• 자동차안전학회지
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.43-52
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• 2023

When a children's school bus stops on the road, the operator enables an amber flashing light (indicating stopping or slowing) or a red flashing light (indicating that children are getting on and off). Drivers of vehicles passing by the stopped school bus, as well as vehicles in adjacent lanes to the school bus must stop temporarily. However, many drivers are not aware of the laws and do not comply with them, so children are exposed to an increased risk of being hit, especially at night as the color recognition of the vehicle is significantly lower than during the day. In our experiments, messages and shapes using light were projected to the front and rear of a parked school bus, in addition to its red lights flashing.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제27권5_6호
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• pp.1073-1086
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• 2009

This paper considers the problems of martingale measures and risk-minimizing hedging strategies in the market with restricted information. By constructing a general restricted information market model, the explicit relation of arbitrage and the minimal martingale measure between two different information markets are discussed. Also a link among all equivalent martingale measures under restricted information market is given. As an example of restricted information markets, this paper constitutes a jump-diffusion process model and presents a risk minimizing problem under different information. Through $It\hat{o}$ formula and projection results in Schweizer[13], the explicit optimal strategy for different market information are given.

• Archives of Plastic Surgery
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• 제48권1호
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• pp.44-48
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• 2021

Previously reported nipple-areolar complex reconstruction (NAR) methods involve multiple incisions and wide skin redraping, which increase retraction forces and heighten the risk of nipple-areolar complex (NAC) flattening. We introduce a NAR method using the long V-Y advancement technique that can overcome these disadvantages. A V-shaped flap is designed with the width of the flap base 4-5 mm larger than the diameter of the normal nipple. The flap length is designed to be at least 2.5 times its width. Dissection is performed to the top of the artificial dermal matrix or muscle layer. The nipple is constructed with the same projection as the contralateral side by folding the elevated flap. The tip of the elevated flap is apposed in the middle of the donor defect to minimize the deformity during donor site closure. A 3-point skin suture is applied to the upper third of the folded flap to mold its shape. Using this long V-Y advancement technique, we successfully decreased skin tension in NAC flaps and improved the maintenance of reconstructed nipple projection. The long V-Y advancement technique provides an easy, simple NAR method, effectively maintaining longer nipple projections and reducing breast deformities, especially in Asian women with relatively large nipples.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.331-346
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• 1996

Exploring the epidemiological trend of HIV/AIDS is required for making the national AIDS policy. In this study, the trend of HIV/AIDS incidence, rout of transmission and some characteristics of AIDS for the past 11 years in Korea using the reported cases from the national STD screening scheme were reviewed. Based on the results, the trend of main route of transmission according to the year was established by stage and the HIV/AIDS cases in this year was estimated and that to the year 2000 was projected by 'Epimodel' programme. The results were as follows : 1. Of the total infected persons, 76% were in their twenties and thirties, socioeconomically and sexually active age groups. While the transmission by sexual contact overseas was decreasing, the infection through domestic heterosexual and homosexual contact was increasing. 2. In the middle of the 1980's, the infected persons were mainly prostitutes infected through heterosexual contact with the HIV positive foreigner in this county(stage 1). And in the late of the 1980's the main source of infection was the sexual contact overseas and the domestic heterosexual contact(stage 2). Since the early of the 1990's, the infection through the heterosexual contact with non-regular sexual partner in this country has increased rapidly(stage 3), which was the evidence of the possibility of HIV epidemics. After that, it was expected that the infection through the homosexual contacts, the heterosexual contacts with commercial sex workers outside and the non-regular sexual contact inside of this country would increase continuously. In the result, the occurrence of neonatal infection by vertical transmission was expected(stage4). 3. The number of HIV/AIDS was estimated at 572 to 2,313 and the projected number of HIV/AIDS to the you 2000 was around 5,800 including 627 AIDS patients. For the further study on the estimation and projection of HIV/AIDS, it was suggested that the sampling survey on the HIV infection rate in the high risk groups and the sentinel hospital surveillance system should be conducted.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.197-197
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• 2016

Forecasting future drought events in a region plays a major role in water management and risk assessment of drought occurrences. The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought's effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, a new probabilistic scheme is proposed to forecast droughts, in which a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) is used aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess the drought severity over the selected five stations in South Kore. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used for inference on the model parameters which includes several hidden states and the state specific parameters. We perform an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to derive a probabilistic forecast that considers uncertainties. Results showed that the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, are much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times over the study sites. In addition, the probabilistic forecast verification technique, which includes the ranked probability skill score and the relative operating characteristic, is performed on the proposed model to check the performance. It is found that the HMM-RCP provides a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought severity categories, even with a long lead time. The overall results indicate that the proposed HMM-RCP shows a powerful skill for probabilistic drought forecasting.

• 보존과학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.505-515
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• 2021

포항 달전리 주상절리(천연기념물 제415호, 이하 주상절리)에 대한 사면안정성 평가 및 낙석 시뮬레이션을 통하여 낙석의 최대 에너지, 도약높이, 이동거리를 산출하였으며, 낙석 위험 범위를 설정하였다. 주상절리가 분포하는 사면의 경우 왼쪽(SW)에서 오른쪽(NE)에 이르기까지 93.79°, 131.99°, 165.54°, 259.84°의 경사방향을 가지며 전체적으로 부채꼴의 형상을 하고 있다. 이러한 사면의 경사방향을 따라 4구간으로 구분하였으며, 각 구간별 노출되어 있는 주상절리의 단면에서 개별적인 불연속면의 방향성을 측정한 결과 1구간은 125개, 2구간은 261개, 3구간은 262개, 4구간은 43개로 확인된다. 평사투영법을 이용한 각 구간별 사면 안정성 평가 결과, 평면 및 전도파괴 영역에 해당되나 이는 노출된 주상절리면의 개별 방향성에 대한 해석 결과로 주상절리에 대하여 평면 및 전도파괴의 가능성을 진단하기 어렵기 때문에 현재에도 발생되고 있는 낙석으로부터 위험 가능성을 평가하는 것이 바람직한 것으로 판단된다. 또한 낙석 시뮬레이션을 통해 측정된 낙석의 최대 이동거리는 약 66 m이며, 낙석 위험 범위는 사면 아래 전 영역이 해당됨을 알 수 있다. 따라서 이러한 낙석의 거동은 지형학적 요인에 의해 다양한 방향으로 굴러떨어져 낙하지점을 예측하기 힘들기 때문에 낙석으로부터 안정성 확보를 위한 낙석 방지시설 설치를 제안하고자 한다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.91-105
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• 2019

