• 임상간호연구
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.357-368
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• 2013

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate risk factors related to delirium and to develop screening model on delirium occurrence in MICU (Medical Intensive Care Unit) patients. Methods: For developing a preliminary tool for delirium, the data of 166 patients were collected and analyzed. In order to estimate the accuracy and discriminating power for the developed screening model, 98 patients were enrolled. The data used in this study were collected by EMR (Electronic Medical Record) review from January to September in 2012. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS/PC Win 18.0 program. Results: Screening model on delirium in MICU patients was developed using the results of logistic regression. The total score of screening model was 24 point and measuring point was 10 point. When the measuring point is over 10 point, it means that the risk of delirium occurrence is high. The discriminating power and the validity of screening model showed AUC .908 (p <.001) and .935 (p <.001) respectively. This result showed that the screening model on delirium which developed in this study was an appropriate model for screening the delirium risk group in MICU. The sensitivity of the screening model was 83%, specificity 89% and accuracy 84%. Conclusion: The developed screening model on delirium occurrence in MICU should be combined with EMR for screening and preventing delirium in a high risk group.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제26권6호
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• pp.557-573
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• 2019

Mortality study is an essential component of actuarial risk management for life insurance policies, annuities, and pension plans. Life expectancy has drastically increased over the last several decades; consequently, longevity risk associated with annuity products and pension systems has emerged as a crucial issue. Among the various aspects of mortality study, a consideration of the cause-of-death mortality can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the nature of mortality/longevity risk. In this case study, the cause-of-mortality data in Korea and the US were analyzed along with a multinomial logistic regression model that was constructed to quantify the impact of mortality reduction in a specific cause on actuarial values. The results of analyses imply that mortality improvement due to a specific cause should be carefully monitored and reflected in mortality/longevity risk management. It was also confirmed that multinomial logistic regression model is a useful tool for analyzing cause-of-death mortality for actuarial applications.

• 한국자동차공학회논문집
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.130-135
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• 2013

Until now, passenger airbag design is based on the referred car design and many repetitive crash tests have been done to meet the crash performance. In this paper, it was suggested a new design process of passenger airbag. First, key performance factors were determined by analyzing the injury risk effectiveness of each performance factor. And it was made a relationship between injury risk and performance factor by using the response surface model. By using this one, it can be predicted the injury risk of head and neck. Predicted injury risk of optimal design was obtained through this injury risk prediction model and it was verified by FE analysis result within 18% error of head and 9% error of neck. It was shown that a target crash performance can be met by controlling the key performance factors only.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.121-126
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• 2007

Evaluation of collision risk plays a key role in developing the expert system of navigation and collision avoidance. This paper presents a new collision risk model formula that is one modification model on the basis of one approach to the evaluation of collision risk using sech function produced in earlier studies. And as a tool of the evaluation field of ship collision, this paper applied the new model in appraising the collision risk and represented how to decide the safe range of own ship's action. Moreover this paper also analyzed theoretically how to determine the coefficients as described in the new modification model, and suggested the appropriate values as applicable.

• 식물병연구
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.67-73
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• 2015

P. syringae pv. syringae에 의해 발생하는 참다래 꽃썩음병은 개화기 전후의 기상조건에 영향을 크게 받는다. 지금까지 기상조건과 꽃썩음병 발생의 상관관계를 밝힌 연구들은 많았지만, 이를 활용해 꽃썩음병의 감염 위험도를 나타낼 수 있는 예측모형은 개발되지 않았다. 본 연구에서는 기존 정보를 조사하고 꽃썩음병의 병원생태와 유사한 화상병 예측모형인 Maryblyt모형을 기반으로 참다래 꽃썩음병 예측모형인 Pss-KBB Risk Model을 개발하였다. 비교평가를 통한 검증 결과, Pss-KBB Risk Model은 각각 온도와 강수 정보만을 이용하는 개화전 평균온도 모형과 강우일수 모형에 비해 실제 과수원의 병해 발생정도를 더 잘 모의하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 Pss-KBB Risk Model과 기상예보자료를 활용해 꽃썩음병의 발병 위험도를 예측하여 꽃썩음병에 대한 적기적량 방제가 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.133-140
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• 2009

In the paper, we proposed the systematical and quantitative software risk management methodology based on risk analysis model. A software risk management consists of the basic risk management method(BRIMM) and the detailed risk management method(DRIMM). BRIMM is applied to unimportant phases or the phase which also the risk factor does not heavily influence to project. DRIMM is used from the phase which influences highly in project success or the phase where the risk factor is many. Fulfilling risk management combined two methods, we can reduce project's budget, term and resource's usage, and prevent risk with the optimum measures obtained by the exact risk analysis.

