• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.281-293
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• 2021

Uncertainties in geomechanical input parameters which mainly related to inappropriate data acquisition and estimation due to lack of sufficient calibration information, have led wellbore instability not yet to be fully understood or addressed. This paper demonstrates a workflow of employing Quantitative Risk Assessment technique, considering these uncertainties in terms of rock properties, pore pressure and in-situ stresses to makes it possible to survey not just the likelihood of accomplishing a desired level of wellbore stability at a specific mud pressure, but also the influence of the uncertainty in each input parameter on the wellbore stability. This probabilistic methodology in conjunction with Monte Carlo numerical modeling techniques was applied to a case study of a well. The response surfaces analysis provides a measure of the effects of uncertainties in each input parameter on the predicted mud pressure from three widely used failure criteria, thereby provides a key measurement for data acquisition in the future wells to reduce the uncertainty. The results pointed out that the mud pressure is tremendously sensitive to UCS and SHmax which emphasize the significance of reliable determinations of these two parameters for safe drilling. On the other hand, the predicted safe mud window from Mogi-Coulomb is the widest while the Hoek-Brown is the narrowest and comparing the anticipated collapse failures from the failure criteria and breakouts observations from caliper data, indicates that Hoek-Brown overestimate the minimum mud weight to avoid breakouts while Mogi-Coulomb criterion give better forecast according to real observations.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.28 no.7
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• pp.1111-1119
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• 2022

Tourism projects through islands in the waters of Sinan-gun became active, and as a result, a total of 13 marine bridges connecting islands were completed. However, the marine bridge constructed in the fairway is dangerous for traffic. Particularly, in the case of the marine bridge connecting two islands, the width of the fairway is extremely narrow, therefore the risk is higher. In this study, we evaluated the risk of collision between marine bridge piers and ships using the IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Program (IWRAP), a risk assessment model for port waterways, based on a maritime traffic survey on the coastal bridge in Sinan-gun. The results, indicated that No.1 Sinan bridge had the highest probability of collision and most of the transit ships were coastal passenger ships. In addition, No.1 Sinan bridge was the place where the most collision accidents occurred among the marine bridge piers in the target sea, and the cause this study was analyzed. An analysis of the satellite images of the sea environment of No.1 Sinan bridge using an image processing method, confirmed that obstacles that could not be seen in the chart existed nearby the bridge. As a result, traffic was observed to be concentrated in one direction, unlike two-way traffic, which is a method of inducing traffic of bridges to avoid obstacles. The risk cause analysis method using the image processing technique of this study is expected to be used as a basic research method for analyzing the risk factors of island bridge in the future.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.665-676
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• 2017

Over the past several years, sea trade have increased traffic by ships which highlighted a problem of unwanted species invading the surrounding seas through ship's ballast water discharge. Maritime trade volume has continuously increased worldwide and the problem still exists. The respective countries are spending billions of dollars in an effort to clean up the contamination and prevent pollution. As part of an effort to solve marine environmental problem, BWM(Ballast Water Management) convention was adopted at a diplomatic conference on Feb. 13 2004. In order to comply harmoniously this convention by each country. This convention will be effective after 12 months from the date which 30 countries ratified accounting for more than 35% of the world merchant shipping volume. On Sep. 8 2016, Finland ratified this convention and effective condition was satisfied as 52 states and world merchant vessel fleet 35.1441%. Thus, after Sep. 8 2017, all existing vessels shall be equipped with BWTS(Ballast Water Treatment System) in accordance with D-2 Regulation, which physically handles ballast water from ballast water exchange system(D-1 Regulation). In this study, we analyzed in detail the optimal design method using the Risk Analysis and Evaluation technique which is mainly used in the manufacturing factory or the risky work site comparing with the traditional design concept method applying various criteria. The Risk Assessment Method is a series of processes for finding the Risk Factors in the design process, analyzing a probility of the accident and size of the accident and then quantifying the Risk Incidence and finally taking measures. In this study, this method was carried out for Electrolysis treatment type on DWT 180K Bulk Carrier using "HAZOP Study" method among various methods. In the Electrolysis type, 63 hazardous elements were identified.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.29 no.10 s.241
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• pp.1392-1398
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• 2005

