• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Price

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A Study on the Risk Examination of the Unit Price of Public Housing Construction Projects (공공주택공사에서의 도급단가 리스크 규명에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Soon-Young;Han, Choong-Hee;Baek, Tae-Ryong;Kim, Kyoon-Tai;Lee, Jun-Bok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2010
  • Currently, the unit price of public construction projects are not being evaluated appropriately for several reasons. First, the evaluation of the unit price differ per nature of the bidding process and its estimation process. In fact, pricing is determined to meet the total price in turnkey projects and to pass the low bid price deliberation process in unit price projects, and thus, such prices cannot be said to be reasonable prices per public project. After the contract is awarded, however, the prices determined without taking into consideration the characteristic of each bidding process and price estimate process are used for the valuation of progress payment, design changes, and escalation. Furthermore, this is also being applied to other low bid deliberation process as actual public project unit price, thereby affecting other processes as well. In effect, this system increases the risks for both the owner and the bidder who have determined the unit price. This research examines the risk factor and its extent in order to properly manage it in preparation for the future.

The Volume and Price Relationship of the Oyster Market in Producing Area (굴 산지시장의 위판량과 가격관계)

  • 강석규
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2001
  • The research on the price-volume relation in the market is very important because it examines into regular phenomenon revealed by market participants including producers and middlemen. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between price and trading volume in the oyster producing market. In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, the contents of empirical analysis include the time series properties of price and trading volume, the short-term and long-term relationships between price and trading volume, and the determinants of trading volume. The data used in this study correspond to daily price and trading volume covering the time period from January 1998 to April 2001. The empirical results can be summarized as follows : First, price and trading volume follow random walks and they are integrated of order 1. The first difference is necessary for satisfying the stationary conditions. Second, price and trading volume are cointegrated. This long-run relationship is stronger from trading volume to price. Third, error correction model suggests that feedback effect exists in the long-run and that price tends to lead trading volume by about five days in the short run, that is, to be required period by digging, conveying, and peeling oystershell for selling oyster. Fourth, price and price volatility is a determinant of trading volume. In particular, trading volume is a negative function of price. It is believed that the conclusion drawn from this study would provide a useful standard for the policy makers in charge of reducing the oyster price volatility risk caused by trading volume(selling quantities).

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Inconsistency between Information Search and Purchase Channels: Focusing on the "Showrooming Phenomenon" (멀티채널 환경에서 정보탐색채널과 구매채널의 불일치 현상에 관한 연구: 쇼루밍 현상을 중심으로)

  • Yeom, Min-Sun
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.81-93
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - "Showrooming" refers to the phenomenon where a shopper visits a store to see and compare products but makes the purchase online at a lower price. Surveys on showrooming activities at home and abroad indicate that a significant number of consumers pursue showrooming activities. The advent of "showroomers," who engage in buying activities, hovering both on and offline, while selectively choosing sales channels to suit their needs, is powerful enough to erode the borders between channels and bring about seismic changes in the distribution industry. However, surprisingly, there has been no in-depth discussion on showrooming. This study seeks to theoretically investigate what impact personal characteristics have on showrooming preferences and attitudes in a multi-channel environment. Specifically, assumptions have been made that price perception, perceived performance risk, and trust in online shopping not only have a direct impact on showrooming attitudes but also indirectly affect it through the means of contact motivation. Research design, data, and methodology - To test the hypotheses, this study conducted a survey of male and female shoppers, ages 20 through 40s, who live in metropolitan areas, and have actively showroomed fashion items in the last six months. A clothing item usually purchased after a careful decision-making process was chosen as the target product of the study. The survey was conducted between October and November 2014, using a professional survey service provider. A total of 200 surveys were collected, of which 198 were used for analysis. Conceptual model Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Amos 18.0 were employed for data analysis and model verification. In addition, following the confirmatory factor analysis and measurement model analysis, the theoretical model that corresponds to the research model was analyzed. Results - Analysis results show that price perception, perceived performance risk, and trust in online shopping have a statistically significant and positive (+) impact on showrooming attitudes. In addition, in terms of the indirect influence of price perception and perceived performance risk on showrooming attitudes through means of contact motivation, price perception had a statistically significant and positive impact on means of contact motivation, whereas perceived performance risk did not have a statistically significant impact on it, with the relevant hypothesis rejected. Conclusions - These analysis results imply that the ultimate goal of consumers is to maximize their shopping benefits by selectively and strategically taking advantage of different channels in a complementary manner. This study presents many implications for distributors to encourage a deep understanding of showrooming consumers who have complicated consumption behaviors and to build channel integration strategies. This study has limitations in theoretical and practical implications. Therefore, subsequent studies need to focus on verifying that showrooming activities are based on reasonable and planned decisions by applying the theory of reasoned or planned behavior. In addition, the scope of the study should expand to include web showrooming, where consumers conduct product research online and purchase offline.