• 한국데이타베이스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국데이타베이스학회 2010년도 춘계국제학술대회
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• pp.203-212
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• 2010

The mam purpose of this study is to find out how perceived risk elements influence to customers' perceived value and repurchase intention in the electronic commerce environment. To achieve the goal, we set 6 sub-dimensions - privacy risk, social risk, time loss risk, economic risk, psychological risk, and performance risk - based on comprehensive consideration of related studies, and established a research model included 2 factors such as perceived value and repurchase intention to measure performance in internet shopping malls. From 174 customers of the electronic commerce shopping malls survey data have been collected and analyzed based on the covariance structural model method. The results of this study are summarized as follows. Firstly, five perceived risk characteristics of privacy risk, time loss risk, economic risk, psychological risk, and performance risk are significantly positive effect on perceived value. Secondly, perceived value IS very significantly related to repurchase intention in electronic commerce shopping malls. Consequently, we discussed the strategies to create perceived value and repurchase intention in electronic commerce environment. Also we suggested the implications and further research directions.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.65-96
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• 2005

It is generally believed that, compared to traditional commerce, Electronic Commerce(EC) is more difficult to gain and sustain customers. One of the major reasons that customers do not use EC is lack of trust. Previous researches on the EC user's trust suggested that risk is an antecedent of trust and the concept of trust is highly related to risk. This study proposed a combined model in which includes the factors based on generic information security risk analysis methodology and trust factors in EC. The objectives of this study are follows; first, investigating the relationship between trust and risk that are antecedent factors of purchase intention, and second, examining the validity of information security risk analysis approach in EC environment. Based on the survey results of 143 MBA students statistical analysis showed that factors like threats and controls were significantly related to risk, but assets did not have statistically significant relationship with risk. Controls and knowledge of EC had meaningful effect on user's trust. This study found that risk analysis methodology which is generally used at organizational level is practically useful at user level on EC environment. In conclusion, the results of this study would be applied to generic situation of information security for analyzing and managing the risk. Besides, this study emphasized that EC vendors need to pay more attention to the information security risk to gain customer's trust.

• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.665-680
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• 2009

본 연구의 목적은 위험조정모형을 활용하여 미국 REITs의 부동산 유형별 성과 특성을 분석하는 것이다. 특히, REITs의 성과가 성장기, 정체기, 금융위기기에 각각 어떻게 차별적인 지를 살펴본다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째로, 초과 종합수익률의 관점에서 REITs 부동산 유형별 성과를 보면, 1기와 2기에는 정(+)의 초과 성과가 발생한 반면, 3기에는 부(-)의 초과 성과가 나타난다. 금융위기 시기인 3기의 경우, 부(-)의 수익률이 발생한 뿐만 아니라 수익률의 변동성도 큰 것으로 나타난다. 둘째로, 자본자산가격결정모형에 의해 추정한 베타값을 보면, <분석모형 (1)>의 결과에서 평균적인 REITs에 비해 호텔, 지역몰, 상업모기지는 고위험-고수익 특성을, 자유입지, 아파트, 조립식주택, 특수목적 부동산은 저위험-저수익 특성을 가진 것으로 나타난다. <분석모형 (2)>의 결과를 보면, 금융위기 하에서 투자상품으로서의 REITs의 성격이 저위험-저수익에서 고위험-고수익으로 변화하고 있다. 마지막으로, 위험조정모형 추정결과를 보면, <분석모형 (1)>과 <분석모형 (2)> 모두 체계적 위험은 요구수익률에 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 반면, 비체계적위험은 요구수익률에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타난다. 위험조정모형을 통해 도출된 요구수익률을 실제수익률과 비교한 결과, 헬쓰케어 부문이 가장 높은 정(+)의 성과를 보이고 있다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.96-101
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• 2009

In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.