• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk map

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Flood Risk Estimation Using Regional Regression Analysis (지역회귀분석을 이용한 홍수피해위험도 산정)

  • Jang, Ock-Jae;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2009
  • Although desire for living without hazardous damages grows these days, threats from natural disasters which we are currently exposed to are quiet different from what we have experienced. To cope with this changing situation, it is necessary to assess the characteristics of the natural disasters. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to suggest a methodology to estimate the potential property loss and assess the flood risk using a regional regression analysis. Since the flood damage mainly consists of loss of lives and property damages, it is reasonable to express the results of a flood risk assessment with the loss of lives and the property damages that are vulnerable to flood. The regional regression analysis has been commonly used to find relationships between regional characteristics of a watershed and parameters of rainfall-runoff models or probability distribution models. In our research, however, this model is applied to estimate the potential flood damage as follows; 1) a nonlinear model between the flood damage and the hourly rainfall is found in gauged regions which have sufficient damage and rainfall data, and 2) a regression model is developed from the relationship between the coefficients of the nonlinear models and socio-economic indicators in the gauged regions. This method enables us to quantitatively analyze the impact of the regional indicators on the flood damage and to estimate the damage through the application of the regional regression model to ungauged regions which do not have sufficient data. Moreover the flood risk map is developed by Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) which is equal to the ratio of the estimated flood damage to the total regional property. Comparing the results of this research with Potential Flood Damage (PFD) reported in the Long-term Korea National Water Resources Plan, the exports' mistaken opinions could affect the weighting procedure of PFD, but the proposed approach based on the regional regression would overcome the drawback of PFD. It was found that FVI is highly correlated with the past damage, while PFD does not reflect the regional vulnerabilities.

Soil Erosion Risk Assessment in the Upper Han River Basis Using Spatial Soil Erosion Map (분포형 토양침식지도를 이용한 한강상류지역 토양유실 위험성 평가)

  • Park, Chan-Won;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Hong, S.-Young;Hyun, Byung-Keun;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Ha, Sang-Keun;Moon, Young-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.828-836
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to evaluate soil erosion risk with a standard unit watershed in the upper Han river basin using the spatial soil erosion map according to the change of landuse. The study area is 14,577 $km^2$, which consists of 10 subbasins, 107 standard unit watersheds. Total annual soil loss and soil loss per area estimated were $895{\times}10^4\;Mg\;yr^{-1}$ and 6.1 Mg $ha^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$, respectively. A result of analysis with a subbasin as a unit showed that annual soil losses and soil loss per area in Namhan river basins was more than in Bukhan river ones. Predicted annual soil loss according to the landuse ranked as Forest & Grassland > Upland ${\gg}$ Urban & Fallow area > Paddy field > Orchard. Upland area covered 6.2% of the study area, but the contribution of total annul soil loss was 40.6% and that of Forest & Grassland was 44.2%. As a evaluation of soil erosion risk using the spatial soil erosion map, we could precisely conformed the potential hazardous region of soil erosion in each unit watersheds. The ratio of regions, graded as higher "Moderate" for annual soil loss, were respectively 8.7%, 7.9% and 7.8% in 1001, 1002 and 1003 subbasins in Namhan river basin. Most landuse of these area was upland, and these area is necessary to establish soil conservation practices to reduce soil erosion based on the field observation.

Neurobiology of Alzheimer's Disease (알쯔하이머 질환의 신경생물학)

