• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Severity

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Semiquantitative Failure Mode, Effect and Criticality Analysis for Reliability Analysis of Solid Rocket Propulsion System (고체 로켓 추진 기관의 신뢰성 분석을 위한 준-정량적 FMECA)

  • Moon, Keun Hwan;Kim, Jin Kon;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.631-638
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    • 2015
  • In this study, semiquantitative failure mode, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) for the reliability analysis of a solid rocket propulsion system is performed. The semiquantitative FMECA is composed of failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) and criticality analysis (CA). To perform FMECA, the structure of the solid rocket propulsion system is divided into 43 parts down to the component level, and FMEA is conducted at the design stage considering 137 potential failure modes. CA is then conducted for each failure mode, during which the criticality number is estimated using the failure rate databases. The results demonstrate the relationship between potential failure modes, causes, and effects, and their risk priorities are evaluated qualitatively. Additionally, several failure modes with higher criticality and severity values are selected for high-priority improvement.

The Effect of Acute Coagulopathy in Profoundly Traumatic Patients on Acute and Early Deaths (고도 중증외상 환자에서 급성 혈액응고장애가 초기 및 조기 사망에 미치는 영향)

  • Noh, Minsu;Yang, Song-Soo;Kyoung, Kyu-Hyouck
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.158-164
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Numerous studies have investigated the pattern of traumatic death with a focus on the injury mechanism, the severity of the injury and the presence of hemorrhage. Acute coagulopathy has been treated as only one of many complications. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of acute coagulopathy on acute and early death due to trauma. Methods: A retrospective analysis of trauma patients with injury severity score (ISS)${\geq}25$ who had been treated between January 2011 and December 2012 was conducted. Based on the time of injury, traumatic death was categorized into acute (within 48 hours) and early (from 3 to 7 days). The correlations between various parameters within 24 hours after injury and time of death were analyzed. Results: A total of 124 patients were enrolled. Of them, 8.1% (n=10) of the patients experienced acute mortality. For those patients, significant differences in initial systolic blood pressure, coagulopathy score, amount of transfusion, abbreviated injury scale of the head and neck, the abdomen and the extremities were noted. Early mortality was experienced by 7.0% (n=8) of the patients, only coagulopathy score was found to be a significant independent risk factor for acute (odds ratio: 3.127; 95% confidence interval: 1.185-8.252; p=0.021) and early mortality (odds ratio: 2.470; 95% confidence interval: 1.029-5.929; p=0.043). Conclusion: Acute traumatic coagulopathy has an important role in the mortality, even after the acute phase. Early management and prevention of acute coagulopathy may improve survival of trauma patients.

Drought Frequency Analysis Using Hidden Markov Chain Model and Bivariate Copula Function (Hidden Markov Chain 모형과 이변량 코플라함수를 이용한 가뭄빈도분석)

  • Chun, Si-Young;Kim, Yong-Tak;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.12
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    • pp.969-979
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    • 2015
  • This study applied a probabilistic-based hidden Markov model (HMM) to better characterize drought patterns. In addition, a copula-based bivariate drought frequency analysis was employed to further investigate return periods of the current drought condition in year 2015. The obtained results revealed that western Kangwon area was generally more vulnerable to drought risk than eastern Kangwon area using the 40-year data. Imjin-river watershed including Cheorwon area was the most vulnerable area in terms of severe drought events. Four stations in Han-river watershed showed a joint return period exceeding 1,000 years associated with the drought duration and severity in 2014-2015. Especially, current drought status in Northern Han-river and Imjin-river watershed is most severe drought exceeding 100-year return period.

