• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Likelihood

검색결과 375건 처리시간 0.029초

A study on the liquefaction risk in seismic design of foundations

  • Ardeshiri-Lajimi, Saeid;Yazdani, Mahmoud;Assadi-Langroudi, Arya
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.805-820
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    • 2016
  • A fully coupled non-linear effective stress response finite difference (FD) model is built to survey the counter-intuitive recent findings on the reliance of pore water pressure ratio on foundation contact pressure. Two alternative design scenarios for a benchmark problem are explored and contrasted in the light of construction emission rates using the EFFC-DFI methodology. A strain-hardening effective stress plasticity model is adopted to simulate the dynamic loading. A combination of input motions, contact pressure, initial vertical total pressure and distance to foundation centreline are employed, as model variables, to further investigate the control of permanent and variable actions on the residual pore pressure ratio. The model is verified against the Ghosh and Madabhushi high acceleration field test database. The outputs of this work are aimed to improve the current computer-aided seismic foundation design that relies on ground's packing state and consistency. The results confirm that on seismic excitation of shallow foundations, the likelihood of effective stress loss is greater in deeper depths and across free field. For the benchmark problem, adopting a shallow foundation system instead of piled foundation benefitted in a 75% less emission rate, a marked proportion of which is owed to reduced materials and haulage carbon cost.

Cohort-based evacuation time estimation using TSIS-CORSIM

  • Park, Sunghyun;Sohn, Seokwoo;Jae, Moosung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제53권6호
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    • pp.1979-1990
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    • 2021
  • Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) can provide decision-makers with a likelihood to implement evacuation of a population with radiation exposure risk by a nuclear power plant. Thus, the ETE is essential for developing an emergency response preparedness. However, studies on ETE have not been conducted adequately in Korea to date. In this study, different cohorts were selected based on assumptions. Existing local data were collected to construct a multi-model network by TSIS-CORSIM code. Furthermore, several links were aggregated to make simple calculations, and post-processing was conducted for dealing with the stochastic property of TSIS-CORSIM. The average speed of each cohort was calculated by the link aggregation and post-processing, and the evacuation time was estimated. As a result, the average cohort-based evacuation time was estimated as 2.4-6.8 h, and the average clearance time from ten simulations in 26 km was calculated as 27.3 h. Through this study, uncertainty factors to ETE results, such as classifying cohorts, degree of model complexity, traffic volume outside of the network, were identified. Various studies related to these factors will be needed to improve ETE's methodology and obtain the reliability of ETE results.

SHERPA기법을 이용한 항공기 착륙상황에서 발생 가능한 인적오류 예측 (Predicting Human Errors in Landing Situations of Aircraft by Using SHERPA)

  • 최재림;한혁재;함동한
    • 한국항공운항학회지
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.14-24
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to examine probable human errors when landing an airplane by the use of SHERPA(systematic human error reduction and prediction approach) and propose methods for preventing the predictive human errors. It has been reported that human errors are concerned with a lot of accidents or incidents of an airplane. It is significant to predict presumable human errors, particularly in the operation mode of human-automation interaction, and attempt to reduce the likelihood of predicted human error. By referring to task procedures and interviewing domain experts, we analyzed airplane landing task by using HTA(hierarchical task analysis) method. In total, 6 sub-tasks and 19 operations were identified from the task analysis. SHERPA method was used for predicting probable human error types for each task. As a result, we identified 31 human errors and predicted their occurrence probability and criticality. Based on them, we suggested a set of methods for minimizing the probability of the predicted human errors. From this study, it can be said that SHERPA can be effectively used for predicting probable human error types in the context of human-automation interaction needed for navigating an airplane.

The Quality of a Traditional Dietary Pattern in Relation to Metabolic Syndrome in Elderly South Koreans

