• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk index

검색결과 2,793건 처리시간 0.026초

Breast Density and Risk of Breast Cancer in Asian Women: A Meta-analysis of Observational Studies

  • Bae, Jong-Myon;Kim, Eun Hee
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제49권6호
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    • pp.367-375
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: The established theory that breast density is an independent predictor of breast cancer risk is based on studies targeting white women in the West. More Asian women than Western women have dense breasts, but the incidence of breast cancer is lower among Asian women. This meta-analysis investigated the association between breast density in mammography and breast cancer risk in Asian women. Methods: PubMed and Scopus were searched, and the final date of publication was set as December 31, 2015. The effect size in each article was calculated using the interval-collapse method. Summary effect sizes (sESs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by conducting a meta-analysis applying a random effect model. To investigate the dose-response relationship, random effect dose-response meta-regression (RE-DRMR) was conducted. Results: Six analytical epidemiology studies in total were selected, including one cohort study and five case-control studies. A total of 17 datasets were constructed by type of breast density index and menopausal status. In analyzing the subgroups of premenopausal vs. postmenopausal women, the percent density (PD) index was confirmed to be associated with a significantly elevated risk for breast cancer (sES, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.52 to 3.21; $I^2=50.0%$). The RE-DRMR results showed that the risk of breast cancer increased 1.73 times for each 25% increase in PD in postmenopausal women (95% CI, 1.20 to 2.47). Conclusions: In Asian women, breast cancer risk increased with breast density measured using the PD index, regardless of menopausal status. We propose the further development of a breast cancer risk prediction model based on the application of PD in Asian women.

Risk assessment of heavy metals in soil based on the geographic information system-Kriging technique in Anka, Nigeria

  • Johnbull, Onisoya;Abbassi, Bassim;Zytner, Richard G.
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.150-158
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    • 2019
  • Soil contaminated with heavy metals from artisanal gold mining in Anka Local Government Area in Northwestern Nigeria was investigated to evaluate the human health risk as a result of heavy metals. Measured concentration of heavy metals and exposure parameters were used to estimate human carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk. GIS-based Kriging method was utilized to create a prediction maps of human health risks and probability maps of heavy metals concentrations exceeding their threshold limits. Hazard index calculation showed that 21 out of 23 locations are posing non-cancer risk for children. Adults and children are at high cancer risk in all locations as the total cancer risk exceeded $1{\times}10^{-6}$ (the lower limit CTR value). Kriging model showed that only a very small area in Anka has a hazard index of less than unity and cumulative target risk of less than $1{\times}10^{-4}$, indicating a significant carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children. The probability of heavy metals to exceed their threshold concentrations around the study area was also found to be high.

A TBM tunnel collapse risk prediction model based on AHP and normal cloud model

  • Wang, Peng;Xue, Yiguo;Su, Maoxin;Qiu, Daohong;Li, Guangkun
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제30권5호
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    • pp.413-422
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    • 2022
  • TBM is widely used in the construction of various underground projects in the current world, and has the unique advantages that cannot be compared with traditional excavation methods. However, due to the high cost of TBM, the damage is even greater when geological disasters such as collapse occur during excavation. At present, there is still a shortage of research on various types of risk prediction of TBM tunnel, and accurate and reliable risk prediction model is an important theoretical basis for timely risk avoidance during construction. In this paper, a prediction model is proposed to evaluate the risk level of tunnel collapse by establishing a reasonable risk index system, using analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, and using the normal cloud model theory. At the same time, the traditional analytic hierarchy process is improved and optimized to ensure the objectivity of the weight values of the indicators in the prediction process, and the qualitative indicators are quantified so that they can directly participate in the process of risk prediction calculation. Through the practical engineering application, the feasibility and accuracy of the method are verified, and further optimization can be analyzed and discussed.

