• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk management System

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The study of heavy rain warning in Gangwon State using threshold rainfall (침수유발 강우량을 이용한 강원특별자치도 호우특보 기준에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeonjia;Kang, Donghob;Lee, Iksangc;Kim, Byungsikd
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.11
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    • pp.751-764
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    • 2023
  • Gangwon State is centered on the Taebaek Mountains with very different climate characteristics depending on the region, and localized heavy rainfall is a frequent occurrence. Heavy rain disasters have a short duration and high spatial and temporal variability, causing many casualties and property damage. In the last 10 years (2012~2021), the number of heavy rain disasters in Gangwon State was 28, with an average cost of 45.6 billion won. To reduce heavy rain disasters, it is necessary to establish a disaster management plan at the local level. In particular, the current criteria for heavy rain warnings are uniform and do not consider local characteristics. Therefore, this study aims to propose a heavy rainfall warning criteria that considers the threshold rainfall for the advisory areas located in Gangwon State. As a result of analyzing the representative value of threshold rainfall by advisory area, the Mean value was similar to the criteria for issuing a heavy rain warning, and it was selected as the criteria for a heavy rain warning in this study. The rainfall events of Typhoon Mitag in 2019, Typhoons Maysak and Haishen in 2020, and Typhoon Khanun in 2023 were applied as rainfall events to review the criteria for heavy rainfall warnings, as a result of Hit Rate accuracy verification, this study reflects the actual warning well with 72% in Gangneung Plain and 98% in Wonju. The criteria for heavy rain warnings in this study are the same as the crisis warning stages (Attention, Caution, Alert, and Danger), which are considered to be possible for preemptive rain disaster response. The results of this study are expected to complement the uniform decision-making system for responding to heavy rain disasters in the future and can be used as a basis for heavy rain warnings that consider disaster risk by region.

A study on measures for the mitigation of fire damage in Korea super high-rise building through the improvement of domestic·foreign standards (국·내외 기준개선을 통한 국내 초고층 건축물의 화재피해경감 대책에 관한 연구)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.233-248
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    • 2017
  • Uniform laws and regulations and reasonable design is necessary for the prevention of possible fire in super high-rise building. To this end, this study focused on super high-rise and massive building-related architectural review performance-based design (PBD) evaluation disaster impact assessment (DIA), and provided fire engineering measures for improving fire prevention on the basis of performance-based design by analyzing the buildings subject to these systems and problems in terms of contents. Above all, in the aspect of law and standard improvement, first, with regard to dual parts of two statutes though significant portion of them has the same contents in performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA), it is necessary to operate the systems after making them conform with each other and consolidating or abolishing them. Second, if it is impossible to consolidate or abolish performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA), the areas of contents of performance-based design (PBD) evaluation and disaster impact assessment (DIA) should be precisely classified and established. Next, engineering improvement measures against fire hazard in super high-rise building are as follows. First, it is necessary to revise the provisions of straight-run stairs in special escape stairs. And in case of installing a mechanical smoke exhaust system instead of smoke vent, sandwich pressurization used in the United Stated should be permitted. Second, with regard to smoke control system for special escape stairs, it was shown that there was necessity for revising the standards in order to enable air to be supplied according to section in case of fire, carrying out performance-based design, and the like from the early design stages to the completion stages. In the future, it is expected that an epoch-making contribution will be made to a decrease in casualties and property damage due to fire in case of super high-rise building where the results can be reflected after carrying out a study on maintenance and carrying out an additional study on other considerations of super high-rise building together with reflecting the improvement measures provided in the above-mentioned study.

Learning from the USA's Single Emergency Number 911: Policy Implications for Korea (미국 긴급번호 911 운영시스템에 관한 연구: 긴급번호 실질적 통합을 위한 정책 시사점 제시 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hak-Kyong;Lee, Sung-Yong
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.43
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    • pp.67-97
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    • 2015
  • In Korea, a single emergency number, such as 911 of the USA and 999 of the UK, does not exist. This issue became highly controversial, when the Sewol Ferry Sinking disaster occurred last year. So, the Korean government has planned to adopt a single emergency number, integrating 112 of the Police, 119 of the Fire and Ambulance, 122 of the Korean Coast Guard, and many other emergency numbers. However, the integration plan recently proposed by the Ministry of Public Safety Security seems to be, what is called, a "partial integration model" which repeals the 122 number, but still maintains 112, 119, and 110 respectively. In this context, the study looks into USA's (diverse) 911 operating system, and subsequently tries to draw general features or characteristics. Further, the research attempts to derive policy implication from the general features. If the proposed partial integration model reflects the policy implications, the model can virtually operate like the 911 system -i.e. a single emergency number system - creating inter-operability between responding agencies such as police, fire, and ambulance, even though it is not a perfect integration model. The features drawn are (1) integration of emergency call-taking, (2) functional separation of call-taking and dispatching, (3) integration of physical facilities for call-taking and dispatching, and (4) professional call-takers and dispatchers. Moreover, the policy implications derived from the characteristics are (1) a user-friendly system - fast but accurate responses, (2) integrated responses to accidents, (3) professional call-taking and dispatching & objective and comprehensive risk assessment, and finally (4) active organizational learning in emergency call centers. Considering the policy implications, the following suggestions need to be applied to the current proposed plan: 1. Emergency services' systems should be tightly linked and connected in a systemic way so that they can communicate and exchange intelligence with one another. 2. Public safety answering points (call centers) of each emergency service should share their education and training modules, manuals, etc. Common training and manuals are also needed for inter-operability. 3. Personal management to enable-long term service in public safety answering points (call centers) should be established as one of the ways to promote professionalism.

