• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Probability

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Parotid gland sparing effect by computed tomography-based modified lower field margin in whole brain radiotherapy

  • Cho, Oyeon;Chun, Mison;Park, Sung Ho;Oh, Young-Taek;Kim, Mi-Hwa;Park, Hae-Jin;Nam, Sang Soo;Heo, Jaesung;Noh, O Kyu
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.12-17
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: Parotid gland can be considered as a risk organ in whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the parotid gland sparing effect of computed tomography (CT)-based WBRT compared to 2-dimensional plan with conventional field margin. Materials and Methods: From January 2008 to April 2011, 53 patients underwent WBRT using CT-based simulation. Bilateral two-field arrangement was used and the prescribed dose was 30 Gy in 10 fractions. We compared the parotid dose between 2 radiotherapy plans using different lower field margins: conventional field to the lower level of the atlas (CF) and modified field fitted to the brain tissue (MF). Results: Averages of mean parotid dose of the 2 protocols with CF and MF were 17.4 Gy and 8.7 Gy, respectively (p < 0.001). Mean parotid dose of both glands ${\geq}20$ Gy were observed in 15 (28.3%) for CF and in 0 (0.0%) for MF. The whole brain percentage volumes receiving >98% of prescribed dose were 99.7% for CF and 99.5% for MF. Conclusion: Compared to WBRT with CF, CT-based lower field margin modification is a simple and effective technique for sparing the parotid gland, while providing similar dose coverage of the whole brain.

Integrated Watershed Modeling Under Uncertainty (불확실성을 고려한 통합유역모델링)

  • Ham, Jong-Hwa;Yoon, Chun-Gyoung;Loucks, Daniel P.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2007
  • The uncertainty in water quality model predictions is inevitably high due to natural stochasticity, model uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. An integrated modeling system under uncertainty was described and demonstrated for use in watershed management and receiving-water quality prediction. A watershed model (HSPF), a receiving water quality model (WASP), and a wetland model (NPS-WET) were incorporated into an integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) and applied to the Hwaseong Reservoir watershed. Reservoir water quality was predicted using the calibrated integrated modeling system, and the deterministic integrated modeling output was useful for estimating mean water quality given future watershed conditions and assessing the spatial distribution of pollutant loads. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to investigate the effect of various uncertainties on output prediction. Without pollution control measures in the watershed, the concentrations of total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorous (T-P) in the Hwaseong Reservoir, considering uncertainty, would be less than about 4.8 and 0.26 mg 4.8 and 0.26 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively, with 95% confidence. The effects of two watershed management practices, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a constructed wetland (WETLAND), were evaluated. The combined scenario (WWTP + WETLAND) was the most effective at improving reservoir water quality, bringing concentrations of T-N and T-P in the Hwaseong Reservoir to less than 3.54 and 0.15 mg ${L^{-1}$, 26.7 and 42.9% improvements, respectively, with 95% confidence. Overall, the Monte Carlo simulation in the integrated modeling system was practical for estimating uncertainty and reliable in water quality prediction. The approach described here may allow decisions to be made based on probability and level of risk, and its application is recommended.

Neuroblastoma - Experience in One Center - (신경모세포종 -15년간 한 병원에서의 임상적 경험-)

  • Kim, Dae-Yeon;Kim, Seong-Chul;Kim, In-Koo
    • Advances in pediatric surgery
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 2005
  • Neuroblastoma treatment remains challenging, but treatment has become more effective due to the establishment of clinical and biological variables that determine prognostic risks. Initially, stage and age were the prime determinants of survival used in clinical practice. Risk-based therapy currently is the hallmark of neuroblastoma treatment. This study reviews one center's experience with the management of neuroblastoma. Sixty-three patients with neuroblastoma were treated from 1989 to 2003. All patients were graded according to the International Neuroblastoma Staging System (INSS) at diagnosis. There were 37 boys and 26 girls. The median age was 2.14 years (range, 33 days-10.2years). The primary site was the adrenal gland in 47, dumbbell shape extending into spinal canal in 6, retroperitoneum in 5, mediastinum in 3, and other sites in 2. The probability of 5-year overall survival (OS) and event free survival (EFS) were 46.7 % and 44.2 % by Kaplan-Meier method. According to INSS, there were stage 1 in 2 cases, stage 2 in 5, stage 3 in 12, stage 4 in 42, and stage 4s in 2. There were statistically significant differences in the survival rates between patients with stage1, 2 and stage 3, 4(P<0.05). For the stage 3 and 4, the extents of surgical resection, determined from the operative records and pathologies, were complete resection in 17 cases, minimal residual in 15, and partial resection 11, and the 5-year OS rate was 57.8, 51.4, and 13.6 %, respectively. There is a trend toward higher OS with more complete resection (P<0.05). We conclude that age and stage at diagnosis are prognostic factors, and complete excision of the primary tumor can provide better prognosis for patients with stage 3 and 4 neuroblastoma.