Impact of Time Interval between Index Event and Stenting on Periprocedural Risk in Patients with Symptomatic Carotid Stenosis

  • Han, Wonsuck;Hwang, Gyojun;Oh, Sung Han;Lee, Jong Joo;Kim, Mi Kyung;Chung, Bong Sub;Rhim, Jong Kook;Sheen, Seung Hun;Kim, Taehyung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제63권5호
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    • pp.598-606
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    • 2020
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of time interval between index event and stenting on the periprocedural risk of stenting for symptomatic carotid stenosis and to determine the optimal timing of stenting. Methods : This retrospective study included 491 (322 symptomatic [65.6%] and 169 asymptomatic [34.4%]) patients undergoing carotid stenting. The symptomatic patients were categorized into Day 0-3, 4-7, 8-10, 11-14, 15-21, and >21 groups according to the time interval between index event and stenting. Periprocedural (≤30 days) risk for clinical (any neurological deterioration) and radiological (new infarction on postprocedural diffusion-weighted imaging) events of stenting in each time interval versus asymptomatic stenosis was calculated with logistic regression analysis adjusted for confounders, and provided as odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Results : Overall clinical event rate (4.3%) of stenting for symptomatic carotid stenosis was higher than that for asymptomatic stenosis (1.2%; OR, 3.979 [95% CI, 1.093-14.489]; p=0.036). Stenting in Day 0-3 (13.2%; OR, 10.997 [95% CI, 2.333-51.826]; p=0.002) and Day 4-7 (8.3%; OR, 6.775 [95% CI, 1.382-33.227]; p=0.018) was associated with high risk for clinical events. However, the clinical event rates in stenting after 7 days from index event (Day 8-10, 1.8%; Day 11-14, 2.5%; Day 15-21, 0%; Day >21, 2.9%) were not different from that in stenting for asymptomatic stenosis. Overall radiological event rate (55.6%) in symptomatic stenosis was also higher than that in asymptomatic stenosis (35.5%; OR, 2.274 [95% CI, 1.553-3.352]; p<0.001). The high risk for radiological events was maintained in all time intervals (Day 0-3 : 55.3%; OR, 2.224 [95% CI, 1.103-4.627]; p=0.026; Day 4-7 : 58.3%; OR, 2.543 [95% CI, 1.329-4.949]; p=0.005; Day 8-10 : 53.6%; OR, 2.096 [95% CI, 1.138-3.889]; p=0.018; Day 11-14 : 57.5%; OR, 2.458 [95% CI, 1.225-5.021]; p=0.012; Day 15-21 : 55.6%; OR, 2.271 [95% CI, 1.099-4.764]; p=0.028; Day >21 : 54.8%; OR, 2.203 [95% CI, 1.342-3.641]; p=0.002). Conclusion : This study showed that as stenting was delayed, the periprocedural risk for clinical events decreased. The clinical event risk was high only in stenting within 7 days and comparable with that for asymptomatic stenosis in stenting after 7 days from index event, although the radiological event risk was not affected by stenting timing. Therefore, our results suggest that delayed stenting after 7 days from symptom onset is a safe strategy for symptomatic stenosis.

울산항 위험물 환적부두 지정을 위한 폭발 위험성 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study of Explosion Risk Assessment for Designation of Dangerous Goods Transshipment Pier at Ulsan Port)

  • 강민균;이윤석;안영중
    • 한국항해항만학회지
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    • 제45권3호
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2021
  • 울산항 부두에 이중 접안하여 환적작업 중이던 케미컬 탱커선 폭발로 주변 선박화재 등 울산항 내에서 큰 피해가 발생하였다. 유사 사고의 재발을 방지하기 위한 후속 조치로 '항만 내 위험물 안전관리 종합대책'이 수립되었으며 사고 발생 시에 폭발 위험성과 항내 주요 시설에 대한 영향 등을 고려한 위험물 환적부두의 지정이 요구된다. 본 연구는 폭발 위험성 기반의 환적부두 제시를 위하여 울산항 주요 환적화물 대상의 Fire & Explosion Index 평가를 실시하였다. 스티렌모노머와 벤젠의 Fire & Explosion Index 평가결과 심각한 폭발 위험성을 확인하였고, 평가결과를 기준으로 노출반경을 산출 하였다. 노출반경 결과를 기반으로 주요 부두별 위험범위를 산정하였으며, 항만시설, 주변 위험시설 및 거주시설을 고려한 환적가능 부두 후보지로 12개 부두를 제시하였다. 본 연구는 위험반경만을 고려하였기 때문에 향후 실질적인 위험물 환적 부두의 지정 시에는 해상교통안전성, 부두 및 계류시설, 안전설비 및 비상대응을 위한 접근성 등을 종합적으로 고려하여 결정하여야 할 것이다.