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Clinical Characteristics and Prognosis of Neonatal Seizures (신생아 경련의 임상적 양상 및 예후에 관한 고찰)

  • Kim, Chang Wu;Jang, Chang Hwan;Kim, Heng Mi;Choe, Byung Ho;Kwon, Soon Hak
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.46 no.12
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    • pp.1253-1259
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    • 2003
  • Backgroud : Seizures in the neonate are relatively common and their clinical features are different from those in children and adults. The study aimed to provide the clinical profiles of neonatal seizure in our hospital. Methods : A total of 41 newborns with seizures were enrolled in this study over a period of three years. They were evaluated with special reference to risk factors, neurologic examinations, laboratory data, neuroimaging studies, EEG findings, seizure types, response to treatment, and prognosis, etc. Results : The average age at onset of seizures was $6.1{\pm}4.6days$ and the majority of patients(42%) had multifocal clonic seizure and 24% had subtle seizure. Factors that are known to increase risk of neonatal seizures include abnormal delivery history, birth asphyxia, and electrolyte imbalance, etc. However, they remain obscure in about 20% of cases. More than 50 percent showed abnormal lesions on neuroimaging studies such as brain hemorrhage, periventricular leukomalacia, brain infarction, cortical dysplasia, hydrocephalus, etc. and 17 out of 32 patients showed abnormal electroencephalographic patterns. Phenobarbital was tried as a first line antiepileptic drug and phenytoin was added if it failed to control seizures. The treatments were terminated in the majority of patients during the hospital stay. The overall prognosis was relatively good except for those with abnormal EEG background or congenital central nervous system malformations. Conclusion : Neonatal seizures may permanently disrupt brain development. Better understanding of their clinical profiles and appropriate management may lead to a reduction in neurological disability in later childhood.

The Factors Influencing Intention to Use Bit Coin of Domestic Consumers (국내 소비자들의 비트코인 사용 의도에 영향을 미치는 요인 연구)

  • Shin, Dong-Hee;Kim, Yong-Moon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.24-41
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    • 2016
  • Study is about Bit Coin that is electronic cash that is received attention globally in recent. It is increasing domestically that uses bit coin for convenience of micro payment, and also bit coin is possible to exchange each countries' currency. In this point, we searched understanding degree and acceptance of bit coin. Also we applied transformed TAM(Technology Acceptance Model) to search factors that have an effect on consumers' intention to use it. In advance, we analyze features of bit coin, and extract factors through preceding researches for existing electronic cash, because studies for intention to use bit coin are weak in internal and external. First of results is that 'economic efficiency' which is a characteristic variable of bit coin influences 'intention to use,' a dependent variable through 'perceived usefulness,' a parameter. It was investigated that monetary and mental costs that was costed when we use bit coin were less than using other cash. Secondly, 'payment convenience' that is a characteristic variable affects 'intention to use', a dependent variable through 'perceived usefulness,' a parameter. It was measured that problems of inconvenience that include transaction process, cash management time shortage and exchange changes will be solved by using bit coin. Thirdly, 'reliability' that is a perceived risk variable of bit coin has a direct effect on 'intention to use,' a dependent variable. It was investigated that we could achieve purpose of payment because we weren't influenced by breakdown on system by processing distributed database in some computers. Fourthly, 'perceived usefulness,' a parameter of bit coin directly affects 'intention to use,' a dependent variable. Then consumers who want to use bit coin are fascinated bit coin for various usability. Moreover, we want to provide implications to all of finance corporations, companies related electronic cash and bit coin users based on these results.

