• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-11
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• 2011

In much the same way as the US Lehman crisis of 2008-2009 severely impacted the European economy through financial market dislocation, a European banking crisis would materially impact the US economy through a generalized increase in global risk aversion. A deepening of the European crisis could very well derail the US economic recovery and have a harmful impact on the Asian economies. This kind of vicious circle could be a bad news to the shipping companies. The purpose of the study is to predict the Baltic Dry Index representing the shipping business during the period of 2012 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2011. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is also calculated. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors, however, are somewhat higher than normally expected. This reveals that it is very difficult to predict the BDI The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market will be bearish in 2012. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.38-53
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• 2020

Purpose - A financial crash triggers asset fire sales by foreign investors and, as a consequence, the price of domestic assets severely decreases. Domestic investors take advantage of these low prices by replacing foreign assets with domestic assets, which helps to alleviate the liquidity shock caused by foreigners. However, is the amount of capital retrenchment by domestic investors sufficient to protect the Korean economy from capital stop by foreign investors during financial crisis? This paper answers this question and suggests the implications of this phenomenon for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We estimate the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and various financial crises such as banking, currency, debt, and inflation crises using the complementary log-log model. Specifically, we use data of gross capital flows to differentiate between the role of foreign and domestic investors in financial markets. Capital stop and retrenchment designate a sharp decrease in gross capital inflows and outflows, respectively. Findings - Capital stop is significantly associated with financial crises, especially currency and debt crises. This implies that increased risk aversion during times of financial turmoil encourages foreign investors to retrench their investments, worsening liquidity shocks. Conversely, capital retrenchment is not significantly associated with such crises. The results show that, although financial crises reduce gross capital outflows, the reduction is not as large as that with capital inflows. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, this study investigates how domestic investors behave during times of financial distress by studying gross capital flows-not net capital flows. Second, we concentrate on sharp changes in capital flows during crises. Third, we examine the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and financial crises in general, not specific events.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.111-128
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• 2023

With the development of artificial intelligence technology, interest in data-based product preference estimation and personalized recommender systems is increasing. However, if the recommendation is not suitable, there is a risk that it may reduce the purchase intention of the customer and even extend to a huge financial loss due to the characteristics of the financial product. Therefore, developing a recommender system that comprehensively reflects customer characteristics and product preferences is very important for business performance creation and response to compliance issues. In the case of financial products, product preference is clearly divided according to individual investment propensity and risk aversion, so it is necessary to provide customized recommendation service by utilizing accumulated customer data. In addition to using these customer behavioral characteristics and transaction history data, we intend to solve the cold-start problem of the recommender system, including customer demographic information, asset information, and stock holding information. Therefore, this study found that the model proposed deep learning-based collaborative filtering by deriving customer latent preferences through characteristic information such as customer investment propensity, transaction history, and financial product information based on customer transaction log records was the best. Based on the customer's financial investment mechanism, this study is meaningful in developing a service that recommends a high-priority group by establishing a recommendation model that derives expected preferences for untraded financial products through financial product transaction data.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.43-63
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• 2017

I focused on LVTS compare with Fedwire to advance a research effects in this paper. The Fedwire Funds Service is generally used to make large-value, time-critical payments. The Federal Reserve Banks provide the Fedwire Funds Service, a real-time gross settlement system that enables participants to initiate funds transfer that are immediate, final, and irrevocable once processed. The Fedwire Funds Service is a credit transfer service. While, The LVTS(Large Value Transfer System) is the high value electronic wire system that facilitates the transfer of irrevocable payments in canadian dollars across the country. Through LVTS, funds can be transferred between participating financial institutions virtually instantaneously in a fully collateralized environment. Thus in this article, first of all, I considered features of payment system between LVTS and Fedwire. Second, I analyzed the governing structure and legal background. Third, I focused on the operational policy and risk aversion policy. Lastly, I suggested that the payment and banking system have to assume, with good reason, more efficiently accurately and securely operation together with conclusion.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.109-118
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• 1993