Reliability Analysis for Price Forecasting of Chinese Cabbage (신뢰성 해석기법을 이용한 배추 가격 예측 모형의 개발)

  • Suh, Kyo;Kim, Tae-Gon;Lee, Jeong-Jae
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2008
  • Generally the price of agricultural products has much different characteristics from that of manufacturing products. If products have the limitation of long-term storage and the short period of cultivation, the price of products can be more unstable. Moreover, the price forecasting is very difficult because it doesn't follow any cycle or trend. However price can be regarded as risk instead of uncertainty if we can calculate the probability of price. Reliability analysis techniques are used for forecasting the price change of Chinese cabbage. This study aims to show the usability of reliability analysis for price forecasting. A price-forecasting model was developed based on weather data of the first 10 days of the full cultivating cycle (80 days) 70 days and the average price and standard deviation of wholesale market prices from 1996 to 2001 and applied to forecast the boom price, or the orice which is over the tolerance of market prices, of upland Chinese cabbage in 2002 and 2003. Applied results showed the possibility of boom price forecasting using reliability analysis techniques.

Uncertainty Factors affecting Bid Price from Pre-bid Clarification Document of Transport Construction Projects

  • Jang, YeEun;Kim, HaYoung;Yi, June-Seong;Lee, Bum-Sik
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2022.06a
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    • pp.238-244
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    • 2022
  • Civil projects are associated with many uncertainties because they involve a long duration, many resources, a large area, and many supply chains. Therefore, the price of a civil project is not simply proportional to the quantity and unit price of the item but has a variable value, including uncertainty risk. This study investigates the influence of the uncertainty factors in the pre-bid clarification document on bid price formation during the project bidding phase. To this end, civil projects from the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) were used as research data. This study randomly selected fifty sample data from each of twelve counties from 2008-to 2020: six hundred. The authors observed that each project sample had 0 to n query cases due to uncertainty. Then, this study examined the project uncertainty cases and categorized them into the following four uncertainty factors: 'conflict' (UF1), 'impossibility' (UF2), 'lack' (UF3), and 'missing' (UF4). Under the extracting process, the cases are classified into four uncertainty factors. With the project not containing any uncertainty factors as a control group, the project containing these uncertainty factors was designated as an experimental group. After comparing the bidder's price, the experimental group's bid price was higher than the control group's. This result suggests that uncertainty factors in bid documents induce bidders to set a high bid price as a defense against uncertainty.

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An Effect of Volatility of Crude Oil Price on Asymmetry of Domestic Gasoline Price Adjustment (국제 유가 변동성이 국내 휘발유 가격 비대칭성에 미치는 영향)

  • Nam-Jae Kim;Hyung-Gun Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.351-364
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This study examines the effects of Dubai oil price and the volatility on the asymmetry of domestic gasoline price adjustment. Additionally, the study investigates the effects of "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - Firstly, the study calculates proxies for asymmetry and volatility of each window(every 3-month) by error-correction model and GARCH(1, 1) using daily domestic gas price and Dubai oil price from 2008/04/15 to 2022/12/31. Secondly, the study investigates the effects of the increasing rate of Dubai oil price, volatility, "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies on asymmetry. The autoregressive distributed lag regression model is employed for estimations. Findings - The study finds that changes in the increasing rate of Dubai oil price and both types of volatility of Dubai oil price increase asymmetry. While "Altteul" gas-station and tax-cut policies decrease asymmetry. Additionally, the study fails to find that asymmetry in the Korean gasoline market in the estimation with total observations. Research implications or Originality - An increase in Dubai oil price volatility means an increase in cost uncertainty for gas-station owners. Since cost uncertainty is a kind of financial risk, the increase in volatility reinforces the asymmetry. The study provides supporting evidence for the idea.

