• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.1-5
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• 2002

We consider the problem of optimal bandwidth choice for nonparametric classification, based on kernel density estimators, where the problem of interest is distinguishing between two univariate distributions. When the densities intersect at a single point, optimal bandwidth choice depends on curvatures of the densities at that point. The problem of empirical bandwidth selection and classifying data in the tails of a distribution are also addressed.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.15
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• pp.6283-6286
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• 2014

In patients with microscopic hematuria there is a need for better identification of those who are at greater risk of harbouring bladder tumors. The RisikoCheck(C) questionnaire has a strong correlation with the presence of urothelial carcinoma (UC) of the bladder and in combination with other available tests may help identify patients who require detailed clinical investigations due to increased risk of presence of bladder tumors. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of RisikoCheck(C) questionnaire together with NMP-22(R) (BladderChek(R)) as a point-of-care urine test in predicting the presence of bladder tumors in patients presenting with microscopic hematuria as the sole finding. In this multi-institutional prospective evaluation of 303 consecutive patients without a history of urothelial carcinoma (UC), RisikoCheck(C) risk group assessment, urinary tract imaging and cystourethroscopy as well as urine cytology and Nuclear Matrix Protein-22 (NMP-22 BladderChek) testing were performed where available. The sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive values (PPV) for the risk adapted approach were calculated. All patients underwent cystoscopy, and tumors were detected in 18 (5.9%). Urine cytology and NMP-22 was positive for malignancy in 9 (3.2%) and 12 (7.5%) of patients, respectively. A total of 43 (14%) patients were in the high risk group according to the RisikoCheck(C) questionnaire. The sensitivity and specificity of the questionnaire in detecting a bladder tumor was 61.5 % and 84.0 % in the high risk group. In patients with either a positive NMP-22 test or high risk category RisikoCheck(C), 23.6% had bladder tumors with a corresponding sensitivity of 54.2% and specificity of 88.6%. If both tests were negative only 3.3% of the patients had bladder tumors. The results of our study suggest that the efficacy of diagnostic evaluation of patients with microscopic hematuria may be further enhanced by combining RisikoCheck(C) questionnaire with NMP-22.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1453-1463
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• 2016

The most useful financial risk measure may be VaR (Value at Risk) which estimates the maximum loss amount statistically. The VaR tends to be estimated in many industries by using transformed univariate risk including variance-covariance matrix and a specific portfolio. Hong et al. (2016) are defined the Vector at Risk based on the multivariate quantile vector. When a specific portfolio is given, one point among Vector at Risk is founded as the best VaR which is called as an alternative VaR (AVaR). In this work, AVaRs have been investigated for multivariate normal distributions with many kinds of variance-covariance matrix and various portfolio weight vectors, and compared with VaRs. It has been found that the AVaR has smaller values than VaR. Some properties of AVaR are derived and discussed with these characteristics.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.10 no.1_2
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• pp.21-35
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• 1995

Risk assessment processes, which include processes for the estimation of human cancer potency using animal bioassay data and calculation of human exposure, entail uncertainties. In the exposure assessment process, exposure scenarios with various assumptions could affect the exposure amount and excess cancer risk. We compared risk estimates among various exposure scenarios of vinyl chloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene in tap water. The contaminant concentrations were analyzed from tap water samples in Seoul from 1993 to 1994. The oral and inhalation cancer potencies of the contaminants were estimated using multistage, Weibull, lognormal, and Mantel-Bryan model in TOX-RISK computer software. In the first case, human excess cancer risk was estimated by the US EPA method used to set the MCL(maximum contaminant level). In the second and third case, the risk was estimated for multi-route exposure with and without adopting Monte-Carlo simulation, respectively. In the second case, exposure input parameters and cancer potencies used probability distributions, and in the third case, those values used point estimates(mean, and maximum or 95% upper-bound value). As a result, while the excess cancer risk estimated by US EPA method considering only direct ingestion tended to be underestimated, the risk which was estimated by considering multi-route exposure without Monte-Carlo simulation and then using the maximum or 95% upper-bound value as input parameters tended to be overestimated. In risk assessment for volatile organic compounds, considering multi-route exposure with adopting Monte-Carlo analysis seems to provide the most reasonable estimations.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.269-274
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• 2005

This study gathered the factor of supply chain risk through literature review, and measured the importance of risk factors which have been recognized by domestic companies. This study has purposes and necessities as follows. First, supply risk factors were classified and explored through positive studies about supply chain risk. Most of previous studies helps grasping the meaning of supply chain risk but limited in conceptual side. Second, this study used AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method which makes decision-making problem classified, simplicated and systematized to evaluate the importance of supply-chain risk recognized by the companies. Finally, this study suggests registration-point in companies's efficient supply activity would be great by measuring the importance of supply-chain through AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process).