Development process of agricultural technology has been studied with a case study of Korean agriculture. Technological is considered as a transformer of inputs into outputs and hence technological appropriateness, an important aspect of agricultural development strategies, is considered as a dynamic concepts. Considering the concept of agricultural system as a delivery system for providing essential materials and services to producers and consumers, it has been divided into two major groups of dimensions vis. external challenge dimensions and internal response dimensions. Market, investment and agro-ecosystem constitute the external challenge dimensions : whereas trade , technology as well as production and resources allocation constitute internal response dimensions. The system manager is responsible for maintaining equilibrium in the mentioned six sub-systems. Two kinds of alternatives paths of technological development viz. land saving technology and labour saving technolog have been studied. Technology is considered as a combination of four basic components viz. facilities, abilities, facts and frameworks. Adoption of innovation in agriculture depends on profitability, awareness, risk aversion, financial capacity, institutional infrastructure, availability of physical inputs and adaptability to the local conditions. For a cast study of Korea, changes in the agricultural system through external challenge dimensions are investigated. The impacts of industrialization on agro-ecosystem reported are shift of labour from the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors and continuously increasing demand of farm the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors accompanied by increase in land prices. The impacts on the commodity market discussed are shift in demand from rice, barley and other cereals to meat , dairy products and vegetables : and increasing in supply capacity of agricultural inputs. The process of agricultural development from 1962 to 19 1 9 (i.e. from start of the first to the end of the sixth five year plan) are also discussed in details with several policy measures taken. The trend of agricultural income and productivity are also analyzed. The main cause of increase in the agricultural income is considered as increase in labour productivity. The study revealed that during the span of 1965-88, holding size has not changed significantly, but both the land and labour productivity increased and so did the agricultural income. R&D activities in Korea have changed over time in three stages vix. import of improved technology, localization by adaptive research and technological mastery. For the new technology to be made affordable to farmers, policy measures like fertilizer and food grain exchange system, dual price system in rice and barely and loan for machinery were strengthened.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.131-154
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• 2018

While strong investments on startup and venture ecosystem prosper worldwide, growing interest on nurturing startup ecosystem in Korea is also on its way. However, korean entrepreneurial ecosystem currently results few successful business models with those continuous development of itself compared to the one in China, which is breeding more than 50% of unicorns internationally. Accordingly, this study examined how people in the venture ecosystem, especially in IT industry feel about themselves and startup itself and compared startup ecosystem in Seoul, Korea to the one in Chengdu, China considering each of economic, social and administrational environment. The study tried to provide an implication about the future orientation of Korea's starup and venture ecosystem to policy makers and the ones inside the environment to make a better one. Therefore, the study choose Seoul, Korea and Chengdu, China as geological specimens of startup ecosystem and conduct qualitative study by interviewing selected ones who work in startup incubator, accelerator specified to IT industry and started their own business in IT industry funded by startup reward program. The study categorize the result in social, economic, and administrative parts and screens whether the interviewees from both Korea and China have similar opinions toward each of questions and can be translated to have tendency or not in each part of study. According to the study, the national recognition of startup should be moved from means of maintenance such as restaurants, franchise business to IT startup especially based on software business for the sustainable flourish in Korean venture ecosystem. Investors including accelerator, Angel investors and VCs should be less risk-aversion and therefore prefer stake purchase to solely giving subsidies. The role of governors should be limited to be a middleman of the network, connecting each people in need inside the ecosystem and their reward program should focus on nurturing the growing ones, not just multiplying the numbers of startups to expand the size of entrepreneurial ecosystem. Since this study indicated that entire revision of startup ecosystem should be applied to make a better one, it could be used to design future entrepreneurial infrastructure and the ways of activating startup ecosystem elsewhere in Korea.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.1-25
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• 2011

Available evidence suggests that the average marginal propensity to consume (MPC) from the 2001 tax rebate in the US was not nearly as large as that from previous tax cuts. We examine if this phenomenon can be explained by the fact that the widespread use of credit cards has made borrowing accessible for most US households by constructing a model that simulates the dynamic effect of relaxed borrowing constraints. Our model uses Kreps-Porteus preferences which account for independent measures of relative risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, both of which can theoretically affect the willingness to save or spend. Our model shows that the average MPC drops substantially immediately after borrowing constraints are relaxed because few consumers have binding borrowing constraints at that time. The model also shows that consumers gradually reduce their wealth after borrowing constraints are relaxed, causing more of them to have binding constraints over time, which in turn causes the average MPC to rise gradually to a new steady state value that is slightly lower than the original value. This dynamic pattern of the MPC suggests that a greater ability to borrow with credit cards could explain the lower effectiveness of the 2001 tax rebate. In addition, the model predicts that consumers choose to hold lower amounts of liquid assets for precautionary reasons when they have a greater ability to borrow unsecured debt.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.8-17
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• 2017

