• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2001.05a
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• pp.44-51
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• 2001

To account for uncertainties involved in an economic analysis of project, sensitivity analysis are usually being done in Korea. Though useful for policy analysis, but it larks explicit consideration of probability of occurring certain events considered in the sensitivity analysis. Risk analysis otherwise can explicitly account for the probability of certain event which has dire impact on project viability, such as cost, discount rate, and size of benefit. This paper reports experience of applying risk analysis method for economic evaluation of railroad investment. Probability distribution of event has paramount impact on the risk analysis results, while not many prior researches dealt with these issues. Probability distribution of rolling stock cost and operating cost, in addition to those cost variables, are developed considering railway demand in this study. Case study results are reported. Issues in applying risk analysis are reported in addition to further research direction.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.494-501
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• 2009

Probabilistic Ecological risk assessment (PERA) is extensive approach to qualify and quantify risk on the multi species based on species sensitivity distribution (SSD). As a while, deterministic ecological risk assessment (DERA) considers the comparison of predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and predicted exposure concentration (PEC). DERA is used to determine if there is potential risk or no risk, and it doesn't consider the nature variability and the species sensitivity. But PERA can be more realistic and reasonable approach to estimate likelihood or risk. In this study, we compared PERA used in developed countries, and proposed PERA applicable for the Korean water environment. Taxonomic groups were classified as "class" level including Actinopterygill, Branchiopoda, Chlorophyceae, Maxillapoda, Insects, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Secernentea, Polychaeta, Monocotyldoneae, and Chanophyceae in this study. Statistical extrapolation method (SEM), statistical extrapolation method $_{acutechronicratio}$ ($SEM_{ACR}$) and assessment factor method (AFM) were used to calculate the ecological protective concentration based on qualitative and quantitative levels of taxonomic toxicity data. This study would be useful to establish the PERA for the protection of aquatic ecosystem in Korea.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.17
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• pp.7021-7027
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• 2014

Background: The problem of cancer, especially lung cancer, is very acute in Bangladesh. The present study was conducted to evaluate the risk of lung cancer among Bangladeshi people based on hereditary, socio-economic and demographic factors. Materials and Methods: This study was carried out in 208 people (patients-104, controls-104) from January 2012 to September 2013 using a structured questionnaire containing details of lung cancer risk factors including smoking, secondhand smoke, tobacco leaf intake, age, gender, family history, chronic lung diseases, radiotherapy in the chest area, diet, obesity, physical activity, alcohol consumption, occupation, education, and income. Descriptive statistics and testing of hypotheses were used for the analysis using SPSS software (version 20). Results: According to this study, lung cancer was more prevalent in males than females. Smoking was the highest risk factor (OR=9.707; RR=3.924; sensitivity=0.8872 and P<0.0001) followed by previous lung disease (asthma, tuberculosis etc.) (OR=7.095; RR=1.508; sensitivity=0.316 and P<0.0001)) for male patients. Highly cooked food (OR=2.485; RR=1.126; sensitivity=0.418 and P=0.004)) and also genetic inheritance (OR=1.93; RR=1.335; sensitivity=0.163 and P=0.138) demonstrated significant correlation with lung cancer as risk factors after these two and alcohol consumption was not prevalent. On the other hand, for female patients, tobacco leaf intake represented the highest risk (OR=2.00; RR=1.429; sensitivity= 0.667 and P=0.5603) while genetic inheritance and highly cooked food also correlate with lung cancer but not so significantly. Socioeconomic status and education level also play important roles in causing lung cancer. Some 78.5% male and 83.3% of female cancer patients were rural residents, while 58.2% lived at the margin or below the poverty line. Most male (39.8%) and female (50.0%) patients had completed only primary level education, and 27.6% male and 33.3% female patients were illiterate. Smoking was found to be more prevalent among the less educated persons. Conclusions: The results obtained in this study indicate the importance of creating awareness about lung cancer risk factors among Bangladeshi people and making appropriate access to health services for the illiterate, poor, rural people.

• Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.495-508
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• 2014

Purpose: This study was conducted in order to evaluate the reliability, validity, sensitivity, and specificity of the Short Form of Bobath Memorial Hospital Fall Risk Assessment Scale (BMFRAS-SF). Methods: A validation study was conducted on 207 elderly patients aged over 65 who were admitted to Bobath Memorial Hospital. Fall risk scores of BMFRAS, composed of eight subscales (age, fall history, physical activity, consciousness level, communication, fall risk factors, underlying disease, and medications) were assessed from the electronic medical record. BMFRAS-SF was derived from eight subscales of the BMFRAS representing the significance between fallers and non-fallers (fall history, physical activity, fall risk factors, underlying disease, and medications). Internal consistency reliability and interrater reliability were assessed by Cronbach's alpha and kappa coefficient. Validity was assessed by Spearman correlation analysis, factor analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive and negative predictive values, and a receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) were generated. Results: Fallers had significantly higher risk scores than non-fallers in fall history, physical activity, fall risk factors, underlying disease, and medication scales. The BMFRAS-SF demonstrated acceptable Cronbach's alpha (.706) and kappa coefficients of .95. The BMFRAS-SF subscales showed good convergent validity and construct validity. The BMFRAS-SF presented good sensitivity(86.7%), specificity(67.9%), positive predictive value(42.9%) and good negative predictive value(94.8%) at a cut-off score of 5. Areas under the ROC curves were .860 for the BMFRAS and .861 for the BMFRAS-SF. Conclusion: The BMFRAS-SF was proved to be reliable and valid. It could be used for time-saving assessment and evaluation of the high risks for falls in clinical practice settings.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.157-163
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• 2018

This paper describes design improvement to a research rector for safety enhancement using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). This PSA under reactor design was undertaken to assess the level of safety for the design of a research reactor and to evaluate whether it is probabilistically safe to operate and reliable to use. The scope of the PSA reported here is a Level 1 PSA, which addresses the risks associated with the core damage. The technical objectives of this study were to identify accident sequences leading to core damage and to derive design improvement from the dominant accident sequences through the sensitivity analysis. The AIMS-PSA and FTREX were used for the this PSA of the research reactor. The criterion for inclusion was all sequences with a point estimate frequency greater than a truncation value of 1.0E-14/yr. The final result indicates a point estimate of 6.79E-05/yr for the overall Core Damage Frequency (CDF) attributable to internal initiating events for the research reactor under design. Based on the dominant accident sequences from the PSA, the seven kinds of sensitivity analysis were performed and some design improvement items were derived. When the five methods to improve the safety were all applied to the reactor design and emergency operating procedure, its risk was reduced to about 1.21E-06/yr from 6.79E-05/yr. The contribution of LOCA and LOEP with high CDF were significantly reduced by the sensitivity analysis. The safety of the research reactor was well improved and the risk was reduced than before adapting the design improvement gotten from the sensitivity analysis. The present study indicated that the research reactor has the well-balanced safety in regard to each initiating event contribution to CDF. The PSA methodology is very effective to improve reactor safety in a conceptual design phase and especially, Risk-informed design(RID) is very nice way to find the deficiencies of research reactor under design and to improve the reactor safety by solving them.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.305-313
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• 2017

A robust finite element based reinforced concrete bridge deck corrosion initiation model is applied for time-dependent probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The model is focused on uncertainties in the governing parameters that include variation of high performance concrete (HPC) diffusion coefficients, concrete cover depth, surface chloride concentration, holidays in reinforcements, coatings and critical chloride threshold level in several steel reinforcements. The corrosion initiation risk is expressed in the form of probability over intended life span of the bridge deck. Conducted study shows the time-dependent sensitivity analysis to evaluate the significance of governing parameters on chloride ingress rate, various steel reinforcement protection and the corrosion initiation likelihood. Results from this probabilistic analysis provide better insight into the effect of input parameters variation on the estimate of the corrosion initiation risk for the design of concrete structures in harsh chloride environments.

