• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.201-217
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• 2015

In this paper, we report computational testing result to examine the validity of firm's bankruptcy risk estimation through quantification of supply chain risk. Supply chain risk in this study refers to upstream supply risk and downstream demand risk, To assess the firm's risk affected by supply chain risk, we adopt unit of analysis as industry level. since supply and demand relationships of the firm could be generalized by the industry input-output table and the availability of various valid economic indicators which are chronologically calculated. The research model to estimate firm's risk level is the linear regression model to assess the industry bankruptcy risk estimation of the focal firm's industry with the independent variables which could quantitatively reflect demand and supply risk of the industry. The publicly announced macro economic indicators are selected as the candidate independent variables and validated through empirical testing. To validate our approach, in this paper, we confined our research scope to steel industry sector and its related industry sectors, and implemented the research model. The empirical testing results provide useful insights to further refine the research model as the valid forecasting mechanism to capture firm's future risk estimation more accurately by adopting supply chain industry risk aspect, in conjunction with firm's financial and other managerial factors.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.129-152
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• 2019

Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically identify the risky behavior of mobile device users using the Internet of Things on a situational perspective. Design/methodology/approach This study made a design of the research model based on model of the determinants of risk behavior. Data were collected through a survey including hypothetical scenario. SmartPLS 2.0 was used for the structural model analysis and t-test was conducted to compare the between normal and situational behavior. Findings The results were as follows. First, the central roles of risk propriety and risk perception were verified empirically. Second, we identified the role of locus of control as a new factor of impact on risky behavior. Third, mobile risk propensity has been shown to increase risk perception. Fouth, it has been shown that risk perception does not directly affect risky behavior and reduce the relationship between mobile risk propensity and risk behavior. According to the empirical analysis result, Determinants of risk behavior for mobile users were identified based on a theoretical framework. And it raised the need to pay attention to the impact of locus of control on risk behavior in the IS security field. It provided direction to the approach to risky behavior of mobile device users. In addition, this study confirmed that there was a possibility of taking risky behavior in the actual decision-making.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.21-26
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• 1997

Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) developed a risk monitor called Risk Monster which supports for plant operators and maintenance schedulers to monitor plant risk and to avoid high peak risk by rearranging maintenance work schedule. Risk Monster can update the plant risk continuously according to the change of system/component configuration since Risk Monster reevaluates the plant risk based on the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) results. A brief description of Risk Monster is provided. The PSA model of UCN 3, 4 nuclear power plant was converted by KAERI to Risk Monster model. Using this Risk Monster model, a feasibility study of the on-line maintenance of an Essential Service Water (ESW) pump was performed. On-line maintenance of one ESW pump has been shown to be acceptably safe, and has economic benefits. In addition, it is not a violation of technical specification to continue plant operation with an out-of-service ESW pump.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.413-422
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• 2022

TBM is widely used in the construction of various underground projects in the current world, and has the unique advantages that cannot be compared with traditional excavation methods. However, due to the high cost of TBM, the damage is even greater when geological disasters such as collapse occur during excavation. At present, there is still a shortage of research on various types of risk prediction of TBM tunnel, and accurate and reliable risk prediction model is an important theoretical basis for timely risk avoidance during construction. In this paper, a prediction model is proposed to evaluate the risk level of tunnel collapse by establishing a reasonable risk index system, using analytic hierarchy process to determine the index weight, and using the normal cloud model theory. At the same time, the traditional analytic hierarchy process is improved and optimized to ensure the objectivity of the weight values of the indicators in the prediction process, and the qualitative indicators are quantified so that they can directly participate in the process of risk prediction calculation. Through the practical engineering application, the feasibility and accuracy of the method are verified, and further optimization can be analyzed and discussed.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.1518-1523
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• 2008

Train collision and derailment are types of accident with low probability of occurrence, but they could lead to disastrous consequences including loss of lives and properties. The development of the risk assessment model has been called upon to predict and assess the risk for a long time. Nevertheless, the risk assessment model is recently introduced to the railway system in Korea. The classification of the hazardous events and causes is the commencement of the risk assessment model. In previous researches related to the classification, the hazardous events and causes were classified by centering the results. That classification was simple, but might not show the root cause of the hazardous events. This study has classified the train collision and derailment based on the relevant hazardous event including faults of the train related the accidents, and investigates the causes related to the hazardous events. For the risk assessment model, FTA (fault tree analysis) and ETA (event tree analysis) methods are introduced to assess the risk.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.157-169
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• 2018