  • Chung, Young-Cho;Seo, Seung-Woo;Lee, Seung-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Biological Psychiatry
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.62-70
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    • 2001
  • Alzheimer's disease(AD) is associated with a characteristic neuropathology. The major hallmarks of AD are senile plaques (SPs) and neurofibrillary tangles(NFTs). ${\beta}$-amyloid protein($A{\beta}$) is derived from the proteolysis of amyloid precursor protein(APP) and then converted to SPs. Mature SPs produce cytotoxicity through direct toxic effects and activation of microglia and complement. NFTs are composed of paired helical filaments(PHFs) including abnormally phosphorylated form of the microtubule-associated protein(MAP) tau and increased tau level in cerebrospinal fluid may be observed in most AD. The aggregation of $A{\beta}$ and tau formation are thought to be a final common pathway of AD. Acetylcholine, dopamine, serotonin, GABA and their receptors are associated with AD. Especially, decreased nicotinic acetylcholine receptors(nAChRs) in AD are reported. Genetic lesions associated with AD are mutations in the structural genes for the APP located on chromosome 21, presenilin(PSN)1 located on chromosome 14 and PSN2 located on chromosome 1. Also, trisomy 21, Apo-E gene located on chromosome 19, PMF locus, low density lipoprotein receptor-related protein and ${\alpha}$-macroglobulin increase risk of AD. In this article, we will review about the neurobiology of AD and some newly developed research areas.

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System Dynamics Analysis for Human Factors of Ship's Collision (SD법에 의한 선박충돌사고의 인적요인 분석)

  • Jang Woon Jae;Keum Jong Soo
    • Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.7-11
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    • 2003
  • Ship is being operated under a highly dynamic environments and many factors are related with ship's collision and those factors are interacting. So, an analysis on the ship's collision causes is very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation. And the analysis confirmed that ship's collision is occurred most frequently and the cause is closely related with human factor. The main purpose of this study is to build a model of human factors in ship's collision cause using SD(System Dynamics} approach and to measure a effect which is risk control countermeasures of ship's collision. To achieve this aim, the structure analysis on the causes of ship's collision using FSM are performed, and the structure was changed by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops in casual map. This model was performed over 20 years(1993-2012) in a standard simulation model and 8 policy simulation models.

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A Study on the Alternative Plan for Prevention of Marine Accident using System Dynamic (해양사고 예방을 위한 정책대안에 관한 연구)

  • Jang Woon-Jae;Kwon Suk-Jae;Keum Jong-Soo
    • Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 2004
  • Ship is bring operated under a highly dynamic environments and many factors are related whit marine accident and those factors are interacting. An analysis on the marine accident is very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation This paper aims to build a model of the rouses and improved policy for marine accident using SD(System Dynamics) approach and to measure a effect which is risk control countermeasures of marine accident The methodology of this paper is to perform the causes and improved policy for marine accident using Brainstorming method, and was to changed by quantitutive, qualitative factors and their feedback loops in casual map. This model was performed over 23 years($1997\~2020$) in a standard simulation model and 4 policy simulation models.

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A Study on the System Dynamics Analysis for Human Factors in Ship′s Collision Accidents (시스템 다이내믹스에 의한 선박충돌사고의 인적요인 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Keum, Jong-Soo;Yang, Weon-Jae;Jang, Woon-Jae
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.493-498
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    • 2003
  • Ship is being operated under a highly dynamic environments and many factors are related with ship's collision and those factors are interacting. So, An analysis on the ship's collision muses is very important to prepare countermeasures which will ensure the safe navigation. And the analysis confirmed that ship's collision is occurred most frequently and the muse is closely related with human factor. The main purpose of this study is to build a model of human factors in ship's collision muse using SD(System Dynamics} approach and to measure a effect which is risk control countermeasures of ship's collision. To achieve this aim, the structure analysis on the muses of ship's collision using FSM are performed, and the structure was changed by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops in casual map. This model was performed over 20 years(1993-2012) in a standard simulation model and 8 policy simulation models.

