• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Modeling

Search Result 777, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Participation of the Women Covered by Family Physicians in Breast Cancer Screening Program in Kerman, Iran

  • Jafari, Mohammad;Nakhaee, Nouzar;Goudarzi, Reza;Zehtab, Nooshin;Barouni, Mohsen
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.11
    • /
    • pp.4555-4561
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: Mammography screening is a method for reducing breast cancer mortality in women over 40 years old. A participation rate of at least 70% is a prerequisite for screening programs. This study aimed at determining the participation rate of women in breast cancer screening in Iran. Materials and Methods: The study population in this prospective research consisted of 35 to 69 years old women in the villages and towns Kerman District, in 2013. The data were collected by a well-validated risk assessment questionnaire. The questionnaires were completed with the help of health workers and technicians in the health centers, who were trained on breast cancer screening program. Results: As a whole, 19,651 women were invited to complete the questionnaire, of whom 15,794 women (80.37%) completed it. In the urban region, of 3150 eligible women 2728 women (86.60%) participated in the study. The acceptance rates for mammography in rural and urban regions were 34.95% and 8.75%, respectively. Conclusions: Finally, 3.8% and 16.34% of 35 to 69 years old women in the urban regions were mammographed, respectively. Conclusion: The low participation of eligible women in breast cancer screening program alerts us against including the program in the health insurance package.

The Impact of Trust in Mobile Instant Messenger and Platform on Mobile Contents Purchase Intention: Focusing on Kakao Platform and KakaoTalk Emoticon (모바일 인스턴트 메신저 및 플랫폼 신뢰도가 모바일 콘텐츠 구매의도에 미치는 영향: 카카오플랫폼과 카카오톡 이모티콘을 중심으로)

  • Jung, Bohee;Kim, Hanku
    • The Journal of Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.131-152
    • /
    • 2016
  • Purpose Mobile phones increase the frequency and speed of communication. The most popular mobile application in Korea is KakaoTalk, one of the mobile instant messenger(MIM) services. Although studying mobile services such as SMS, SNS and SNG suggests drawing upon theories in marketing, consumer behavior, psychology to investigate their personal use, research on MIM is scarce. We designed this paper to fill this gap. More specifically, this study is focused on the relationships among consumers psychological variables related to purchase intention to emoticons in context of MIM. Design/methodology/approach Data was obtained from 310 KakaoTalk users in Korea via questionnaire. The data was analyzed by structural equation modeling in order to verify the relationship between variables in the model. Specifically, this study is designed to examine the structural relationships among perceived benefits, perceived risks, trust in messenger service, system quality, trust in platform, and emoticons purchase intention. Findings The findings of this study are as follow. First, perceived benefits and perceived risks had a significant impact on trust in MIM service(e.g. KakaoTalk). Specifically, while perceived benefits had a positive effect on trust in MIM service, perceived risks had a negative effect on trust in MIM service. Second, trust in messenger service also had a positive impact on system quality. Third, trust in messenger service and system quality had a positive effect on trust in platform(e.g. Kakao platform) directly. Lastly, trust in platform had a positive influence on emoticons purchase intention in KakaoTalk messenger.

A Study on Relationships between Travel Time and Provision of Road Inundation Information in Heavy Rain and Snow using an Agent-based Simulation Model (폭우.폭설 시 침수 정보 전달과 통행시간 관계 연구 -에이전트 기반 모델을 활용하여-)

  • Na, Yu-Gyung;Lee, Seungho;Joh, Chang-Hyeon
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.262-274
    • /
    • 2013
  • Heavy rain and heavy snow as representative extreme weather are recently an issue in urban area. The paper aims at modeling the scenarios of evacuation that minimizes economic loss of the designated urban area with improving travel efficiency by providing road closure information facing an extremely heavy rainfall. The paper develops a model by using a NetLogo toolkit applied to the study area of Seocho-dong, Seocho-gu, Seoul. The model conducts a simulation of travel time under different scenarios of information provision. The simulation results show that it is efficient to provide the information of road closure to 20~40% of the drivers under the scenario of humid road or rainfall less than 20mm, whereas to 40~60% of the drivers under the scenario of heavy rainfall more than 20mm.

