• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Probability

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Rectal Complication Following Radical Radiotherapy in Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix (자궁경부암에서 근치적 방사선치료 후의 직장 합병증)

  • Kim Won-Dong;Park Woo-Yoon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2006
  • Puroose: This study evaluated the late rectal complications in cervix cancer patients following treatment with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and high dose rate intracavitary radiation (HDR ICR). The factors affecting the risk of developing late rectal complications and its incidence were analyzed and discussed. Materials and Methods: The records of 105 patients with cervix cancer who were treated with radical radiotherapy using HDR ICR between July, 1995 and December, 2001 were retrospectively reviewed. The median dose of EBRT was 50.4Gy $(41.4{\sim}56.4 Gy)$ with a daily fraction size of 1.8Gy. A total of $5{\sim}7$ (median: 6) fractions of HDR ICR were given twice weekly with a fraction size of $4{\sim}5 Gy$ (median: 4Gy) to A point using an Ir (Iridium)-192 source. The median dose of ICR was 24 Gy $(20{\sim}35 Gy)$. During HDR ICR, the rectal dose was measured in vivo by a semiconductor dosimeter. The median follow-up period was 32 months, ranging from 5 to 84 months. Results: Of the 105 patients, 12 patients (11%) developed late rectal complications: 7 patients with grade 1 or 2, 4 patients with grade 3 and 1 patient with grade 4. Rectal bleeding was the most frequent chief complaint. The complications usually began to occur $5{\sim}32$ (median: 12) months after the completion of radiotherapy. Multivariate analysis revealed that the measured cumulative rectal BED over 115 Gy3 (Deq over 69 Gy) and the depth (D) of a 5 Gy isodose volume more than 50 mm were the independent predictors for late rectal complications. Conclusion: With evaluating the cumulative rectal BED and the depth of a 5 Gy isodose volume as predictors, we can individualize treatment planning to reduce the probability of late rectal complications.

Abnormal Perfusion on Myocardial Perfusion SPECT in Patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome (Wolff-Parkinson-White 증후군 환자의 심근 관류 이상)

  • Kang, Do-Young;Cha, Kwang-Soo;Han, Seung-Ho;Park, Tae-Ho;Kim, Moo-Hyun;Kim, Young-Dae
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.9-14
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: Abnormal myocardial perfusion may be caused by ventricular preexcitation, but its location, extent, severity and correlation with accessory pathway (AP) are not established. We evaluated perfusion patterns on myocardial perfusion SPECT and location of AP in patients with WPW (Wolff-Parkinson-White) syndrome. Materials and Methods: Adenosine Tc-99m MIBI or Tl-201 myocardial perfusion SPECT was performed in 11 patients with WPW syndrome. Perfusion defects (PD) were compared to AP location based on ECG with Fitzpatrick's algorithm or electrophysiologic study and radiofrequency catheter ablation. Results: Patients had atypical chest discomfort or no symptom. Risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) was below 0.1 in 11 patients using the nomogram to estimate the probability of CAD. Coronary angiography was performed in 4 patients (mid-LAD 50% in one, normal in others). In 4 patients, AP localization was done by electrophysiologic study and radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA). Small to large extent ($11.0{\pm}8.5%$, range:$3{\sim}35%$) and mild to moderate severity ($-71{\pm}42.7%$, range:$-2l7{\sim}-39%$) of reversible (n=9) or fixed (n=1) perfusion defects were noted. One patient with right free wall (right lateral) AP showed normal. PD locations were variable following the location of AP. One patient with left lateral wall AP was followed 6 weeks after RFCA and showed significantly decreased PD on SPECT with successful ablation. Conclusion: Myocardial perfusion defect showed variable extent, severity and location in patients with WPW syndrome. Abnormal perfusion defect showed in most of all patients, but it did not seem to be correlated specifically with location of accessory pathway and coronary artery disease. Therefore myocardial perfusion SPECT should be interpreted carefully in patients with WPW syndrome.

