• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Probability

검색결과 1,139건 처리시간 0.023초

간암에서 호흡주기를 고려한 2-차원 방사선 치료 방법과 3-차원 입체조형 치료방법에서 방사선 간염 예측의 비교연구 (Comparative Study Between Respiratory Gated Conventional 2-D Plan and 3-D Conformal Plan for Predicting Radiation Hepatitis)

  • 이상욱;김귀언;정갑수;이창걸;성진실;서창옥
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.455-467
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    • 1998
  • 목적 : 방사선치료계획시 호흡에 의한 장기의 움직임이 고려하는 경우 호흡이 방사선치료에 따른 합병증 발생에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법 : 3차원 입체조형치료를 받은 간암 환자 4례를 대상으로 하여 방사선치료 계획용컴퓨터상에서 재분석을 하였다. 호흡주기에 따라 방사선치료를 시행 받는다고 가정하여 계획용표적체적의 상하 범위를 줄여 기존의 2-차원 치료계획을 시행한 경우와 자유롭게 호흡하면서 계획된 3-차원 입체조형치료에서 정상간과 주변정상장기의 선량체적히스토그람과 normal tissue complication probability(NTCP)를 비교하였다. 결과 : 간의 호흡에 의한 상하 운동범위는 2-3cm 이었고 호흡주기에 따른 기존의 2차원 방사선치료 방법과 자유롭게 호흡하면서 시행된 3-차원적 입체조형치료 간의 계획용표적체적과 잔여정상간, 주변정상장기의 선량체적히스토그람의 뚜렷한 차이는 관찰할 수 없었다. 또한 정상잔여간의 NTCP의 차이도 관찰할 수 없었다. 결론 : 간에 대한 방사선치료시 호흡에 의해 장기의 움직임을 고려한 방사선치료계획은 방사선치료에 따른 합병증 발생에 매우 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 생각되었고 향후 이 문제점을 극복할 수 있는 많은 연구가 필요 할것으로 생각된다.

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The Predictable Factors of the Postoperative Kyphotic Change of Sagittal Alignment of the Cervical Spine after the Laminoplasty

  • Lee, Jun Seok;Son, Dong Wuk;Lee, Su Hun;Kim, Dong Ha;Lee, Sang Weon;Song, Geun Sung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제60권5호
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    • pp.577-583
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    • 2017
  • Objective : Laminoplasty is an effective surgical method for treating cervical degenerative disease. However, postoperative complications such as kyphosis, restriction of neck motion, and instability are often reported. Despite sufficient preoperative lordosis, this procedure often aggravates the lordotic curve of the cervical spine and straightens cervical alignment. Hence, it is important to examine preoperative risk factors associated with postoperative kyphotic alignment changes. Our study aimed to investigate preoperative radiologic parameters associated with kyphotic deformity post laminoplasty. Methods : We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 49 patients who underwent open door laminoplasty for cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) or ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) at Pusan National University Yangsan Hospital between January 2011 and December 2015. Inclusion criteria were as follows : 1) preoperative diagnosis of OPLL or CSM, 2) no previous history of cervical spinal surgery, cervical trauma, tumor, or infection, 3) minimum of one-year follow-up post laminoplasty with proper radiologic examinations performed in outpatient clinics, and 4) cases showing C7 and T1 vertebral body in the preoperative cervical sagittal plane. The radiologic parameters examined included C2-C7 Cobb angles, T1 slope, C2-C7 sagittal vertical axis (SVA), range of motion (ROM) from C2-C7, segmental instability, and T2 signal change observed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Clinical factors examined included preoperative modified Japanese Orthopedic Association scores, disease classification, duration of symptoms, and the range of operation levels. Results : Mean preoperative sagittal alignment was $13.01^{\circ}$ lordotic; $6.94^{\circ}$ lordotic postoperatively. Percentage of postoperative kyphosis was 80%. Patients were subdivided into two groups according to postoperative Cobb angle change; a control group (n=22) and kyphotic group (n=27). The kyphotic group consisted of patients with more than $5^{\circ}$ kyphotic angle change postoperatively. There were no differences in age, sex, C2-C7 Cobb angle, T1 slope, C2-C7 SVA, ROM from C2-C7, segmental instability, or T2 signal change. Multiple regression analysis revealed T1 slope had a strong relationship with postoperative cervical kyphosis. Likewise, correlation analysis revealed there was a statistical significance between T1 slope and postoperative Cobb angle change (p=0.035), and that there was a statistically significant relationship between T1 slope and C2-C7 SVA (p=0.001). Patients with higher preoperative T1 slope demonstrated loss of lordotic curvature postoperatively. Conclusion : Laminoplasty has a high probability of aggravating sagittal balance of the cervical spine. T1 slope is a good predictor of postoperative kyphotic changes of the cervical spine. Similarly, T1 slope is strongly correlated with C2-C7 SVA.