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A Study on Utilization Ratio and Operation of Transmission Lines (송전선로의 이용률 평가 및 합리적 운영에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Min;Bae, In-Su;Cho, Jong-Man;Kim, Jin-O
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.426-432
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    • 2006
  • This paper describes the concepts of Static Line Rating (SLR) and Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) and the computational methods to demonstrate them. Calculation of the line capacity needs the heat balance equation which is also used for computing the reduced tension in terms of line aging. SLR is calculated with the data from the worst condition of weather throughout the year. Even now, the utilization ratio is obtained from this SLR data in Korea. DLR is the improved method compared to SLR. A process for DLR reveals not only improved line ratings but also more accurate allowed line ratings based on line aging and real time conditions of weather. In order to reflect overhead transmission line aging in DLR, this paper proposes the method that considers the amount of decreased tension since the lines have been installed. Therefore, the continuous allowed temperature for remaining life time is newly acquired. In order to forecast DLR, this paper uses weather forecast models, and applies the concept of Thermal Overload Risk Probability (TORP). Then, the new concept of Dynamic Utilization Ratio (DUR) is defined, replacing Static Utilization Ratio (SUR). For the case study, the two main transmission lines which are responsible for the north bound power flow in the Seoul metropolitan area are chosen for computing line rating and utilization ratio. And then line rating and utilization ratio are analyzed for each transmission line, so that comparison of the present and estimated utilization ratios becomes available. Finally, this paper proves the validity of predictive DUR as the objective index, with simulations of emergency state caused by system outages, overload and so on.

Determinants of Shopping Experience for Mall Shoppers: Empirical Investigation in an Emerging City of Raipur (India)

  • Singh, Harvinder;Prashar, Sanjeev;Agarwal, Rashmi;Sharma, Tarun Kumar
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2014
  • Shopping malls have become key players in the Indian retail space. Even in upcoming Indian towns, malls have been mushrooming. Raipur, the capital city of the Indian state of Chhattisgarh has witnessed the growth over the last few years. However, this unplanned growth of malls in cities is expected to lead to oversupply of mall space in the near future, making things difficult for mall developers. The study is an attempt to identify appropriate strategies for mall developers to iron out such kinks. This paper presents 'shopping experience' as a tool to compete, succeed and explore its composition in terms of its constituent factors. The paper uses Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) on a non-probability sample of 350 respondents. It condenses a set of twenty-two mall variables into five factors that directly influence the shopping experience. These factors included ambience, infrastructure, marketing focus, convenience and safety and security. In terms of significance, shoppers assigned different weightage to each of these factors. The study shed light on interesting insights regarding the expectations of mall shoppers in the city of Raipur. The results though interesting, may be extended to different social, economic and geographic contexts to check the universality. While strategizing, mall developers must assign proportionate effort on the factors based on the respective contribution to shopping experience. In light of intensifying competition in Raipur, the study is significant for future prospects of malls. In the absence of a scientific and objective basis, the developers run risk of making wrong investment and management decisions. This paper is a useful addition to the body of knowledge on management of shopping malls in India and is unique in terms of its focus on mall shoppers in the smaller Indian cities like Raipur.

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Differential Effects of Educational Attainment on Chronic Diseases with Age (연령에 따른 교육수준과 만성질환의 관계)

  • Lee, Min-Ah
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.179-198
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study was to examine relationships between chronic diseases, age, and education in Korea. Logistic regression techniques were used to analyze data from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA), which is a nationally representative sample of Koreans aged 45 years and older. The findings show that probability of having chronic diseases increased with age up to about 74; however, it was reduced for respondents aged 74 years or older. Associations between age and chronic diseases were also differential by education. Less educated Koreans tended to have chronic diseases earlier in their lifetime; however, they were likely to have chronic diseases later in life less than more educated counterparts. The findings suggest that individuals with fewer years of education are at an increased risk of developing chronic diseases earlier in their lifetimes, thereby, leading to a higher rate of mortality at younger ages.

