• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk management factors

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Bankruptcy Type Prediction Using A Hybrid Artificial Neural Networks Model (하이브리드 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 부도 유형 예측)

  • Jo, Nam-ok;Kim, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.79-99
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    • 2015
  • The prediction of bankruptcy has been extensively studied in the accounting and finance field. It can have an important impact on lending decisions and the profitability of financial institutions in terms of risk management. Many researchers have focused on constructing a more robust bankruptcy prediction model. Early studies primarily used statistical techniques such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logit analysis for bankruptcy prediction. However, many studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees, case-based reasoning (CBR), and support vector machine (SVM), have been outperforming statistical techniques since 1990s for business classification problems because statistical methods have some rigid assumptions in their application. In previous studies on corporate bankruptcy, many researchers have focused on developing a bankruptcy prediction model using financial ratios. However, there are few studies that suggest the specific types of bankruptcy. Previous bankruptcy prediction models have generally been interested in predicting whether or not firms will become bankrupt. Most of the studies on bankruptcy types have focused on reviewing the previous literature or performing a case study. Thus, this study develops a model using data mining techniques for predicting the specific types of bankruptcy as well as the occurrence of bankruptcy in Korean small- and medium-sized construction firms in terms of profitability, stability, and activity index. Thus, firms will be able to prevent it from occurring in advance. We propose a hybrid approach using two artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of bankruptcy types. The first is a back-propagation neural network (BPN) model using supervised learning for bankruptcy prediction and the second is a self-organizing map (SOM) model using unsupervised learning to classify bankruptcy data into several types. Based on the constructed model, we predict the bankruptcy of companies by applying the BPN model to a validation set that was not utilized in the development of the model. This allows for identifying the specific types of bankruptcy by using bankruptcy data predicted by the BPN model. We calculated the average of selected input variables through statistical test for each cluster to interpret characteristics of the derived clusters in the SOM model. Each cluster represents bankruptcy type classified through data of bankruptcy firms, and input variables indicate financial ratios in interpreting the meaning of each cluster. The experimental result shows that each of five bankruptcy types has different characteristics according to financial ratios. Type 1 (severe bankruptcy) has inferior financial statements except for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) to sales based on the clustering results. Type 2 (lack of stability) has a low quick ratio, low stockholder's equity to total assets, and high total borrowings to total assets. Type 3 (lack of activity) has a slightly low total asset turnover and fixed asset turnover. Type 4 (lack of profitability) has low retained earnings to total assets and EBITDA to sales which represent the indices of profitability. Type 5 (recoverable bankruptcy) includes firms that have a relatively good financial condition as compared to other bankruptcy types even though they are bankrupt. Based on the findings, researchers and practitioners engaged in the credit evaluation field can obtain more useful information about the types of corporate bankruptcy. In this paper, we utilized the financial ratios of firms to classify bankruptcy types. It is important to select the input variables that correctly predict bankruptcy and meaningfully classify the type of bankruptcy. In a further study, we will include non-financial factors such as size, industry, and age of the firms. Thus, we can obtain realistic clustering results for bankruptcy types by combining qualitative factors and reflecting the domain knowledge of experts.

Revision of Nutrition Quotient for Korean adolescents 2021 (NQ-A 2021) (청소년 영양지수 (NQ-A 2021) 개정에 관한 연구)

