• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk scenario

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A Decision Support System for foreign exchange risk management (외환위험 헷징을 위한 의사결정 지원시스템)

  • 최생림;장석권
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.161-184
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this paper is to suggest a DSS(Decision Support System) framework for managing exchange risks involved in international transactions. To this aim, a number of hedging strategies were suggested and analyzed in their pros and cons. Also, developed were a system architechture and various functional modules for implementing the suggested foreign exchange risk management system and application scenario was demonstrated. Finally, future research areas were indicated.

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A Study on Fire Risk Assessment by the Consideration of Individual Evacuating Path Line (개인별 대피경로를 고려한 화재위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Rie, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2007
  • In this study, we provided an index for the quantitative and systematic performance based fire risk assessment. A complex cinema was adopted for the fire scenario and the fire simulation was carried out by using FDS. Also evacuation time was calculated by using SIMULEX. We obtained a big different fire risk assessment result by the focus on the between space basis and the time basis. As a result of this study, performance based fire risk assessment should be performed on the basis of individual evacuee's path line.

Development of Risk Evaluation Models for Railway Casualty Accidents (철도사상 사고위험도 평가 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Chan-Woo;Kim, Min-Su;Wang, Jong-Bae;Choi, Don-Bum
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2008.06a
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    • pp.1499-1504
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    • 2008
  • This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

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The study of development of quantitative risk assesment program for the road tunnel (도로터널 위험도 평가프로그램 개발에 관한 연구(I))

  • Yoo, Ji-Oh;Shin, Hyun-Jun;Rie, Dong-Ho
    • Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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    • 2006.06a
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    • pp.460-467
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    • 2006
  • Some large accidents in tunnels in recent years, such as Mont Blanc, Gotthard and Tauern tunnels, have lead to an increasing attention for tunnel safety and necessity of tool for quantitative risk assesment of road tunnel. And the purpose of this study is to develop the quantitative risk assesment tool for the application of road tunnel. The objectives of this paper are as follows : (1) analyze of traffic accident rates in tunnel, (2) make out scenario for fire accidents, (3) develop the evacuation model and FED calculation model, (4) Present the results from quantitative risk assesment for the model tunnel according with the fire heat release rates and distances of cross passage.

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Effect of Hydroelectric Power Plant Discharge on the Turbidity Distribution in Dae-Cheong Dam Reservoir (발전방류구 위치변화에 따른 저수지내 탁수변화 -대청댐을 대상으로-)

  • Seo, Se-Deok;Lee, Jae-Yil;Ha, Sung-Ryong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.227-234
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    • 2011
  • In the study, CE-QUAL-W2 was used and its examination and correction were conducted targeting 2001 and 2003 when the condition of rainfall was contradicted. Using the proved model in 2003, a scenario was implemented with management of locations for dewatering outlets and actual data for dam management in 1987 when inflow and outflow level were almost same. In case of the scenario which the location of dewatering outlets was 5m higher than usual location, exclusion efficiency for turbid water inflow at the beginning of precipitation was good. In case of the scenario which the location of dewatering outlets was 10m lower than usual location, exclusion efficiency for excluding turbid water remained in a reservoir after the end of precipitation. However, the scenario applying dam management data in 1987, exclusion efficiency was relatively low. In the scenario, power-generating water release spot at EL.57m for first four days after the beginning of precipitation, EL.52m for 5th to 8th and EL.42m from 9th days. An analysis of the scenario reveals that both excessive days exceeded 30 NTU and average turbidity levels were decreased comparing before and after the alteration on outlets. The average turbidity levels were decreased by minimum of 55% to maximum of 70% and 30NTU exceeding days were decreased by 45 days at maximum. Also, since it could exclude most of turbid water in a reservoir before the destatifcation, the risk for turbid water evenly distributed in a reservoir along with turn-over could be decreased as well.