농업용수의 미생물학적 안전성 조사 및 위생지표세균 농도와 병원성미생물 검출률과의 상관관계 분석 (Investigation of Microbial Safety and Correlations Between the Level of Sanitary Indicator Bacteria and the Detection Ratio of Pathogens in Agricultural Water)

  • 황인준;이태권;박대수;김은선;최송이;현정은;나겐드란 라자린감;김세리;조민
    • 한국환경농학회지
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    • 제40권4호
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    • pp.248-259
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    • 2021
  • BACKGROUND: Contaminated water was a major source of food-borne pathogens in various recent fresh produce-related outbreaks. This study was conducted to investigate the microbial contamination level and correlations between the level of sanitary indicator bacteria and the detection ratio of pathogens in agricultural water by logistic regression analysis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Agricultural water was collected from 457 sites including surface water (n=300 sites) and groundwater (n=157 sites) in South Korea from 2018 to 2020. Sanitary indicator bacteria (total coliform, fecal coliform, and Escherichia coli) and food-borne pathogens (pathogenic E. coli, E. coli O157:H7, Salmonella spp., and Listeria monocytogenes) were analyzed. In surface water, the coliform, fecal coliform, and E. coli were 3.27±0.89 log CFU/100 mL, 1.90±1.19 log CFU/100 mL, and 1.39±1.26 log CFU/100 mL, respectively. For groundwater, three kinds of sanitary indicators ranged in the level from 0.09 - 0.57 log CFU/100 mL. Pathogenic E. coli, Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes were detected from 3%-site, 1.5%- site, and 0.6%-site water samples, respectively. According to the results of correlations between the level of sanitary indicator bacteria and the detection ratio of pathogens by logistic regression analysis, the probability of pathogen detection increased individually by 1.45 and 1.34 times as each total coliform and E. coli concentration increased by 1 log CFU/100mL. The accuracy of the model was 70.4%, and sensitivity and specificity were 81.5% and 51.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION(S): The results indicate the need to manage the microbial risk of agricultural water to enhance the safety of fresh produce. In addition, logistic regression analysis is useful to analyze the correlation between the level of sanitary indicator bacteria and the detection ratio of pathogens in agricultural water.

Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence 및 Artificial Neural Network 모델을 이용한 산사태 공간 취약성 예측 연구 (Landslide Susceptibility Prediction using Evidential Belief Function, Weight of Evidence and Artificial Neural Network Models)

  • 이사로;오현주
    • 대한원격탐사학회지
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    • 제35권2호
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    • pp.299-316
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구는 지리정보시스템(GIS) 환경에서 확률 모델인 Weight Of Evidence (WOE)와 Evidential Belief Function (EBF), 기계학습 모델인 Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) 모델을 이용하여 평창지역의 산사태 취약성도를 공간적으로 분석하고 예측하였다. 본 연구지역은 2006년 태풍 에위니아에 의한 집중호우로 산사태가 많이 발생하여 많은 재산 및 인명피해가 발생하였다. 산사태 취약성도를 작성하기 위해 항공사진을 이용하여 3,955개의 방대한 산사태 발생 위치를 탐지하였고, 환경공간정보인 지형, 지질, 토양, 산림 및 토지이용 등의 공간 데이터를 수집하여 공간데이터베이스에 구축하였다. 이러한 공간데이터베이스를 이용하여 산사태에 영향을 줄 수 있는 인자 17개를 추출하여 입력 인자와 EBF, WOE, ANN 모델을 이용하여 산사태 취약성도를 작성하고 검증하였다. 작성 및 검증을 위해 산사태 자료는 각각 50%씩 나누어서 훈련 및 검증을 실시하였고, 검증결과 WOE 모델의 경우는 74.73%, EBF 모델의 경우는 75.03%, ANN 모델의 경우는 70.87%의 예측 정확도를 나타내었다. 본 연구에 사용된 모델 중 EBF 모델이 가장 높은 정확도를 나타냈으며, 모든 모델에서 70% 이상의 예측 정확도를 보여 본 연구에서 사용된 기법이 산사태 취약성도 작성에 유효함을 나타내었다. 본 연구에서 제안된 WOE, EBF, ANN 모델과 산사태 취약성도는 이전에 산사태가 발생하지 않은 지역의 산사태를 예측하는 데 사용될 수 있다. 이러한 취약성도는 산사태 위험 감소를 촉진하고, 토지 이용 정책 및 개발을 위한 기초자료 역할을 할 수 있으며, 궁극적으로 산사태 재해 예방을 위한 시간과 비용을 절약할 수 있다. 향후 보다 많은 지역에서 산사태 취약성도 작성 방법을 적용하여 산사태 위험 예측을 위한 일반화된 모델을 이끌어 내야 한다.