The prediction of the stock price movement after IPO using machine learning and text analysis based on TF-IDF (증권신고서의 TF-IDF 텍스트 분석과 기계학습을 이용한 공모주의 상장 이후 주가 등락 예측)

  • Yang, Suyeon;Lee, Chaerok;Won, Jonggwan;Hong, Taeho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.237-262
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    • 2022
  • There has been a growing interest in IPOs (Initial Public Offerings) due to the profitable returns that IPO stocks can offer to investors. However, IPOs can be speculative investments that may involve substantial risk as well because shares tend to be volatile, and the supply of IPO shares is often highly limited. Therefore, it is crucially important that IPO investors are well informed of the issuing firms and the market before deciding whether to invest or not. Unlike institutional investors, individual investors are at a disadvantage since there are few opportunities for individuals to obtain information on the IPOs. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to provide individual investors with the information they may consider when making an IPO investment decision. This study presents a model that uses machine learning and text analysis to predict whether an IPO stock price would move up or down after the first 5 trading days. Our sample includes 691 Korean IPOs from June 2009 to December 2020. The input variables for the prediction are three tone variables created from IPO prospectuses and quantitative variables that are either firm-specific, issue-specific, or market-specific. The three prospectus tone variables indicate the percentage of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in a prospectus, respectively. We considered only the sentences in the Risk Factors section of a prospectus for the tone analysis in this study. All sentences were classified into 'positive', 'neutral', and 'negative' via text analysis using TF-IDF (Term Frequency - Inverse Document Frequency). Measuring the tone of each sentence was conducted by machine learning instead of a lexicon-based approach due to the lack of sentiment dictionaries suitable for Korean text analysis in the context of finance. For this reason, the training set was created by randomly selecting 10% of the sentences from each prospectus, and the sentence classification task on the training set was performed after reading each sentence in person. Then, based on the training set, a Support Vector Machine model was utilized to predict the tone of sentences in the test set. Finally, the machine learning model calculated the percentages of positive, neutral, and negative sentences in each prospectus. To predict the price movement of an IPO stock, four different machine learning techniques were applied: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Network. According to the results, models that use quantitative variables using technical analysis and prospectus tone variables together show higher accuracy than models that use only quantitative variables. More specifically, the prediction accuracy was improved by 1.45% points in the Random Forest model, 4.34% points in the Artificial Neural Network model, and 5.07% points in the Support Vector Machine model. After testing the performance of these machine learning techniques, the Artificial Neural Network model using both quantitative variables and prospectus tone variables was the model with the highest prediction accuracy rate, which was 61.59%. The results indicate that the tone of a prospectus is a significant factor in predicting the price movement of an IPO stock. In addition, the McNemar test was used to verify the statistically significant difference between the models. The model using only quantitative variables and the model using both the quantitative variables and the prospectus tone variables were compared, and it was confirmed that the predictive performance improved significantly at a 1% significance level.

Clinical Practice Guideline for Endoscopic Resection of Early Gastrointestinal Cancer (조기위장관암 내시경 치료 임상진료지침)

  • Park, Chan Hyuk;Yang, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Jong Wook;Kim, Jie-Hyun;Kim, Ji Hyun;Min, Yang Won;Lee, Si Hyung;Bae, Jung Ho;Chung, Hyunsoo;Choi, Kee Don;Park, Jun Chul;Lee, Hyuk;Kwak, Min-Seob;Kim, Bun;Lee, Hyun Jung;Lee, Hye Seung;Choi, Miyoung;Park, Dong-Ah;Lee, Jong Yeul;Byeon, Jeong-Sik;Park, Chan Guk;Cho, Joo Young;Lee, Soo Teik;Chun, Hoon Jai
    • Journal of Digestive Cancer Research
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-50
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    • 2020
  • Although surgery was the standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers, endoscopic resection is now a standard treatment for early gastrointestinal cancers without regional lymph node metastasis. High-definition white light endoscopy, chromoendoscopy, and image-enhanced endoscopy such as narrow band imaging are performed to assess the edge and depth of early gastrointestinal cancers for delineation of resection boundaries and prediction of the possibility of lymph node metastasis before the decision of endoscopic resection. Endoscopic mucosal resection and/or endoscopic submucosal dissection can be performed to remove early gastrointestinal cancers completely by en bloc fashion. Histopathological evaluation should be carefully made to investigate the presence of risk factors for lymph node metastasis such as depth of cancer invasion and lymphovascular invasion. Additional treatment such as radical surgery with regional lymphadenectomy should be considered if the endoscopically resected specimen shows risk factors for lymph node metastasis. This is the first Korean clinical practice guideline for endoscopic resection of early gastrointestinal cancer. This guideline was developed by using mainly de novo methods and encompasses endoscopic management of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, early gastric cancer, and early colorectal cancer. This guideline will be revised as new data on early gastrointestinal cancer are collected.

