• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Model

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Study on the Fire Risk Prediction Assessment due to Deterioration contact of combustible cables in Underground Common Utility Tunnels (지하공동구내 가연성케이블의 열화접촉으로 인한 화재위험성 예측평가)

  • Ko, Jaesun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.135-147
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    • 2015
  • Recent underground common utility tunnels are underground facilities for jointly accommodating more than 2 kinds of air-conditioning and heating facilities, vacuum dust collector, information processing cables as well as electricity, telecommunications, waterworks, city gas, sewerage system required when citizens live their daily lives and facilities responsible for the central function of the country but it is difficult to cope with fire accidents quickly and hard to enter into common utility tunnels to extinguish a fire due to toxic gases and smoke generated when various cables are burnt. Thus, in the event of a fire, not only the nerve center of the country is paralyzed such as significant property damage and loss of communication etc. but citizen inconveniences are caused. Therefore, noticing that most fires break out by a short circuit due to electrical works and degradation contact due to combustible cables as the main causes of fires in domestic and foreign common utility tunnels fire cases that have occurred so far, the purpose of this paper is to scientifically analyze the behavior of a fire by producing the model of actual common utility tunnels and reproducing the fire. A fire experiment was conducted in a state that line type fixed temperature detector, fire door, connection deluge set and ventilation equipment are installed in underground common utility tunnels and transmission power distribution cables are coated with fire proof paints in a certain section and heating pipes are fire proof covered. As a result, in the case of Type II, the maximum temperature was measured as $932^{\circ}C$ and line type fixed temperature detector displayed the fire location exactly in the receiver at a constant temperature. And transmission power distribution cables painted with fire proof paints in a certain section, the case of Type III, were found not to be fire resistant and fire proof covered heating pipes to be fire resistant for about 30 minutes. Also, fire simulation was carried out by entering fire load during a real fire test and as a result, the maximum temperature is $943^{\circ}C$, almost identical with $932^{\circ}C$ during a real fire test. Therefore, it is considered that fire behaviour can be predicted by conducting fire simulation only with common utility tunnels fire load and result values of heat release rate, height of the smoke layer, concentration of O2, CO, CO2 etc. obtained by simulation are determined to be applied as the values during a real fire experiment. In the future, it is expected that more reliable information on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents can be provided and it will contribute to construction and maintenance repair effectively and systematically by analyzing and accumulating experimental data on domestic underground common utility tunnels fire accidents built in this study and fire cases continuously every year and complementing laws and regulations and administration manuals etc.

Early Bowel Complications Following Radiotherapy of Uterine Cervi)( Carcinoma (자궁경부암의 방사선치료 후 급성 장관 합병증)

  • Kim, Won-Dong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.129-135
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    • 1999
  • Purpose : This study evaluated early bowel complications in cervix cancer patients, following external radiotherapy (ERT and high dose rate intracavitary radiation (HDR ICR). Factors affecting the risk of developing early bowel complications and its incidence are analyzed and discussed Materials and Methods : The study is the retrospective review of 66 patients who received radiotherapy at Chungbuk National University Hospital from April 1994 to December 1998. The patients underwent 41.4 or 50.4 Gy ERT according to FIGO stage and tumor size, then A point dose was boosted to 71.4 or 74.4 Gy using a remotely controlled afterloading Buchler HDR ICR. The EORTC/RTOG morbidity criteria were used to grade early bowel complications, which are valid from day 1, the commencement of therapy, through day 90. The actuarial incidence, severity of complications were investigated and clinical pretreatment factors relevant to complications were found through univariate (Wilcoxon) and multivariate (Cox proportional hazard model) analysis. Results : Of the 66 patients, 30 patients (46$\%$) developed early bowel complications; 25 patients (38$\%$) with grade 1 or 2, 4 patients (0$\%$) with grade 3 and 1 patient (2$\%$) with grade 4. The complications usually began to occur 3 weeks after the commencement of radiotherapy. The actuarial incidence of early bowel complications was 41$\%$ at 10 weeks. The early bowel complications were associated significantly with an old age and a history of previous abdomino-pelvic surgery. All three patients who had a protracted overall treatment time (about 2 weeks) due to severe bowel complication, suffered from pelvic recurrences. Conclusion : Forty six percent of patients experienced early bowel complications, most of which were grade 1 or 2 and relieved spontaneously or by medication. The patients with an old age or a previous surgery have a high probability of early complications and they may be less compliant with planned radiotherapy. So more careful precaution is necessary for these patients.