RCP 기후변화 시나리오를 활용한 남북공유하천유역 미래 극한강수량 변화 전망 (Prospects of future extreme precipitation in South-North Korea shared river basin according to RCP climate change scenarios)

  • 염웅선;박동혁;권민성;안재현
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제52권9호
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    • pp.647-655
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    • 2019
  • 남한과 북한이 군사분계선을 경계로 공동으로 점유하고 있는 남북공유하천유역은 과거부터 하천관리, 홍수조절 등 다양한 문제가 지속적으로 발생해 왔다. 그러나 협력과 조정에 한계가 있어 유역 관리에 대한 지속적인 연구와 협력이 진행되지 못하였다. 기후변화로 인해 수문현상의 규모와 빈도가 변화하고 있어 공유하천유역의 강수변동성에 관한 대비책 마련이 필요하지만, 이에 대한 연구는 미비한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 13개 전 지구 기후 모델의 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway, 이하 RCP)4.5와 RCP8.5 시나리오를 공유하천유역 인접 11개 관측소에 적용하여 극한강수량 변동성을 규모와 빈도의 측면에서 분석하였다. 분석 결과 공유하천유역의 참조기간(1981-2005) 대비 확률강우량은 RCP4.5 시나리오와 RCP8.5 시나리오 모두 전 기간에서 증가하였다. 또한 재현기간 20년 규모의 강우 빈도는 RCP4.5 시나리오의 중반기(2041-2070)와 후반기(2071-2100)를 제외하고 전 기간에서 증가하여 극한강수의 출현빈도가 점차 빨라지고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 결과적으로 공유하천유역 내 극한강수량은 그 규모와 빈도가 모두 증가하여 기후변화로 인한 상당한 영향이 있을 것으로 전망되며, 이에 대한 대비가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

Comparison of Dosimetrical and Radiobiological Parameters on Three VMAT Techniques for Left-Sided Breast Cancer

  • Kang, Seong-Hee;Chung, Jin-Beom;Kim, Kyung-Hyeon;Kang, Sang-Won;Eom, Keun-Yong;Song, Changhoon;Kim, In-Ah;Kim, Jae-Sung
    • 한국의학물리학회지:의학물리
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.7-13
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: To compare the dosimetrical and radiobiological parameters among various volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) techniques using restricted and continuous arc beams for left-sided breast cancer. Materials and Methods: Ten patients with left-sided breast cancer without regional nodes were retrospectively selected and prescribed the dose of 42.6 Gy in 16 fractions on the planning target volume (PTV). For each patient, three plans were generated using the $Eclipse^{TM}$ system (Varian Medical System, Palo Alto, CA) with one partial arc 1pVMAT, two partial arcs 2pVMAT, and two tangential arcs 2tVMAT. All plans were calculated through anisotropic analytic algorithm and photon optimizer with 6 MV photon beam of $VitalBEAM^{TM}$. The same dose objectives for each plan were used to achieve a fair comparison during optimization. Results: For PTV, dosimetrical parameters such as Homogeneity index, conformity index, and conformal number were superior in 2pVMAT than those in both techniques. $V_{95%}$, which indicates PTV coverage, was 91.86%, 96.60%, and 96.65% for 1pVMAT, 2pVMAT, and 2tVMAT, respectively. In most organs at risk (OARs), 2pVMAT significantly reduced the delivered doses compared with the other techniques, excluding the doses to contralateral lung. For the analysis of radiobiological parameters, a significant difference in normal tissue complication probability was observed in ipsilateral lung while no difference was observed in the other OARs. Conclusions: Our study showed that 2pVMAT had better plan quality and normal tissue sparing than 1pVMAT and 2tVMAT but not for all parameters. Therefore, 2pVMAT could be considered the priority choice for the treatment planning for left breast cancer.