  • Ki Nam Kim;Hyo-Jeong Hwang;Young-Suk Lim;Ji-Yun Hwang;Sehyug Kwon;Jung-Sug Lee;Hye-Young Kim
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.247-263
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study was conducted to update the Nutrition Quotient for Adolescents (NQ-A), which is used to assess the overall dietary quality and food behavior among Korean adolescents. Methods: The first 30 candidate items of the measurable eating behavior checklist were obtained based on a previous NQ-A checklist, the results of the seventh Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, Korea Youth Risk Behavior Survey data, national nutrition policies and dietary guidelines, and literature reviews. A total of 100 middle and high school students residing in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province participated in a pilot study using the 25-item checklist. Factor analysis and frequency analysis were conducted to determine if the checklist items were organized properly and whether the responses to each item were distributed adequately, respectively. As a result, 22 checklist items were selected for the nationwide survey, which was applied to 1,000 adolescent subjects with stratified sampling from 6 metropolitan cities. The construct validity of the updated NQ-A 2021 was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis. Results: Twenty checklist items were determined for the final NQ-A 2021. The items were composed of three factors: balance (8 items), moderation (9 items), and practice (3 items). The standardized path coefficients were used as the weights of items to determine the nutrition quotients. NQ-A 2021 and 3-factor scores were calculated according to the weights of questionnaire items. The weight for each of the 3 factors was determined as follows: balance, 0.15; moderation, 0.30; and practice, 0.55. Conclusion: The updated NQ-A 2021 is a useful instrument for easily and quickly evaluating the dietary qualities and eating behaviors of Korean adolescents.

A Study on the Conservation and Management of the Village Forest in Gyeonggi-do (경기도 마을숲의 보전 및 관리에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Dong-Kyu;Kim, Dong-Yeob
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.99-111
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    • 2015
  • The objectives of this study were to investigate the location, shape, environment, and vegetation of the Village Forest in Gyeonggi-do and to evaluate the ecological integration and changes of the Village Forests to figure out the measures for conservation and management. There were 23 Village Forests remain in Gyeonggi-do. Ten Village Forests were established based on Feng-shui background. Many of them were found in Yongin area and southeast of Icheon. The Village Forests were owned by local community at 9 village and privately owned at 8 villages. Most Village Forests were managed by local communities except for the two managed by private person. Fifty-two percent of the Village Forests were in strip shape, and most of them were established by Feng-shui background or for the prevention of disasters. The average size of the Village Forests was relatively small at 3,046m2. The most frequent tree species found at the Village Forest were Zelkova serrata and Pinus densiflora. Over half of the number of Village Forests showed vertical structure of overstory trees only or overstory-sub overstory combination, which seemed to be resulted from the loss of understory plants by the activities of local residents. The Village Forests that had over 30% of damaged trees were found at 7 villages. The damages were caused by the road construction close to the groves, soil compaction, and tree death by covering lower stem with soil. The vitality of the damaged trees seemed to be significantly low compared to that of the undamaged. There were factors that determined the changes in the Village Forests: community ritual, institutional protection, designation as a water resource protection district, road construction, land use change, windstorm hazards, and development of forest areas. In order to conserve and manage the Village Forests appropriately, it is necessary to limit excessive use of the grove areas and maintain proper tree growing conditions by improving the soil environment. The development of neighborhood areas need to be controlled and community activities should be encouraged to maintain or restore the original landscape of the groves. Protection measures and supporting policies need to be enforced to keep the Village Forests from disappearing in near future.

An Empirical Study on Korean Stock Market using Firm Characteristic Model (한국주식시장에서 기업특성모형 적용에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Soo-Kyung;Park, Jong-Hae;Byun, Young-Tae;Kim, Tae-Hyuk
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2010
  • This study attempted to empirically test the determinants of stock returns in Korean stock market applying multi-factor model proposed by Haugen and Baker(1996). Regression models were developed using 16 variables related to liquidity, risk, historical price, price level, and profitability as independent variables and 690 stock monthly returns as dependent variable. For the statistical analysis, the data were collected from the Kis Value database and the tests of forecasting power in this study minimized various possible bias discussed in the literature as possible. The statistical results indicated that: 1) Liquidity, one-month excess return, three-month excess return, PER, ROE, and volatility of total return affect stock returns simultaneously. 2) Liquidity, one-month excess return, three-month excess return, six-month excess return, PSR, PBR, ROE, and EPS have an antecedent influence on stock returns. Meanwhile, realized returns of decile portfolios increase in proportion to predicted returns. This results supported previous study by Haugen and Baker(1996) and indicated that firm-characteristic model can better predict stock returns than CAPM. 3) The firm-characteristic model has better predictive power than Fama-French three-factor model, which indicates that a portfolio constructed based on this model can achieve excess return. This study found that expected return factor models are accurate, which is consistent with other countries' results. There exists a surprising degree of commonality in the factors that are most important in determining the expected returns among different stocks.

