• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Modeling

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Comparison of Analysis Model on Soil Disaster According to Soil Characteristics (지반특성에 따른 토사재해 해석 모델 비교)

  • Choi, Wonil;Baek, Seungcheol
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzed the ground characteristics region by designating 3 research areas, Anrim-dong in Chungju City, Busa-dong in Daejeon Metropolitan City and Sinan-dong in Andong City out of the areas subject to concentrated management to prepare for sediment disaster in downtown areas. The correlation between ground characteristics were observed by using characteristics (crown density, root cohesion, rainfall characteristics, soil characteristics) and the risk areas were predicted through sediment disaster prediction modeling. Landslide MAPping (LSMAP), Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) and Landslide Hazard MAP (LHMAP) were used for the comparative analysis of the hazard prediction model for sediment disaster. As a result of predicting the sediment disaster danger, in case of SINMAP which was generally used, excessive range was predicted as a hazardous area and in case of the Korea Forest Service's landslide hazard map (LHMAP), the smallest prediction area was assessed. LSMAP predicted a medium range of SINMAP and LHMAP as hazardous area. The difference of the prediction results is that the analysis parameters of LSMAP is more diverse and engineering than two comparative models, and it is found that more precise prediction is possible.

An Effect of Concreteness and Fairness of Service Contract on Performance of Service Provider in Logistics Outsourcing (물류계약 조항의 구체성과 공정성이 물류기업의 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Jin-Su;Song, Sang-Hwa
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.129-153
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    • 2012
  • Even though logistics service outsourcing becomes widespread in manufacturing and service industries, logistics service providers encounter fierce competition and lower profit. Decreased profit has negative impact on service providers' competitiveness, which in turn threats successful relationship with shippers. In this paper, we investigate the factors which influence the performance of service providers. Factors related to service contract are examined and we test an effect of concreteness and fairness of service contract. PLS (Partial Least Square) modeling method is applied and validated using data from logistics service providing companies in Korea. In the model, service contract clauses are classified into two categories including cost and risk sharing terms. PLS analysis shows that partnership and performance of service relationship is improved when contract clauses are specified in detail. This study will contribute in providing an operational direction in effectively establishing a positive relationship between the logistics service provider and the shipper.

A Study on Architecture of Test Program based UML (UML 기반 점검 프로그램 설계 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, ByoungYong;Jang, JungSu;Ban, ChangBong;Lee, HyoJong;Yang, SeungYul
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.49 no.10
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    • pp.217-230
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    • 2012
  • This paper propose interacting test programming methods between test equipment and hardware unit to verify function and performance of the hardware unit under test. Proposed test program can minimizes the risk of failures when the unit is mounted on the aircraft by testing and verifying the unit under the worst stress condition. Also, Object oriented design using UML make it easy to apply in other equipments. Test program consists of architecture package and hardware package. Architecture package is in a role for system management, log analysis, message receiving and message analysis. Messages that are used by system management define messages for testing and defined messages is sent and received to test equipment through Ethernet. Hardware package is in a role for hardware management that is needed to be tested and is related to a system. Hardware to be tested is divided into internal test and transmission test. Internal test inspects hardware itself and reports the test results to the test equipment. Transmission test inspects communication device by sending or receiving data. All kinds of test is done in the worst condition of the test unit executing in parallel. Each device is tested at least 482 times and at most 15,003 times about one hour. Test program is utilized in hardware reliability test like as environmental test or EMI test.

A Study on Validation for Mapping of Gas Detectors at a BTX Plant (BTX 공정에서 Gas Detector Mapping 적정성 검토에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Ji Hye;Han, Man Hyoeng;Kim, Il Kwon;Chon, Young Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.168-178
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    • 2017
  • In order to prevent major and chemical accidents, some of the plants which would like to install and operate hazard chemicals handling facilities must submit Off-site Consequence Analysis due to recent arisen leak accidents since 2015. A lot of chemical industrials choose gas detectors as mitigation equipment to early detect gas vapor. The way of placement of gas detectors has two methods; Code-based Design(CBD) and Performance-based Design. The CBD has principles for gas detectors to be installed with consideration for the place that is expected to accumulate gas, and the leak locations according to legal standards and technical guidelines, and has a possibility to be unable to detect by these rules to locate gas detectors by vapor density information. The PBD has two methods; a Geographic Method and Scenario based Method. The Scenario-based Method has been suggested to make up for the Geographic Coverage Method. This Scenario-based Method draw the best optimum placement of gas detectors by considering leak locations, leak speed information, leak directions and etc. However, the domestic placement guidelines just refers to the CBD. Therefore, this study is to compare existing placement location of gas detectors by the domestic CBD with placement locations, coverages and the number of gas detectors in accordance with the Scenario-based Method. Also this study has measures for early detecting interest of Vapor Cloud and suitable placement of gas detectors to prevent chemical accidents. The Phast software was selected to simulate vapor cloud dispersion to predict the consequence. There are two cases; an accident hole size of leak(8 mm) from API which is the highst accident hole size less than 24.5 mm, and a normal leak hole size from KOSHA Guide (1.8 mm). Detect3D was also selected to locate gas detectors efficiently and compare CBD results and PBD results. Currently, domestic methods of gas detectors do not consider any risk, but just depend on domestic code methods which lead to placement of gas detectors not to make personnels recognize tolerable or intolerable risks. The results of the Scenario-based Method, however, analyze the leak estimated range by simulating leak dispersion, and then it is able to tell tolerable risks. Thus it is considered that individuals will be able to place gas detectors reasonably by making objectives and roles flexibly according to situations in a specific plant.

