• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Probability

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Tone-Based Access Scheme with Repetitive Contention in Contention-Based Medium Access Control (경쟁 기반 MAC에서의 반복적 톤 기반 경쟁 기법)

  • Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Yun, Jeong-Kyun;Bahk, Sae-Woong
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.32 no.5A
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    • pp.460-466
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    • 2007
  • There are two coordination functions in IEEE 802.11 standard. One is PCF, polling based function, and the other is DCF, contention based function. DCF is simpler than PCF but the performance is similar with the latter. That's the reason why DCF is more popular than PCF. However, DCF has a risk of collision with other nodes in the network because the function is a distributed contention based one. CSMA/CA of DCF has collision avoidance algorithm in it, but the performance of avoidance algorithm has limitations. In this paper we proposed a new scheme called TAR(Tone-based Access scheme with Repetitive conention). In TAR, there is narrow contention-only channel other than original data transmitting channel, so that both a data transmission and the contention can be performed simultaneously. The TAR uses the same contention concept with the CSMA/CA, but it has the originality for the narrow contention channel and the repetitive contention scheme which greatly reduce the collision probability. We proved the performance of TAR by some simulations, and it showed good results.

Nomogram comparison conducted by logistic regression and naïve Bayesian classifier using type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) (제 2형 당뇨병을 이용한 로지스틱과 베이지안 노모그램 구축 및 비교)

  • Park, Jae-Cheol;Kim, Min-Ho;Lee, Jea-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.573-585
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we fit the logistic regression model and naïve Bayesian classifier model using 11 risk factors to predict the incidence rate probability for type 2 diabetes mellitus. We then introduce how to construct a nomogram that can help people visually understand it. We use data from the 2013-2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). We take 3 interactions in the logistic regression model to improve the quality of the analysis and facilitate the application of the left-aligned method to the Bayesian nomogram. Finally, we compare the two nomograms and examine their utility. Then we verify the nomogram using the ROC curve.

Spousal Dissimilarity in Age and Education and Marital Stability among Transnational Couples in Korea: A Test of the Transnational Openness Hypothesis (국제결혼 부부의 연령 및 교육수준 격차와 결혼안정성: 국제결혼개방성 가설의 검증)

  • Kim, Doo-Sub
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2012
  • This study explores the effects of spousal dissimilarity on marital stability among transnational couples in Korea. Utilizing micro-data from the 2009 Korean National Multi-culture Family Survey, this paper examines whether formation of transnational marriage generally involves positive assortative matching on age and education. Indices of age dissimilarity and educational dissimilarity are calculated for each country of origin of the foreign wife, and their relationships to the average duration of marriage are analyzed. This study also conducts a micro-level analysis of whether age and educational dissimilarity between spouses helps explain variations in marital duration and probability of getting divorced. Results show greater incidences of spousal dissimilarity in age and educational attainment among transnational couples, which supports the transnational openness hypothesis proposed in this paper. The extant hypothesis that spousal dissimilarity increases the risk of marital dissolution and shortens the duration of marriage is not found to fit transnational couples in Korea.

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Surgical Perspective of T1799A BRAF Mutation Diagnostic Value in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

  • Brahma, Bayu;Yulian, Erwin Danil;Ramli, Muchlis;Setianingsih, Iswari;Gautama, Walta;Brahma, Putri;Sastroasmoro, Sudigdo;Harimurti, Kuntjoro
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2013
  • Background: Throughout Indonesia, thyroid cancer is one of the ten commonest malignancies, with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in our hospital accounting for about 60% of all thyroid nodules. Although fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) is the most reliable diagnostic tool, some nodules are diagnosed as indeterminate and second surgery is common for PTC. The aim of this study was to establish the diagnostic value and feasibility of testing the BRAF T1799A mutation on FNA specimens for improving PTC diagnosis. Materials and Methods: This prospective study enrolled 95 patients with thyroid nodules and future surgery planned. Results of mutational status were compared with surgical pathology diagnosis. Results: Of the 70 cases included in the final analysis, 62.8% were PTC and the prevalence of BRAF mutation was 38.6%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for BRAF mutation analysis were 36%, 100%, 100% and 48%, respectively. With other data findings, nodules with "onset less than 5 year" and "hard consistency" were proven as diagnostic determinants for BRAF mutation with a probability of 62.5%. This mutation was also a significant risk factor for extra-capsular extension. Conclusions: Molecular analysis of the BRAF T1799A mutation in FNAB specimens has high specificity and positive predictive value for PTC. It could be used in the selective patients with clinical characteristics to facilitate PTC diagnosis and for guidance regarding extent of thyroidectomy.

