• 경영과학
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제47권9호
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• pp.789-799
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• 2014

본 연구는 도시지역의 내수침수 특성을 고려한 내수침수위험도 산정방법을 제시하였다. 의사결정과정에서 발생할 수 있는 불확실성을 정량적으로 반영하기 위하여 Fuzzy AHP 기법을 활용하였다. 내수침수 위험도의 평가기준으로는 물리적 지표, 사회적 지표, 그리고 내수침수 시나리오 결과 등 세 가지로 구성하였다. 각각의 평가기준은 3개의 세부평가항목을 가지고 있어 총 9가지의 평가항목을 바탕으로 내수침수 위험도 분석을 수행하였다. 또한, 행정구역 단위가 아닌 배수시스템의 노드(맨홀)를 기준으로 침수위험도를 분석하여 침수위험도가 높은 지점을 상세하게 표현할 수 있었다. 본 연구의 대상지역인 부산시 거제지구에 Fuzzy AHP 기법을 적용한 결과, 온천천 거제천 합류부 저지대의 침수위험도가 크게 나타났으며, 이는 과거 피해이력과 일치하는 것이다. Fuzzy AHP 기법을 적용한 본 연구결과는 내수침수 위험도 산정 및 고위험도 지역의 내수침수 저감계획 수립을 위한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.319-328
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• 2021

연구목적: 최근 대형 사회재난이 발생하면서 사회재난 안전도 진단에 대한 필요성이 요구되며 행정안전부에서 지역 안전지수, 국가안전대진단 등 지역의 안전도 등급을 계산하여 매년 공표하고 있다. 기존의 안전도 진단 시스템은 등간격 혹은 정규분포를 이용해서 획일화된 방법으로 등급화를 진행하여 위험지도를 작성하고 있다. 연구방법: 하지만 등간격 기법은 위험등급을 객관적으로 분석할 수 있지만 분포가 한쪽에 치우쳐있는 경우 위험등급을 분류하는데 한계가 있으며 z-score 기법은 모집단이 정규분포를 따르지 않으면 신뢰도가 떨어지는 문제가 있다. 지표별로 통계 데이터의 분포가 상이하기 때문에 데이터 분포별로 가장 적합한 등급화를 적용해야한다. 연구결과: 따라서 본 논문에서는 재난 지표의 데이터를 분석하여 각 지표마다 최적화된 등급화를 진행하고자 기존의 등간격 기법과 네츄럴브레이크 기법을 비교 및 적합한 방법을 제시하였다. 결론: 그 결과 기존의 등급화 기법과 다르게 적용된 것은 6새 지표 중 3개에 해당하였다.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.1154-1162
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• 2014

In the restructured electricity market, Performance-Based Regulation (PBR) regime has been introduced to the distribution network. To ensure the network stability, this regime is used along with quality regulations. Quality regulation impose new financial risks on distribution system operators (DSOs). The poor quality of the network will result in reduced revenues for DSOs. The mentioned financial risks depend on the quality indices of the system. Based on annual variation of these indices, the cost of quality regulation will also vary. In this paper with regard to reclosing fault in distribution network, we develop a risk-based method to assess the financial risks caused by quality regulation for DSOs. Furthermore, in order to take the stochastic behavior of the distribution network and quality indices variations into account, time-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method is used. Using the proposed risk method, the effect of taking reclosing time into account will be examined on system quality indicators and the cost of quality regulation in Swedish rural reliability test system (SRRTS). The results show that taking reclosing fault into consideration, affects the system quality indicators, particularly annual average interruption frequency index of the system (SAIFI). Moreover taking reclosing fault into consideration also affects the quality regulations cost. Therefore, considering reclosing time provides a more realistic viewpoint about the financial risks arising from quality regulation for DSOs.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제59권4호
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• pp.362-376
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• 2023

The IUU Fishing Index is composed of 40 indicators. These indicators were grouped by state responsibilities (flag, coastal, port, and general including market) defined in the FAO IPOA-IUU (2001) and then by type into vulnerability, prevalence, and response. A total of 152 coastal nations was surveyed. Korea's total combined IUU Fishing Index was 2.49 in 2019 and 2.91 in 2021, indicating a drop in the ranking to the third worst out of 152 countries followed by China and Russia in 2021. The indicators that increased the IUU fishing risk in 2021 compared to 2019 included seven indicators of prevalence and two indicators of response while those reducing the risk included one prevalence and one response indicator. The IUU Fishing Index revealed that many fisheries observers and monitoring, control and surveillance (MCS) practitioners active in the waters of RFMOs jurisdiction where Korean distant water vessels operate have mentioned concerns about the compliance with RFMO conservation measures or fishing practices. It suggested that strengthening management intervention in the fishing sector is needed. The primary tool for management is the MCS system. Given the logistical difficulty of oversight from land, air and at-sea, there is a need to enhance MCS strategies through logbook data, at-sea observer and electronic monitoring program. It also suggested that MSC fisheries certification and fisheries improvement projects, which are widely used for improving fishing sector performance, could contribute to the eradication of IUU fishing and the promotion of sustainable distant water fisheries.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제32권5호
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• pp.53-62
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• 2015

