• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Management Model

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Survival Rate and Prognostic Factors of Esophageal Cancer in East Azerbaijan Province, North-west of Iran

  • Mirinezhad, Seyed Kazem;Somi, Mohammad Hossein;Jangjoo, Amir Ghasemi;Seyednezhad, Farshad;Dastgiri, Saeed;Mohammadzadeh, Mohammad;Naseri, Ali Reza;Nasiri, Behnam
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.13 no.7
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    • pp.3451-3454
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    • 2012
  • Background: Esophageal cancer in Iran is the sixth most common cancer and is particularly important in east Azerbaijan. The aim of this study was to calculate survival rates and define prognostic factors in esophageal cancer patients. Methods: In this study, all patients with esophageal cancer registered in the Radiation Therapy Center, during March 2006 to March 2011, were analyzed and followed up for vital status. Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Out of 532 patients, survival information was available for 460, including 205 (44/ 5%) females and 255 (55/4%) males. The mean age was $65.8{\pm}12.2$, ranging from 29 to 90 years at the time of diagnosis. 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates after diagnosis were 55%, 18% and 12%, respectively, with a median survival time of $13.2{\pm}.7$ (CI 95% =11.8-14.6) months. In the univariate analysis, age (P=0/001), education (P=0/001), smoking status (P= 0/001), surgery (P= 0/001), tumor differentiation (P= 0/003) and tumor stage (P= 0/001) were significant prognostic factors. Tumor morphology, sex, place of residence, tumor histology and tumor location did not show any significant effects on the survival rate. In multivariate analysis, age (P = 0/003), smoking (P= 0/01) and tumor stage (P= 0/001) were significant independent predictors of survival. Conclusion: In summary, prognosis of esophageal cancer in North West of Iran is poor. Therefore, reduction in exposure to risk factors and early detection should be emphasized to improve survival.

Estimation of Road-Network Performance and Resilience According to the Strength of a Disaster (재난 강도에 따른 도로 네트워크의 성능 및 회복력 산정 방안)

  • Jung, Hoyong;Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : This study examines the performance changes of road networks according to the strength of a disaster, and proposes a method for estimating the quantitative resilience according to the road-network performance changes and damage scale. This study also selected high-influence road sections, according to disasters targeting the road network, and aimed to analyze their hazard resilience from the network aspect through a scenario analysis of the damage recovery after a disaster occurred. METHODS : The analysis was conducted targeting Sejong City in South Korea. The disaster situation was set up using the TransCAD and VISSIM traffic-simulation software. First, the study analyzed how road-network damage changed the user's travel pattern and travel time, and how it affected the complete network. Secondly, the functional aspects of the road networks were analyzed using quantitative resilience. Finally, based on the road-network performance change and resilience, priority-management road sections were selected. RESULTS : According to the analysis results, when a road section has relatively low connectivity and low traffic, its effect on the complete network is insignificant. Moreover, certain road sections with relatively high importance can suffer a performance loss from major damage, for e.g., sections where bridges, tunnels, or underground roads are located, roads where no bypasses exist or they exist far from the concerned road, including entrances and exits to suburban areas. Relatively important roads have the potential to significantly degrade the network performance when a disaster occurs. Because of the high risk of delays or isolation, they may lead to secondary damage. Thus, it is necessary to manage the roads to maintain their performance. CONCLUSIONS : As a baseline study to establish measures for traffic prevention, this study considered the performance of a road network, selected high-influence road sections within the road network, and analyzed the quantitative resilience of the road network according to scenarios. The road users' passage-pattern changes were analyzed through simulation analysis using the User Equilibrium model. Based on the analysis results, the resilience in each scenario was examined and compared. Sections where a road's performance loss had a significant influence on the network were targeted. The study results were judged to become basic research data for establishing response plans to restore the original functions and performance of the destroyed and damage road networks, and for selecting maintenance priorities.