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The Decision of Voiding Cystourethrography in Children with Urinary Tract Infection (소아 요로감염에서 배뇨성 방광 요도 조영술의 결정)

  • Kim, Dong-Woon;Choi, Eung-Sang;Lim, In-Seok
    • Childhood Kidney Diseases
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.203-211
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : We attempted to compare the independent factors such as age, sex, C-reactive protein(CRP), and white blood cell count(WBC) in children with radiologic studies and assess the necessity of performing voiding cystourethrography(VCUG). Method : 98 children who have been diagnosed their first time febrile urinary tract infection from Janurary 2002 to Januray 2005 were enrolled. In all patient, the duration of fever which occurred before and after treatment was recorded, and CRP, WBC, $^{99m}Tc$-2,3-dimercaptosuccinic acid($^{99m}Tc$-DMSA) renal scans, renal ultrasound and VCUG were analyzed. Results : Of the 98 children diagnosed with urinary tract infection(UTI), 52 were male and 46 were female. 18 had abnormalities in VCUG, 17 had abnormalities in kidney ultrasound, and 20 had partial defects or diffuse uptake decrease in $^{99m}Tc$-DMSA renal scans. There were no significant relationship between incidence of radiologic abnormalities and age. The risk of renal scar was significantly higher in children who had a longer febrile period before treatment than in those with shorter period. Both CRP and WBC were significantly elevated in children with the radiological abnormalities. A positive of $^{99m}Tc$-DMSA renal scans and renal ultrasound were highly associated with vesicoureteral reflux(VUR). Conclusion : If there are abnormalities in the kidney ultrasound and $^{99m}Tc$-DMSA renal scan of a child with initial UTI, a VCUG is recommended. Even in cases without abnormal findings in $^{99m}Tc$-DMSA renal scan and renal ultrasound, clinical data such as CRP and WBC should be assessed, and VCUG should be Performed for the undetected VUR.

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Evaluation of Endothelium-dependent Myocardial Perfusion Reserve in Healthy Smokers; Cold Pressor Test using $H_2^{15}O\;PET$ (흡연자에서 관상동맥 내피세포 의존성 심근 혈류 예비능: $H_2^{15}O\;PET$ 찬물자극 검사에 의한 평가)

  • Hwang, Kyung-Hoon;Lee, Dong-Soo;Lee, Byeong-Il;Lee, Jae-Sung;Lee, Ho-Young;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2004
  • Purpose: Much evidence suggests long-term cigarette smoking alters coronary vascular endothelial response. On this study, we applied nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), an unsupervised learning algorithm, to CO-less $H_2^{15}O-PET$ to investigate coronary endothelial dysfunction caused by smoking noninvasively. Materials and methods: This study enrolled eighteen young male volunteers consisting of 9 smokers $(23.8{\pm}1.1\;yr;\;6.5{\pm}2.5$ pack-years) and 9 nonsmokers $(23.8{\pm}2.9 yr)$. They do not have any cardiovascular risk factor or disease history. Myocardial $H_2^{15}O-PET$ was performed at rest, during cold ($5^{\circ}C$) pressor stimulation and during adenosine infusion. Left ventricular blood pool and myocardium were segmented on dynamic PET data by NMF method. Myocardial blood flow (MBF) was calculated from input and tissue functions by a single compartmental model with correction of partial volume and spillover effects. Results: There were no significant difference in resting MBF between the two groups (Smokers: 1.43 0.41 ml/g/min and non-smokers: $1.37{\pm}0.41$ ml/g/min p=NS). during cold pressor stimulation, MBF in smokers was significantly lower than 4hat in non-smokers ($1.25{\pm}0.34$ ml/g/min vs $1.59{\pm}0.29$ ml/gmin; p=0.019). The difference in the ratio of cold pressor MBF to resting MBF between the two groups was also significant (p=0.024; $90{\pm}24%$ in smokers and $122{\pm}28%$ in non-smokers.). During adenosine infusion, however, hyperemic MBF did not differ significantly between smokers and non-smokers ($5.81{\pm}1.99$ ml/g/min vs $5.11{\pm}1.31$ ml/g/min ; p=NS). Conclusion: in smokers, MBF during cold pressor stimulation was significantly lower compared wi4h nonsmokers, reflecting smoking-Induced endothelial dysfunction. However, there was no significant difference in MBF during adenosine-induced hyperemia between the two groups.

