• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Representation System

Search Result 13, Processing Time 0.02 seconds

Development of Korean SPAR(Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research) System for Impact Assessment of Climate Changes and Environmental Stress (기후변화 및 환경스트레스 영향평가를 위한 한국형 SPAR(Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research) 시스템의 개발)

  • Sang, Wan-Gyu;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Shin, Pyong;Baek, Jae-Kyeong;Lee, Yun-Ho;Cho, Jung-Il;Seo, Myung-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.187-195
    • /
    • 2019
  • The needs for precise diagnostics and farm management-decision aids have increased to reduce the risk of climate change and environmental stress. Crop simulation models have been widely used to search optimal solutions for effective cultural practices. However, limited knowledge on physiological responses to environmental variation would make it challenging to apply crop simulation models to a wide range of studies. Advanced research facilities would help investigation of plant response to the environment. In the present study, the sunlit controlled environment chambers, known as Korean SPAR (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research) system, was developed by renovating existing SPAR system. The Korean SPAR system controls and monitors major environmental variables including atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperature and soil moisture. Furthermore, plants are allowed to grow under natural sunlight. Key physiological and physical data such as canopy photosynthesis and respiration, canopy water and nutrient use over the whole growth period are also collected automatically. As a case study, it was shown that the Korean SPAR system would be useful for collection of data needed for understanding the growth and developmental processes of a crop, e.g., soybean. In addition, we have demonstrated that the canopy photosynthetic data of the Korean SPAR indicate the precise representation of physiological responses to environment variation. As a result, physical and physiological data obtained from the Korean SPAR are expected to be useful for development of an advanced crop simulation model minimizing errors and confounding factors that usually occur in field experiments.

Analysis of Trading Performance on Intelligent Trading System for Directional Trading (방향성매매를 위한 지능형 매매시스템의 투자성과분석)

  • Choi, Heung-Sik;Kim, Sun-Woong;Park, Sung-Cheol
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.3
    • /
    • pp.187-201
    • /
    • 2011
  • KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

Dashboard Design for Evidence-based Policymaking of Sejong City Government (세종시 데이터 증거기반 정책수립을 위한 대시보드 디자인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jin-A;An, Se-Yun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.19 no.12
    • /
    • pp.173-183
    • /
    • 2019
  • Sejong, Korea's special multifunctional administrative city, was created as a national project to relocated government ministries, the aim being to pursue more balanced regional economic development and boost national competitiveness. During the second phase development will focus on mitigating the challenges raised due to the increasing population and urbanization development. All of infrastructure, apartments, houses, private buildings, commercial structures, public buildings, citizens are producing more and more complex data. To face these challenges, Sejong city governments and policy maker recognizes the opportunity to ensure more enriched lives for citizen with data-driven city management, and effectively exploring how to use existing data to improve policy services and a more sustainable economic policy to enhance sustainable city management. As a city government is a complex decision making system, the analysis of astounding increase in city dada is valuable to gain insight in the affecting traffic flow. To support the requirement specification and management of government policy making, the graphic representation of information and data should be provide a different approach in the intuitive way. With in context, this paper outlines the design of interactive, web-based dashboard which provides data visualization regarding better policy making and risk management.