Using 1855 observations from 5 years-371 firms panel data during 2010 to 2014 in Chinese stock exchanges, this study examines the impact of managers' ownership on R & D expenditures. The empirical study finds that when firms are state-owned, managers' ownership have negative relation with the level of R & D expenses as well as the likelihood of executing R & D investment, implying that managers are less likely to invest in high risky projects due to managerial ownership's entrenchment effects to pursue private benefits rather than alignment of interest effect as shareholders. The empirical study also finds that when firms are private-owned, managerial ownership are inverse U shaped related to the level of R & D expenses, implying that managers are less likely to invest in high risky projects due to increasing risk aversion resulting from concentration of private wealth at its high level while managers are more likely to invest in high risky projects due to increasing incentives as shareholders at its low level. The results support that the effects of managerial ownership on R & D expenses may be different according to the ownership type of Chinese listed firms.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.607-618
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• 2023

Pervasive research underscores the direct correlation between an enhanced safety climate and a marked reduction in accidents. The intricacies of safety climate are governed by three pivotal strata: organizational management, on-site operations, and the broader enterprise framework. Within an organizational context, sustaining optimal performance across these layers poses a considerable challenge, often attributable to the constraints of available managerial bandwidth. It becomes imperative, then, to conceive a phased enhancement blueprint for the safety climate. To orchestrate this blueprint with precision, a discerning understanding of the hierarchy of safety climate metrics is essential, which subsequently guides judicious managerial resource allocation. This investigation is anchored in elucidating the hierarchical significance of safety climate metrics through the Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). Implementing the AHP framework, both a questionnaire was disseminated and a subsequent analysis undertaken, culminating in the extraction of relative priorities of safety climate determinants. Consequent to this analysis, "workers' safety prioritization and risk aversion" emerged as the foremost dimension, holding a significance weight of 0.1900. Furthermore, within the detailed elements, "unwavering adherence to safety mandates amidst demanding operational constraints" ranked supreme, manifesting a weight of 0.6663. The findings encapsulated in this study are poised to be foundational in sculpting improvements at an institutional level and devising policies, all with the end goal of fostering an exemplar safety climate within construction arenas.

• Korean small business review
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.79-105
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• 2020

While individual enterprises with different objectives each other within supply chains require a variety of resources to achieve their own seeking goals and performances, it is necessary to form interdependent relationships among the enterprises to secure the resources what they need, as the individual enterprises are supposed to have limitations on such as time, space and cost to secure all the resources. In this process, conflict possibilities rise and opportunistic behaviors increase due to those environmental factors such as unbalanced information among enterprises, limited rationality, pursuit of interests, and risk aversion. Those existing studies on conflicts in the field of supply chains have limitations in that they failed to present specific conflict management strategies based on the conflict types from the perspective of the conflict resolution mechanism as the studies have made only focused on investigating the causes of conflicts and the impact of conflicts on performance. In this study, therefore, it used the TKI model of Kilmann and Thomas(1977) to subdivide the conflict management strategies in the process of transactions within supply chains by enterprises, and looked into the impact on partnership and performance according to each strategy. As the results, it showed that those types of conflict management strategies such as concession type and cooperation type had a positive(+) impact on the relationship commitment as a factor of partnership, and it was identified that the relationship commitment had a positive(+) impact on performance. In other words, it can be considered that the enterprises making use of the concession type & the cooperation type conflict management strategies under the situation of conflict would be able to have a very positive impact on their performances if they can make good relationship commitment such as investments in and efforts for the sustainable relationship along with the conflict management, while recognizing the importance of relationship. The most important meaning of this study lies on in terms of that it would be contributable to strengthening the partnership between enterprises and minimizing the risk of supply chains caused by conflicts through these results from the study.