Online Users' Password Security Behavior : The Effects of Fear Appeals and Message Framing, and Mechanism of Password Security Behavior (온라인 사용자의 비밀번호 보호행위 : 공포 소구와 메시지 프레이밍 효과, 그리고 비밀번호 보호행위의 동기요인)

  • Park, Jaeyoung;Kim, Jeondo;Kim, Beomsoo
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.147-165
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    • 2017
  • Recently, there have been numerous issues about password breaches and it is becoming important for the users to manage their passwords. In practice, the online service provider are asking the online users to change their passwords periodically. However, majority of the users are not changing their passwords regularly, and this can increase the risk of password breach. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether 'fear appeals' and 'message framing' enhance the behavior of changing passwords by the online users. Furthermore, we identify the mechanism on how the behavior of changing passwords is enabled using protection motivation theory. The results of an online experiment show that the online users who are exposed to 'fear appeals' perceived a more vulnerability and severity of password breaches, which in turn, increased the intention of changing their password. In addition, we found that perceived severity of password breaches affect fear positively. Moreover, we found that fear has significant impact on the willingness of changing passwords. Finally, Message framing plays a moderating role between fear and change intentions. That is, in a situation where 'fear appeal' is presented, it means that 'gain framing' is more effective than 'loss framing' These findings suggest that the online service providers may need to use 'fear appeals' to the online users. Security managers can address issues related to the password breaches by carefully designing 'fear appeals'.

High-Temperature Corrosion Characterization for Super-Heater Tube under Coal and Biomass Co-firing Conditions (석탄-바이오매스 혼소에 따른 슈퍼히터 튜브 고온 부식 특성 연구)

  • Park, Seok-Kyun;Mock, Chin-Sung;Jung, Jin-Mu;Oh, Jong-Hyun;Choi, Seuk-Cheun
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.79-86
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    • 2018
  • Many countries have conducted extensive studies for biomass co-firing to enhance the durability of reactor on high-temperature corrosion. However, due to the complicated mechanisms of biomass co-firing, there have been limitations in accurately determining the current state of corrosion and predicting the potential risk of corrosion of power plant. In order to solve this issue, this study introduced Lab-scale corrosion system to analyze the corrosion characteristics of the A213 T91 material under the biomass co-firing conditions. The corrosion status of the samples was characterized using SEM/EDS analysis and mass loss measurement according to various biomass co-firing conditions such as corrosion temperature, $SO_2$ concentration, and corrosion time. As a result, the corrosion severity of A213 T91 material was gradually increased with the increase of $SO_2$ concentration in the reactor. When $SO_2$ concentration was changed from 0 ppm to 500 ppm, both corrosion severity and oxide layer thickness were proportionally increased by 15% and 130%, respectively. The minimum corrosion was observed when the corrosion temperature was $450^{\circ}C$. As the temperature was increased up to $650^{\circ}C$, the faster corrosion behavior of A213 T91 was observed. A213 T91 was observed to be more severely corroded by the effect of chlorine, resulting in faster corrosion rate and thicker oxide layer. Interestingly, corrosion resistance of A213 T91 tended to gradually decrease rather than increases as the oxide layer was formed. The results of this study is expected to provide necessary research data on boiler corrosion in biomass co-firing power plants.

Projection of Temporal Trends on Drought Characteristics using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in South Korea (표준강수증발산지수를 활용한 미래 가뭄특성의 시계열 변화전망)

  • Nam, Won-Ho;Hayes, Michael J.;Wilhite, Donald A.;Svoboda, Mark D.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2015
  • Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct a drought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in South Korea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contribute to water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.

Comparative Analysis of the Software Certification: RTCA DO-178C and RESSAC (RTCA DO-178C와 새로운 RESSAC 소프트웨어 인증기술의 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Dongmin;Lee, Dongwoo;Oh, Seungjun;Kwon, Oseong;Na, Jongwhoa
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.14 no.spc
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2020
  • RTCA DO-178C is a development guideline to ensure aircraft system airworthiness. However, there is an opinion that the application of DO-178C to the development of UAV of more than MTOW 150 kg is over regulated because the severity of the risk from UAV is lower than that of normal aircraft. To address issue, EASA and FAA have been working on the Re-Engineering and Streamlining the Standards for Avionics Certification(RESSAC) project since 2016 with the goal of establishing a new certification scheme that simplifies existing aircraft certification procedures and standards. This paper analyzes the current DO-178C certification process and presents advantages by comparing and analyzing the new RESSAC certification process, which simplifies processes and outputs in comparing with the DO-178C certification process, while it ensures flight safety of the vehicle.