• The Korean Journal of Cytopathology
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.18-24
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• 2005

The objective of this study was to ascertain whether or not the high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) test, when coupled with Papanicolaou (Pap) smears, would prove useful in the screening and management of patients in whom abnormal Pap smear results had been obtained. Concomitant high-risk HPV detection using the hybrid capture II test and colposcopy with a Pap smear were performed with 176 patients, all of whom had been screened for both cervical carcinoma and precancerous lesions. We concomitantly performed colposcopies on these patients. Upon the follow-ups, the histologic diagnoses of these patients were confirmed via either biopsy or hysterectomy. The rate of high-risk HPV detection was correlated with cytologic diagnoses and colposcopic findings. The group composed of the high-risk HPV-positive ASCUS patients exhibited a 55.7% rate of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), a significantly higher rate than the 7.5% result obtained in the high-risk HPV-negative ASCUS group. HPV test showed high sensitivity (87%) and low specificity (62.6%) in detection of CIN and colposcopy also showed high sensitivity (88%) and low specificity (22%). Any combination of these tests improve sensitivity, but not specificity. High-risk HPV tests, when coupled with Pap smears, constituted a useful triage approach with regard to colposcopy-directed biopsies in patients in whom a cytologic diagnosis of ASCUS had been rendered.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.158-172
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• 2021

Background: Metabolic syndrome has been known as a risk of cardiovascular disease. Meanwhile, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) is used as a predictor of cardiovascular disease. In this paper, we aimed to investigate the association between hs-CRP and metabolic syndrome. Method: A total of 7,633 were chosen as the study population from the 7th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey dataset (2016-2017). Our dependent variable was whether an individual had metabolic syndrome or not, and the independent variable of interest was hs-CRP which was categorized into three groups. The chi-square tests and hierarchical logistic regression analyses reflecting survey characteristics were conducted. All analyses were stratified by gender. Results: According to the adjusted model with all covariates, compared to individuals having the low risk of hs-CRP, those having its average risk were more likely to have metabolic syndrome in men (odds ratio [OR], 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.76) and women (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.33-2.16). Individuals having the high risk was not significantly different in men; however, they were more likely to have metabolic syndrome in women (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.28-3.23). Conclusion: In an upcoming aging society, it is important to reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome to improve population health. This study suggests that hs-CRP may be used as a marker of the risk of metabolic syndrome in a gender-specific way, thereby contributing to enhancing awareness of the risk of metabolic syndrome among the general public.

• Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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• v.50 no.1
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• pp.43-48
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• 2010

Animal disease surveillance system, defined as the continuous investigation of a given population to detect the occurrence of disease or infection for control purposes, has been key roles to assess the health status of an animal population and, more recently, in international trade of animal and animal products with regard to risk assessment. Especially, for a system aiming to determine whether or not a disease is present in a population sensitivity of the system should be maintained high enough not to miss an infected animal. Therefore, when planning the implementation of surveillance system a number of factors that affecting surveillance sensitivity should be taken into account. Of these parameters sample size is of important, and different approaches are used to calculate sample size, usually depending on the objective of surveillance systems. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of the current national serological surveillance programs for four selected bovine diseases assuming a specified sampling plan, to examine factors affecting the probability of detection, and to provide sample sizes required for achieving surveillance goal of detecting at least an infection in a given population. Our results showed that, for example, detecting low level of prevalence (0.2% for bovine tuberculosis) requires selection of all animals per typical Korean cattle farm (n = 17), and thus risk-based target surveillance for high risk groups can be an alternative strategy to increase sensitivity while not increasing overall sampling efforts. The minimum sample size required for detecting at least one positive animal was sharply increased as the disease prevalence is low. More importantly, high reliability of prevalence estimation was expected with increased sampling fraction even when zero-infected animal was identified. The effect of sample size is also discussed in terms of the maximum prevalence when zero-infected animals were identified and on the probability of failure to detect an infection. We suggest that for many serological surveillance systems, diagnostic performance of the testing method, sample size, prevalence, population size, and statistical confidence need to be considered to correctly interpret results of the system.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.7-14
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• 2010

Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) supports a decision-making process such as establishment of environmental quality criteria. Soil quality criteria (SQC) are essential to protect soil organisms from the exposure to various soil contaminants. In this study, ERA methodologies of advanced countries for soil pollution were extensively compared to propose the ERA approach suitable for soil ecosystem in Korea. The soil ERAs in European Chemical Bureau(ECB), The Netherlands, and Canada can be classified as deterministic ecological risk assessment (DERA), and probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) based on species sensitivity distribution (SSD). We propose three ERA methods according to abundance and reliability of soil ecotoxicity data. The method considered land use such as residential/agricultural, and industrial/commercial uses. The taxonomic groups of soil organism were classified as 'Class' level including different trophic levels (Magnoliopsida or Liliopsida, Clitellata, and Insecta or Secernentea). This study can be used to estimate the soil quality criteria to protect soil biota.