• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Likelihood

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Development of RBI Procedures and Implementation of a Software Based on API Code (III) - Quantitative Approach (API 기준에 근거한 RBI 절차 개발 및 소프트웨어의 구현 (III) - 정량적 접근법 -)

  • 송정수;심상훈;최송천;윤기봉
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2003
  • During the last decade, effort has been made f3r reducing maintenance cost for aged equipments and ensuring safety, efficiency and profitability of petrochemical and refinery plants. Hence, it was required to develop advanced methods which meet this need. RBI(Risk Based Inspection) methodology is one of the most promising technology satisfying the requirements in the field of integrity management. In this study, a quantitative assessment algorithm fir RBI based on the API 581 code was reconstructed for developing an RBI software. The user-friendly realRBI software is developed with a module for evaluating quantitative risk md financial risk using the potential consequence and the likelihood. Also, inspection planning module for inspection time and inspection method are included in it.

A Study on the Communication Strategy to Risk Management of Agri-marine Products Distribution Policy (농수산물 유통정책의 위기관리에 따른 커뮤니케이션전략에 관한 연구 - 유통정책 갈등해소에 대한 스캐닝, 모니터링을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Man-Ki
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2008
  • The present study attempted to explore effective scanning and monitoring in process of risk management on agri-marine products distribution policy. The interest public's group interests clash in accordance with theme for issue on marking policy. For executing a better systematic scanning and monitoring on actual affairs of marketing, selecting information personnel, gathering and analysing information, issue and risk management and their valuation with ongoing and simultaneously. Especially, In order to explore effective scanning and monitoring as a model of risk management, the study attempted to analyze within and without environment of marketing, to analyze issue management strategy, to evaluate issue activity for likelihood and impact, risk cycle analysis, interest public's group concerned, grade of interest public's group threatened(power, legitimacy, willingness), rapport(staying close, credibility, meeting expectation). And the study make an ongoing observation progress of subjects, and the serious subjects need have made an close observation. The study suggested to establish friendly relationship between organization and interest public's group, and to regularly accomplish two-way symmetric communication.

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Development of a Risk Assesment Model for Excavator Work (굴착기 투입 작업의 위험성 평가모델 개발)

  • Kang, Sumin;Ra, Bohyun;Yang, Yejin;Han, Seungwoo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.11a
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    • pp.133-134
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the criteria for assessing industrial accidents have been replaced by the mortality rate. It was found that the number of deaths from excavation work was the highest among construction machinery. The risk assessment is being conducted, however the industrial accident mortality rate has not decreased. Accordingly, this study aims to provide the basic for the create of a risk assessment model specialized in construction work at excavator. It provides absolute value from the risk model which is capable of delivery the probability of a disaster. In addition, we provide a relative risk model that compares the risk through scores between detailed works. The relative risk model is combined by likelihood and severity; the likelihood indicates the frequency of accidents and the severity indicates seriousness of fatal accidents. A variable that reflects the conditions of the construction site was added to the risk assessment model based on past disaster cases. And using the concepts of probability and average, the risk assessment process was quantified and used as an objective indicator. Therefore, the model is expected to reduce disasters by raising the awareness of disasters.

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Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Brittle Fracture through Quantitative Risk Based Inspection using API-581 (API-581에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 취성파괴에 의한 사고발생 가능성 해석)

  • Kim Tae-Ok;Lee Hern-Chang;Jang Seo-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.10 no.1 s.30
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2006
  • To use pressurized facilities safely and effectively, a likelihood of failure (LOF) for the brittle fracture was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that for the case of the low temperature/low toughness and the temper embrittlement, the technical module subfactor (TMSF) showed high value for the A impact curve, low temperature, and the no post weld heat treatment. But the risk didn't significantly change at the $855^{\circ}F$ embrittlement, and the LOF far the sigma phase embrittlement showed high value at low temperature of the high sigma.

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Application of rip current likelihood distributions on rip current forecast system (이안류 예보를 위한 이안류 발생정도 분포 함수의 적용)

  • Choi, Junwoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.8
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    • pp.521-528
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    • 2023
  • An approach for producing a rip current risk index using the rip current likelihood distribution obtained through the FUNWAVE simulations was applied to a rip current forecast system. The approach originally developed for an observation-based real-time rip current warning system was utilized with wave forecast data instead of observations for the rip current forecast system. The availability of the present approach was checked by comparing the observation-based rip current risk index and the wave forecast-based rip current risk index of the Haeundae Beach in 2021.