Predictors of Blood and Body Fluid Exposure and Mediating Effects of Infection Prevention Behavior in Shift-Working Nurses: Application of Analysis Method for Zero-Inflated Count Data (교대근무 간호사의 혈액과 체액 노출 사고 예측 요인과 감염예방행위의 매개효과: 영과잉 가산 자료 분석방법을 적용하여)

  • Ryu, Jae Geum;Choi-Kwon, Smi
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.658-670
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study aimed to identify the predictors of blood and body fluid exposure (BBFE) in multifaceted individual (sleep disturbance and fatigue), occupational (occupational stress), and organizational (hospital safety climate) factors, as well as infection prevention behavior. We also aimed to test the mediating effect of infection prevention behavior in relation to multifaceted factors and the frequency of BBFE. Methods: This study was based on a secondary data analysis, using data of 246 nurses from the Shift Work Nurses' Health and Turnover study. Based on the characteristics of zero-inflated and over-dispersed count data of frequencies of BBFE, the data were analyzed to calculate zero-inflated negative binomial regression within a generalized linear model and to test the mediating effect using SPSS 25.0, Stata 14.1, and PROCESS macro. Results: We found that the frequency of BBFE increased in subjects with disturbed sleep (IRR = 1.87, p = .049), and the probability of non-BBFE increased in subjects showing higher infection prevention behavior (IRR = 15.05, p = .006) and a hospital safety climate (IRR = 28.46, p = .018). We also found that infection prevention behavior had mediating effects on the occupational stress-BBFE and hospital safety climate-BBFE relationships. Conclusion: Sleep disturbance is an important risk factor related to frequency of BBFE, whereas preventive factors are infection prevention behavior and hospital safety climate. We suggest individual and systemic efforts to improve sleep, occupational stress, and hospital safety climate to prevent BBFE occurrence.

Fuzzy Based Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) of Hydrogen Production Process Using the Thermococcus Onnurineus NA1 (퍼지기반 해양 미생물 이용 수소 제조 공정의 고장유형 및 영향분석)

  • PARK, SUNG HO;AHN, JUNKEON;KIM, SU HYUN;YOO, YOUNG DON;CHANG, DAEJUN;KANG, SUNGKYUN
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.307-316
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) of hydrogen production process by using the Thermococcus onnurineus NA1 was conducted and advanced methodology to compensate the weakness of previous FMEA methodology was applied. To bring out more quantitative and precise FMEA result for bio-hydrogen production process, fuzzy logic and potential loss cost estimated from ASPEN Capital Cost Estimator (ACCE) was introduced. Consequently, risk for releasing the flammable gases via internal leakage of steam tube which to control the operating temperature of main reactor was caution status in FMEA result without applying the fuzzification and ACCE. Moreover, probability of the steam tube plugging caused by solid property like medium was still caution status. As to apply the fuzzy logic and potential loss cost estimated from ACCE, a couple of caution status was unexpectedly upgraded to high dangerous status since the potential loss cost of steam tube for main reactor and decrease in product gases are higher than expected.

Searching a Navigation Path to Avoid Danger Area for Safe Driving (안전운전을 위해 위험지역을 회피하는 내비게이션 경로탐색)

  • Lee, Yong-Hu;Kim, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2013
  • The primary function of navigation system is to provide route search and road guidance for safe driving for drivers. However, the existing route search system provides a simple service that looks up the shortest route using a safe driving DB without considering different road characteristics for the safety of the drivers. In order to maintain the safe driving, rather than searching the shortest path, a navigation system, in which the danger areas and/or the dangerous time zones have been considered, is required. Therefore, in this paper we propose a strategy of searching a navigation path to avoid danger areas for safe driving by using the A* algorithm. In the strategy, when evaluating the path-specific fitness of the navigation nodes, different heuristic weights were assigned to different types of risk areas. In particular, we considered three kinds of danger areas, such as accident-prone sections where accidents occur frequently, school zones, and intersection regions, as well as the time slots when the probability of danger is high. From computer simulation, the results demonstrate that the proposed scheme can provide the way to avoid danger areas on the route searching and confirm the possibility of providing the actual service.