The paper aims to combine balance sheet analysis at the firm level with the International Monetary Fund's public debt sustainability assessment framework to assess state-owned enterprises' (SOE) leverage as a contingent liability to the public sector. Based on company data and the interest coverage ratio as a measure of debt at risk, aggregate baseline scenarios are projected to gauge the magnitude of SOE debt as a contingency. SOE's financial and debt ratios are first bootstrapped to generate firm-level distributions and then averaged into a fan chart of the economy-wide SOE contingent liability. Applied to the People's Republic of China as an example, the study finds that by the end of 2015 SOE leverage had grown to a substantial liability. However arbitrary the assumptions underlying these projections, it would appear that even if authorities had to mop up as much as 20% of SOE debt at risk gone bad, this would have been manageable at roughly 2.7% of the gross domestic product in 2016 or 5.5% by 2021. This projection framework is fully amenable to alternative assumptions and settings, which makes it a useful analytical tool to monitor contingent liabilities from non-financial corporate debt that have been building in emerging and advanced economies alike.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.121-126
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• 2014

본 논문은 저가형 GPS 수신 모듈에 DGPS 서비스를 적용하기 위한 방안으로 NMEA GPGSV 데이터의 위성 배치 정보에 포함된 위성 앙각과 방위각으로 관측 행렬을 구성한 후, 거리기반 보정정보를 위치영역으로 투영하여 기 산출된 위치 오차 벡터를 수정하는 방안을 제시하였다. 저가형 수신기인 U-blox LEA-5H 모델의 출력 데이터에 제안한 알고리즘을 적용한 결과 주 활동 시간인 낮 시간에 수평 오차 RMS를 1.8m에서 1m 이내로 줄였으며, 수직 정확도는 RMS 5.8m에서 1.4m로 75% 향상시킴을 확인하였다. 본 논문에서 제안하는 방식은 하드웨어의 변경없이 소프트웨어만으로 저가형 GPS의 성능을 DGPS 수준으로 향상시키는 기법이므로, 소비자와 제조사의 부담을 경감시켜 향후 제공될 고정밀 측위 서비스 인프라의 활성화에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.406-411
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• 2010

Objective : Esophageal/hypopharyngeal injury can be a disastrous complication of anterior cervical surgery. The amount of hypopharyngeal wall exposure within the surgical field has not been studied. The objective of this study is to evaluate the chance of hypopharyngeal wall exposure by measuring the amount of axial rotation of the thyroid cartilage (ARTC) and posterior projection of the hypopharynx (PPH). Methods : The study was prospectively designed using intraoperative ultrasonography. We measured the amount of ARTC in 27 cases. The amount of posterior projection of the hypopharynx (PPH) also was measured on pre-operative CT and compared at three different levels; the superior border of the thyroid cartilage (SBTC), cricoarytenoid joint and tip of inferior horn of the thyroid cartilage (TIHTC). The presence of air density was also checked on the same levels. Results : The angle of ARTC ranged from $-6.9^{\circ}$ to $29.7^{\circ}$, with no statistical difference between the upper and lower cervical group. The amount of PPH was increased caudally. Air densities were observed in 26 cases at the SBTC, but none at the TIHTC. Conclusion : Within the confines of the thyroid cartilage, surgeons are required to pay more attention to the status of hypopharynx/esophagus near the inferior horn of the thyroid cartilage. The hypopharynx/esophagus at the TIHTC is more likely to be exposed than at the upper and middle part of the thyroid cartilage, which may increase the risk of injury by pressure. Surgeons should be aware of the fact that the visceral component at C6-T1 surgeries also rotates as much as when the thyroid cartilage is engaged with a retractor. The esophagus at lower cervical levels warrants more careful retraction because it is not protected by the thyroid cartilage.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.152-163
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• 2020

실제적인 산사태 대응조치 단계 이전에 산사태위험지수를 통하여 산사태 발생 위험도를 모니터링하고 예측하기 위하여, LAMP의 고해상도 강우와 토양수분 예측 자료를 DB화 하고, 산사태 연구자들의 연구대상 지역에 적합한 지도 투영법과 공간해상도로 변환하는 절차를 ArcGIS를 이용하여 마련하였다. 이를 위하여 ERA5 재분석 강수와 농촌진흥청 10m 깊이 토양수분자료를 이용하여 LAMP 모델 강수 및 토양수분 자료를 정량적 그리고 정성적으로 평가하여 모델의 특성을 파악하였다. 또한, LAMP 강우, 토양수분, 증발산 등의 결과 자료를 10m 초고해상도 ArcGIS 포맷 자료로 변환하는 과정을 실무적으로 상세히 기술하여, 국내 지역에서 WRF 모델의 NetCDF 자료를 ArcGIS로 이용자들이 손쉽게 변환할 수 있도록 기술적 편의를 제공하였다.