  • PDF

Estimation of Survival Rates in Patients with Lung Cancer in West Azerbaijan, the Northwest of Iran

  • Abazari, Malek;Gholamnejad, Mahdia;Roshanaei, Ghodratollah;Abazari, Reza;Roosta, Yousef;Mahjub, Hossein
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.9
    • /
    • pp.3923-3926
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: Lung cancer is a fatal malignancy with high mortality and short survival time. The aim of this study was to estimate survival rates of Iranian patients with lung cancer and its associate predictive factors. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on 355 patients admitted to hospitals of West Azerbaijan in the year 2007. The patients were followed up by phone calls until the end of June 2014. The survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test for comparison. The Cox's proportional hazard model was used to investigate the effect of various variables on patient survival time, including age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance, smoking status, tumor type, tumor stage, treatment, metastasis, and blood hemoglobin concentration. Results: Of the 355 patients under study, 240 died and 115 were censored. The mean and median survival time of patients was 13 and 4.8 months, respectively. According to the results of Kaplan-Meier method, 1, 2, and 3 years survival rates were 39%, 18%, and 0.07%, respectively. Based on Cox regression analysis, the risk of death was associated with ECOG group V (1.83, 95% CI: 1 Conclusions: The survival time of the patients with lung cancer is very short. While early diagnosis may improve the life expectancy effective treatment is not available.

Cervical Cancer Mortality Trends in China, 1991-2013, and Predictions for the Future

  • Du, Pei-Ling;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Fang, Jia-Ying;Zeng, Yang;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Tang, Wen-Rui;Xu, Xiao-Ling;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.16 no.15
    • /
    • pp.6391-6396
    • /
    • 2015
  • Background: To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. Results: In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).

Extending Application of the 'Hardcore' Definition to Smokeless Tobacco Use: Estimates from a Nationally Representative Population in India and its Implications

  • Jena, Pratap Kumar;Bandyopadhyay, Chandan;Mathur, Manu Raj;Das, Sagarika
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.13 no.12
    • /
    • pp.5959-5963
    • /
    • 2012
  • Background: The term 'hardcore' has been applied to use of smoking tobacco and generally referred to as the inability or unwillingness of regular smokers to quit. The component constructs of hardcore except nicotine dependence are product neutral. With the use of 'time to first chew' as a measure of nicotine dependence, hardcore definition can be extended to characterize smokeless tobacco users. Hardcore users respond less to tobacco cessation interventions, and are prone to tobacco induced diseases including cancer. Thus identifying hardcore users would help in estimate the burden of high risk population for tobacco induced diseases. Smokeless tobacco use is predominant and accounts for more than 50% of oral cancer in India. Hence, hardcore chewing information could be used for planning of tobacco and cancer control interventions. The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and associated factors of hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India. Materials and Methods: Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS)-India 2010 data were analyzed to quantify hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India with following five criteria: (1) current daily smokeless tobacco use; (2) no quit attempt in the past 12 months of survey or last quit attempt of less than 24 hours duration; (3) no intention to quit in next 12 months or not interested in quitting; (4) time to first use of smokeless tobacco product within 30 minutes of waking up; and (5) knowledge of smokeless tobacco hazards. Results: The number of hardcore smokeless tobacco users among adult Indians is estimated to be 5% (39.5 million). This group comprises 23.2% of daily smokeless tobacco users. The population prevalence varied from 1.4-9.1% across different national regions of India. Logistic regression modeling indicated age, education and employment status to be the major predictors of hardcore smokeless tobacco use in India. Conclusions: The presence of a huge number (39.5 million) of hardcore smokeless tobacco users is a challenge to tobacco control and cancer prevention in India. There is an unmet need for a universal tobacco cessation programme and intensification of anti-tobacco education in communities.

Simulation of Effects of Swine Manure Application Rates on Nitrate Concentration in Runoff, Indiana, USA

  • Lim, Kyoung-Jae;Engel, Bernard A.;Jeon, Ji-Hong;Jones, Don;Sutton, Alan L.;Ok, Yang-Sik;Kim, Ki-Sung;Choi, Joong-Dae
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
    • /
    • v.28 no.1
    • /
    • pp.38-46
    • /
    • 2009
  • Livestock manure is an important source of nutrients for crop production. However, farmers typically do not know the exact nutrient values for livestock manure. In many instances, manure has been viewed as a waste, and as a result it is applied close to the source resulting in over application of nutrients. Thus, the goal of nutrient application has often been applied to reduce the application expense rather than to maximize crop income. This results in wasted money and potentially negative impacts on water quality. Several livestock manure management scenarios were created based on agronomic nutrient requirements using the Utilization of Animal Manure as a Plant Nutrient (AMANURE) software to investigate water quality impacts with the National Agricultural Pesticide Risk Analysis (NAPRA) WWW modeling system. Application of manure at agronomic rates can result in high nitrate-nitrogen losses for some soil types, especially when applied in late fall. The application of manure at an agronomic rate does not necessarily equate to adequate water quality protection, and farmers must take care applying manure at agronomic rates, because nitrate-nitrogen loss potential varies spatially and temporarily. Nutrient loss probability maps for Indiana at 5%, 10%, 25%, and 50% values were created to demonstrate potential water quality impacts when livestock manure is applied to cropland at agronomic rates. The NAPRA WWW system coupled with AMANURE can be used to identify site-specific livestock manure management plans that are environmentally sound and agronomically appropriate.

