와 가우시안 혼합 모델을 이용한 공간 분포 추정)

  • Kim, Ho-Rim;Yu, Soonyoung;Yun, Seong-Taek;Kim, Kyoung-Ho;Lee, Goon-Taek;Lee, Jeong-Ho;Heo, Chul-Ho;Ryu, Dong-Woo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.353-366
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    • 2022
  • Spatial estimation of geoscience data (geo-data) is challenging due to spatial heterogeneity, data scarcity, and high dimensionality. A novel spatial estimation method is needed to consider the characteristics of geo-data. In this study, we proposed the application of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) among machine learning algorithms with multivariate data for robust spatial predictions. The performance of the proposed approach was tested through soil chemical concentration data from a former smelting area. The concentrations of As and Pb determined by ex-situ ICP-AES were the primary variables to be interpolated, while the other metal concentrations by ICP-AES and all data determined by in-situ portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) were used as auxiliary variables in GMM and ordinary cokriging (OCK). Among the multidimensional auxiliary variables, important variables were selected using a variable selection method based on the random forest. The results of GMM with important multivariate auxiliary data decreased the root mean-squared error (RMSE) down to 0.11 for As and 0.33 for Pb and increased the correlations (r) up to 0.31 for As and 0.46 for Pb compared to those from ordinary kriging and OCK using univariate or bivariate data. The use of GMM improved the performance of spatial interpretation of anthropogenic metals in soil. The multivariate spatial approach can be applied to understand complex and heterogeneous geological and geochemical features.

Analyzing the impact on logistics outsourcing success for Ugandan food processing firms through third-party logistics service providers' capabilities (제3자 물류 서비스공급자의 역량을 통한 우간다 식품 가공업체의 물류 아웃소싱 성공에 대한 영향 분석)

  • Alioni, Christopher;Park, Byungin
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.45-64
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    • 2022
  • Due to the recent and rapid globalization, logistics outsourcing has expanded globally and is seen as a means of creating a robust logistics system. However, many businesses continue to have difficulties with their logistics outsourcing contracts, which compels them to reinstate the logistics function for internal management. This study aims to investigate how organizational capabilities of logistics service providers (LSPs), notably flexibility, integration, innovation, and technological capabilities, impact on the logistics outsourcing success in Ugandan food processing firms. Using a structured questionnaire survey, cross-sectional data collected from 211 food processing firms in Kampala - Uganda were analyzed by partial least squares-structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) using SmartPLS 3.3.7 software to examine the theorized relationships. The study findings revealed that whereas the technological and innovation capabilities positively and significantly influence logistics outsourcing success, the effects of flexibility and integration capabilities were insignificant. Additionally, the importance-performance map analysis (IPMA) reveals that the technological capability is a priority capability, followed by the innovation capability if logistics outsourcing success is to be achieved. Conversely, flexibility and integration capabilities are of low priority.

A Exploratory Study on The Determinants of Youth Facilities Visits (청소년시설이용에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kim, Sin-Young
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.129-134
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    • 2023
  • This study purports to investigate potential factors in various levels that affect respondents' use of youth facilities. Those levels include individual, family, and school. The data from 「2021 Youth Survey on Human Right Conditions」 will be analyzed. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis shows several results. First of all, respondents' age and level of human rights related information strongly influence respondents' use of youth facilities. Secondly, the analysis also shows that subjective well -being, abusive language and physical punishment from school faculty, and experience of human rights violation in schools affect the level of respondents' use of youth facilities. The order of effect sizes among significant variables are as follows; respondents' age, level of human rights related information, subjective well -being, abusive language and physical punishment from school faculty, and experience of human rights violation in schools. The independent variables in the model explain roughly 20 percent of whole variation of dependents variable.

Technology Innovation Activity and Default Risk (기술혁신활동이 부도위험에 미치는 영향 : 한국 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장 상장기업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Su
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2009
  • Technology innovation activity plays a pivotal role in constructing the entrance barrier for other firms and making process improvement and new product. and these activities give a profit increase and growth to firms. Thus, technology innovation activity can reduce the default risk of firms. However, technology innovation activity can also increase the firm's default risk because technology innovation activity requires too much investment of the firm's resources and has the uncertainty on success. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of technology innovation activity on the default risk of firms. This study's sample consists of manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Securities Market and The Kosdaq Market from January 1,2000 to December 31, 2008. This study makes use of R&D intensity as an proxy variable of technology innovation activity. The default probability which proxies the default risk of firms is measured by the Merton's(l974) debt pricing model. The main empirical results are as follows. First, from the empirical results, it is found that technology innovation activity has a negative and significant effect on the default risk of firms independent of the Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market. In other words, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms. Second, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms independent of firm size, firm age, and credit score. Third, the results of robust analysis also show that technology innovation activity is the important factor which decreases the default risk of firms. These results imply that a manager must show continuous interest and investment in technology innovation activity of one's firm. And a policymaker also need design an economic policy to promote the technology innovation activity of firms.

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