A method of inferring collision ratio based on maneuverability of own ship under critical collision conditions

In constructing a collision avoidance system, it is important to determine the time for starting collision avoidance maneuver. Many researchers have attempted to formulate various indices by applying a range of techniques. Among these indices, collision risk obtained by combining Distance to the Closest Point of Approach (DCPA) and Time to the Closest Point of Approach (TCPA) information with fuzzy theory is mostly used. However, the collision risk has a limit, in that membership functions of DCPA and TCPA are empirically determined. In addition, the collision risk is not able to consider several critical collision conditions where the target ship fails to take appropriate actions. It is therefore necessary to design a new concept based on logical approaches. In this paper, a collision ratio is proposed, which is the expected ratio of unavoidable paths to total paths under suitably characterized operation conditions. Total paths are determined by considering categories such as action space and methodology of avoidance. The International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (1972) and collision avoidance rules (2001) are considered to solve the slower ship's dilemma. Different methods which are based on a constant speed model and simulated speed model are used to calculate the relative positions between own ship and target ship. In the simulated speed model, fuzzy control is applied to determination of command rudder angle. At various encounter situations, the time histories of the collision ratio based on the simulated speed model are compared with those based on the constant speed model.