Naringin Protects Ovalbumin-induced Asthma through the Down-regulation of MMP-9 Activity and GATA-3 Gene (Naringin에 의한 천식치료 효과연구)

  • Lee, Chang-Min;Chang, Jeong-Hyun;Jung, In-Duk;Jeong, Young-Il;Tae, Noh-Kyung;Park, Hee-Ju;Kim, Jong-Suk;Shin, Yong-Kyoo;Park, Sung-Nam;Park, Yeong-Min
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.735-743
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    • 2009
  • The common word flavonoids is often used to classify a family of natural compounds, highly abundant in all higher plants, that have received significant therapeutic interest in recent years. Naringin is associated with a reduced risk of heart disease, neurodegenerative disease, cancer and other chronic diseases; however the molecular basis of this effect remains to be elucidated. Thus we attempted to elucidate the anti-allergic effect of Naringin in ovalbumin (OVA)-induced asthma model mice. The OVA-induced mice showed allergic reactions in the airways. These included an increase in the number of eosinophils in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid, an increase in inflammatory cell infiltration into the lung around blood vessels and airways, airway luminal narrowing, and the development of airway hyper-responsiveness (AHR). The administration of Naringin before the last airway OVA challenge resulted in a significant inhibition of all asthmatic reactions. Accordingly, this study may provide evidence that Naringin plays a critical role in the amelioration of the pathogenetic process of asthma in mice. These findings provide new insight into the immunopharmacological role of Naringin in terms of its effects on asthma in mice.

Plasma Levels of High Molecular Weight Adiponectin are Associated with Cardiometabolic Risks in Patients with Hypertension (고혈압 환자에서 혈장 고분자량 아디포넥틴 농도와 심장-대사위험인자와의 관련성 연구)

  • Chung, Hye-Kyung;Shin, Min-Jeong
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.41 no.8
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    • pp.733-741
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    • 2008
  • In the present study, we comprehensively examined the associations of plasma levels of total adiponectin and high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin with the features of cardiometabolic risks including body fat distribution, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance and inflammatory markers in a cross-sectional study of 110 treated hypertensive patients. Blood lipid profiles, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA- IR) derived from fasting glucose and insulin concentrations were determined. Plasma levels of tumor necrosis factor-${\alpha}$ (TNF-${\alpha}$), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) were analyzed using ELISA. The results showed that plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with body mass index (BMI, r = - 0.203, p < 0.05) and waist circumference (r = -0.307, p < 0.01), which was not shown in total adiponectin. Plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with triglyceride (r = -0.223, p < 0.05) and positively associated with HDL-cholesterol (r = 0.228, p < 0.05). Plasma levels of adiponectin were positively associated with HDL-cholesterol (r = 0.224, p < 0.05). Plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin were negatively associated with hsCRP (r = -0.276, p < 0.01) and IL-6 (r = -0.272, p < 0.01). In addition, there were weak associations between plasma levels of HMWadiponectin and TNF-${\alpha}$ (r = -0.163, p = 0.07) and ICAM-1 (r = -0.158, p = 0.09). However, there were no significant associations of total adiponectin with inflammatory markers except hsCRP (r = -0.203, p < 0.05). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis showed that only plasma levels of HMW-adiponectin was an independent factor influencing serum levels of hsCRP, a marker of systemic low grade inflammation, after adjusting for age, gender, BMI, waist circumference, alcohol intake, smoking status, blood lipids, total adiponectin and drug use (p < 0.01). These results suggest that HMW-adiponectin, rather than total adiponectin, is likely to be closely associated with the features of cardiometabolic risks in treated hypertensive patients and might be effective biomarker for the prediction of cardiovascular disease.

The Effects of Female Wage on Fertility in Korea (여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Jungho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.105-138
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    • 2009
  • Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

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The Association between Types of Smoking and Periodontal Disease according to the Survey Year Using the Fourth and Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (조사연도에 따른 흡연 유형과 치주질환의 관련성 분석: 제4기, 제5기 국민건강영양조사를 이용하여)

  • Kim, Myoung-Hee;Yoon, Mi-Sook;Lim, Youn-Hee;Lee, Sae-Rom;Kim, So-Yeon;Park, Seon-Ju;Shin, Sun-Jung
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.487-494
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    • 2017
  • There is little evidence on the effects of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) on prevalence of periodontal disease. The aims of this study were to explore the trends of prevalence of periodontal disease and types of exposure to smoke, including ETS according to the survey year, identify factors affecting periodontal disease, and compare the effect size of periodontal disease between active smokers and secondhand smokers. Data on 11,643 individuals were obtained from the fourth and fifth Korean National Health and Nutritional Examination Surveys. Information on exposure to ETS at home and work was self-reported. Severity of periodontal disease was evaluated using the community periodontal index. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to model periodontal disease using types of smoking and the survey year. Overall, the prevalence of periodontal disease was 26.0% (n=3,029) and about 9% of the study population were secondhand smokers. The prevalence of periodontal disease among smokers was significantly increased according to smoking types by year. Active smokers showed a statistically significant adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for having periodontal disease except in the year 2007, whereas secondhand smokers had significant associations only in 2010 (aOR, 1.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.70) compared to non-smokers. For secondhand smokers, the statistical relationship of predicting periodontal disease was weaker than that of active smokers. However, ETS should separately be considered as an important risk factor for periodontal disease. This study suggested the need for further investigation of the impact of ETS on prevalence of periodontal disease using in-depth research designs and objective measurements for assessing periodontal disease and ETS.