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to examine the associations among self-rated health and socioeconomic status. Methods: Analyses were conducted based on cross-sectional data obtained from the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey. A total of 79,202 students aged 12 to 18 years participated in the study and there was a response rate of 95.5%. Separate logistic regression analyses were performed on each gender group based on a set of independent variables. Those being: the level of parental education level; family affluence scale; subjective household economic status; and subjective school achievement with SRH as the dependent variable. Results: Multivariate analyses revealed significant associations between each SES and adolescent SRH after controlling for other covariates. However, in the models that included all SES indicators, subjective household economic status and subjective school achievement remained significant in boys and girls. Conclusions: The findings demonstrated that subjective SES indicators are more closely related to adolescent SRH when compared with objective indicators.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.783-788
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• 2021

정부(해양수산부) 및 관계기관에서는 안전관리 취약선박의 해양안전 증진을 위한 많은 정책을 시행하고 있으나, 선박의 안전관리에 대한 위험성평가 부재로 각 제도의 효과성에 다소 아쉬움이 확인되었다. 선박의 위험성평가에 대한 국내 선행연구는 대부분 개별적 해양사고 위험성에 대한 단편적 위험성만을 취급하고 있어 포괄적 해양사고 위험성평가를 위한 새로운 방식이 필요하다. 선박의 안전관리에 대한 포괄적 위험성평가 적용사례로 항만국통제와 노르웨이 해사국의 점검대상 선정방법이 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 해양사고 및 등록현황의 높은 비중을 차지하고 있는 연근해어선을 대상으로 포괄적 선박안전관리 위험성평가를 위한 지표를 개발하고 적용하였다. 그 결과, 각 선박별 위험성을 계량적 수치로 확인하였고, 개별적 안전관리 취약요소의 순위를 식별하였다.

• 한국의료질향상학회지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.186-207
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• 2001

Background : This study presented an analysis of healthcare quality indicators using data mining and a development of decision support system for quality improvement. Method : Specifically, important factors influencing the key quality indicators were identified using a decision tree method for data mining based on 8,405 patients who discharged from a medical center during the period between December 1, 2000 and January 31, 2001. In addition, a decision support system was developed to analyze and monitor trends of these quality indicators using a Visual Basic 6.0. Guidelines and tutorial for quality improvement activities were also included in the system. Result : Among 12 selected quality indicators, decision tree analysis was performed for 3 indicators ; unscheduled readmission due to the same or related condition, unscheduled return to intensive care unit, and inpatient mortality which have a volume bigger than 100 cases during the period. The optimum range of target group in healthcare quality indicators were identified from the gain chart. Important influencing factors for these 3 indicators were: diagnosis, attribute of the disease, and age of the patient in unscheduled returns to ICU group ; and length of stay, diagnosis, and belonging department in inpatient mortality group. Conclusion : We developed a decision support system through analysis of healthcare quality indicators and data mining technique which can be effectively implemented for utilization review and quality management in a healthcare organization. In the future, further number of quality indicators should be developed to effectively support a hospital-wide Continuous Quality Improvement activity. Through these endevours, a decision support system can be developed and the newly developed decision support system should be well integrated with the hospital Order Communication System to support concurrent review, utilization review, quality and risk management.

• Journal of Periodontal and Implant Science
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.240-250
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• 2017

Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the prevalence and risk indicators of peri-implantitis in Korean patients with history of periodontal disease. Methods: A total of 444 patients with 1,485 implants were selected from patients who had been treated at the Department of Periodontology, Chonbuk National University Dental Hospital between July 2014 and June 2015. A group with a history of peri-implantitis (HP) (370 patients with 1,189 implants) and a group with a current peri-implantitis (CP) (318 patients with 1,004 implants) were created based on the radiographic and clinical assessments of implants. The prevalence of peri-implantitis was calculated at both the patient and implant levels. The influence of risk variables on the occurrence of peri-implantitis was analyzed using generalized estimating equations analysis. Results: The prevalence of peri-implantitis in the HP and CP groups ranged from 6.7% to 19.7%. The cumulative peri-implantitis rate in the HP group estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method was higher than that in the CP group over the follow-up period. Among the patient-related risk variables, supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) was the only significant risk indicator for the occurrence of peri-implantitis in both groups. In the analysis of implant-related variables, implants supporting fixed dental prosthesis (FDP) and implants with subjective discomfort was associated with a higher prevalence of peri-implantitis than single implants and implants without subjective discomfort in the HP group. The presence of subjective discomfort was the only significant implant-related variable predictive of peri-implantitis in the CP group. Conclusions: Within the limitations of this study, the prevalence of peri-implantitis in Korean patients with a history of periodontal disease was similar to that reported in other population samples. Regular SPT was important for preventing peri-implantitis. Single implants were found to be less susceptible to peri-implantitis than those supporting FDP. Patients' subjective discomfort was found to be a strong risk indicator for peri-implantitis.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제38권3호
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• pp.53-77
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• 2016

Financial soundness in the household sector matters for financial stability and for the real economy. The level of household debt in Korea raises concern about the financial soundness of the household sector due to its size, growth rate and quality. Against this backdrop, we assess the financial vulnerability of borrowers based on an analysis of credit bureau (CB) data, in which the actual credit activities of most individuals are recorded at a high frequency in Korea. We construct over-indebtedness indicators from the CB data and then assess the predictability of forthcoming defaults. Based on the over-indebtedness indicators, we show how borrowers are distributed in terms of over-indebtedness and how the over-indebted differ from average borrowers in terms of their characteristics. Furthermore, we show how the aggregate credit risk in the household sector would change under macroeconomic distress by analyzing how each borrower's credit quality would be affected by adverse shocks. The findings of this paper may contribute to assessing household debt vulnerability and to enhancing regulatory and supervisory practices for financial stability.