• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk index

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A method to evaluate the risk-based robustness index in blast-influenced structures

  • Abdollahzadeh, Gholamreza;Faghihmaleki, Hadi
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2017
  • Introduction of robustness index in the structure is done in three ways: deterministic robustness index, probabilistic robustness index, and risk-based robustness index. In past decades, there have been numerous researches to evaluate robustness index in both deterministic and probabilistic ways. In this research, by using a risk analysis, a risk-based robustness index has been defined for the structure. By creating scenarios in accordance with uncertainty parameters of critical and unexpected gas blast accident, a new method has been suggested for evaluating risk-based robustness index. Finally, a numerical example for the evaluation of risk-based robustness index of a four-storey reinforced concrete moment frame, designed and built based on Eurocode 8 code, has been presented with results showing a lower risk of robustness.

A Noise-Reduced Risk Aversion Index

  • Park, Beum-Jo;Cho, Hong Chong
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.67-85
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    • 2018
  • We propose a noise reduced risk aversion index for measuring risk aversion through a laboratory experiment to overcome disadvantages of the multiple pricing list format developed by Holt and Laury (2002). We use randomized multiple list choices with coarser classification and reward weighting, supplement the rank of risk aversion with extra individual characteristics of risk attitude, and construct an index of risk aversion by standardizing the risk aversion ranking with quantile normalization. Our method reduces multiple switching problems that noisy decision makers mistakenly commit in experimental approaches, so that it is free of the framing effect which severely occurred in the HL. Furthermore, the index doesn't utilize any specific utility function or probability weighting, which allows researcher to hold the independence axiom. Since our noise reduced index of risk aversion has many good traits, it is widely used and applied to reveal fundamental characteristics of risk-related behaviors in economics and finance regardless of experimental environment.

Risk Management for Preventing Workers' Deaths in Construction Machinery Work (건설기계작업 사망사고 예방을 위한 위험관리)

  • Yang, Seungsoo;Paik, Shinwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.16-23
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    • 2020
  • The use of construction machinery has been increasing every year due to the large scale, high-rise and lack of workers in construction work. On the other hand, deaths are on the rise every year due to inadequate risk management for construction machinery work. In addition, the number of deaths caused by the lack of signals or insufficient signals during construction machinery work is increasing rapidly, and it is deemed necessary to analyze the actual conditions and take countermeasures. Therefore this study has developed the Strength Risk Index (SRI) based on the Frequency Risk Index (FRI) and the 5W1H by analyzing in-depth deaths caused by construction machinery over the past five years. The risk index (RI) was assessed using the frequency and strength risk index derived to determine whether it is acceptable (acceptable risk < 0.25 ≦ unacceptable risk) and the risk assessment method for reducing risk was proposed by applying 3E (Engineering, Education, Enforcement) measures for each level of risk for unacceptable risk. It also proposed measures to improve the system, such as requirements for signal numbers, mandatory placement standards, and mandatory installation of side and rear monitoring cameras, as measures for accidents caused by failure to deploy signals or insufficient signals, which account for the highest proportion of deaths among construction machinery operators and workers.

Predicting the Potential Habitat and Risk Assessment of Amaranthus patulus using MaxEnt (Maxent를 활용한 가는털비름(Amaranthus patulus)의 잠재서식지 예측 및 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Yong Ho;Na, Chea Sun;Hong, Sun Hea;Sohn, Soo In;Kim, Chang Suk;Lee, In Yong;Oh, Young Ju
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.672-679
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to predict the potential distribution and risk of invasive alien plant, Amaranthus patulus, in an agricultural area of South Korea. We collected 254 presence localities of A. patulus using field survey and literature search and stimulated the potential distribution area of A. patulus using maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) with six climatic variables. Two different kinds of agricultural risk index, raster risk index and regional risk index, were estimated. The 'raster risk index' was calculated by multiplying the potential distribution by the field area in $1{\times}1km$ and 'regional risk index' was calculated by multiplying the potential distribution by field area proportion in the total field of South Korea. The predicted potential distribution of A. patulus was almost matched with actual presence data. The annual mean temperature had the highest contribution for distribution modeling of A. patulus. Area under curve (AUC) value of the model was 0.711. The highest regions were Gwangju for potential distribution, Jeju for 'raster risk index' and Gyeongbuk for 'regional risk index'. This different ranks among the index showed the importance about the development of various risk index for evaluating invasive plant risk.

A Determining Contingency Ranking Using the Weather Effects of the Power System (날씨효과를 고려한 전력계통의 상정사고 순위 결정)

  • 김경영;이승혁;김진오;김태균;전동훈;차승태
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.487-493
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    • 2004
  • The electric power industry throughout the world is undergoing considerable changes from the vertically integrated utility structure to the deregulated market. However, the deregulated electricity market is operated with respect to theory of economical efficiency, and therefore, the system operator requires data with fast contingency ranking for security of the bulk power system. This paper compares the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI) with the system performance index for power flow in the IEEE-RTS. The system performance index for power flow presents the power system stability. This paper presents fast calculation method for determining contingency ranking using the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI). The probabilistic risk index can be classified into the case of normal and adverse weather. This paper proposes calculation method using the probabilistic risk index in determining contingency ranking required for security under the deregulated electricity market.

