• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.1-6
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• 2022

Purpose: To overcome the question that depends too much on expert's subjective judgment in traditional risk identification, this paper structure the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model of the risk identification of project, to research the risk identification of the project. Research design, data and methodology: This paper constructs the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model. Through iterative algorithm of AHP analysis, make sure the important degree of the sub project in risk analysis, then combine expert's subjective judgment with objective quantitative analysis, and distinguish the risk through identification models. Meanwhile, the concrete method of multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is probed. Using the index weights to analyse project risks is discussed in detail. Results: The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm is proposed in the paper, at first the method of fuzzy sets core is used to optimize the fuzzy relation matrix. It improves the capability of the algorithm. Then, the method of entropy weight is used to establish weight vectors. This makes the computation process fair and open. And thereby, the uncertainty of the evaluation result brought by the subjectivity can be avoided effectively and the evaluation result becomes more objective and more reasonable. Conclusions: In this paper, we use an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate a railroad engineering project risk. It can give a more reliable result for a reference of decision making.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.23-32
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• 2023

Purpose: This study examines the effect of full information disclosure on seller profit when there exists information asymmetry between sellers and buyers, focusing on the risk averseness of buyers. By investigating the interaction between product quality and perceived risk through online sales data, we attempt to figure out the incentive structure of full information disclosure specifically when buyers are risk-averse, so that we can suggest more feasible information disclosure strategy to sellers. Research design, data and methodology: Our empirical model analyzes the sales data of collectible goods from a major online seller using Poisson regression. In our model, we have specifically considered risk-averseness of buyers by estimating the interaction effect between the product quality and perceived risk on seller profit, aiming for a more precise empirical analysis on sellers' incentive structure of full disclosure. Results: Our empirical analysis strongly supports the effect of interaction between product quality and perceived risk, showing that the incentive for full disclosure is much stronger when product quality is higher, and vice versa. Therefore, sellers are strongly encouraged to voluntarily reveal product weaknesses when their product quality is higher than average, while it is more profitable to hide any product defects when quality claim is lower than average. Conclusions: This study supports the related literature by confirming economic incentives for full disclosure, and also supplements and strengthens previous studies by presenting that the effect of interaction between product quality and perceived risk strongly affects seller profit. Our unique finding supports both mandatory disclosure and voluntary disclosure arguments and presents practical implications to marketing managers by suggesting that seller's incentive for revealing weaknesses depends on the level of seller's product quality.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.373-388
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• 2016

Purpose: This paper suggests a hierarchical time delay model to evaluate failure risks in FMEA(failure modes and effects analysis). In place of the conventional RPN(risk priority number), a more reasonable and objective risk metric is proposed under hierarchical failure cause structure considering time delay between a failure mode and its causes. Methods: The structure of failure modes and their corresponding causes are analyzed together with the time gaps between occurrences of causes and failures. Assuming the severity of a failure depends on the length of the delayed time for corrective action, a severity model is developed. Using the expected severity, a risk priority metric is defined. Results: For linear and quadratic types of severity, nice forms of expected severity are derived and a meaningful metric for risk evaluation is defined. Conclusion: The suggested REM(risk evaluation metric) provides a more reasonable and objective risk measure than the conventional RPN for FMEA.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.437-447
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• 2018

Computational cost is one of the major obstacles for detailed risk analysis of structures. This paper puts forward a methodology for efficient probabilistic seismic loss assessment of structures using the Endurance Time (ET) analysis and the first-order reliability method (FORM). The ET analysis efficiently yields the structural responses for a continuous range of intensities through a single response-history analysis. Taking advantage of this property of ET, FORM is employed to estimate the annual rate of exceedance for the loss components. The proposed approach is an amalgamation of two analysis approaches, ET and FORM, that significantly lower the computational costs. This makes it possible to evaluate the seismic risk of complex systems. The probability distribution of losses due to the structural and non-structural damage as well as injuries and fatalities of a prototype structure are estimated using the proposed methodology. This methodology is an alternative to the prevalent risk analysis framework of the total probability theorem. Hence, the risk estimates of the proposed approach are compared with those from the total probability theorem as a benchmark. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement between the two methods while a significantly lower computational demand for the proposed approach.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.292-301
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• 2009

The employment of risk management theory in Urban Disaster Management System (UDMS) has become an important trend in recent years. The viewpoint of risk management is mainly a comprehensive risk assessment of various internal and external factors, and a subsequent handling of risks. Through continuous and systematic accumulation and analysis of risk information, disaster prevention and rescue system is established. Taking risk management theory as the foundation, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has developed a series of UDMS in the mega-cities all over the world. With this system as a common platform, OECD cooperates with different cities to develop disaster prevention and rescue system consisting of vulnerability assessment methods, risk assessment and countermeasures. The paper refers to the urban disaster vulnerability assessment and risk management of OECD and the mega-cities of different advanced and developed countries in the world, and then constructs a preliminarily drafted structure for the vulnerability assessment methods and risk management mechanism in the metropolitan districts of Taiwan.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.338-343
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• 2013

Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) as a delivery method fully capitalizes on an integrated project team that takes advantage of the knowledge of all team members to maximize project outcomes. IPD is currently the highest form of collaboration available because all three core project stakeholders, owner, designer and contractor, are aligned to the same purpose. Compared with traditional project delivery approaches such as Design-Bid-Build (DBB), Design-Build (DB), and CM at-Risk, IPD is distinguished in that it eliminates the adversarial nature of the business by encouraging transparency, open communication, honesty and collaboration among all project stakeholders. The team appropriately shares the project risk and reward. Sharing reward is easy, while it is hard to fairly share a failure. So the compensation structure and the contingency in IPD are very different from those in traditional delivery methods and they are expected to encourage motivation, inspiration and creativity of all project stakeholders to achieve project success. This paper investigates the compensation structure in IPD and provides a method to determine the proper level of contingency allocation to reduce the risk of cost overrun. It also proposes a method in which contingency could be used as a functional monetary incentive when established to produce the desired level of collaboration in IPD. Based on the compensation structure scenario discovered, a probabilistic contingency calculation model was created by evaluating the random nature of changes and various risk drivers. The model can be used by the IPD team to forecast the probability of the cost overrun and equip the IPD team with confidence to really enjoy the benefits of collaborative team work.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.5 no.2 s.18
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• pp.115-122
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• 2004

This study identifies various risk factors associated with activities of early construction stage, then establishes the Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS) by classifying the risks into the three groups; Common risks, risks for Earth works, and risks for Foundation works. The Common risks are identified and classified by considering various aspects of the early construction stage such as financial, political, constructional aspects, etc. The risks for Earth works and Foundation works are identified in detail by surveying technical specifications, relevant claim cases and interviewing with experts. These risks are classified based on the Wok Breakdown Structure(WBS) of the early construction stage. The WBS presented in this study classifies the works of early construction stage into four categories; excavation, sheeting works, foundation works, footing works. This study suggests a risk analysis method using fuzzy theory for construction projects. Construction risks are generally evaluated as vague linguistic value by subjective decision making. Fuzzy theory is a proper method to quantify vague conditions of construction activities. Therefore, this study utilizes fuzzy theory to analyse construction risks. The weight of risks is estimated by reflecting the interrelationship among risk factors from absolute weights obtained by fuzzy measure into the relative weights by Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). The interrelationship is estimated by Sugeno-fuzzy measure.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.33 no.A
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• pp.3-8
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• 2013

Reduction of risk plays a pivotal role in the development of medical instruments. A hyperbaric oxygen chamber, as a medical device, is known to help medical therapy for diversity of diseases through provision of high purity oxygen. The use of hyperbaric oxygen is expected to increase in the future and study to rigorously examine reliability and safety is needed. We have performed risk assessment for a newly developed hyperbaric oxygen chamber in this study. We first briefly discussed the system structure and concept of risk assessment for the study. Based on the hazards identified, we performed preliminary hazard analysis for the chamber.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.553-561
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• 2009

Risk analysis of highway sign supporting structures and sound barriers was done. Stochastic wind load was modeled by using extreme value distribution from site measurement and the variability of structural parameters was considered. Limit state functions were defined to assess structural stability by wind and risk of highway facilities was analyzed by combining wind hazard. According to the numerical analysis results, sound barrier post shows significantly higher risk than highway sign supporting structures. This is caused by the fact that the design codes of the structures are different. To distribute wind induced risk in highway structures, unification and improvement of design codes are required based on risk assessment.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.355-365
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• 2023

This study examined the relationship between corporate governance and risk disclosure via a systematic literature review and bibliometric visualization analysis. The study aimed to present evidence of risk disclosure intellectual structure, volume, and development knowledge trends. Data was extracted from Scopus and analyzed with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and RTools. In turn, 64 articles were extracted from the Scopus database. The results demonstrated that the number of corporate governance and risk disclosure publications increased significantly from 2015 to 2019 compared to before 2015. RTools revealed the most prominent journals, authors, and interests in the field. The co-occurrences map was constructed based on 208 keywords from 64 articles, where the keywords were required to appear once in the research. Interestingly, the keyword search yielded new concepts relatively unexplored in the risk disclosure field. The 13 clusters were generated, which contained 1987 total links and 1567 direct citations. Based on the scientific analysis discussion, corporate governance and risk disclosure is an interesting topic that has produced many publications. Applying research keywords arguably aided in producing and publishing papers in top journals. Despite the number of publications decreasing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the pandemic also presented new opportunities for future research.