Blood Malignancies in Mazandaran Province of Iran

  • Tahmasby, Bahram;Marnani, Ahmad Barati;Maleki, Mohammadreza;Barouni, Mohsen;Mousavi, Seyyed Hamid;Naseriyan, Behjat;Nazarnezhad, Mirzaali;Alizadeh, Ali;Sabermahani, Asma
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.1053-1056
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    • 2013
  • Background: Leukemia and lymphoma demonstrate significantly incidence rates throughout the world and particularly in Iran they cause serious mortality and diagnosis and treatment expenditures for both families and the health system. Combined they account for about 11 percent of cancers in Mazandaran province, ranking number 2 in prevalent cancers. The purpose of this study was to provide a first general and specific description of leukemia and lymphoma in Mazandaran province. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive retrospective study, entire patient's data were reviewed which had confirmed diagnosis of leukemia and lymphoma with valid laboratory or pathology reports in the period 2001-2008. The data were collected by Babol health research site related to Tehran University of Medical Science. Incidence rates based on age groups, gender, city of residence and type of malignancy were calculated and analyzed. Results: In Mazandaran province, 1,146 cases of leukemia and lymphoma were encountered, 5.9 in 100,000 persons on average annually. The highest incidence rates were obtained at age of 70 or above (26.4) and the lowest at age of 0-9 (2.3).The incidence rates in males and females were 7.1 and 4.8 respectively with a ratio of 1.5. The highest incidence rate was in Babol (7.3) and the lowest was calculated in Neka and Tonekabon equally (1.5). According to the type of malignancy, non Hodgkin lymphoma, with 2.5/100,000 have the most incidence rate and myeloid leukemia with 1.8 had the lowest. Conclusions: The obtained findings indicate clear differences in incidence rates based on age, gender, residence, and type of malignancy. Therefore it's suggested that in addition to promote data collecting programs, research projects should be programmed to define leukemia and lymphoma risk factors in this province.

Analysis of large-scale flood inundation area using optimal topographic factors (지형학적 인자를 이용한 광역 홍수범람 위험지역 분석)

  • Lee, Kyoungsang;Lee, Daeeop;Jung, Sungho;Lee, Giha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.6
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    • pp.481-490
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the spatiotemporal patterns of flood disasters have become more complex and unpredictable due to climate change. Flood hazard map including information on flood risk level has been widely used as an unstructured measure against flooding damages. In order to product a high-precision flood hazard map by combination of hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, huge digital information such as topography, geology, climate, landuse and various database related to social economic are required. However, in some areas, especially in developing countries, flood hazard mapping is difficult or impossible and its accuracy is insufficient because such data is lacking or inaccessible. Therefore, this study suggests a method to delineate large scale flood-prone area based on topographic factors produced by linear binary classifier and ROC (Receiver Operation Characteristics) using globally-available geographic data such as ASTER or SRTM. We applied the proposed methodology to five different countries: North Korea Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand and Myanmar. The results show that model performances on flood area detection ranges from 38% (Bangladesh) to 78% (Thailand). The flood-prone area detection based on the topographical factors has a great advantage in order to easily distinguish the large-scale inundation-potent area using only digital elevation model (DEM) for ungauged watersheds.

Effects of External Environment of Franchisor on Corporate Performance -Focused on Entrepreneurship, Market Orientation and Organizational Structure- (프랜차이즈 본사의 외부환경이 경영성과에 미치는 영향 -앙트러프러너십, 시장지향성, 및 조직구조의 매개변수를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Tae-Yong;Yoo, Young-Jin
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.351-367
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    • 2011
  • Few previous researches have been studied in terms of franchisees' perceptions of franchisors' entrepreneurial activities within the boundary of restaurant franchising industry settings. The sampling frame for this study included 605 restaurant franchisees in the business-format franchising system in Korea and data were collected from 1 October 2009 to 28 February 2010. This study, from franchisees' views, investigated the relationship among franchisors' entrepreneurship, external environment, organizational structure(mechanistic-organic) and managerial performance, with structural equation modeling(SEM). The research findings were, firstly, external environment positively affected entrepreneurship which positively affected market orientation and managerial performance, and secondly, market orientation made franchisors select organic structure and heighten managerial performance. Also, external environment led franchisors to adopt organic structure and aggravated their managerial performance. The implications of these findings were as follows. Firstly, the more franchiors had initiatives, innovatedness and risk-taking attitudes, the higher they had managerial performances and market orientation. Secondly, franchisors should keep and heighten market share with keeping in mind with customer orientation, competition orientation, harmony between departments, long-term orientation and profitability. Thirdly, continuous and cautious environmental scanning was necessary because external restaurant environment made organizational structure being changed and managerial performance being aggravated.