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Study on economic effects of outsourcing of food materials on the hotel kitchen - Focus on cooking Western food in the first class hotel - (식재료 아웃소싱이 경제적 주방에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 특1급호텔 양식조리를 중심으로 -)

  • 성태종
    • Journal of Applied Tourism Food and Beverage Management and Research
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.45-69
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    • 2002
  • This study is designed to examine feasibility and limitation of outsourcing in cooking Western food in a hotel, to interpret importance of outsourcing(eg. outside order, outside procurement, outside supply) in a broad sense in order to reinforce the core capacity in the cooking department, and to know whether the cooking human power is efficiently used and how much the chefs recognize outsourcing of food materials. As many companies conduct restructuring to cut down its size, the reduction of human power led the Western food cooking in the hotel to lower core capacities, lower quality, and lower efficiency. In addition, the sagging morale of chefs undermined creativity. To change from the traditional kitchen to an economic kitchen needs to look into importance of outsourcing, cognitive attitude of chefs, relation with outside suppliers. Here suggests performance of positive changes in the structure The study examined feasibility and limitation of outsourcing in the hotel kitchen as well as chefs' cognitive attitude toward outsourcing of food materials to reinforce core capabilities of the hotel kitchen. 1. Companies of outsourcing are selected according to variability of price conditions, flexibility of contract conditions, popularity of the outsourcing company, and reputation of the outsourcing company. 2. The importance of outsourcing in the Western food cooking is divided into 4 factors such as standard of selecting outsourcing companies, policies of cooking manu, quality of cooking, and quantity of cooking. 3. The most feasible section in outsourcing of food materials is a process of kneading flour for bread, which shows that many Western-food chefs expect to put higher possibility of outsourcing on the kneading. In other words, when it comes to confectionery and bakery, there are many outside expert processing companies supplying high quality products. In the order of outsourcing feasibility, sauce is followed by processed vegetable, garnish of main dish, and soup. The least feasible section in outsourcing of food materials is appetize. Appetize includes a concept of a improvised dish and needs speed. Due to its color, freshness, and sensibility of taste, the appetize plays a key role in the Western food cooking. 4. When outsourcing is taken in place, the highest risk is to lower the inner cooking skills. Therefore chefs in charge of the Western food sequently recognize both internal problems including storage of cooking skills, unstability of layoffs, and loss of cooperation between departments, and external problems including inferior goods, difficulty of differentiating manu, delay of delivery, and expiration date. It shows that most of the Western food chefs consider risks of the internal problems at first. 5. A effective outsourcing needs appropriate selection of outsourcing companies, maintenance of credibility, active communication, check and management of hygiene. However regardless of their position or career, chefs in charge of the Western food have the same cognitive attitude toward selecting successful outsourcing companies after the outsourcing system is enforced. The core of cooking, or a final stage in the full process of so-called artistic cooking, should be treated with insourcing. Reduction of several cooking processes resulted in shortened cooking time, increased efficiency, faster cooking, cutting the waiting-lines, and finally more room for customers. The outsourcing system can reduce or eliminate the following processes in cooking: buying various food materials, checking, storing, preparing, and processing. Especially in the Western food cooking department of a hotel, the outsourcing system should be enforced to make an economic kitchen and to efficiently manage it. Wow it's time to change from the traditional kitchen to an economic kitchen in the hotel cooking department. For that, the cooking department should become a small but strong organization by outsourcing except its core work.

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The Clinical Effects of Surgical Treatment for Hemoptysis due to Inflammatory Lung Disease (염증성 폐질환에 의한 객혈에 대한 수술적 치료 효과)