Concerning the Constitution Court's constitutional decision and the direction of supplemental legislation concerning Article 33 paragraph 8 of the Medical Service Act - With a focus on legitimacy of a system that prohibits multiple opening of medical instituion, in the content of 2014Hun-Ba212, August 29, 2019, 2014Hun-Ga15, 2015Hun-Ma561, 2016Hun-Ba21(amalgamation), Constitutional Court of Korea - ('의료법 제33조 제8항 관련 헌법재판소의 합헌결정'에 대한 평가 및 보완 입법 방향에 대하여 -헌법재판소 2019. 8. 29. 2014헌바212, 2014헌가15, 2015헌마561, 2016헌바21(병합) 결정의 내용 중 의료기관 복수 개설금지 제도의 당위성 및 필요성을 중심으로-)

  • KIM, JOON RAE
    • The Korean Society of Law and Medicine
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.143-174
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    • 2019
  • Our Constitution obliges the state to protect the health of the people, and the Medical Law, which embodied Constitution, sets out in detail the matters related to open the medical institution, and one of them is to prohibit the operation of multiple medical institutions. By the way, virtually multiple medical institutions could be opened and operated because the Supreme Court had interpreted that several medical institutions could be opened if medical activities were not performed directly at the additional medical institution which was opened under the another doctor's license. However, some health care providers opened the several medical institutions with another doctor's license for the purpose of the maximization of profit, and did illegal medical cares like the unfair luring of patients, over-treatment, and commission treatment. Also, realistic problems such as the infringed health rights have arisen. Accordingly, lawmakers had come to amend the Medical Law to readjust the system of opening for medical institution so that medical personnel could not open or operate more than one medical institution for any reason. For this reason, the Constitutional Court recently declared a constitutional decision through a long period of in-depth deliberation because the constitutional petition and the adjudication on the constitutionality of statutes had been filed on whether Article 33 paragraph 8 of the revised medical law is unconstitutional. The Constitutional Court acknowledged the "justice of purpose" in view of the importance of public medical institutions, of the prevention from seduction of for-profit patients and from over-treatment, and of the fact that health care should not be the object of commercial transactions. Given the risk that medical personnel might be subject to outside capital, the concern that the holder of the medical institution's opening certificate and the actual operator may be separated, the principle that the human body and life should not be just a means, and the current system's inability to identify over-treatment, it also acknowledged the 'minimum infringement'. Furthermore, The Constitutional Court judged it is constitutional in compliance with the principle of restricting fundamental rights, such as 'balance of legal interests'. In this regard, legislative complements are needed in order to effectively prevent the for-profit management and the over-treatment the Constitutional Court is concerned about. In this regard, consumer groups actively support the need for legislation, and health care providers groups also agree on the need for legislation. Therefore, the legislators should respect the recent Constitutional Court's decision and in the near future complete the complementary legislation to reflect the people's interests.

Systemic Analysis on Hygiene of Food Catering in Korea (2005-2014) (Systemic analysis 방법을 활용한 국내 학교급식 위생의 주요 영향 인자 분석 연구(2005-2014))

  • Min, Ji-Hyeon;Park, Moon-Kyung;Kim, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Jong-Kyung
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2015
  • A systemic review on the factors affecting food catering hygiene was conducted to provide information for risk management of food catering in Korea. In total 47 keywords relating to food catering and food hygiene were searched for published journals in the DBpia for the last decade (2005-2014). As a result, 1,178 published papers were searched and 142 articles were collected by the expert review. To find the major factors affecting food catering and microbial safety, an analysis based on organization and stakeholder were conducted. School catering (64 papers) was a major target rather than industry (5 pagers) or hospitals (3 papers) in the selected articles. The factors affecting school catering were "system/facility/equipment (15 papers)", "hygiene education (12 papers)", "production/delivery company (6 papers)", food materials (4 papers)" and "any combination of the above factors (9 papers)". The major problems are follow. 1) The problems of "system/facility/equipment" were improper space division/separation, lack of mass cooking utensil, lack of hygiene control equipment, difficulty in temperature and humidity control, and lack of cooperation in the HACCP team (dietitian's position), poor hygienic classroom in the case of class dining (students'), hard workload/intensity of labor, poor condition of cook's safety (cook's) and lack of parents' monitoring activity (parents'). 2) The problem of "hygiene education' were related to formal and perfunctory hygiene education, lack of HACCP education, lack of compliance of hygiene practice (cook's), lack of personal hygiene education and little effect of education (students'). 3) The problems of "production/delivery company" were related to hygiene of delivery truck and temperature control, hygiene of employee in the supplying company and control of non-accredited HACCP company. 4) The area of "food materials" cited were distrust of safety regarding to raw materials, fresh cut produces, and pre-treated food materials. 5) In addition, job stability/the salary can affect the occupational satisfaction and job commitment. And job stress can affect the performance and the hygiene practice. It is necessary for the government to allocate budget for facility and equipment, conduct field survey, improve hygiene training program and inspection, prepare certification system, improve working condition of employees, and introducing hygiene and layout consulting by experts. The results from this study can be used to prepare education programs and develop technology for improving food catering hygiene and providing information.