API 581 guideline provides a methodology for calculating the risks of equipments in refinery or petrochemical plant. However, especially in part of the consequence of failure, there is a major limitation of its application to the petrochemical plant directly since only a representative material is considered in calculating the risk while the equipment is composed of numerous materials. The objectives of this paper are to propose an enhanced risk-based inspection (RBI) technique to resolve shortcomings inclusive of the above issue and to assess the risks of typical petrochemical equipments. In this respect, a program incorporating material database was developed to fully incorporate the characteristics of different materials. The proposed RBI program consists of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk evaluation modules in which toxic materials as well as representative materials were selected automatically for comparison to those in the current guideline. It has been applied to assess the risks of equipments in ethylene facilities of petrochemical plants. Thereby, more realistic evaluation results were obtained and applicability of the proposed RBI program was proven.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.559-575
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• 2021

Due to the increase in ground excavation work, the possibility of ground subsidence accidents is increasing. And it is very difficult to prevent these risk fundamentally through institutional reinforcement such as the special law for underground safety management. As for the various cases of urban ground excavation practice, the ground subsidence behavior characteristics which is predicted using various information before excavation showed a considerable difference that could not be ignored compared to the results real construction data. Changes in site conditions such as seasonal differences in design and construction period, changes in construction methods depending on the site conditions and long-term construction suspension due to various reasons could be considered as the main causes. As the countermeasures, the safety management system through various construction information is introduced, but there is still no suitable system which can predict the effect of excavation and risk assessment. In this study, a web-based system was developed in order to predict the degree of impact on the ground subsidence and surrounding structures in advance before ground excavation and evaluate the risk in the design and construction of urban ground excavation projects. A system was built using time series analysis technique that can predict the current and future behavior characteristics such as ground water level and settlement based on past field construction records with field monitoring data. It was presented as a geotechnical data visualization (GDV) technology for risk reduction and disaster management based on web-based system, Using this newly developed web-based assessment system, it is possible to predict ground excavation impact prediction and risk assessment.

• Toxicological Research
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.81-91
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• 2012

Many risk factors exist for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting (CINV). This study utilized a multivariate projection technique to identify which risk factors were predictive of CINV in clinical practice. A single-centre, prospective, observational study was conducted from January 2007~July 2010 in Singapore. Patients were on highly (HECs) and moderately emetogenic chemotherapies with/without radiotherapy. Patient demographics and CINV risk factors were documented. Daily recording of CINV events was done using a standardized diary. Principal component (PC) analysis was performed to identify which risk factors could differentiate patients with and without CINV. A total of 710 patients were recruited. Majority were females (67%) and Chinese (84%). Five risk factors were potential CINV predictors: histories of alcohol drinking, chemotherapy-induced nausea, chemotherapy-induced vomiting, fatigue and gender. Period (ex-/current drinkers) and frequency of drinking (social/chronic drinkers) differentiated the CINV endpoints in patients on HECs and anthracycline-based, and XELOX regimens, respectively. Fatigue interference and severity were predictive of CINV in anthracycline-based populations, while the former was predictive in HEC and XELOX populations. PC analysis is a potential technique in analyzing clinical population data, and can provide clinicians with an insight as to what predictors to look out for in the clinical assessment of CINV. We hope that our results will increase the awareness among clinician-scientists regarding the usefulness of this technique in the analysis of clinical data, so that appropriate preventive measures can be taken to improve patients' quality of life.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.91 no.3
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• pp.279-289
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• 2024