  • Yun, Ju-Sik;Na, Kook-Joo;CheKar, Jay-Key;Jeong, In-Seok;Song, Sang-Yun;Oh, Sang-Gi
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.144-149
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    • 2010
  • Background: Many studies have demonstrated the various therapeutic options for treating hemoptysis caused by inflammatory lung disease. However, there is debate over the surgical management of the ongoing hemoptysis. Therefore, we evaluated the clinical results of pulmonary resection that was done due to hemoptysis in patients with concomitant inflammatory lung disease. Material and Method: We performed a retrospective analysis of 75 patients who received pulmonary resection for hemoptysis and concomitant inflammatory lung disease between 2001 and 2007. The mean age was $52.1{\pm}12.5$ years old, and the male; female ratio was 52:23. Result: The underlying disease was aspergilloma in 30 patients (40%), pulmonary tuberculosis in 20 patients, bronchiectasis in 18 patients and other causes in 7 patients. The surgical treatment included lobectomy in 55 patients, bilobectony in 2 patients, pneumonectomy in 17 patients and wedge resection in 1 patient. There were 3 early deaths, and the causes of death were pneumonia in 1 patient and BPF in 2 patients. The early mortality was statistically higher for such risk factors as a preoperative Hgb level <10 g/dL, COPD and an emergency operation. Conclusion: In conclusion, pulmonary resection for treating hemoptysis showed the acceptable range of mortality and it was an effective method for the management of hemoptysis in patients with inflammatory lung disease. However, relatively high rates of mortality and morbidity were noted for an emergency operation, and so meticulous care is needed in this situation.

Early postoperative arrhythmias after open heart surgery of pediatric congenital heart disease (소아 선천성 심장병 개심술 후 발생한 조기 부정맥)

  • Choi, Hee-Joung;Kim, Yeo-Hyang;Cho, Joon-Yong;Hyun, Myung-Chul;Lee, Sang-Bum;Kim, Kyu-Tae
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.532-537
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    • 2010
  • Purpose : Early postoperative arrhythmias are a major cause of mortality and morbidity after open heart surgery in the pediatric population. We evaluated the incidence and risk factors of early postoperative arrhythmias after surgery of congenital heart disease. Methods : From January 2002 to December 2008, we retrospectively reviewed the medical records of the 561 patients who underwent cardiac surgery in Kyungpook National University Hospital. We analyzed patients' age and weight, occurrence and type of arrhythmia, cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time, aortic cross clamp (ACC) time, and postoperative electrolyte levels. Results : Arrhythmias occurred in 42 of 578 (7.3%) cases of the pediatric cardiac surgery. The most common types of arrhythmia were junctional ectopic tachycardia (JET) and accelerated idioventricular rhythm (AIVR), which occurred in 17 and 13 cases, respectively. The arterial switch operation (ASO) of transposition of the great arteries (TGA) had the highest incidence of arrhythmia (36.4%). Most cases of cardiac arrhythmia showed good response to management. Patients with early postoperative arrhythmias had significantly lower body weight, younger age, and prolonged CPB and ACC times ($P$<0.05) than patients without arrhythmia. Although the mean duration of ventilator care and intensive care unit stay were significantly longer ($P$<0.05), the mortality rate was not significantly different among the 2 groups. Conclusion : Early postoperative arrhythmias are a major complication after pediatric cardiac surgery; however, aggressive and immediate management can reduce mortality and morbidity.

Guideline in the Management of Antenatally Diagnosed Unilateral Hydronephrosis (산전 초음파로 발견된 수신증의 치료 방침)

  • Hahn Hye-Won;Jun Nu-Lee;Kim Kun-Seok;Moon Dae-Hyuk;Yoon Chong-Hyun;Park Young-Seo
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.60-66
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Neonatal hydronephrosis has been detected with increasing frequency with the widespread use of prenatal ultrasonography, but the consensus about its postnatal management has not yet been reached, especially about surgical intervention. We attempted to determine the guideline of follow-up study and surgical intervention of hydronephrosis by analyzing clinical outcomes of neonates with hydronephrosis. Materials and Methods : Between 1994 and 2000, 128 hydronephrotic kidneys were postnatally confirmed. Cases associated with other urologic anomalies were excluded and 90 unilateral hydronephrotic kidneys with a minimum follow-up of 12 months were enrolled in this study. We classified the patients into 6 groups according to the anterior posterior pelvic diameter(APPD) at initial ultrasonography(USG) within 1 month after birth. Renal USG and $Tc^{99m}-mercaptoacetyl$ triglycerine(MAG3) scan were done according to a set protocol, and pyeloplasty was performed when indicated according to our protocol. Results : Most cases whose APPD were below 10 mm improved or resolved. Only few cases with APPD above 20 mm showed spontaneous improvement and most(88%) had undergone operation. Those with initial APPD within 10-19 mm showed variable outcomes. When the risk factors for irreversible renal functional deterioration were analyzed, the age at pyeloplasty and pre-operative functional deficit were significant. Conclusion : We concluded that in infants with initial APPD below 10 mm, consideration of surgery is not needed, and in those with initial APPD above 20 mm, early operation is recommended. Our set protocol based on initial USG is useful, but the cut-off value of relative renal function(RRF) for operation might be increased to 40% to improve post operative RRF.