  • Oh, Chorong;No, Jaekyung
    • Journal of Obesity & Metabolic Syndrome
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.254-261
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    • 2018
  • Background: The most beneficial dietary pattern in managing metabolic syndrome (MetS) in the elderly has not been ascertained. The aim of this study is to classify dietary patterns and to examine associations between dietary pattern, MetS and body composition in elderly Koreans. Methods: This study was conducted among Koreans 65 years or older using data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2009. A total of 1,567 study subjects were included. All statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS version 20.0 and dietary patterns were classified by cluster analysis. Results: There were three dietary patterns derived by cluster analysis in this study. We observed that most South Korean elderly still maintain a traditional dietary pattern. Dietary patterns were classified as balanced (31%), imbalanced (40%), or very imbalanced (30%), with the majority of subjects having an unbalanced diet pattern in which their total energy and nutrient intake was insufficient compared with the Dietary Reference Intake for Koreans. Those in the very imbalanced group had a ratio of macronutrients (carbohydrates:fats:protein) of 81.15:7.18:11.50 and a 54% higher likelihood of having hypertriglyceridemia (P=0.025) compared with those in the balanced group. Conclusion: The current findings indicate that the diets of South Korean elderly are nutritionally imbalanced, including high carbohydrate consumption, which confers a high risk hypertriglyceridemia. These findings highlight the effect of nutritional imbalance in elderly with MetS.

확률강우분포의 매개변수 및 불확실성 추정을 위한 베이지안 기법의 비교 (Comparison of Bayesian Methods for Estimating Parameters and Uncertainties of Probability Rainfall Distribution)

  • 서영민;박재호;최윤영
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2019
  • This study investigates the performance of four Bayesian methods, Random Walk Metropolis (RWM), Hit-And-Run Metropolis (HARM), Adaptive Mixture Metropolis (AMM), and Population Monte Carlo (PMC), for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution, and the results are compared with those of conventional parameter estimation methods; namely, the Method Of Moment (MOM), Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), and Probability Weighted Method (PWM). As a result, Bayesian methods yield similar or slightly better results in parameter estimations compared with conventional methods. In particular, PMC can reduce parameter uncertainty greatly compared with RWM, HARM, and AMM methods although the Bayesian methods produce similar results in parameter estimations. Overall, the Bayesian methods produce better accuracy for scale parameters compared with the conventional methods and this characteristic improves the accuracy of probability rainfall. Therefore, Bayesian methods can be effective tools for estimating the parameters and uncertainties of probability rainfall distribution in hydrological practices, flood risk assessment, and decision-making support.

Cut-Off Values of the Post-Intensive Care Syndrome Questionnaire for the Screening of Unplanned Hospital Readmission within One Year

  • Kang, Jiyeon;Jeong, Yeon Jin;Hong, Jiwon
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제50권6호
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    • pp.787-798
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study aimed to assign weights for subscales and items of the Post-Intensive Care Syndrome questionnaire and suggest optimal cut-off values for screening unplanned hospital readmissions of critical care survivors. Methods: Seventeen experts participated in an analytic hierarchy process for weight assignment. Participants for cut-off analysis were 240 survivors who had been admitted to intensive care units for more than 48 hours in three cities in Korea. We assessed participants using the 18-item Post-Intensive Care Syndrome questionnaire, generated receiver operating characteristic curves, and analysed cut-off values for unplanned readmission based on sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratios. Results: Cognitive, physical, and mental subscale weights were 1.13, 0.95, and 0.92, respectively. Incidence of unplanned readmission was 25.4%. Optimal cut-off values were 23.00 for raw scores and 23.73 for weighted scores (total score 54.00), with an area of under the curve (AUC) of .933 and .929, respectively. There was no significant difference in accuracy for original and weighted scores. Conclusion: The optimal cut-off value accuracy is excellent for screening of unplanned readmissions. We recommend that nurses use the Post-Intensive Care Syndrome Questionnaire to screen for readmission risk or evaluating relevant interventions for critical care survivors.

Generate Optimal Number of Features in Mobile Malware Classification using Venn Diagram Intersection

  • Ismail, Najiahtul Syafiqah;Yusof, Robiah Binti;MA, Faiza
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제22권7호
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    • pp.389-396
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    • 2022
  • Smartphones are growing more susceptible as technology develops because they contain sensitive data that offers a severe security risk if it falls into the wrong hands. The Android OS includes permissions as a crucial component for safeguarding user privacy and confidentiality. On the other hand, mobile malware continues to struggle with permission misuse. Although permission-based detection is frequently utilized, the significant false alarm rates brought on by the permission-based issue are thought to make it inadequate. The present detection method has a high incidence of false alarms, which reduces its ability to identify permission-based attacks. By using permission features with intent, this research attempted to improve permission-based detection. However, it creates an excessive number of features and increases the likelihood of false alarms. In order to generate the optimal number of features created and boost the quality of features chosen, this research developed an intersection feature approach. Performance was assessed using metrics including accuracy, TPR, TNR, and FPR. The most important characteristics were chosen using the Correlation Feature Selection, and the malicious program was categorized using SVM and naive Bayes. The Intersection Feature Technique, according to the findings, reduces characteristics from 486 to 17, has a 97 percent accuracy rate, and produces 0.1 percent false alarms.