Predictors Affecting Breast Self-Examination Practice among Turkish Women

  • Doganer, Yusuf C.;Aydogan, Umit;Kilbas, Zafer;Rohrer, James E.;Sari, Oktay;Usterme, Necibe;Yuksel, Servet;Akbulut, Halil;Balkan, Salih M.;Saglam, Kenan;Tufan, Turgut
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.15 no.20
    • /
    • pp.9021-9025
    • /
    • 2014
  • Background: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among females in Turkey. Predictors affecting the breast self-examination (BSE) performance vary in developing countries. Objective: To determine the frequency of BSE performance and predictors of self-reported BSEs among women in the capital city of Turkey. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 376 Turkish women using a self-administered questionnaire covering socio-demographic variables and BSE-related features. Results: Of the participants, 78.7% (N=296) reported practicing BSE, whereas 9.5% (N=28) were implementing BSE regularly on a monthly basis, and only 5.7% (N=17) were performing BSE regularly within a week after each menstrual cycle. Multivariate logistic regression modeling revealed that BSE performance was more likely in younger age groups [20-39 years] (p=0.018, OR=3.215) and [40-49 years] (p=0.009, OR=3.162), women having a family history of breast disease (p=0.038, OR=2.028), and housewives (p=0.013, OR=0.353). Conclusions: Although it appears that the rates of BSE performers are high, the number of women conducting appropriate BSE on a regular time interval basis is lower than expected. Younger age groups, family history of breast diseases and not being employed were identified as significant predictors of practicing BSE appropriately. Older age and employment were risk factors for not performing BSE in this sample.

Auto-parametric resonance of framed structures under periodic excitations

  • Li, Yuchun;Gou, Hongliang;Zhang, Long;Chang, Chenyu
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.61 no.4
    • /
    • pp.497-510
    • /
    • 2017
  • A framed structure may be composed of two sub-structures, which are linked by a hinged joint. One sub-structure is the primary system and the other is the secondary system. The primary system, which is subjected to the periodic external load, can give rise to an auto-parametric resonance of the second system. Considering the geometric-stiffness effect produced by the axially internal force, the element equation of motion is derived by the extended Hamilton's principle. The element equations are then assembled into the global non-homogeneous Mathieu-Hill equations. The Newmark's method is introduced to solve the time-history responses of the non-homogeneous Mathieu-Hill equations. The energy-growth exponent/coefficient (EGE/EGC) and a finite-time Lyapunov exponent (FLE) are proposed for determining the auto-parametric instability boundaries of the structural system. The auto-parametric instabilities are numerically analyzed for the two frames. The influence of relative stiffness between the primary and secondary systems on the auto-parametric instability boundaries is investigated. A phenomenon of the "auto-parametric internal resonance" (the auto-parametric resonance of the second system induced by a normal resonance of the primary system) is predicted through the two numerical examples. The risk of auto-parametric internal resonance is emphasized. An auto-parametric resonance experiment of a ${\Gamma}$-shaped frame is conducted for verifying the theoretical predictions and present calculation method.

Markov's Modeling for Screening Strategies for Colorectal Cancer

  • Barouni, Mohsen;Larizadeh, Mohammad Hassan;Sabermahani, Asma;Ghaderi, Hossien
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.13 no.10
    • /
    • pp.5125-5129
    • /
    • 2012
  • Economic decision models are being increasingly used to assess medical interventions. Advances in this field are mainly due to enhanced processing capacity of computers, availability of specific software to perform the necessary tasks, and refined mathematical techniques. We here estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of ten strategies for colon cancer screening, as well as no screening, incorporating quality of life, noncompliance and data on the costs and profit of chemotherapy in Iran. We used a Markov model to measure the costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy of a 50-year-old average-risk Iranian without screening and with screening by each test. In this paper, we tested the model with data from the Ministry of Health and published literature. We considered costs from the perspective of a health insurance organization, with inflation to 2011, the Iranian Rial being converted into US dollars. We focused on three tests for the 10 strategies considered currently being used for population screening in some Iranians provinces (Kerman, Golestan Mazandaran, Ardabil, and Tehran): low-sensitivity guaiac fecal occult blood test, performed annually; fecal immunochemical test, performed annually; and colonoscopy, performed every 10 years. These strategies reduced the incidence of colorectal cancer by 39%, 60% and 76%, and mortality by 50%, 69% and 78%, respectively, compared with no screening. These approaches generated ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios) of $9067, $654 and $8700 per QALY (quality-adjusted life year), respectively. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the influence of various scales on the economic evaluation of screening. The results were sensitive to probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Colonoscopy every ten years yielded the greatest net health value. Screening for colon cancer is economical and cost-effective over conventional levels of WTP8.