붕소/실리콘 졸로 도포된 목재의 열위험성 평가 (Heat Risk Assessment of Wood Coated with Boron/Silicone Sol)

  • 진의;정영진
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.9-20
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 붕소/실리콘 화합물을 건축 내장재용 목재에 도포한 후 화재위험성을 열 위험성에대하여 화재성능지수와 화재성장지수를 중심으로 조사하였다. 화합물은 Boric acid와 Boronic acid 유도체를 Tetraethoxyorthosilicate와 반응시켜 합성하였다. 열방출 성질은 Cone calorimeter (ISO 5660-1)를 사용하여 측정하였으며 편백나무를 사용하였다. 화재강도는 외부 열 유속(External heat flux)을 50 kW/㎡로 고정시켰다. 연소시킨 후 측정된 화재성능지수는 편백나무와 비교하여 Boric acid/silicone (BA/Si) sol이 1.6배, Isobutylboronic Acid/silicone 졸 (IBBA/Si)과 Phenyl boronic acid/silicone 졸 (PBA/Si)은 각각 1.1배 증가하였다. 화재성능지수에 의한 화재위험성은 BA/Si < IBBA/Si ≈ PBA/Si 순으로 증가하였다. 화재성장지수는 편백나무와 비교하여 BA/Si와 IBBA/Si는 각각 94%, 8% 감소하였고 PBA/Si는 17% 증가하였다. 화재성장지수에 의한 화재위험성은 BA/Si < IBBA/Si < PBA/Si 순으로 증가하였다. 화재위험성을 종합적으로 평가하면 BA/Si < IBBA/Si < PBA/Si 순으로 높았다.

Role of $^{18}F$-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography in Gastric GIST: Predicting Malignant Potential Pre-operatively

  • Park, Jeon-Woo;Cho, Chang-Ho;Jeong, Duck-Su;Chae, Hyun-Dong
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.173-179
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: It is difficult to obtain biopsies from gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) prior to surgery because GISTs are submucoal tumors, despite being the most common nonepithelial neoplasms of the gastrointestinal tract. Unlike anatomic imaging techniques, PET-CT, which is a molecular imaging tool, can be a useful technique for assessing tumor activity and predicting the malignant potential of certain tumors. Thus, we aimed to evaluate the usefulness of PET-CT as a pre-operative prognostic factor for GISTs by analyzing the correlation between the existing post-operative prognostic factors and the maximum SUV uptake (SUVmax) of pre-operative 18F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) PET-CT. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on 26 patients who were diagnosed with gastric GISTs and underwent surgery after being examined with pre-operative FDG PET-CT. An analysis of the correlation bewteen (i) NIH risk classification and the Ki-67 proliferation index, which are post-operative prognostic factors, and (ii) the SUVmax of PET-CT, which is a pre-operative prognostic factor, was performed. Results: There were significant correlations between (i) SUVmax and (ii) Ki-67 index, tumor size, mitotic count, and NIH risk group (r=0.854, 0.888, 0.791, and 0.756, respectively). The optimal cut-off value for SUVmax was 3.94 between "low-risk malignancy" and "high-risk malignancy" groups. The sensitivity and specificity of SUVmax for predicting the risk of malignancy were 85.7% and 94.7%, respectively. Conclusions: The SUVmax of PET-CT is associated with Ki-67 index, tumor size, mitotic count, and NIH classification. Therefore, it is believed that PET-CT is a relatively safe, non-invasive diagnostic tool for assessing malignant potential pre-operatively.