A Comparison of the Independent Verification Methods for the Results of Leksell GammaPlan for Gamma Knife Predecessor with the Hemispherical Collimators (반구형 시준기를 가진 감마나이프에 대한 렉셀감마플랜 결과물의 독립적인 검증방법들의 비교)

  • Hur, Beong Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.10 no.7
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    • pp.521-529
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    • 2016
  • Since Gamma Knife(R) radiosurgery(GKRS) is based on a single-fraction high dose treatment strategy, independent verification for the results of Leksell GammaPlan(R) (LGP) is an important procedure in assuring patient safety and minimizing the risk of treatment errors. Several verification methods have been developed and reported previously. Thus these methods were tested statistically and tried on Leksell Gamma Knife(LGK) target treatments through the embodiment of the previously proposed algorithms(PPA). The purpose of this study was to apply and evaluate the accuracy of verification methods for LGK target treatments using PPA. In the study 10 patients with intracranial lesion treated by GKRS were included. We compared the data from PPA and LGP in terms of maximum dose, arbitrary point dose, and treatment time at the isocenter locations. All data were analyzed by Paired t-test, which is statistical method used to compare two different measurement techniques. No statistical significance in maximal dose at 10 cases was observed between PPA and LGP. Differences in average maximal dose ranged from -0.53 Gy to 3.71 Gy. The arbitrary point dose calculated by PPA and LGP was not statistically significant too. But we found out the statistical difference with p=0.021 between TMR and LGP for treatment time at the isocenter locations. PPA can be incorporated as part of a routine quality assurance(QA) procedure to minimize the chance of a wrong overdose. Statistical analyses demonstrated that PPA was in excellent agreement with LGP when considering the maximal dose and the arbitrary point dose for the best plan of GKRS. Due to the easy applicability we hope PPA can be widely used.

Development of Torpedo Target Detection Section Interface Simulation System based on DEVS Integrated Development Environment (DEVS 통합개발환경 기반 모의 어뢰 표적탐지부 연동장비 개발)

  • Lee, Min Kyu;Hwang, Kun Chul;Lee, Dong Hoon;Nah, Young In;Kim, Woo Shik
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2015
  • It is necessary for us to undergo trial and error for eliciting the rational requirement of the acquisition of weapon systems, but the M&S is general approach due to costs and risk of the development. In addition to the acquisition of weapon systems, M&S is extensively employed in the analysis and the training of developed weapon systems. The ADD (Agency for Defense Development) has developed DEVS integrated development environment (QUEST) that provides M&S general ground technique composed of simulation model implementation services, simulation result analysis services, and simulation interface services. This paper describes the interface architecture and the implementation of torpedo target detection section interface simulation system using QUEST. The torpedo target detection section interface simulation system is composed of torpedo target detection section which calculates a result of target detection and the QUEST scenario generator which provides simulation scenario for performance test of the torpedo target detection section. The interface architecture of torpedo target detection section interface simulation system is designed to verify the interface and performance of the torpedo target detection section by linking with the QUEST scenario generator.

Forming Shop Analysis with Adaptive Systems Approach (적응시스템 접근법을 이용한 조선소 가공공장 분석)

  • Dong-Hun Shin;Jong-Hun Woo;Jang-Hyun Lee;Jong-Gye Shin
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.75-80
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    • 2002
  • In these days of severe struggle for existence, the world has changed a great deal to global and digital oriented period. The enterprises try to introduce new management and production system to adapt such a change. But, if the only new technologies are applied to an enterprise without definite analysis about manufacturing, failure fellows as a logical consequence. Hence, enterprise must analyze manufacturing system definitely and needs new methodologies to mitigate risk. This study suggests that the new approach, which is systems approach for process improvement, is organized to systems analysis, systems diagnosis, and systems verification. Systems analysis analyzes manufacturing systems with object-oriented methodology-UML(Unified Modeling language) from a point of product, process, and resource view. Systems diagnosis identifies the constraints to optimize the system through scientific management or TOC(Theory of constraints). Systems verification shows the solution with virtual manufacturing technique applied to the core problem which emerged from systems diagnosis. This research shows the artifacts to improve the productivity with the above methodology applied to forming shop. UML provides the definite tool for analysis and re-usability to adapt itself to environment easily. The logical tree of TOC represents logical tool to optimize the forming shop. Discrete event simulator-QUEST suggests the tool for making a decision to verify the optimized forming shop.