A Study on Comparative Analysis of Socio-economic Impact Assessment Methods on Climate Change and Necessity of Application for Water Management (기후변화 대응을 위한 발전소 온배수 활용 양식업 경제성 분석)

  • Lee, Sangsin;Kim, Shang Moon;Um, Gi Jeung
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2011
  • In order to resolve the problem of change in global climate which is worsening as days go by and to preemptively cope with strengthened restriction on carbon emission, the government enacted 'Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth' in 2010 and selected green technology and green industry as new national growth engines. For this reason, the necessity to use the un-utilized waste heat across the whole industrial system has become an issue, and studies on and applications of recycling in the agricultural and fishery fields such as cultivation of tropical crops and flatfishes by utilizing the waste heat and thermal effluent generated by large industrial complexes including power plants are being actively carried out. In this study, we looked into the domestic and overseas examples of having utilized waste heat abandoned in the form of power plant thermal effluent, and carried out economic efficiency evaluation of sturgeon aquaculture utilizing thermal effluent of Yeongwol LNG Combined Cycle Power Plant in Gangwon-do. In this analysis, we analyzed the economic efficiency of a model business plan divided into three steps, starting from a small scale in order to minimize the investment risk and financial burden, which is then gradually expanded. The business operation period was assumed to be 10 years (2012~2021), and the NVP (Net Present Value) and economic efficiency (B/C) for the operation period (10 years) were estimated for different loan size by dividing the size of external loan by stage into 80% and 40% based on the basic statistics secured through a site survey. Through the result of analysis, we can see that reducing the size of the external loan is an important factor in securing greater economic efficiency as, while the B/C is 1.79 in the case the external loan is 80% of the total investment, it is presumed to be improved to 1.81 when the loan is 40%. As the findings of this study showed that the economic efficiency of sturgeon aquaculture utilizing thermal effluent of power plant can be secured, it is presumed that regional development project items with high added value can be derived though this, and, in addition, this study will greatly contribute to reinforcement of the capability of local governments to cope with climate change.

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The Influence of the Restrictions in Chinese economic growth on Korean commercial environment (중국 경제성장의 제약요인이 한국 통상환경에 미치는 영향)

  • Shong, Il-Ho;Lee, Gye-Young
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.457-479
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    • 2013
  • Through a Chinese rise, Chinese dream is actualizing as the world's great power. According to outlook of World Bank and IMF, Around 2030 China will be a great power bigger than America's economic power. The rise of China will give a huge impact to the whole world. China expands her influence through a global manufacturing base and a global market. To actualize 'Peaceful Rise' Strategy, China has many constraints. Chinese society is facing many difficult social problem due to side effects of a rapid development. Such as the spread of corruption, the severity of wealth gap, environmental degradation and energy shortage. Internationally there are containment from hegemon so-called 'China threat' dispute, Taiwan issue and territorial disputes. Western countries are hostile to China for two reasons. Based on expectations, one is China's socialist system and the other is the rising China which will compete for supremacy with Europe and America. Recent emergence of Chinese nationalism and the containment of the neighboring countries are also serious limiting factors. Domestically they have the rampant corruption in the bureaucracy, weakened capacity of Communist rule, wealth disparity due to the discriminatory economic development strategy, seriousness of rural problem, social instability, lack of social security systems and the development gap between the eastern coastal areas and western inland areas, ethnic minorities problems, the constraint of sustainable development issues due to lack of resources, environmental pollution and energy constraints. Like the former Soviet Union, China may face a dismantlement. After the rise, China may encounter possibilities of a war between great powers or a collapse of Chinese society caused by deepening internal conflict. Serious economic polarization would make peasants and urban workers, who are social vulnerable people, to turn their back to communist party and threaten the justification and the appropriateness of the ruling communist party. Chinese government will think internal system security threat is more formidable risk factor than a system security threat from the hegemon. The decline of great country comes from internal reasons rather than external reasons. To achieve peaceful rise, unification with Taiwan is an essential prerequisite. Taiwan issues are complex problems which equipped with international and domestic factors. Lack of energy resources, environmental pollution in China will bring economic crisis to Korean enterprises. Important influence to Korean economy will be a changeover of the method in economic development. It will turn the balance of investment and consumption, GDP-centered growth to consumption and environment-centered growth. Services industries including finance, environment, culture, education, health care and social welfare will grow. Change in China's growth model will give a great challenge upon the intermediate goods industry in Korea. Korea should reduce the portion of machinery, automotive, semiconductor, steel and chemical-centered export industry to China, and should increase the proportion of the service industry.

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