Association of Depressive/Anxiety Symptoms with Ego Resilience and Social Conflict/Support in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (당뇨병 환자에서 우울 및 불안증상과 자아탄력성, 사회적 갈등 및 지지 사이의 연관성)

  • Jung, Hoe-Woon;Kim, Sang Hoon;Park, Sang Hag;Kim, Seung-Gon;Kim, Jung Ho;Seo, Eun Hyun;Yoon, Hyung-Jun
    • Anxiety and mood
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2020
  • Objective : The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of depressive/anxiety symptoms with psychosocial factors including ego resilience, social conflict, and social support as well as hemoglobin A1c in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods : The subjects were 144 patients with DM. Depressive/anxiety symptoms were evaluated by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Sociodemographic factors, hemoglobin A1c, ego resilience, social conflict, and social support were measured. Multiple regression analyses were performed to examine the impact of hemoglobin A1c, ego resilience, social conflict, and social support on depressive/anxiety symptoms. Results : A total of 32.6% and 24.3% of participants were identified with depressive and anxiety symptoms, respectively. Depressive/anxiety symptoms positively correlated with the social conflict score. Conversely, ego resilience and social support negatively correlated with depressive/anxiety symptoms. In the final model of the multiple regression analyses, ego resilience was associated with a lower level of depressive (β=-0.083, p=0.019)/anxiety (β=-0.125, p=0.001) symptoms whereas social conflict was related to a higher level of depressive (β=0.353, p=0.011)/anxiety (β=0.460, p=0.003) symptoms. Also, hemoglobin A1c positively associated with anxiety symptoms (β=0.495, p=0.012) whereas social support negatively related to depressive symptoms (β=-0.464, p=0.004). Conclusion : We found possible risk and protective psychosocial factors of underlying depressive/anxiety symptoms among patients with DM. Our findings suggest that enhancing ego resilience and social support as well as decreasing social conflict would be crucial in the prevention and management of depressive/anxiety symptoms in patients with DM.

Development of Predictive Models of Listeria monocytogenes in Fresh-Cut Fruits and Vegetables (신선편의 냉장·냉동 과채류에서 Listeria monocytogenes의 예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, Geun Hyang;Lim, Ju Young;Kim, Yeon Ho;Yang, So Young;Yoon, Ki Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.495-502
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    • 2020
  • Processing fresh produce into fresh-cut products increases the risk of bacterial growth and contamination by breaking the exterior barrier of produce. Our objective in this study was to develop predictive models of Listeria monocytogenes in the fresh-cut salad, fresh-cut pineapple, and frozen mango. Predictive growth and survival models were developed to predict the change of L. monocytogenes populations in the fresh-cut salad (4, 10, 12, 13, 17, 25, and 36℃), fresh-cut pineapple (4, 10, 17, 25, 30, and 36℃), and frozen mango (-2, -10 and -18℃) as a function of temperature. The growth of L. monocytogenes in fresh-cut salad and pineapple was observed at above 13℃ and 10℃, respectively. The growth of L. monocytogenes in pineapple was faster than in salad. The delta value of L. monocytogenes in frozen mango increased as the storage temperature decreased. The results indicate that L. monocytogenes behave differently according to the physicochemical properties of fresh-cut fruits and vegetables. Since L. monocytogenes grow and survive well in refrigerated and frozen conditions, management programs and preventive controls for the processing of fresh-cut produce should be effectively implemented to enhance the safety of fresh-cut fruits and vegetables at retail markets.

Systematic Review : Comparative Safety and Efficacy of Mono- and Combination Therapy of Anti-hypertensive Agents Acting on the Renin-Angiotensin System (레닌-안지오텐신계에 작용하는 항고혈압 약제의 단독요법과 병용요법의 안전성 및 유효성에 대한 체계적 문헌고찰)