Remanufacturing Process Design for Automotive Alternator (자동차 교류발전기의 재제조 프로세스 설계)

  • Roslan, Liyana;Azmi, Nurul Ain;Jung, Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.179-188
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    • 2011
  • This paper outlines a systematic guideline for remanufacturing process using the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method in order to estimate the reliability and quality of the remanufactured alternator. The method is just a tool to help, but the remanufacturer must determine the optimal remanufacturing process and specific inspection and production that will turn the alternator as-good-as new and place the product into the market with reliability and quality equal to a new product. FMEA is a method that is widely used in industry and has shown its value and effectiveness in the above remanufacturing case study. Actions taken often result in a lower severity, occurrence or detection rating. Redesign may result in lower severity and occurrence ratings while inserting validation controls and maintenance can reduce the detection rating. The revised ratings are recorded with the originals on the FMEA template form. After these corrective actions and revisions have been established, evaluation of the ranks can be repeated, until the redesign and control parameters comply with safety standards.

Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia among Hospitalized Patients: Is It Different from Community Acquired Pneumonia?

  • Seong, Gil Myung;Kim, Miok;Lee, Jaechun;Lee, Jong Hoo;Jeong, Sun Young;Choi, Yunsuk;Kim, Woo Jeong
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.76 no.2
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    • pp.66-74
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    • 2014
  • Background: The increasing number of outpatients with multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens has led to a new category of pneumonia, termed healthcare-associated pneumonia (HCAP). We determined the differences in etiology and outcomes between patients with HCAP and those with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) to clarify the risk factors for HCAP mortality. Methods: A retrospective study comparing patients with HCAP and CAP at Jeju National University Hospital. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Results: A total of 483 patients (208 patients HCAP, 275 patients with CAP) were evaluated. Patients with HCAP were older than those with CAP (median, 74 years; interquartile range [IQR], 65-81 vs. median, 69 years; IQR, 52-78; p<0.0001). Streptococcus pneumoniae was the major pathogen in both groups, and MDR pathogens were isolated more frequently from patients with HCAP than with CAP (18.8% vs. 4.9%, p<0.0001). Initial pneumonia severity was greater in patients with HCAP than with CAP. The total 30-day mortality rate was 9.9% and was higher in patients with HCAP based on univariate analysis (16.3% vs. 5.1%; odds ratio (OR), 3.64; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.90-6.99; p<0.0001). After adjusting for age, sex, comorbidities, and initial severity, the association between HCAP and 30-day mortality became non-significant (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 0.94-4.18; p=0.167). Conclusion: HCAP was a common cause of hospital admissions and was associated with a high mortality rate. This increased mortality was related primarily to age and initial clinical vital signs, rather than combination antibiotic therapy or type of pneumonia.

A probabilistic framework for drought forecasting using hidden Markov models aggregated with the RCP8.5 projection

  • Chen, Si;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.197-197
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    • 2016
  • Forecasting future drought events in a region plays a major role in water management and risk assessment of drought occurrences. The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought's effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, a new probabilistic scheme is proposed to forecast droughts, in which a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) is used aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess the drought severity over the selected five stations in South Kore. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used for inference on the model parameters which includes several hidden states and the state specific parameters. We perform an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to derive a probabilistic forecast that considers uncertainties. Results showed that the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, are much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times over the study sites. In addition, the probabilistic forecast verification technique, which includes the ranked probability skill score and the relative operating characteristic, is performed on the proposed model to check the performance. It is found that the HMM-RCP provides a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought severity categories, even with a long lead time. The overall results indicate that the proposed HMM-RCP shows a powerful skill for probabilistic drought forecasting.

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