• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.3-30
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• 2011

When the European Union countries (EU27) are viewed as the composition between the old member countries (EU15) and the new member states (NMS12), the statistics exhibit that the EU15 is the largest trade partner of the NMS12. According to the Korea-EU FTA agreement, the existing patterns of trade among the EU15, the NMS12, and Korea may create not only the increase in trade opportunity between the NMS12 and Korea, but also the higher rivalry threat on export from the NMS12 to the EU15 destination due to the potential increase in export from Korea to the EU15 market. This research examines in both potential impacts at the 3-digit level of SITC Rev.3 industry, in the point of view of the NMS12. Various conventional trade indices are employed in the study. However, the existing trade index exhibits the limitation for measuring the different degree of rivalry threat on exports of two different exporters in the same export destination. Hence, this study develops a new trade index, the so-called Rivalry Threat Index (RTI), to measure the export competition between the NMS12 and Korea in the EU15 destination. The results indicate that from the point of view of the NMS12, the EU-Korea FTA agreement may cause Korea acts as a trade partner and as an export competitor simultaneously.