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An Empirical Study on the Long-Run Performance of Cross-Listings by Multinational Corporations (다국적기업 해외상장의 장기적인 성과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Soon;Park, Sang-An
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.27-63
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    • 2004
  • Since the 1980s, many multinational corporations have been issuing stocks on foreign stock exchanges, not only to enhance their investor base and liquidity, but also to diversify risks. The phenomenon has also been intensified by the rapid financial globalization and securitization trends. The main purpose of this study is to look into the long-run performance of MNCs' cross-listings of stocks on foreign stock exchanges. We use the event study and cross-sectional regression methods. We obtained some interesting empirical results about the long-run effect of cross-listings. First before the listing data the effect of cross-listing is to increase the underlying stock Vice in the local market. It may be caused by expectation of lower risk and cost of capital. However, after the listing data the stock price has been declining, even if it is not significant. Second, we examine the difference in the long-run cross-listing effect, which may be caused by the listing direction. When listing is made from a less developed market to a more developed market, the effect is better than that in the reverse direction. Furthermore, the effect is worse, when the listing company's home country is the U.S. Third, there is a negative relation between CARs and underlying stock liquidity in the local market, So it implies that a firm, whose underlying stocks are very liquid in the local market should carefully value cross-listing based upon the cost and benefit analysis. Last, but not the least we find that the long-un cross-listing effect is better, when a listing firm's ROE is higher.

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Management of an Intra-abdominal Fluid Collection after Gastric Cancer Surgery (위암 수술 후 발생한 복강 내 체액 저류의 치료)

  • Jeon, Young-Min;Ahn, Hye-Seong;Yoo, Moon-Won;Cho, Jae-Jin;Lee, Jeong-Min;Lee, Huk-Joon;Yang, Han-Kwang;Lee, Kuhn-Uk
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.256-261
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: Intra-abdominal fluid collection is one of the risk factors associated with postoperative morbidity or mortality for patients who undergo gastric cancer surgery. The aim of this study was to analyze the clinicopathological characteristics of the patients with postoperative intra-abdominal fluid collection and to identify the indications for inserting a percutaneous drain (PCD) in patients with intra-abdominal fluid collection. Materials and Methods: Among the 1,277 patients who underwent operations for gastric cancer at Seoul National University Hospital between April 2005 and July 2006, the data of 117 patients with an intra-abdominal fluid collection were reviewed. Results: The number of patients' with pathologic stage I, II, III and IV disease was 42 (36.8%), 23 (20.2%), 16 (14%) and 33 (28.9%), respectively. Forty-three patients (36.3%) underwent PCD insertion and the other 43 patients received conservative management. A univariate analysis of multiple clinical variables revealed that age, gender, diabetes, liver disease, lymph node dissection, the pathologic stage and the body mass index (BMI, $kg/m^2$) were not significantly associated with PCD insertion (P>0.05). However, the univariate analysis showed that two characteristics were associated with a significantly high incidence of PCD insertion: a diameter of an intra-abdominal fluid collection greater than 4 cm and infectious signs such as leukocytosis, fever and bacteremia. Conclusion: About two thirds of the intra-abdominal fluid collections after surgery for gastric cancer were managed with only conservative method without other morbidities of mortality. Surgeons should consider performing PCD insertion if the largest diameter of an intra-abdominal fluid collection is over 4 cm or if infectious signs are seen.

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