  • Choi, Kyung-Eob;Kim, Hyun-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.364-375
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    • 2011
  • Given that single blockade with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) can achieve only partial and undurable suppression of the Renin Angiotensin System (RAS), it has been hypothesized that dual blockage would be more beneficial in the management of blood pressure (BP) reduction and prevention of progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD) than either agent alone. Thus, it has been suggested that the combination of an ACEI and an ARB might provide renal benefits to hypertensive patients over and above BP reduction. However, this might also expose patients to additive or synergistic side effects. We attempted to conduct a systematic review to evaluate the benefits and harms of combination therapy in hypertensive patients with or without kidney diseases. MEDLINE and KoreaMed were searched for relevant randomized clinical trials in adult hypertensive patients with or without diabetes (restricted to 1997, limited to trials published in English). Results were summarized using the random-effects model, and between-studies heterogeneity was estimated with $I^2$. A final analysis of ten trials (23,928 patients) revealed that the combination of an ACEI and an ARB reduced blood pressure (SBP/DBP) by 3.95/2.02 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI], -4.38 to -3.53/-2.33 to -1.71) compared with ACEI monotherapy, and 2.83/2.64 mmHg (95% CI, -3.25 to -2.41/-4.95 to -0.33) compared with ARB monotherapy. Eight trials (391 patients) demonstrated a significant reduction in 24h-proteinuria (weighted mean difference, 0.16 g/day, 95% CI, -0.26-0.05), but they did not translate into an improvement in GFR. Tests for heterogeneity showed no difference in effect among the studies. The combination therapy reduced proteinuria by 30% (95% CI, 23% to 37%) and 39% (95% CI, 31% to 48%) compared with ACEI monotherapy and ARB monotherapy, respectively. However, in patients who had proteinuria more than 0.5 g/day, the combination therapy failed to show significant reduction in urinary protein excretion. The current cumulative evidence suggests that diabetic patients with proteinuria on dual RAS blockade have an increase risk of adverse events such as hyperkalemia, hypotension, and so on, compared with ACEI or ARB alone. It is, therefore, proposed that the combination therapy should not be routinely used for the treatment of hypertension with or without compelling indications.

Priority assessment and estimation of annual power generation for potential development site of hydroelectric dam in North Korea (북한지역 수력발전댐 개발가능지점에 대한 연간가능발생전력량 분석 및 개발 우선순위 평가)

  • Kwon, Minsung;Kim, Tae-Woong;Ahn, Jaehyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.929-939
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    • 2018
  • In North Korea, hydropower which occupies about 63% of power generation is a major electric power source, and North Korea has many advantages in the geographical for developing hydroelectric power. In this study, Information on the basin and dam capacity for 33 potential development site of hydroelectric dam was analyzed using DEM, and potential annual power generation was estimated by applying results of long-term runoff simulation with MWSWAT model for recent 30-year. The potential annual power generation at 33 dam was estimated to be about 28% of the current hydroelectric power in North Korea. In addition, a priority of dam development in each province was assessed by estimating the scale of an industry and prospecting the population change in the future. And a priority for dam development within the province was estimated based on the dam capacity and the potential annual power generation. The priority of each province was ranked in order of Pyeongannamdo, Hamgyungnamdo, Hamgyungbukdo, Hwanghaebukdo, Pyeonganbukdo, Jagangdo, Ryanggangdo, Hwanghaenamdo, and Gangwondo. The results of this study can be used as an initial review data for advancing to hydropower development project in North Korea.

Association between BMI and Mortality - Kangwha cohort study - (BMI와 사망과의 관련성 - 강화 코호트 연구 -)

  • Yoon, Soo-Jin;Yi, Sang-Wook;Kim, Soh-Yoon;Lee, Soon-Young;Park, Yun-Hee;Sohn, Tae-Yong;Ohrr, Hee-Choul
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.459-468
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    • 2000
  • Objectives : To investigate the association between BMI and Mortality. Methods : This study was based on the analysis and assembly of the 'Kangwha Cohort Study', previously conducted by the Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University. A total of 2,696 males and 3,595 females were followed for almost ten years and ten months from March 1985 to January 1996, a total of whom 2,420 died during this period. The Cox's proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze this data. Results : We found a U-shaped relationship between BMI and mortality among the aged men in the Kangwha cohort. The hazard ratio of dying was adjusted for age, marital status, occupation, self cognitive health level, chronic disease, smoking, and alcohol frequency, then sorted by body mass index into the following groups; less than 10.5, 18.5 to less than 21.0, 21.0 to less than 23.5, 23.5 to less than 26.0 and greater than or equal to 26. The corresponding ratios for men were 1.81(1.50-2.19, 95%CI), 1.31(1.14-1.51, 95%CI), 1.0(referent), 1.05(0.87-1.26, 95%CI) and 1.39(1.09-1.76, 95%CI), respectively. And for women, 1.46(1.19-1.78), 1.12(0.95-1.31, 95%CI), 1.0(referent), 1.00(0.84-1.20, 95%CI) and 1.09(0.89-1.34, 95%CI), respectively. Conclusions : The risk of death among aged men in Kangwha increased in the under and overweight groups. The relationship between BMl and mortality has been well studied in Western populations, but little is known about the association between BMI and mortality in our country. So, on the basis of this study, it is apparent that more studies of the relationship between BMI and mortality will be needed for future work.

