• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk science

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A Study on the Risk Assessment for Urban Railway Systems Using an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS) (적응형 뉴로-퍼지(ANFIS)를 이용한 도시철도 시스템 위험도 평가 연구)

  • Tak, Kil Hun;Koo, Jeong Seo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.78-87
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    • 2022
  • In the risk assessment of urban railway systems, a hazard log is created by identifying hazards from accident and failure data. Then, based on a risk matrix, evaluators analyze the frequency and severity of the occurrence of the hazards, conduct the risk assessment, and then establish safety measures for the risk factors prior to risk control. However, because subjective judgments based on the evaluators' experiences affect the risk assessment results, a more objective and automated risk assessment system must be established. In this study, we propose a risk assessment model in which an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which is combined in artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy inference system (FIS), is applied to the risk assessment of urban railway systems. The newly proposed model is more objective and automated, alleviating the limitations of risk assessments that use a risk matrix. In addition, the reliability of the model was verified by comparing the risk assessment results and risk control priorities between the newly proposed ANFIS-based risk assessment model and the risk assessment using a risk matrix. Results of the comparison indicate that a high level of accuracy was demonstrated in the risk assessment results of the proposed model, and uncertainty and subjectivity were mitigated in the risk control priority.

Risk Sharing in a Supply Chain (공급사슬에서의 위험공유)

  • Ahn, Seongje
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2003
  • This paper suggests that the profit sharing contract can be Pareto optimal for both supplier and the purchaser. It is shown that Pareto optimal risk sharing contract can be obtained even though the decisions are made in a decentralized manner. The effect of risk attitude of the members of the supply chain is discussed. We examined various aspects of the risk sharing contract such as risk altitude, bargaining power, and cost of information system. The different risk attitude changes the optimal parameters and decision variables. Especially, we proved that, when both the supplier and the purchaser are risk averse, the purchaser orders less quantity than when the one is risk neutral and the other is risk averse. If the fixed cost for the information system is big enough to satisfy a certain condition, it is Pareto optimal not to share the profit and the purchaser takes all the risk even though he is risk averse.

A Study on Risk Perception Characteristics for Food Risk Elements of University Students in Yeungnam Region (영남 지역 대학생들의 식품 위해요인에 대한 위험 지각 특성 연구)

  • Kim, Hyochung;Kim, Meera
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.450-458
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the levels of risk perception characteristics for food risk elements using a psychometric paradigm from 298 university students in Yeungnam region, Korea, by a self-administered questionnaire. The respondents showed the highest level of risk concern about radioactive contaminated foods and the lowest level about GM (genetically modified) foods. In the risk perception characteristics for food risk elements, they perceived radioactive contaminated foods as a catastrophic, worried, new, and uncontrollable risk. In addition, they regarded food additives and foodborne illness as a chronic, controllable, old, and scientifically and individually known risk. According to the results of the factor analysis for risk perception characteristics, dread and unknown were categorized. In the risk perception map, mad cow disease, heavy metal contaminated foods, and radioactive contaminated foods were considered as a dreaded and unknown risk, whereas pesticide residues and GM foods were perceived as a less dreaded and unknown risk. Additionally, food additives and foodborne illness were regarded as a less dreaded and known risk and endocrine disruptors and avian influenza as a dreaded and known risk. These results imply that risk perception characteristics of consumers should be considered to establish strategies for risk communication in food science.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Method Based on Feature Selection and Artificial Neural Network

  • Xie, Nan-Nan;Hu, Liang;Li, Tai-Hui
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.23
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    • pp.10539-10542
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    • 2015
  • A method to predict the risk of lung cancer is proposed, based on two feature selection algorithms: Fisher and ReliefF, and BP Neural Networks. An appropriate quantity of risk factors was chosen for lung cancer risk prediction. The process featured two steps, firstly choosing the risk factors by combining two feature selection algorithms, then providing the predictive value by neural network. Based on the method framework, an algorithm LCRP (lung cancer risk prediction) is presented, to reduce the amount of risk factors collected in practical applications. The proposed method is suitable for health monitoring and self-testing. Experiments showed it can actually provide satisfactory accuracy under low dimensions of risk factors.

Comparative Study of Regional-scale Ecological Risk Assessment used in Developed Countries (지역단위 생태위해성평가 선진국사례 분석)

  • Shin, Yu-Jin;Lee, Woo-Mi;An, Youn-Joo
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2010
  • Ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been used to establish environmental quality standards or evaluate ecological risk in site-specific areas. The scope of ERA was expanded based on regions, and the concept of regional-scale ecological risk assessment was recently introduced in developed countries. In the present study, regional ERA approaches of relative risk model (RRM), contaminants in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems (CATS) model, and procedure for ecological tired assessment of risks (PETAR) in advanced countries were extensively investigated. Regional ERA was compared with traditional ERA process. Stressors, receptor and response in traditional ERA were replaced with sources of stressors, habitats, and ecological impacts, respectively in regional ERA. This study introduces the concept and assessment process of regional ERA, and provides a wide perspective how the relative ERA could be applied in Korean ecosystem.