Evaluation of Smoke Risk and Smoke Risk Rating for Combustible Substances from Fire (화재로부터 연소성 물질에 대한 연기위험성 및 연기위험성 등급 평가)

  • Chung, Yeong-Jin;Jin, Eui;You, Ji Sun
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.197-204
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    • 2021
  • This study investigated the smoke risk assessment of woods and plastics for construction materials, focusing on the smoke performance index-V (SPI-V), smoke growth index-V (SGI-V), and smoke risk index-VI (SRI-VI) according to a newly designed methodology. Spruce, Lauan, polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA), and polycarbonate (PC) were used for test pieces. Smoke characteristics of the materials were measured using a cone calorimeter (ISO 5660-1) equipment. The smoke performance index-V calculated after the combustion reaction was found to be 1.0 to 3.4 based on PMMA. Smoke risk by smoke performance index-V was increased in the order of PC, Spruce, Lauan and PMMA. Lauan and PMMA showed similar values. The smoke growth index-V was found to be 1.0 to 9.2 based on PMMA. Smoke risk by smoke growth index-V increased in the order of PMMA, PC, Spruce, and Lauan. COpeak production rates of all specimens were measured between 0.0021 to 0.0067 g/s. In conclusion, materials with a low smoke performance index-V and a high smoke growth index-V cause a high smoke risk from fire. Therefore, it is understood that the smoke risk from fire is high. It is collectively summarized by the smoke risk index-VI.

A Study on the Risk Index Model of Work Type in Architectural Construction Work (건축공사 공종별 위험지수 산정모델에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Seong-Rok;Go, Seong-Seok;Lee, Jong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the relation between the risk index using AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the risk index using Computing Model. For doing the objective, this research classified 22 work types in architectural construction work from the analysis Korean architectural standard specification and Korea occupational safety & health agency code. Based on the classified 22 work types in architectural construction work, the risk index of each work type was calculated by AHP and Computing Model. For verifying the correlation of risk index between AHP and Computing Model methods, SAS version 8.0 System, which is one of the statistics programs, was used.

Proposing a Method for Robustness Index Evaluation of the Structures Based on the Risk Analysis of Main Shock and Aftershock

  • Abdollahzadeh, Gholamreza;Faghihmaleki, Hadi
    • International journal of steel structures
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.1710-1722
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    • 2018
  • Investigating remained damages from terrible earthquakes, it could be concluded that some events including explosion because of defect and failure in the building mechanical facilities or caused by gas leak, firing, aftershocks, etc., which are occurred during or a few time after the earthquake, will increase the effects of damages. In this paper, by introducing a complete risk analysis which included direct and indirect risks for earthquake (the main shock) and aftershock, the corresponding robustness index was created that called as "robustness index sequential critical events risk-based". One of the main properties of the intended robustness index is using progressive collapse percentage in its evaluation. Then, in a numerical example for a 4-storey moment resisting steel frame structure, a method is presented for obtaining all effective parameters in robustness index evaluation based on the intended risk and at last its results were reported.

Development and Application of Risk Recovery Index using Machine Learning Algorithms (기계학습알고리즘을 이용한 위험회복지수의 개발과 활용)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.25-39
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    • 2016
  • Asset prices decline sharply and stock markets collapse when financial crisis happens. Recently we have encountered more frequent financial crises than ever. 1998 currency crisis and 2008 global financial crisis triggered academic researches on early warning systems that aim to detect the symptom of financial crisis in advance. This study proposes a risk recovery index for detection of good opportunities from financial market instability. We use SVM classifier algorithms to separate recovery period from unstable financial market data. Input variables are KOSPI index and V-KOSPI200 index. Our SVM algorithms show highly accurate forecasting results on testing data as well as training data. Risk recovery index is derived from our SVM-trained outputs. We develop a trading system that utilizes the suggested risk recovery index. The trading result records very high profit, that is, its annual return runs to 121%.

Fire Risk Index and Grade Evaluation of Combustible Materials by the New Chung's Equation-XII (새로운 Chung's equation-XII에 의한 연소성 물질의 화재위험성지수 및 등급 평가)

  • Yeong-Jin Chung;Eui Jin
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.388-396
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    • 2023
  • The evaluation of fire risk for combustible materials was carried out using Chung's equations-X, Chung's equations-XI, and Chung's equation-XII, which were newly established. The fire risk index-XII (FRI-XII) and fire risk rating (FRR) were calculated for specimens including camphor tree, cherry, rubber tree, and elm. The combustion characteristics were determined using a cone calorimeter according to ISO 5660-1. Chung's equations caculated the fire performance index-X (FPI-X) and fire growth index-X (FGI-X) values ranged from 89.34 to 1696.75 s2 /kW and from 0.0006 to 0.0107 kW/s2 , respectively. In addition, the fire performance index-XI (FPI-XI) and fire growth index-XI (FGI-XI) varied from 0.08 to 1.48 and from 0.67 to 11.89, respectively. The fire risk index-XII (FRI-XII), which is an indicator of fire risk, showed that camphor tree had a value of 148.63 (fire risk rating: G), indicating a very high fire risk. This suggests that combustible materials with a high concentration of volatile organic compounds have lower FPI-X and FPI-XI values, higher FGI-X and FGI-XI values, and consequently higher FRI-XII values, indicating an increased fire risk.