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An Empirical Study on the Influence of Entrepreneurship of Franchisor's CEO on Franchisor's Performance (프랜차이즈 가맹본부 CEO의 기업가정신이 기업성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kang, Byung-Oh;Kim, Jin-Soo;Ahn, Sung-Sik
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.87-117
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    • 2010
  • 'Entrepreneurship' which means spirit or activity seeking new value by challenging boldly the uncertainty is one of the most important concept in 21st century business environment. Franchise Industry taking a relationship with distribution industry also needs entrepreneurship. As franchise industry consists of small and medium enterprises, the entrepreneurship of franchisor's CEO is important for the franchisor's growth. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors influencing on the entrepreneurship of franchisor's CEO, and the effect of the CEO's entrepreneurship on franchisor's performance. For this purpose, this study set CEO's psychological characteristics, market characteristics, and social-institutional characteristics as independent variables, CEO's entrepreneurship as parameter variables, and franchisor's performance as dependent variables. And to analyze this study model, this study collected questionnaires from 152 franchisors' CEOs, and uses SEM(Structural Equation Modeling). As the result, 'CEO's Entrepreneurship' influenced on both 'Franchisor's Financial Performance' and 'Franchisor's Non Financial Performance'. The results of this study provide some guides for franchisor's CEO and government policies.

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Development of Korean SPAR(Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research) System for Impact Assessment of Climate Changes and Environmental Stress (기후변화 및 환경스트레스 영향평가를 위한 한국형 SPAR(Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research) 시스템의 개발)

  • Sang, Wan-Gyu;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Shin, Pyong;Baek, Jae-Kyeong;Lee, Yun-Ho;Cho, Jung-Il;Seo, Myung-Chul
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.187-195
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    • 2019
  • The needs for precise diagnostics and farm management-decision aids have increased to reduce the risk of climate change and environmental stress. Crop simulation models have been widely used to search optimal solutions for effective cultural practices. However, limited knowledge on physiological responses to environmental variation would make it challenging to apply crop simulation models to a wide range of studies. Advanced research facilities would help investigation of plant response to the environment. In the present study, the sunlit controlled environment chambers, known as Korean SPAR (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research) system, was developed by renovating existing SPAR system. The Korean SPAR system controls and monitors major environmental variables including atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperature and soil moisture. Furthermore, plants are allowed to grow under natural sunlight. Key physiological and physical data such as canopy photosynthesis and respiration, canopy water and nutrient use over the whole growth period are also collected automatically. As a case study, it was shown that the Korean SPAR system would be useful for collection of data needed for understanding the growth and developmental processes of a crop, e.g., soybean. In addition, we have demonstrated that the canopy photosynthetic data of the Korean SPAR indicate the precise representation of physiological responses to environment variation. As a result, physical and physiological data obtained from the Korean SPAR are expected to be useful for development of an advanced crop simulation model minimizing errors and confounding factors that usually occur in field experiments.

Research on Water-Energy-Food Comprehensive Utilization Efficiency in China (중국의 물-에너지-식량 종합 이용 효율성을 평가 연구)

  • LU, YULIN;HE, YAN
    • Journal of Digital Policy
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2022
  • The World Economic Forum has included Water-Energy-Food among the three major risk groups in the world, and Water-Energy-Food is related to the development strategies of countries and the lives of their citizens. This study calculates the combined Water-Energy-Food use efficiency in China for 2011-2020 based on the SBM-Malmquist index. The results show that the overall combined Water-Energy-Food efficiency in China is low, but shows an upward trend. There is a clear variability in the combined Water-Energy-Food utilization efficiency in China, with an overall geographic distribution pattern of East > Middle > West. Only Beijing and Shanghai have reached the real above effective nationwide, and all other provinces have inefficiency between input and output. The Malmquist index of integrated Water-Energy-Food utilization efficiency is 1.136, with an up ward trend, and technical efficiency and technological progress lead the improvement of integrated Water-Energy-Food utilization efficiency in China at the sametime. The Water-Energy-Food issue should be raised to a strategic level as soon as possible, and policy support should be provided for its development. Each region should establish a cross-regional coordinating body to formulate targeted measures according to the province's food production and water distribution, so as to promote economic transformation from sloppy development to green development as soon as possible.