The Prognostic Value of the First Day and Daily Updated Scores of the APACHE III System in Sepsis (패혈증환자에서 APACHE III Scoring System의 예후적 가치)

  • Lim, Chae-Man;Lee, Jae-Kyun;Lee, Sung-Soon;Koh, Youn-Suck;Kim, Woo-Sung;Kim, Dong-Soon;Kim, Won-Dong;Park, Pyung-Hwan;Choi, Jong-Moo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.871-877
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    • 1995
  • Background: The index which could predict the prognosis of critically ill patients is needed to find out high risk patients and to individualize their treatment. The APACHE III scoring system was established in 1991, but there has been only a few studies concerning its prognostic value. We wanted to know whether the APACHE III scores have prognostic value in discriminating survivors from nonsurvivors in sepsis. Methods: In 48 patients meeting the Bones criteria for sepsis, we retrospectively surveyed the day 1(D1), day 2(D2) and day 3(D3) scores of patients who were admitted to intensive care unit. The scores of the sepsis survivors and nonsurvivors were compared in respect to the D1 score, and also in respect to the changes of the updated D2 and D3 scores. Results: 1) Of the 48 sepsis patients, 21(43.5%) survived and 27(56.5%) died. The nonsurvivors were older($62.7{\pm}12.6$ vs $51.1{\pm}18.1$ yrs), presented with lower mean arterial pressure($56.9{\pm}26.2$ vs $67.7{\pm}14.2\;mmHg$) and showed greater number of multisystem organ failure($1.2{\pm}0.8$ vs $0.2{\pm}0.4$) than the survivors(p<0.05, respectively). There were no significant differences in sex and initial body temperature between the two groups. 2) The D1 score was lower in the survivors (n=21) than in the nonsurvivors ($44.1{\pm}14.6$, $78.5{\pm}18.6$, p=0.0001). The D2 and D3 scores significantly decreased in the survivors (D1 vs D2, $44.1{\pm}14.6$ : $37.9{\pm}15.0$, p=0.035; D2 vs D3, $37.9{\pm}15.0$ : $30.1{\pm}9.3$, p=0.0001) but showed a tendency to increase in the nonsurvivors (D1 vs D2 (n=21), $78.5{\pm}18.6$ : $81.3{\pm}23.0$, p=0.1337; D2 vs D3 (n=11), $68.2{\pm}19.3$ : $75.3{\pm}18.8$, p=0.0078). 3) The D1 scores of 12 survivors and 6 nonsurvivors were in the same range of 42~67 (mean D1 score, $53.8{\pm}10.0$ in the survivors, $55.3{\pm}10.3$ in the nonsurvivors). The age, sex, initial body temperature, and mean arterial pressure were not different between the two groups. In this group, however, D2 and D3 was significantly decreased in the survivors(D1 vs D2, $53.3{\pm}10.0$ : $43.6{\pm}16.4$, p=0.0278; D2 vs D3, $43.6{\pm}16.4$ : $31.2{\pm}10.3$, p=0.0005), but showed a tendency to increase in the nonsurvivors(D1 vs D2 (n=6), $55.3{\pm}10.3:66.7{\pm}13.9$, p=0.1562; D2 vs D3 (n=4), $64.0{\pm}16.4:74.3{\pm}18.6$, p=0.1250). Among the individual items of the first day APACHE III score, only the score of respiratory rate was capable of discriminating the nonsurvivors from the survivors ($5.5{\pm}2.9$ vs $1.9{\pm}3.7$, p=0.046) in this group. Conclusion: In sepsis, nonsurvivors had higher first day APACHE III score and their updated scores on the following days failed to decline but showed a tendency to increase. Survivors, on the other hand, had lower first day score and showed decline in the updated APACHE scores. These results suggest that the first day and daily updated APACHE III scores are useful in predicting the outcome and assessing the response to management in patients with sepsis.

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