A Prognostic Factor for Prolonged Mechanical Ventilator-Dependent Respiratory Failure after Cervical Spinal Cord Injury : Maximal Canal Compromise on Magnetic Resonance Imaging

  • Lee, Subum;Roh, Sung Woo;Jeon, Sang Ryong;Park, Jin Hoon;Kim, Kyoung-Tae;Lee, Young-Seok;Cho, Dae-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제64권5호
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    • pp.791-798
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    • 2021
  • Objective : The period of mechanical ventilator (MV)-dependent respiratory failure after cervical spinal cord injury (CSCI) varies from patient to patient. This study aimed to identify predictors of MV at hospital discharge (MVDC) due to prolonged respiratory failure among patients with MV after CSCI. Methods : Two hundred forty-three patients with CSCI were admitted to our institution between May 2006 and April 2018. Their medical records and radiographic data were retrospectively reviewed. Level and completeness of injury were defined according to the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) standards. Respiratory failure was defined as the requirement for definitive airway and assistance of MV. We also evaluated magnetic resonance imaging characteristics of the cervical spine. These characteristics included : maximum canal compromise (MCC); intramedullary hematoma or cord transection; and integrity of the disco-ligamentous complex for assessment of the Subaxial Cervical Spine Injury Classification (SLIC) scoring. The inclusion criteria were patients with CSCI who underwent decompression surgery within 48 hours after trauma with respiratory failure during hospital stay. Patients with Glasgow coma scale 12 or lower, major fatal trauma of vital organs, or stroke caused by vertebral artery injury were excluded from the study. Results : Out of 243 patients with CSCI, 30 required MV during their hospital stay, and 27 met the inclusion criteria. Among them, 48.1% (13/27) of patients had MVDC with greater than 30 days MV or death caused by aspiration pneumonia. In total, 51.9% (14/27) of patients could be weaned from MV during 30 days or less of hospital stay (MV days : MVDC 38.23±20.79 vs. MV weaning, 13.57±8.40; p<0.001). Vital signs at hospital arrival, smoking, the American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, Associated injury with Injury Severity Score, SLIC score, and length of cord edema did not differ between the MVDC and MV weaning groups. The ASIA impairment scale, level of injury within C3 to C6, and MCC significantly affected MVDC. The MCC significantly correlated with MVDC, and the optimal cutoff value was 51.40%, with 76.9% sensitivity and 78.6% specificity. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, MCC >51.4% was a significant risk factor for MVDC (odds ratio, 7.574; p=0.039). Conclusion : As a method of predicting which patients would be able to undergo weaning from MV early, the MCC is a valid factor. If the MCC exceeds 51.4%, prognosis of respiratory function becomes poor and the probability of MVDC is increased.

생물서식지 적합성 평가를 위한 Delft3D와 HABITAT 모델의 연계 적용 (Application of Integrated Modelling Framework Consisted of Delft3D and HABITAT for Habitat Suitability Assessment)