Associations between the Frequency and Quantity of Heated Tobacco Product Use and Smoking Characteristics among Korean Smoking Adolescents

  • Lee, Haein;Lee, Bo Gyeong
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제53권2호
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: Although heated tobacco product (HTP) use among adolescents is an emerging public health problem, little is known about the frequency and quantity of HTP use. Thus, we investigated the associations between the frequency and quantity of HTP use and smoking characteristics (i.e., combustible cigarette [CC] and electronic cigarette [EC] use, and attempts to quit smoking) among CC-smoking adolescents. Methods: We analyzed nationally representative data from 2,470 Korean adolescents who were current CC smokers. To investigate our aim, we conducted multinomial logistic and logistic regression analyses. Results: We found that daily and heavier CC users had greater likelihoods of more frequent and heavier HTP use. In addition, dual users of CCs and ECs were more likely to use HTPs more frequently and heavily than CC users who did not use ECs. Moreover, daily EC users had the highest risk of frequent and heavy HTP use. The frequency and quantity of HTP use were not associated with attempts to quit smoking. Compared to CC-only use, dual use of CCs and HTPs was not associated with quitting attempts, and triple use of CCs, ECs, and HTPs was associated with a lower likelihood of quitting attempts. Conclusion: HTP use was less likely to displace CC use and promote attempts to quit smoking. Thus, strict regulations are required to prevent the promotion of HTPs as a substitute for CCs or as a means of quitting smoking. Additionally, health professionals should consider preventive interventions for HTP, as well as CC and EC use among adolescents.

Obstacle Zone by Target 기반 선박 충돌회피 알고리즘 개발에 관한 연구 (A Study on Collision Avoidance Algorithm Based on Obstacle Zone by Target)

  • 이찬욱;이성욱
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제61권2호
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    • pp.106-114
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    • 2024
  • In the 21st century, the rapid development of automation and artificial intelligence technologies is driving innovative changes in various industrial sectors. In the transportation industry, this is evident with the commercialization of autonomous vehicles. Moreover research into autonomous navigation technologies is actively underway in the aviation and maritime sectors. Consequently, for the practical implementation of autonomous ships, an effective collision avoidance algorithm has become a crucial element. Therefore, this study proposes a collision avoidance algorithm based on the Obstacle Zone by Target(OZT), which visually represents areas with a high likelihood of collisions with other ships or obstacles. The A-star algorithm was utilized to represent obstacles on a grid and assess collision risks. Subsequently, a collision avoidance algorithm was developed that performs fuzzy control based on calculated waypoints, allowing the vessel to return to its original course after avoiding the collision. Finally, the validity of the proposed algorithm was verified through collision avoidance simulations in various encounter scenarios.

Combined effects of sugar-sweetened beverage consumption, screen-based sedentary behavior, and sleep duration on South Korean adolescent obesity: a cross-sectional study

  • Jin Suk Ra;Do Thi Thu Huyen
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study examined the combined effects of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption, screen-based sedentary behaviors, and sleep duration on adolescent obesity. Methods: It followed a cross-sectional study design and conducted secondary analysis on data from 20,497 high school students who participated in the 17th (2021) Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey. This study underwent logistic regression analysis in complex sampling analysis. Results: The combinations of low and medium consumption of SSBs, excessive screen-based sedentary behaviors, and short sleep durations were associated with a 1.18 and 1.12 fold increased likelihood of obesity (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.03-1.35) and (95% CI=1.02-1.22), respectively. The combination of high SSB consumption, appropriate screen-based sedentary behaviors, and short sleep duration (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]=1.15, 95% CI=1.01-1.31) and high SSB consumption, excessive screen-based sedentary behaviors, and short sleep duration (aOR=1.40, 95% CI=1.16-1.69) were associated with obesity. Conclusion: Integrated and tailored programs considering combination patterns of SSB consumption, screen-based sedentary behaviors, and short sleep duration need to be developed for preventing adolescent obesity.