Estimation of Heading Date using Mean Temperature and the Effect of Sowing Date on the Yield of Sweet Sorghum in Jellabuk Province (평균온도를 이용한 전북지역 단수수의 출수기 추정 및 파종시기별 수량 변화)

  • Choi, Young Min;Choi, Kyu-Hwan;Shin, So-Hee;Han, Hyun-Ah;Heo, Byong Soo;Kwon, Suk-Ju
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.64 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 2019
  • Sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench), compared to traditional crops, has been evaluated as a useful crop with high adaptability to the environment and various uses, but cultivation has not expanded owing to a lack of related research and information in Korea. This study was conducted to estimate heading date in 'Chorong' sweet sorghum based on climate data of the last 30 years (1989 - 2018) from six regions (Jeonju, Buan, Jeongup, Imsil, Namwon, and Jangsu) in Jellabuk Province. In addition, we compared the growth and quality factors by sowing date (April 10, April 25, May 10, May 25, June 10, June 25, and July 10) in 2018. Days from sowing to heading (DSH) increased to 107, 96, 83, 70, 59, 64, and 65 days in order of the sowing dates, respectively, and the average was 77.7 days. The effective accumulated temperature for heading date was $1,120.3^{\circ}C$. The mean annual temperature was the highest in Jeonju, followed in descending order by Jeongup, Buan, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu. The DSH based on effective accumulated temperature gradually decreased in all sowing date treatments in the six regions during the last 30 years. DSH of the six regions showed a negative relationship with mean temperature (sowing date to heading date) and predicted DSH ($R^2=0.9987**$) calculated by mean temperature was explained with a probability of 89% of observed DSH in 2017 and 2018. At harvest, fresh stem weight and soluble solids content were higher in the April and July sowings, but sugar content was higher in the May 10 ($3.4Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$) and May 25 ($3.1Mg{\cdot}ha^{-1}$) sowings. Overall, the April and July sowings were of low quality and yield, and there is a risk of frost damage; thus, we found May sowings to be the most effective. Additionally, sowing dates must be considered in terms of proper harvest stage, harvesting target (juice or grain), cultivation altitude, and microclimate.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.

The Optimal Surgical Approach and Complications in Resecting Osteochondroma around the Lesser Trochanter (소전자부 주위의 골연골종 절제 시 적절한 외과적 접근법과 합병증)

  • Jeon, Dae-Geun;Cho, Wan Hyeong;Song, Won Seok;Kong, Chang-Bae;Lee, Seung Yong;Kim, Do Yup
    • Journal of the Korean Orthopaedic Association
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: Surgical risks associated with the resection of osteochondroma around the proximal tibia and fibula, as well as the proximal humerus have been well established; however, the clinical presentation and optimal surgical approach for osteochondroma around the lesser trochanter have not been fully addressed. Materials and Methods: Thirteen patients with osteochondroma around the lesser trochanter underwent resection. We described the chief complaint, duration of symptom, location of the tumor, mass protrusion pattern on axial computed tomography image, tumor volume, surgical approach, iliopsoas tendon integrity after resection, and complication according to the each surgical approach. Results: Pain on walking or exercise was the chief complaint in 7 patients, and numbness and radiating pain in 6 patients. The average duration of symptom was 19 months (2-72 months). The surgical approach for 5 tumors that protruded postero-laterally was postero-lateral (n=3), anterior (n=1), and medial (n=1). All 4 patients with antero-medially protruding tumor underwent the anterior approach. Two patients with both antero-medially and postero-laterally protruding tumor received the medial and anterior approach, respectively. Two patients who underwent medial approach for postero-laterally protruded tumor showed extensive cortical defect after resection. One patient who received the anterior approach to resect a large postero-laterally protruded tumor developed complete sciatic nerve palsy, which was recovered 6 months after re-exploration. Conclusion: For large osteochondromas with posterior protrusion, we should not underestimate the probability of sciatic nerve compression. When regarding the optimal surgical approach, the medial one is best suitable for small tumors, while the anterior approach is good for antero-medial or femur neck tumor. For postero-laterally protruded large tumors, posterior approach may minimize the risk of sciatic nerve palsy.

Postoperative Radiation Therapy for Chest Wall Invading pT3N0 Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: Elective Lymphatic Irradiation May Not Be Necessary (흉벽을 침범한 pT3N0 비소세포폐암 환자에서 수술 후 방사선치료)