The purpose of this study was to examine the volatility of bitcoin, diagnose if bitcoin are a systematic risk asset, and evaluate their effectiveness by estimating market beta representing systematic risk using GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedastieity) model. First, the empirical results showed that the market beta of Bitcoin using the OLS model was estimated at 0.7745. Second, using GARCH (1, 2) model, the market beta of Bitcoin was estimated to be significant, and the effects of ARCH and GARCH were found to be significant over time, resulting in conditional volatility. Third, the estimated market beta of the GARCH (1, 2), AR (1)-GARCH (1), and MA (1)-GARCH (1, 2) models were also less than 1 at 0.8819, 0.8835, and 0.8775 respectively, showing that there is no systematic risk. Finally, in terms of efficiency, GARCH model was more efficient because the standard error of a market beta was less than that of the OLS model. Among the GARCH models, the MA (1)-GARCH (1, 2) model considering non-simultaneous transactions was estimated to be the most appropriate model.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.850-858
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• 2011

The risk analysis plays an important role in weapon system acquisition project due to uncertainties in the acquisition process. But in domestic, studies on risk analysis are insufficient and risk cost is not included in acquisition budget in policy. Therefore, in this study, we suggest a method that measures risk or success probability of project using the stochastic model. In particular, in order to calculate the success probability, we apply the joint probability distribution model of cost and schedule that are critical factors influencing the project risk. And also we verify the applicability of this model in Korean defence industry environment through case studies.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.47-61
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• 2005

Many researchers have proved that risk measurement of information systems is a very effective tool for improving confidence of information systems. However, information system risk in Korea still includes many subjective judgements. This study deals with applying a quantitative model to improve risk measurement of information system quality. First of all, we have come up with solutions to improve the evaluation efficiency on risk measurement. We have merged the risk guidelines of COBIT and CMM, and developed a quantified evaluation scheme that call by risk point. We have proved the validity of this model by interviews with experts and by case studies.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.623-635
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• 2013

Purpose: The recent major recalls of hazardous products caused consumer product safety acts to be strengthen worldwide. Although the recall system of hazardous products in Korea has been operating based on Framework Act on Product Safety since 2011, the evaluation of product risk has been relied on not the results of objective incident data but the results of illegal product investigations. The purpose of this paper is to propose a product risk assessment model for Korea using injury data. Methods: The authors derived Korea's risk assessment method by analysing the advantages and disadvantages of the most widely used models in advanced countries such as EU's RAPEX RAG and Janpan's R-MAP. In this study, the level of relative frequency and severity of injury are determined based on the objective incident data and the length of hospitalization respectively. In addition, the injury data occurred during 2011 is applied to the proposed risk assessment model for case study. Results: The data analysed in this paper can be classified as high risk, medium risk, low risk, acceptable risk, and safe products through the matrix f rom the combination of the relative frequency and the severity derived. Conclusion: The proposed risk assessment model in this study has advantage obtaining reliable objective results because it uses actual injury data and redeems the drawbacks of the existing models used in advanced countries. Furthermore, because the proposed model shows the high risk products among many, it is expected to be useful especially for customs whose main job is inspecting the imported goods and the government when selecting the target product groups for safety investigation.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.89-98
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• 2016

Purpose - This article tackles risk communication issues and aims to address the characteristics of MERS risk information distribution in South Korea, and secondly to examine the communicative behavior of the public health authority in terms of the quality of communication strategies. Thirdly, the study attempts to figure out the risk communication to cope with MERS through the applications of SMCRE model in chronological order. We employ the social amplification of risk framework for analyzing the emergent public response as one of the main approaches. Research Design, Data and Methodology - The main framework of this study is theoretically based on the social amplification of risk, which describes signals about risk transmitted and processed by individuals and social groups. The model also reflects the interactions between social groups and institutes about disaster-related risk issues, which are potential amplifiers or attenuators of communication signals. S-M-C-R-E Model is methodologically employed to examine the social amplification for MERS risk information in each period, which we defined operationally. The proposed methodology allows the assessment of effectiveness and ineffectiveness on risk communication to be conceptualized as a countermeasure against disasters. The paper focuses on exploring how social risk amplification can be applied and organized in each stage. Results - The SMCRE model describes the exchange of risk information and is also applied to all forms of communication between stakeholders including public health authority, local government and media. Each factor of risk communication includes source, message, channel, receiver and effect. The results support that the effective risk communication involves not only the improved reliability of public health authority as a key factor of risk communication, but also a close cooperation and good collaboration with local governments. It does not seem to be possible that the government-initiated risk communication based on controllability and management cope effectively with infectious disease in early stage. The results of this study imply that the shared risks between local, regional and national authorities can enhance risk communication system. Conclusions - The study supports that the disparities in how disaster-related risk information is interpreted and coded, have made effective risk communication and public sense-making impeded. Our findings support a more communicative discussion about the role of risk information sharing between governments for the improvement of emergency management and underline the importance of social elements in the risk communication, such as relationship and trust building. Findings suggest that trust building between stakeholders could be added to help explain the processes of social amplification and attenuation of risk. It would be recommended that the continuous risk communication with all the involved stakeholders will be able to help national health promotion policy to be improved regarding emergency management. Furthermore, risk communication has to be a scientific approach for the communication pertaining to potentially sensitive or controversial situations with public concerns and low public trust.