THE PRICING OF VULNERABLE POWER OPTIONS WITH DOUBLE MELLIN TRANSFORMS

  • HA, MIJIN;LI, QI;KIM, DONGHYUN;YOON, JI-HUN
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.39 no.5_6
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    • pp.677-688
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    • 2021
  • In the modern financial market, the scale of financial instrument transactions in the over-the-counter (OTC) market are increasing. However, in this market, there exists a counterparty credit risk. Herein, we obtain a closed-form solution of power option with credit risks, using the double Mellin transforms. We also use a numerical method to compare the differentiations of option price between the closed-form solution and Monte-Carlo simulation. The result shows that the closed-form solution is precise. In addition, the option's price is sensitive to the exponent of the maturity stock price.

Does Hedging with Derivatives Affect Future Crash Risk?

  • PARK, Hyun-Young;PARK, Soo Yeon
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2020
  • The study aims to investigate the relationship between hedging with derivatives and subsequent firm-level stock price crash risk. Our sample consists of KOSPI- and KOSDAQ-listed companies from 2004 to 2014. The total firm-year observation is 4,886. We find that hedging with derivatives is related to greater possibilities of crash risk. The results suggest that the complexity of economic and financial reporting for derivatives may aggravate the company's information opacity, ultimately increasing the crash risk. We contribute to the growing body of literature on hedging with derivatives. Academics and practitioners have debated on whether or not hedging enhances transparency or rather makes the information environment more opaque. Theoretical research on the role of corporate hedging on information environment shows that hedging enhances earnings informativeness. Meanwhile, pieces of anecdotal and empirical evidence show that the economic and financial reporting complexity of derivatives can harm information transparency. Our results shed light on the question of whether and how hedging with derivatives affects information environment by examining the relationship between hedging with derivatives and crash risk. Furthermore, our findings provide useful insights for policymakers and practitioners. Specifically, our results raise a need for a more transparent disclosure on corporate hedging activities with derivatives.

A Study on the Efficiency and Information for Future Market of Japan's Frozen Shrimp (일본 냉동새우 선물시장의 효율성과 정보흐름에 관한 연구)

  • Rhee, Byung-Kun;Jeon, Hye-Min;Kim, Ki-Soo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.51-74
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to ascertain that how the futures market of the Japanese frozen shrimp that is the only fisheries asset all over the world can be efficient. Accordingly, this paper examines efficiency and information flow of the Japanese frozen shrimp market using data from Kansai Commodities Exchange frozen shrimp futures closing prices and spot prices. And then this paper estimates a forward price model using that data. From the model, risk premium is estimated and we could also analyse the future information flow into the futures market which reveals future spot prices. This thesis reached to conclusions as follows: First, the null of zero risk premium is rejected and the value of that is negative. Second, the time pattern of information flow into the futures market is that most of the information on future price arrives within a week and for the last week, most of relevant information is already incorporated. The result of this study contrasts with that of Stockman(1978) about currency futures market of U.S.

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Factors Affecting Consumer's Choice of Retail Store Chain: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • BUI, Thu Thi;NGUYEN, Huong Thi;KHUC, Long Dai
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.571-580
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    • 2021
  • The study explores the factors affecting the brand selection behavior of retail chains in Vietnam and to what extent they have an impact on the customer's choice intention. This research employs a combination of both qualitative and quantitative mixed methods with the help of SPSS version 22.0 in data analysis. Expert interviews are used to design the questionnaire for the survey conducted on 700 consumers. Research results show that the eight factors of store image (1-to-3 split factor of store image including the display of goods and services), price perception, risk perception, brand attitude, brand awareness, and brand familiarity were determined. They all influence the intention to choose the retail chain brand. With a positive β coefficient, the more store image, price perception, brand attitude, and brand awareness are enhanced, the more likely the intention to choose the retail chain brand. The factor of risk perception has negative ��, resulting in an inverse impact on choosing a retail chain brand name. Price perception and risk perception have the strongest impact on retail chain decision behavior while commodity display factors the least. Based on these important results, the study proposes implications for retailers and manufacturers.