A Study on the Scale Effort Estimation Model based on Industry Characteristics (산업별 특성에 따른 소요공수 규모 산정 모델 연구)

  • Kwoak, Song-Hae;Park, Koo-Rack;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.233-240
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    • 2016
  • Information system development projects, have a mechanism for many of the costs generated by a variety of risk factors. In general, the probability that the software project of the information system is carried out successfully in the delivery time is very low. This prediction of a formal cost is needed as the most important factor since it can prevent the project from being failed. However, objectivity of most of the project scale calculation during the calculation criteria is insufficient. Further, it is the actual situation that the management of the base line is not properly made during the project. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a model to calculate the number of steps it takes to develop on the basis of a methodology in an attempt to overcome the limitation of being unpractical in the early stage of the information system development project. It is expected to be a tool to estimate the effort and cost required by the information system development business through these convergence proposals model.

Analysis of premature death of Sprague-Dawley rats in carcinogenicity studies

  • Son, Woo-Chan;Kim, Bae-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.373-378
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    • 2004
  • To help the interpretation of causes of death, it is critical that the background incidence of factors contributing to death be recorded and archived. Information was gathered from the control groups of 19 rat carcinogenicity studies. All cases of death occurring within the 2-year period were reviewed. Out of 1124 males and 1084 females, 720 male (64.1%) and 689 female (63.6%) decedents were recorded. There was no difference in the probability of survival between two sexes. Analysis of factors contributing to death revealed that 400 males (48.7%) had neoplastic changes, 189 males (23.0%) had non-neoplastic lesions, and 232 males (28.3%) died from unknown causes. In females, these figures were 627 (76.4%), 62 (7.6%) and 132 (16.0%), for neoplastic, non-neoplastic and unknown findings, respectively. It could be suggested that the risk of death by non-neoplastic reasons was higher in the males than in the females, whereas females were more likely to be affected by tumours. In the neoplastic causes of death, pituitary tumours were the most common in both sexes, followed by mammary tumours in females, and haemopoietic tumours in males. In non-neoplastic cause of death, renal diseases were the most common in both sexes, followed by skin diseases and cardiovascular diseases in males, and skin diseases and poditis in males. A relatively large number of animals (28.3% in males and 16.0% in females) were found dead, without any significant clinical or histologically identifiable cause. Most of the animals with pituitary tumours were killed in extremis and the proportion of females (70.1%) being greater than males (46.8%). There were no case which died by accident, and also only minimal incidence which died by bleeding procedures.

Study on abnormal behavior prediction models using flexible multi-level regression (유연성 다중 회귀 모델을 활용한 보행자 이상 행동 예측 모델 연구)

  • Jung, Yu Jin;Yoon, Yong Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2016
  • In the recently, violent crime and accidental crime has been generated continuously. Consequently, people anxiety has been heightened. The Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) has been used to ensure the security and evidence for the crimes. However, the video captured from CCTV has being used in the post-processing to apply to the evidence. In this paper, we propose a flexible multi-level models for estimating whether dangerous behavior and the environment and context for pedestrians. The situation analysis builds the knowledge for the pedestrians tracking. Finally, the decision step decides and notifies the threat situation when the behavior observed object is determined to abnormal behavior. Thereby, tracking the behavior of objects in a multi-region, it can be seen that the risk of the object behavior. It can be predicted by the behavior prediction of crime.

Full mouth rehabilitation of an oligodontia patient with intellectual disability based on shortened dental arch concept: a case report (2급 지적 장애를 가진 환자의 SDA 개념을 적용한 전악 수복 증례)

  • You, Jae-Wook;Heo, Seong-Joo;Kim, Seong-Kyun;Koak, Jai-Young
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.330-335
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    • 2012
  • Shortened dental arch (SDA) as a treatment goal is the concept that stable occlusion and enough masticatory force can be achieved by restoration to the second premolars when the situation is not favorable. SDA could be applied both natural teeth and implant supported fixed prostheses. This case dealt with a patient who has grade 2 intellectual disability and a lot of missing teeth. Because of intellectual disability, patient cooperation during treatment could not be expected. Therefore every treatment should be done under general anesthesia. In addition to that, ridge resorption around molar area was severe and there were maxillary sinus pneumatization and maxillary sinusitis which increased failure probability. SDA concept was adopted to reduce risk factor and minimize general anesthesia. After the treatment, functional and esthetic improvement was achieved and oral hygiene was fortified by periodic recall check and education.