Dosimetric Effects of Air Pocket during Magnetic Resonance-Guided Adaptive Radiation Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer

  • Jin, Hyeongmin;Kim, Dong-Yun;Park, Jong Min;Kang, Hyun-Cheol;Chie, Eui Kyu;An, Hyun Joon
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.104-111
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Online magnetic resonance-guided adaptive radiotherapy (MRgART), an emerging technique, is used to address the change in anatomical structures, such as treatment target region, during the treatment period. However, the electron density map used for dose calculation differs from that for daily treatment, owing to the variation in organ location and, notably, air pockets. In this study, we evaluate the dosimetric effect of electron density override on air pockets during online ART for pancreatic cancer cases. Methods: Five pancreatic cancer patients, who were treated with MRgART at the Seoul National University Hospital, were enrolled in the study. Intensity modulated radiation therapy plans were generated for each patient with 60Co beams on a ViewrayTM system, with a 45 Gy prescription dose for stereotactic body radiation therapy. During the treatment, the electron density map was modified based on the daily MR image. We recalculated the dose distribution on the plan, and the dosimetric parameters were obtained from the dose volume histograms of the planning target volume (PTV) and organs at risk. Results: The average dose difference in the PTV was 0.86Gy, and the observed difference at the maximum dose was up to 2.07 Gy. The variation in air pockets during treatment resulted in an under- or overdose in the PTV. Conclusions: We recommend the re-contouring of the air pockets to deliver an accurate radiation dose to the target in MRgART, even though it is a time-consuming method.

GIS Technology for Soil Loss Analysis (금강유역 토양 유실 분석을 위한 GIS응용연구)

  • 김윤종;김원영;유일현;이석민;민경덕
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 1994
  • Soil loss was estimated by using universal soil loss equation(USLE) through GIS technique in Buyeu area. The expected soil loss is determined from six environmental factors: rainfall, erodibility of selected soil, length and steepness (gradient) of ground slope, crop grown in soil, and land practices used. A scoring system for assessing soil lossrisk has been developed for calculating SLI(Soil Loss Index) by GIS. The scores of six factors multiplied to give a total score which was compared with an chosen classification system to categorize areas of low, moderate and high risk. Finally, a soil loss assessment map was produced by GIS cartographic simulation technique, and this map could be applied in the establishment of regional land use planning.

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A Preliminary Study of Seismic Risk in Pyongyang, North Korea (북한 평양의 지진위험도 분석 선행연구)

  • Kang, Su Young;Kim, Kwang-Hee
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2016
  • Both 1900 years of historic literature and recent instrumental seismic records indicate the Korean Peninsula has repeatedly experienced small and large earthquakes. This study has used historical and instrumental records of Korea to investigate the characteristics of earthquakes in the peninsula. Results of GIS spatial analyses indicate Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, is more vulnerable to the earthquake hazard than that of other regions in the Korean Peninsula. It is also noted that Pyongyang is exposed to high risks of other natural and social disasters because of the high population density and concentrated infra structures. Scenario shake map drawn up assuming a magnitude 6.7 earthquake, which was experienced in A.D. 502 in the area, indicates that 51.1% of the city are exposed to PGA 0.24 g or higher. Recent statistics by the Statistics Korea also indicates the North Korea is far more vulnerable to disasters than those in the South Korea. Results of the preliminary study provide essential information for comprehensive understanding of earthquake hazard estimation in Korea including the North Korea.

Development of Railroad Rockfall and Landslide Information System using GIS (GIS를 이용한 철도 연변 낙석, 산사태 정보시스템 개발)

  • 이사로;송원경;박종휘
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to develop rail rockfall and landslide information system to manage spatial database using GIS. For this, a spatial database containing information such as railroad, map, topographic analysis, meteorological data, and rockfall has been constructed for 2.5 km or 5 km buffer zone from the Kyungchun, Youngdong, Jungang, Taebak and Jungsun Rairoad where risk of landslide occurrence potential is high. For management of the spatial database, railroad rockfall and landslide information system has been developed. The information system consists of view, table, chart, layout and project environment. The functions provided in the system are data conversion, editing, labeling, zoom in and out, map making, graphic editing, text DB management, charting, on-line help as well as input, retrieve and output of spatial database. The system was developed using ArcView script language Avenue, and consisted of pull-down menus and icons for easy use. The spatial database and the information system can be used to rockfall and landslide management and analysis near the railroad as basic data and tool.

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