A Study on Trainees' Awareness of Collision Risks (실습생의 충돌위험도 인식에 관한 조사 연구)

  • Kim, So-Ra;Park, Sang-Won;Sim, Hyo-Sang;Kim, Jong-Sung;Park, Young-Soo;Kim, Dae-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.488-498
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    • 2022
  • Collision prevention education, which takes up the longest time among officer training courses, is one of the most important training and practice courses for trainees. The purpose of this study is to investigate the trainees' perception of collision risk in order to develop a systematic and quantified collision prevention training course. For this, factors for judging collision risk were derived from previous studies, and each trainee's perspective on collision risk was derived for each scenario through a questionnaire survey for trainees. Using the PARK Model, the same was compared with the collision risk perceived by the officer. Resultingly, it was found that trainees and of icers consider the distance to other ships the most important among collision risk factors. Additionally, although the risk trends of two groups for each scenario were similar, the average risk of trainees (5.39) was higher than that of officers (5.20). However, the trainees perceived a lower level of risk than the officers in certain scenarios, and this is judged to be the result of the trainees' lack of navigational experience. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the development of collision prevention practice education by quantitatively suggesting the difference between the collision risk of trainees and officers respectively.

FREES : Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Expert System (Fuzzy 이론을 활용한 건설프로젝트 리스크 분석 및 평가 시스템)

  • Cho Ick-Rae;Park Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.1 no.1 s.1
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2000
  • This study proposes FREES(Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Expert System) for analyzing and evaluating risks occurring during the construction process. The feasibility of this system model was tested by virtual scenario. For the development of the model, at first, risk breakdown structure was established based on risks identified in the existing researches, that is quantitative and qualitative. FREES can reflect human cognition process in the risk analysis and evaluation by adopting artificial intelligence fuzzy theory, differentiating the existing quantitative analysis model. The FREES can be applied to all the project phases from planning to operation & maintenance stage.

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A Study on the Risk Assessment and Reduction of Initial Construction Cost in a Biosafety Laboratory According to Improvement of Supply and Exhaust Method (급배기 방식 개선에 따른 생물안전 밀폐시설의 Risk Assessment와 초기 건설비 저감에 대한 연구)

  • Hwang, Ji Hyun;Hong, Jin Kwan;Ju, Young Duk
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.25 no.10
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    • pp.534-539
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    • 2013
  • In general, entire supply air of the BSL3 laboratory should be vented to the outside for its biosafety and the air conditioning system should always be operating to maintain a room pressure difference. In this regard, annual energy consumption is approximately five or ten times greater than the magnitude of the office building. In addition, to adjust room pressure difference to the set value efficiently, the supply and exhaust duct system are installed in each room of the BSL3 lab. Thus, initial construction cost is extremely high. In this study, multizone simulation is performed to estimate maintaining the appropriate room pressure difference in the case of changing model A (each room supply and exhaust system) to model B (each zone supply and exhaust system) for verification of the BSL3 lab biosafety. Also, in the case of these two models, the multizone simulation for three kinds of biohazard scenario is performed as part of risk assessment. The analysis of initial construction cost of two models is conducted for comparison. According to the studies, initial construction cost of model B is less than about 22% of existing model A. Moreover, biosafety of the BSL3 lab is still maintaining in the case of the two models.

Analysis of a Naval Warship Accident and Related Risk (해군함정 사고사례 및 위험도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Daewoon;Park, Youngsoo;Choi, Kwang-young;Park, Sangwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.24 no.7
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    • pp.863-869
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    • 2018
  • Due to recent changes in the maritime traffic environment, naval warship accidents are constantly occurring. Especially in 2017, serious loss of life was caused by a US navy destroyer accident. The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of naval warship accident cases and construct an accident scenario by using naval training materials, adjudication of naval warship accidents and US navy destroyer accident reports. Based on the surveyed data, the status of accidents was identified and cases were analyzed. We reproduced 17 accident cases in accordance with accident reproduction procedure and constructed naval warship accident scenarios. As a result of analyzing the CPA, TCPA and PARK model for risk, reproducing 17 naval ship accident cases, collision risk increased on average 5-6 minutes before an accident. The result of this study represents basic data for naval and simulation education materials, contributing to the prevention of marine accidents.