  • Park, Young-Je;Ahn, Yong-Chan;Lim, Do-Hoon;Park, Won;Kim, Kwan-Min;Kim, Jhingook;Shim, Young-Mog;Kim, Kyoung-Ju;Lee, Jeung-Eun;Kang, Min-Kyu;Nam, Hee-Rim;Huh, Seung-Jae
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.253-260
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: No general consensus has been reached regarding the necessity of postoperative radiation therapy (PORT) and the optimal techniques of its application for patients with chest wall invasion (pT3cw) and node negative (NO) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We retrospectively analyzed the PT3cwN0 NSCLC patients who received PORT because of presumed inadequate resection margin on surgical findings. Materials and Methods: From Aug. 1994 till June 2000, 21 pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients received PORT at Samsung Medical Center; all of whom underwent curative on-bloc resection of the primary tumor plus the chest wall and regional lymph node dissection. PORT was typically stalled 3 to 4 weeks after operation using 6 or 10 MV X-rays from a linear accelerator. The radiation target volume was confined to the tumor bed plus the immediate adjacent tissue, and no regional lymphatics were included. The planned radiation dose was 54 Gy by conventional fractionation schedule. The survival rates were calculated and the failure patterns analyzed. Results: Overall survival, disease-free survival, loco-regional recurrence-free survival, and distant metastases-free survival rates at 5 years were 38.8$\%$, 45.5$\%$, 90.2$\%$, and 48.1$\%$, respectively. Eleven patients experienced treatment failure: six with distant metastases, three with intra-thoracic failures, and two with combined distant and intra-thoracic failures. Among the five patients with intra-thoracic failures, two had pleural seeding, two had in-field local failures, and only one had regional lymphatic failure in the mediastinum. No patients suffered from acute and late radiation side effects of RTOG grade 3 or higher. Conclusion: The strategy of adding PORT to surgery to improve the probability, not only of local control but also of survival, was justified, considering that local control was the most important component in the successful treatment of pT3cw NSCLC patients, especially when the resection margin was not adequate. The incidence and the severity of the acute and late side effects of PORT were markedly reduced, which contributed to improving the patients' qualify of life both during and after PORT, without increasing the risk of regional failures by eliminating the regional lymphatics from the radiation target volume.

Surgery Alone and Surgery Plus Postoperative Radiation Therapy for Patients with pT3N0 Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Invading the Chest Wall (흉벽을 침범한 pT3N0 비소세포폐암 환자에서 수술 단독과 수술 후 방사선치료)

  • 박영제;임도훈;김관민;김진국;심영목;안용찬
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.37 no.10
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    • pp.845-855
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    • 2004
  • Background: No general consensus has been available regarding the necessity of postoperative radiation therapy (PORT) and its optimal techniques in the patients with chest wall invasion (pT3cw) and node negative (N0) non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We did retrospective analyses on the pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients who received PORT because of presumed inadequate resection margin on surgical findings. And we compared them with the pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients who did not received PORT during the same period. Material and Method: From Aug. of 1994 till June of 2002, 22 pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients received PORT-PORT (+) group- and 16 pT3cwN0 NSCLC patients had no PORT-PORT (-) group. The radiation target volume for PORT (+) group was confined to the tumor bed plus the immediate adjacent tissue only, and no regional lymphatics were included. The prognostic factors for all patients were analyzed and survival rates, failure patterns were compared with two groups. Result: Age, tumor size, depth of chest wall invasion, postoperative mobidities were greater in PORT (-) group than PORT (+) group. In PORT (-) group, four patients who were consulted for PORT did not receive the PORT because of self refusal (3 patients) and delay in the wound repair (1 patient). For all patients, overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), loco-regional recurrence-free survival (LRFS), and distant metastases-free survival (DMFS) rates at 5 years were 35.3%, 30.3%, 80.9%, 36.3%. In univariate and multivariate analysis, only PORT significantly affect the survival. The 5 year as rates were 43.3% in the PORT (+) group and 25.0% in PORT (-) group (p=0.03). DFS, LRFS, DMFS rates were 36.9%, 84.9%, 43.1 % in PORT (+) group and 18.8%, 79.4%, 21.9% in PORT(-) group respectively. Three patients in PORT (-) group died of intercurrent disease without the evidence of recurrence. Few suffered from acute and late radiation side effects, all of which were RTOG grade 2 or lower. Conclusion: The strategy of adding PORT to surgery to improve the probability not only of local control but also of survival could be justified, considering that local control was the most important component in the successful treatment of pT3cw NSCLC patients, especially when the resection margin was not adequate. Authors were successful in the marked reduction of the incidence as well as the severity of the acute and late side effects of PORT, without taking too high risk of the regional failures by eliminating the regional lymphatics from the radiation target volume.

APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN SAFEGUARDS

  • Fattah, A.;Nishiwaki, Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1051-1054
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    • 1993
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency's Statute in Article III.A.5 allows it“to establish and administer safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, facilities and information made available by the Agency or at its request or under its supervision or control are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose; and to apply safeguards, at the request of the parties, to any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy”. Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfilment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of afeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material. It is clear that no international safeguards system can physically prevent diversion. The IAEA safeguards system is basically a verification measure designed to provide assurance in those cases in which diversion has not occurred. Verification is accomplished by two basic means: material accountancy and containment and surveillance measures. Nuclear material accountancy is the fundamental IAEA safeguards mechanism, while containment and surveillance serve as important complementary measures. Material accountancy refers to a collection of measurements and other determinations which enable the State and the Agency to maintain a current picture of the location and movement of nuclear material into and out of material balance areas, i. e. areas where all material entering or leaving is measurab e. A containment measure is one that is designed by taking advantage of structural characteristics, such as containers, tanks or pipes, etc. To establish the physical integrity of an area or item by preventing the undetected movement of nuclear material or equipment. Such measures involve the application of tamper-indicating or surveillance devices. Surveillance refers to both human and instrumental observation aimed at indicating the movement of nuclear material. The verification process consists of three over-lapping elements: (a) Provision by the State of information such as - design information describing nuclear installations; - accounting reports listing nuclear material inventories, receipts and shipments; - documents amplifying and clarifying reports, as applicable; - notification of international transfers of nuclear material. (b) Collection by the IAEA of information through inspection activities such as - verification of design information - examination of records and repo ts - measurement of nuclear material - examination of containment and surveillance measures - follow-up activities in case of unusual findings. (c) Evaluation of the information provided by the State and of that collected by inspectors to determine the completeness, accuracy and validity of the information provided by the State and to resolve any anomalies and discrepancies. To design an effective verification system, one must identify possible ways and means by which nuclear material could be diverted from peaceful uses, including means to conceal such diversions. These theoretical ways and means, which have become known as diversion strategies, are used as one of the basic inputs for the development of safeguards procedures, equipment and instrumentation. For analysis of implementation strategy purposes, it is assumed that non-compliance cannot be excluded a priori and that consequently there is a low but non-zero probability that a diversion could be attempted in all safeguards ituations. An important element of diversion strategies is the identification of various possible diversion paths; the amount, type and location of nuclear material involved, the physical route and conversion of the material that may take place, rate of removal and concealment methods, as appropriate. With regard to the physical route and conversion of nuclear material the following main categories may be considered: - unreported removal of nuclear material from an installation or during transit - unreported introduction of nuclear material into an installation - unreported transfer of nuclear material from one material balance area to another - unreported production of nuclear material, e. g. enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium - undeclared uses of the material within the installation. With respect to the amount of nuclear material that might be diverted in a given time (the diversion rate), the continuum between the following two limiting cases is cons dered: - one significant quantity or more in a short time, often known as abrupt diversion; and - one significant quantity or more per year, for example, by accumulation of smaller amounts each time to add up to a significant quantity over a period of one year, often called protracted diversion. Concealment methods may include: - restriction of access of inspectors - falsification of records, reports and other material balance areas - replacement of nuclear material, e. g. use of dummy objects - falsification of measurements or of their evaluation - interference with IAEA installed equipment.As a result of diversion and its concealment or other actions, anomalies will occur. All reasonable diversion routes, scenarios/strategies and concealment methods have to be taken into account in designing safeguards implementation strategies so as to provide sufficient opportunities for the IAEA to observe such anomalies. The safeguards approach for each facility will make a different use of these procedures, equipment and instrumentation according to the various diversion strategies which could be applicable to that facility and according to the detection and inspection goals which are applied. Postulated pathways sets of scenarios comprise those elements of diversion strategies which might be carried out at a facility or across a State's fuel cycle with declared or undeclared activities. All such factors, however, contain a degree of fuzziness that need a human judgment to make the ultimate conclusion that all material is being used for peaceful purposes. Safeguards has been traditionally based on verification of declared material and facilities using material accountancy as a fundamental measure. The strength of material accountancy is based on the fact that it allows to detect any diversion independent of the diversion route taken. Material accountancy detects a diversion after it actually happened and thus is powerless to physically prevent it and can only deter by the risk of early detection any contemplation by State authorities to carry out a diversion. Recently the IAEA has been faced with new challenges. To deal with these, various measures are being reconsidered to strengthen the safeguards system such as enhanced assessment of the completeness of the State's initial declaration of nuclear material and installations under its jurisdiction enhanced monitoring and analysis of open information and analysis of open information that may indicate inconsistencies with the State's safeguards obligations. Precise information vital for such enhanced assessments and analyses is normally not available or, if available, difficult and expensive collection of information would be necessary. Above all, realistic appraisal of truth needs sound human judgment.

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