Estimation for Exponential Distribution under General Progressive Type-II Censored Samples

  • Kang, Suk-Bok;Cho, Young-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.239-245
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    • 1997
  • By assuming a general progressive Type-II censored sample, we propose the minimum risk estimator (MRE) and the approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE) of the scale parameter of the one-parameter exponential distribution. An example is given to illustrate the methods of estimation discussed in this paper.

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Risk Factors Influencing the Delays on the Remodeling Construction Works - Focused on Office Building Projects - (리모델링 공사의 공기지연을 야기하는 리스크 요인 - 오피스 건축물을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Kyu-Man;Kim, Tae-Hoo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.385-394
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    • 2018
  • There have been frequent reports of schedule delays due to various risks of remodeling projects, which are different from new construction. Therefore, this study was carried out to analyze the risk factors inherent in the remodeling project and the likelihood of schedule delay occurrence in the remodeling construction work. To analyze the relationship between the risk factors and the likelihood of schedule delays of remodeling projects, (1) a prototype of the office building remodeling work was developed through the analysis of existing case and literature, (2) a questionnaire survey was conducted on 29 construction managers who have been or are currently conducting remodeling projects, and (3) after evaluating the reliability of the collected questionnaire results, the relationship between the two elements, which denotes (i) likelihood of schedule delays per each work, (ii) importance of risk factors, and (iii) risk factors affecting schedule delay in remodeling work, was suggested. Using the results of this study, it is expected to develop a plan for preventing the schedule delay of the office building remodeling work through control the risk factors that may cause schedule delays.

On using Bayes Risk for Data Association to Improve Single-Target Multi-Sensor Tracking in Clutter (Bayes Risk를 이용한 False Alarm이 존재하는 환경에서의 단일 표적-다중센서 추적 알고리즘)

  • 김경택;최대범;안병하;고한석
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2001.06d
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    • pp.159-162
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    • 2001
  • In this Paper, a new multi-sensor single-target tracking method in cluttered environment is proposed. Unlike the established methods such as probabilistic data association filter (PDAF), the proposed method intends to reflect the information in detection phase into parameters in tracking so as to reduce uncertainty due to clutter. This is achieved by first modifying the Bayes risk in Bayesian detection criterion to incorporate the likelihood of measurements from multiple sensors. The final estimate is then computed by taking a linear combination of the likelihood and the estimate of measurements. We develop the procedure and discuss the results from representative simulations.

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Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Corrosion of High Temperature $H_2S/H_2$ through Risk Based-Inspection (위험기반검사에서 고온 $H_2S/H_2$ 부식에 의한 사고발생 가능성 해석)

  • Lee Hern-Chang;Lee Joong-Hee;Kim Tae-Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2006
  • The likelihood of failure by the corrosion of high temperature $H_2S/H_2$, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the corrosion rate was increased as temperature and $H_2S$ concentration were increased. Also, the technical module subfactor(TMSF) was increased as an used you increased, material thickness decreased, inspection number decreased, and inspection effectiveness increased. In these conditions, the maximum value of TMSF was not varied, but the TMSF was sensitively varied at low temperature for high concentration of $H_2S$.

Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Stress Corrosion Cracking by Caustic Cracking through the Quantitative Risk Based-Inspection using API-581 BRD (API-581 절차에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 부식성 균열에 의한 응력부식의 사고발생 가능성 해석)

  • Lee, Hern-Chang;Choi, Sung-Kyu;Cho, Ji-Hoon;Ham, Byung-Ho;Kim, Tae-Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2007
  • The likelihood of failure for the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of caustic cracking, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that SCC of the caustic cracking was occurred above 5 % NaOH concentration, and the technical module subfactor (TMSF) was maximized for above 50 % concentration. The heat traced and monitoring were not sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. But the steam out was more of less affect minimum value of the TMSF. Also, the inspection number, the inspection effectiveness, and the year since inspection were very sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. Therefore, the plan of next inspection will be established with compositively considering those at once.