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.115-124
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• 2018

Background: Substantial empirical research has shown conflicting results regarding the influence of organizational external factors on construction risk management, suggesting the necessity to introduce a moderator into the study. The present research confirmed whether rules and regulations matter on the relationships between organizational external factors and construction risk management. Methods: Based on discouragement and organizational control theory, this research examined the effects of organizational external factors and rules and regulations on construction risk management among 238 employees operating in construction companies in Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria. A personally administered questionnaire was used to acquire the data. The data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. Results: A significant positive relationship between organizational external factors and construction risk management was asserted. This study also found a significant positive relationship between rules and regulations and construction risk management. As anticipated, rules and regulations were found to moderate the relationship between organizational external factors and construction risk management, with a significant positive result. Similarly, a significant interaction effect was also found between rules and regulations and organizational external factors. Implications of the research from a Nigerian point of view have also been discussed. Conclusion: Political, economy, and technology factors helped the construction companies to reduce the chance of risk occurrence during the construction activities. Rules and regulations also helped to lessen the rate of accidents involving construction workers as well as the duration of the projects. Similarly, the influence of the organizational external factors with rules and regulations on construction risk management has proven that most of the construction companies that implement the aforementioned factors have the chance to deliver their projects within the stipulated time, cost, and qualities, which can be used as a yardstick to measure a good project.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.302-311
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• 2024

Background: Unexpected conversion to thoracotomy during planned video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) can lead to poor outcomes and comparatively high morbidity. This study was conducted to assess preoperative risk factors associated with unexpected thoracotomy conversion and to develop a risk scoring model for preoperative use, aimed at identifying patients with an elevated risk of conversion. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted of 1,506 patients who underwent surgical resection for non-small cell lung cancer. To evaluate the risk factors, univariate analysis and logistic regression were performed. A risk scoring model was established to predict unexpected thoracotomy conversion during VATS of the lung, based on preoperative factors. To validate the model, an additional cohort of 878 patients was analyzed. Results: Among the potentially significant clinical variables, male sex, previous ipsilateral lung surgery, preoperative detection of calcified lymph nodes, and clinical T stage were identified as independent risk factors for unplanned conversion to thoracotomy. A 6-point risk scoring model was developed to predict conversion based on the assessed risk, with patients categorized into 4 groups. The results indicated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.747, with a sensitivity of 80.5%, specificity of 56.4%, positive predictive value of 1.8%, and negative predictive value of 91.0%. When applied to the validation cohort, the model exhibited good predictive accuracy. Conclusion: We successfully developed and validated a risk scoring model for preoperative use that can predict the likelihood of unplanned conversion to thoracotomy during VATS of the lung.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.634-647
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• 2019

Purpose: Currently, many chemicals are used in industrial and real life, and many substances are used in the form of a single substance, but most of them are used in the form of a mixture, and there is a need for a criterion for judging the danger of these substances. Method: Therefore, this study aims to confirm the risk criteria of the mixture through experimental studies on flammable mixtures in order to secure the effectiveness of the details of the existing Dangerous Goods Safety Management Act angerous Goods Judgment Criteria and to ensure the reliability and reproducibility of the dangerous goods judgment. Result: Experimental results show that alcohol flash point is mixed with water, which is a non-flammable liquid. Similar flash point trends occurred around 60% on an alcohol basis. In addition, in the case of flammable-combustible mixtures, there was little change in flash point if the flash point difference of the two materials was not large, and if the flash point difference of the two materials was low, the flash point tended to increase with the increase of the high flash point material. Conclusion: In the future, the test results may provide reference data on the experimental criteria for the flammable liquids that are cracked at the fire site.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.188-198
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• 2013

In constructing a collision avoidance system, it is important to determine the time for starting collision avoidance maneuver. Many researchers have attempted to formulate various indices by applying a range of techniques. Among these indices, collision risk obtained by combining Distance to the Closest Point of Approach (DCPA) and Time to the Closest Point of Approach (TCPA) information with fuzzy theory is mostly used. However, the collision risk has a limit, in that membership functions of DCPA and TCPA are empirically determined. In addition, the collision risk is not able to consider several critical collision conditions where the target ship fails to take appropriate actions. It is therefore necessary to design a new concept based on logical approaches. In this paper, a collision ratio is proposed, which is the expected ratio of unavoidable paths to total paths under suitably characterized operation conditions. Total paths are determined by considering categories such as action space and methodology of avoidance. The International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (1972) and collision avoidance rules (2001) are considered to solve the slower ship's dilemma. Different methods which are based on a constant speed model and simulated speed model are used to calculate the relative positions between own ship and target ship. In the simulated speed model, fuzzy control is applied to determination of command rudder angle. At various encounter situations, the time histories of the collision ratio based on the simulated speed model are compared with those based on the constant speed model.

• Journal of health informatics and statistics
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• v.41 no.3
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• pp.318-323
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• 2016

Objectives: Except the known risk factors for stroke, few studies have identified novel metabolic markers that could effectively detect stroke at an early stage. In this study, we explored the dose-response relationship between serum metabolites and the incidence of stroke. Methods: We studied 213 adults in the Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II (KCPS-II) biobank and estimated dose-response relationship between serum metabolites and stroke (42 cases and 171 controls). Three serum metabolites (Acetylcholine, HexadecylAcetylGlycerol, and 1-acetyl-2-formyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine) were used in this study. The analysis included (1) exploratory nonlinear analysis, (2) estimation of flexion points and slopes at below and above the points. In the model to estimate risk of incidence of stroke, we controlled for conventional risk factors such as age, sex, systolic blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, triglyceride, and smoking status. Results: The relationship between incidence of stroke and log-transformed 1-acetyl-2-formyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine was non-linear with flexion point around intensity score of 8.8, whereas other metabolites, log-transformed Acetylcholine and HexadecylAcetylGlycerol, showed negative linear patterns. Conclusions: The study suggests that metabolic markers are associated with incidence of stroke, particularly, at or above the flexion point. The study result may contribute to developing a novel system for precise stroke prediction.