The review of safety against derailment on twisted track for Korean tilting train design (한국형 틸팅차량 설계의 비틀린 궤도상의 탈선안전도 검토)

  • Kim Nam-Po;Kim Jung-Seok;Park Tae-Won
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.299-307
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    • 2005
  • The 180 km/h Korean Tilting Train(TTX) which is now developing as a part of the Korean National R&D project, was elaborately designed. As the tilting trains run curve track with the $30\%$ higher speed than normal trains, the higher centrifugal and dynamic force are expected. Furthermore the complex tilting system increase the probability of failure. Therefore it is very important for tilting train to ensure safety against derailment under the various kind of failed condition in the middle of running as well as normal operating condition. The TTX train have the relatively high roll stiffness to improve the lateral ride comfort and to limit the roll displacement on the curve. But the higher roll stiffness increase the risk of derailment on the twisted track. This paper describes the study to review the safety against derailment caused by the wheel unloading on the severely twisted track. The worst combination of maximum cant change with maximum twist defect was established by numerical simulation. And also it was assumed that the air bag deflated and still the train run its speed limit. Those kind of assumption might be the worst case from the view point of wheel unloading derailment on the twisted track. The dynamic simulation was done by means of VAMPIRE S/W and non-linear transient analysis. We found that derailment quotients Q/P was only slightly influenced by track twist but the wheel unloading was greatly influenced. And we ascertained that the higher roll stiffness the higher wheel unloading. In case of air bag deflated situation, the wheel unloading reached up to $100\%$ which means the wheel lift or jumped. Therefore it was concluded that the design need to be improved to ensure the safety against derailment on the maximum twisted track in case of air bag deflated and tilting train's speed limit.

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Simulation of Effects of Swine Manure Application Rates on Nitrate Concentration in Runoff, Indiana, USA

  • Lim, Kyoung-Jae;Engel, Bernard A.;Jeon, Ji-Hong;Jones, Don;Sutton, Alan L.;Ok, Yang-Sik;Kim, Ki-Sung;Choi, Joong-Dae
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.38-46
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    • 2009
  • Livestock manure is an important source of nutrients for crop production. However, farmers typically do not know the exact nutrient values for livestock manure. In many instances, manure has been viewed as a waste, and as a result it is applied close to the source resulting in over application of nutrients. Thus, the goal of nutrient application has often been applied to reduce the application expense rather than to maximize crop income. This results in wasted money and potentially negative impacts on water quality. Several livestock manure management scenarios were created based on agronomic nutrient requirements using the Utilization of Animal Manure as a Plant Nutrient (AMANURE) software to investigate water quality impacts with the National Agricultural Pesticide Risk Analysis (NAPRA) WWW modeling system. Application of manure at agronomic rates can result in high nitrate-nitrogen losses for some soil types, especially when applied in late fall. The application of manure at an agronomic rate does not necessarily equate to adequate water quality protection, and farmers must take care applying manure at agronomic rates, because nitrate-nitrogen loss potential varies spatially and temporarily. Nutrient loss probability maps for Indiana at 5%, 10%, 25%, and 50% values were created to demonstrate potential water quality impacts when livestock manure is applied to cropland at agronomic rates. The NAPRA WWW system coupled with AMANURE can be used to identify site-specific livestock manure management plans that are environmentally sound and agronomically appropriate.

Linearity Verification of Measured Voltage Deterioration of High Voltage Cable based on Weibull Lifetime Index (와이불 수명지수에 의한 고전압 케이블의 전압열화 측정값의 선형성 확인)

  • Um, Kee-Hong;Lee, Kwan-Woo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.227-232
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    • 2016
  • As the demand for electric power increases, all devices operating in power stations and all devices adopted in order to deliver distant loads need to be operating in perfect condition at the level of reliability expected by consumers. In general, the lifetime of cables used in delivering high power is declared to be 30 years from the time of production. Deterioration (which is the worsening of electric properties) starts from the very moment of operation. In spite of the reduction in reliability caused by deterioration, the reality is that cables often operate at considerable risk of accidents because the reliability of operation has not been diagnosed. We have invented a device to diagnose the deterioration processes of high-voltage power cables. It has been installed and is currently operating at Korea Western Power Co., Ltd., located in Chungnam, Korea. In previously published papers we have shown graphs obtained by plotting insulation resistances versus time, through analyzing the data extracted from operating cables using the devices we have invented. In this paper, we verify that the previously plotted graphs agree with the life time index of Weibull distribution of probability.