Clinical Preventive Dental and Dental Hygiene Practice by Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) (Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) 모형에 따른 임상 예방치과 및 치위생 진료)

  • Cho, Young-Sik
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.545-557
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    • 2012
  • Dental caries is biofilm induced disease throughout life and is recognized significant oral health problem. This article reviewed new trends in dental caries management by risk assessment, including history, protocol/guideline, and collaborated model. Dental caries prevention and treatment according to caries management by risk assessment (CAMBRA) model is patient-centered, risk-based, evidence-based practice. Team approach is necessary and clinician need to integrate science, practice and product. Dental hygienist take a important role in implementing CAMBRA. CAMBRA model could be incorporated into clinical dental hygiene education based on dental hygiene process of care as standard of dental hygiene practice and education. Dentist and dental hygienist able to provide scientific and ethical care managing dental caries by risk assessment.

THE PRICE OF RISK IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS: CONTINGENCY APPROXIMATION MODEL (CAM)

  • S. Laryea;E. Badu;I. K. Dontwi
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2007.03a
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    • pp.106-118
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    • 2007
  • Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and also help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

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A Study on Factory Building Fire Risk Reduction Management (공장건물의 화재리스크 경감방안에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Eui-Soo;Kang, Kyung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2008
  • This study is carried out for the fire safety of the factory building, the fire risk reduction measure in compliance with an example approached in fire risk reduction systematically, contribute to reduce the fire risk. The analytical fire risk process of discovering, identifying, estimating and evaluating risk and control measure as risk reduction measures are core concept, applies loss prevention with loss control techniques. The painting process in the workplace where the fire hazard and death accident accompanies coexists. Loss prevention problem of creation prevention of dangerous atmosphere at workplace is health and human services problem of normal circumstances, must be inspected with problem of combustible gases at the time of fire explosion. Static electricity measure accomplished the risk control process thoroughly as the fire risk reduction process model with the ignition sources measure which is presented. Fire risk from within organizing will be able to classify with each field by detailedly but risk treatment process will be able to apply basically all the same concept. Consequently about risk management example from before, this study is proposed risk management techniques that standardized rightly in the actual condition of organization with one plan, with discovery of fire risk, the feedback process in compliance with a fire risk reduction and the review which control the result is joint responsibility of engineer, technical expert and manager as part of safety management to practice with the fact must be supervised.

Navigation safety domain and collision risk index for decision support of collision avoidance of USVs

  • Zhou, Jian;Ding, Feng;Yang, Jiaxuan;Pei, Zhengqiang;Wang, Chenxu;Zhang, Anmin
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.340-350
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    • 2021
  • This paper proposes a decision support model for USVs to improve the accuracy of collision avoidance decision-making. It is formed by Navigation Safety Domain (NSD) and domain-based Collision Risk Index (CRI), capable of determining the collision stage and risk between multiple ships. The NSD is composed of a warning domain and a forbidden domain, which is constructed under the constraints of COLREGs (International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea). The proposed domain based CRI takes the radius of NSD in various encounter situations as threshold parameters. It is found that the value of collision risk in any directions can be calculated, including actual value and risk threshold. A catamaran USV and 6 given vessels are taken as study objects to validate the proposed model. It is found that the judgment of collision stage is accurate and the azimuth range of risk exists can be detected, hence the ships can take direct and effective collision avoidance measures. According to the relation between the actual value of CRI and risk threshold, the decision support rules are summarized, and the specific terms of COLREGs to be followed in each encounter situation are given.

A Study on the Fire Risk Assessment : Based on the Proposal of a Fire Risk Assessment Processor Considering the Reality in Korea (화재위험도 평가에 대한 연구 : 국내 현실을 고려한 화재위험도 평가 프로세서 제안을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jong Hwa
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2021
  • Recently, advanced countries assessment the risk of fire to prevent large-scale damage to high-rise buildings, In addition, performance-Based design, which is a fire risk assessment, is being conducted in Korea to prevent massive damage to high-rise buildings. However, unlike advanced countries, fire risk assessment in Korea is subject to fire risk assessment only for objects subject to consent from fire-fighting facilities such as building permits, When building engineers and fire-fighting engineers assessment the risk of fire, It has always been discussed because the results vary depending on which part of the evaluation is focused between economic feasibility and safety. Therefore, in this study, we would like to propose a fire risk assessment process suitable for domestic conditions by comparing the process of performance-based design, which is a domestic fire risk assessment, and the process of Iso/TC 16732 which is an overseas fire risk assessment.