The purpose of this study is to represent a useful alternative for the preliminary seismic vulnerability assessment of existing reinforced concrete buildings by introducing a statistical approach employing the binary logistic regression technique. Two different predictive statistical models, namely full and reduced models, were generated utilizing building characteristics obtained from the damage database compiled after 1999 Düzce earthquake. Among the inspected building parameters, number of stories, overhang ratio, priority index, soft story index, normalized redundancy ratio and normalized lateral stiffness index were specifically selected as the predictor variables for vulnerability classification. As a result, normalized redundancy ratio and soft story index were identified as the most significant predictors affecting seismic vulnerability in terms of life safety performance level. In conclusion, it is revealed that both models are capable of classifying the set of buildings being severely damaged or collapsed with a balanced accuracy of 73%, hence, both are able to filter out high-priority buildings for life safety performance assessment. Thus, in this study, having the same high accuracy as the full model, the reduced model using fewer predictors is proposed as a simple and viable classifier for determining life safety levels of reinforced concrete buildings in the preliminary seismic risk assessment.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.221-235
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• 2015

Risk assessment is an important phase of risk management. It is the stage in which risk is measured thoroughly to achieve effective management. Some factors such as probability and impact of risk have been used in the literature related to construction projects. Because in high-rise projects safety issues are paramount, this study has tried to develop a quantifying technique that takes into account three factors: probability, impact and Safety Performance Index (SPI) where the SPI is defined as the capability of an appropriate response to reduce or limit the effect of an event after its occurrence with regard to safety pertaining to a project. Regarding risk-related literatures which cover an uncertain subject, the proposed method developed in this research is based on a fuzzy logic approach. This approach entails a questionnaire in which the subjectivity and vagueness of responses is dealt with by using triangular fuzzy numbers instead of linguistic terms. This method returns a Risk Critical Point (RCP) on a zoning chart that places risks under categories: critical, critical-probability, critical-impact, and non-critical. The high-rise project in the execution phase has been taken as a case study to confirm the applicability of the proposed method. The monitoring results showed that the RCP method has the inherent ability to be extended to subsequent applications in the phases of risk response and control.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.691-702
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• 2013

This review paper summarizes the theory, application, and potential drawbacks of diffusive gradient in thin film (DGT) probe which is a widely used in-situ passive sampling technique for monitoring inorganic contaminants in aquatic environments. The DGT probe employs a series of layers including a filter membrane, a diffusive hydrogel, and an ionic exchange resin gel in a plastic unit. The filter side is exposed to an aquatic environment after which dissolved inorganic contaminants, such as heavy metals and nuclides, diffuse through the hydrogel and are accumulated in the resin gel. After retrieval, the contaminants in the resin gel are extracted by strong acid or base and the concentrations are determined by analytical instruments. Then aqueous concentrations of the inorganic contaminants can be estimated from a mathematical equation. The DGT has also been used to monitor nutrients, such as ${PO_4}^{3-}$, in lakes, streams, and estuaries, which might be helpful in assessing eutrophic potential in aquatic environments. DGT is a robust in-situ passive sampling techniques for investigating bioavailability, toxicity, and speciation of inorganic contaminants in aquatic environments, and can be an effective monitoring tool for risk assessment.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.16 no.5 s.64
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• pp.357-367
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• 2006

Recently, as the construction of new railway and the relocation of existing line increase, tunnel structures grow longer. The railway fire accidents in long tunnel bring large damages of human life and disaster. The interest of safety in long tunnel have a growing and the safety standard of long tunnel is tightening. For that reason, at the planning of long tunnel, the optimum design of safety facility in long tunnel for minimizing the risks and satisfying the safety standard is needed. For the reasonable design of long railway tunnel considering high safety, qualitative estimation for tunnel safety is required. In this study, QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) technique is applied to design of long railway tunnel for assuring the safety function and estimating the risk of safety. The case study for safety design in long railway tunnel is tarried out to verifying the QRA technique for two railway tunnels. Thus, the inclined and vertical shaft for escape way and safety facilities in long tunnel are planned, and the risks of tunnel safety for each case are estimated quantitatively.