노인 영양개선 전략 연구 : 건강 관련 요인 및 영양위험지표 분석 (Strategies to Improve Nutrition in the Elderly : An Analysis of Health Related Factors and the Nutritional Risk Index of the Elderly)

  • 임경숙;민영희;이태영
    • 대한지역사회영양학회지
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    • 제2권3호
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    • pp.376-387
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    • 1997
  • The elderly are the most rapidly growing segment of the population in Korea and the largest consumers of expensive medical care. It is reasonable to believe that improving the nutritional status would be beneficial to reducing morbidity and to impro- ving the quality of their lives. This study was conducted to assess the health status and the Nutritional Risk Index of the elderly, and to provide the basic data for the Elderly Nutrition Improvement Program at the Public Health Center. One hundred and forty seven(76 males. 71 females) aged 60 years and over living in Suwon, were assessed with anthropometric measurements, body fat analysis, blood pressure measurements, and a set of questionnaires about health and other related variables. Over half of them had less than a junior middle school education and were considered low income. The percentage of overweight and obese subjects was 33% by the BMI(Body Mass Index), and the prevalence of hypertension was 28$\%$(males) and 31$\%$(females). They had a lot of self-recognized health problems, the male elderly complained about more than the female elderly. In the case of psychological health status, however, the female elderly showed a higher proportions of depression than the male elderly(p$\ll$0.05). In social health status, the elderly had good relationships with friends and collegues, whereas they had poor relationships with their families. They had many nutritional risk factors, and smoking was the most prevalent risk factor for the male elderly and anemia was for the female elderly. The results of this study suggest that Elderly Nutrition Improvement Programs should be planned that can be easily followed. It would be helpful to design a program focusing on individual phychological and social health status, this would increase the efficiency of the program.

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장수위험과 금융자산활용비율을 고려한 은퇴소득준비도 평가 (Evaluating Retirement Income Readiness Considering Longevity Risk and Financial Asset Utilization Ratio)

  • 최현자;김민정;이지영;김민정
    • 가족자원경영과 정책
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.159-178
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to evaluate the retirement income readiness of Korea, a country that-considering its high property asset ratio-is seeing an unprecedented rapid progression of graying. The result of analyzing 6,589 non-retired households in Statistics Korea's Survey of Household Finances (2011) is as follows. First, the Retirement Readiness Index, considering annual income and asset utilization income before including longevity risk, was 70.6. The index increased to 89.5 when utilizing real assets excluding houses and exceeded 100 when utilizing houses. Second, when designating 100 to be the life expectancy and taking into consideration longevity risk, there results were 52.5, 63.7, and 81.1, respectively. Third, since it is less likely for one to use all current financial assets as post-retirement income, the study reviewed the changes in the Retirement Readiness Index by applying three different levels of asset utilization ratios (50%, 75%, and 100%), which refer to the conversion ratios of current assets to retirement assets. This study is significant in that it considers longevity risk and applies asset utilization ratios in various ways, outside of the assumption that all current financial assets will be used as post-retirement income, to take a more realistic approach to retirement readiness.

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남동해 연안 퇴적물 내 미량금속 분포 및 생태위해도 평가 (Trace Metal Distribution and Ecological Risk Assessment in Marine Sediments from the Southeast Coastal Areas of Korea)

  • 황동운;최민규;임재현;이인석;이가람;나수진
    • 한국수산과학회지
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    • 제56권4호
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    • pp.438-448
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    • 2023
  • The concentrations of trace metals and organic matters in marine sediments collected from southeast Korean coastal areas were investigated. The primary purpose of this study was to evaluate the contamination status, spatial distribution and potential ecological risks associated with the physiochemical composition in the studied areas. We found that the concentrations of trace metals in marine sediments were as follows: Fe > Mn > Zn > Cr > Pb > Cu > As > Cd > Hg. According to the sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) of Korea, concentrations of Zn, Cr, Cu and Cd at all sampling sites were below threshold effect levels (TEL). However, concentrations of As, Hg, and Pb (i.e., at the 94-98% of sampling sites), were below the TEL. In addition, concentration factors (CF) in the surveyed area were found to be associated with low ecological risks, whereas As, Hg, and Cu showed moderate to high risk levels in some inner parts of the studied bays. Finally, the pollution load index (PLI) and ecological risk index (ERI) of the elucidated metals were linked to moderate ecological risk, pointing to the possibility of being deleterious to some benthic organisms.