  • 임혜정;나은혜;전형철;송호진;유호준;황순홍;류희성
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제37권3호
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    • pp.217-228
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    • 2021
  • This paper discusses a methodology where an integrated modelling framework is used to quantify the risk derived from anthropic activities on habitats and species. To achieve this purpose, a tool comprising the Delft3D and HABITAT model, was applied in the Yeongsan river. Delft3D effectively simulated the operational condition and flow of weirs in river. In accuracy evaluation of the Delft3D-FLOW, the Bias, Pbias, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Index of Agreement (IOA) were used, and the result was evaluated as grade above 'Satisfactory'. The HABITAT calculated Habitat Suitability Value (HSV) for the following eight species: mammal, fish, aquatic plant, and benthic macroinvertebrate. An Area was defined as a suitable habitat if the HSV was larger than 0.5. HABITAT was judged accurately by measuring the Correct Classification rate (CCR) and the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For benthic macroinvertebrate, the CCR and AUC were 77% and 0.834, respectively, at thresholds of 0.017 and 4 inds/m2 for HSV and individuals per unit area. This meant that the HABITAT model accurately predicted the appearance of the benthic macroinvertebrates by approximately 77% and that the probability of false alarms was also very low. As a result of evaluating the suitability of habitats, in the Yeongsan river, if the annual "lowest level" (Seungchon weir: 2.5 EL.m/ Juksan weir: -1.35 EL.m) was maintained, the average habitat improvement effect of 6.5%P compared to the 'reference' scenario was predicted. Consequently, it was demonstrated that the integrated modelling framework for habitat suitability assessment is able to support the remedy aquatic ecological management.

농작물을 위한 드론 분무 농약 살포의 3차원 분석에 관한 연구 (Study on Three-Dimensional Analysis of Agricultural Plants and Drone-Spray Pesticide)

  • 문인식;권현진;김미현;장세명;나인호;김흥태
    • 스마트미디어저널
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.176-186
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    • 2020
  • 농작물들의 크기와 형태는 매우 다양하며 생육 환경도 각기 다르다. 따라서 드론을 활용하여 농약을 살포할 때에는 각 농작물에 대한 재배 환경과 특성이 고려되어야 하며, 이에 따라 드론의 비행고도, 전진속도 등 비행 조건이 달라져야 한다. 실제로 비행 조건에 따라 농약의 액적 유동이 크게 영향을 받게 되며, 살포 영역에 큰 변화가 발생하고 이로 인해 불균일한 액적 분포가 후류에 형성되어 농약의 전달 효율성이 떨어질 수 있을 뿐만 아니라 비산에 대한 위험성이 존재하게 된다. 본 논문에서는 농업용 드론을 사용하여 특성이 다른 3가지 농작물을 선정하고 드론의 비행 조건을 각각 다르게 하여 농약을 살포했을 때 후류에서의 노즐 유동을 수치해석을 통하여 분석하였으며, 전달되는 액체의 비율을 확률 밀도 함수의 평균 제곱근을 나눈 새로운 성능지수를 이용하여 비교함으로써 작물의 특성에 따른 드론의 농약 살포 가이드라인을 구축하고자 한다.

국내 침입외래식물 사막갓(Brassica tournefortii; Brassicaceae)의 보고 및 잠재 분포 예측 (New record and prediction of the potential distribution of the invasive alien species Brassica tournefortii (Brassicaceae) in Korea)

  • 강은수;김한결;남명자;최미정;손동찬
    • 식물분류학회지
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    • 제52권3호
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    • pp.184-195
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    • 2022
  • 침입외래식물인 Brassica tournefortii Gouan이 전북 군산시, 고창군, 제주도 제주시에서 발견되었다. 본 종은 식물체 기부에 강모가 밀생하고, 줄기가 기부와 말단에서 분지하며, 열매는 성숙시 일부분만 열개되고, 종자는 수분이 있을 때 점성이 띠는 특징으로 배추속의 갓, 유채와 쉽게 구분된다. 일부 학자들은 B. tournefortii의 열매와 종자의 특징으로 Coincya Rouy 속에 속하는 분류군으로 취급하기도 하나, 열매의 과피편 표면에 한개의 맥이 있는 특징과, ITS 구간 염기서열의 maximum-likelihood 분석 결과에 따라 배추속 식물로 분류하였다. 본 연구에서 B. tournefortii의 분포지, 화상자료 및 기재문을 제시하였으며, 또한 본 종의 잠재분포변화가 기후 시나리오에 의해 예측되었다. 예측 결과, B. tournefortii의 국내 확산 가능성은 낮은 것으로 나타났지만, 정확한 판단을 하기 위해서는 지속적인 모니터링이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구의 결과들은 B. tournefortii의 위험성 평가 및 효과적인 관리방안을 제시하기 위한 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.