• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Likelihood

검색결과 379건 처리시간 0.028초

Systematic Review on Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) DNA in Diagnosis of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Asian Populations

  • Han, Bao-Lin;Xu, Xiang-Ying;Zhang, Chun-Zhi;Wu, Jian-Juan;Han, Chun-Feng;Wang, Hui;Wang, Xuan;Wang, Guang-Shun;Yang, Shu-Juan;Xie, Yao
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제13권6호
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    • pp.2577-2581
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    • 2012
  • Objective: To conduct a meta-analysis to investigate the value of EBV DNA in diagnosis of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) in Asian populations, and provide important evidence for screening. Methods: Prospective or respective case-control or cohort studies regarding the detection role of EBV DNA for NPC were included in our study. We conducted a comprehensive literature search in PubMed, EMBASE, and the Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM database between January 1980 and March 2012. Results: A total of 18 studies with 1492 NPC cases and 2641 health controls were included. Almost of the included studies were conducted in China, and only one other conducted in Thailand. The overall results demonstrated that the pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood (+LR) and negative likelihood (-LR) were 0.73 (0.71-0.75), 0.89 (0.88-0.90), 8.84 (5.65-13.84) and 0.19(0.11-0.32), respectively. The overall EBV DNA detection showed the largest area of 0.932 under the summary receiver operator curve (SROC). The accuracy of detection by plasma for NPC (0.86) was higher than in serum (0.81), with largest areas under the SROC of 0.97 and 0.91, respectively. Conclusion: Our results demonstrated the EBV DNA detection in plasma or serum has high sensitivity and specificity in diagnosis of NPC, especially in Chinese populations with a high risk of cancer.

여자 노인의 거주지별 영양상태 및 관련 요인 (Nutrition States and Related Factors of Female Elderly according to Residence)

  • 박미연;박정영;박필숙
    • 동아시아식생활학회지
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    • 제25권1호
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2015
  • This study aimed to compare and evaluate nutritive conditions of the female elderly (2,893 people) based on a national health nutrition survey and health-related factors influencing nutritional intake. The results are as follows.- Average age of all subjects was $72.12{\pm}5.2$ old. BMI ($24.48{\pm}3.3kg/m^2$) and waist size ($83.9{\pm}9.5cm$) of urban elderly was larger ($23.74{\pm}3.3kg/m^2$, $82.28{\pm}9.9cm$) than that of rural elderly. MAR[4] and MAR[10] were also higher in urban elderly than rural elderly. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that factors influencing poor nutrition of elderly subjects were increasing age, smoking, and self-rated health. Old-old and current smokers were associated with a higher likelihood of poor nutrition (OR 1.82, 95%CI 1.43~2.30) and (OR 3.40, 95%CI 2.17~5.33) elderly female subjects in urban areas. Smoking (OR 2.29, 95%CI 1.33~3.95), poor self-rated health (OR 1.55, 95%CI 1.11~2.16), over nine hours of sleep per nighting (OR 1.72, 95%CI 1.17~2.53) and stress (OR 1.46, 95%CI 1.10~1.92) of elderly female subjects in rural areas were associated with higher likelihood of a poor nutrition. In conclusion, rural elderly are more influenced by poor health practice behaviors (self-rated health, sleeping stress) and psychological factors. Nutrition status of the rural elderly is worse than that of the urban elderly. To reduce nutritional risk of Korean elderly, especially rural elderly, active nutrition arbitration should include psychological environmental factors.

Diagnostic Value of Rectal Bleeding in Predicting Colorectal Cancer: a Systematic Review

  • Tong, Gui-Xian;Chai, Jing;Cheng, Jing;Xia, Yi;Feng, Rui;Zhang, Lu;Wang, De-Bin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.1015-1021
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    • 2014
  • This study aimed at summarizing published study findings on the diagnostic value of rectal bleeding (RB) and informing clinical practice, preventive interventions and future research areas. We searched Medline and Embase for studies published by September 13, 2013 examining the risk of colorectal cancer in patients with RB using highly inclusive algorithms. Data for sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio and positive predictive value (PPV) of RB were extracted by two researchers and analyzed applying Meta-Disc (version 1.4) and Stata (version 11.0). Methodological quality of studies was assessed according to QUADAS. A total of 38 studies containing 5,626 colorectal cancer patients and 73,174 participants with RB were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.47 (95% CI: 0.45-0.48) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.96-0.96) respectively. The overall PPVs ranged from 0.01 to 0.21 with a pooled value of 0.06 (95% CI: 0.05-0.08). Being over the age of 60 years, change in bowel habit, weight loss, anaemia, colorectal cancer among first-degree relatives and feeling of incomplete evacuation of rectum appeared to increase the predictive value of RB. Although RB greatly increases the probability of diagnosing colorectal cancer, it alone may not be sufficient for proposing further sophisticated investigations. However, given the high specificity, subjects without RB may be ruled out of further investigations. Future studies should focus on strategies using RB as an "alarm" symptom and finding additional indications to justify whether there is a need for further investigations.

50세 이상 중년 및 노인의 건강행위 요인에 따른 영양위험 연구 (Health-Related Behavioral Factors Associated with Nutritional Risks in Korean Aged 50 years and Over)

  • 임경숙
    • 대한지역사회영양학회지
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    • 제12권5호
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    • pp.592-605
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    • 2007
  • Undernutrition could be a significant deterrent to healthy aging and could negatively affect health outcomes in elderly. This study aimed to assess health-related factors which are associated with nutritional risks in middle-aged and elderly individuals by a cross-sectional study. Interviews were conducted with 2660 subjects (847 males, 1813 females), aged 50 years and over, in 15 cities in Korea. Data on food intake were obtained through a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires. Nutritional status were analyzed according to health-related factors including cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking, exercise, stress and depression level. Less regular exercise was associated with a higher likelihood of a poor nutrition [odds ratio (OR) 1.94; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.43-2.65] of middle-aged and elderly male subjects. Cigarette smoking (OR 1.84; 95% CI 1.24-2.71), less exercise (OR 2.58; 95% CI 2.07-3.21), stress (OR 1.73; 95% CI 1.36-2.22), and depression (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.08-1.67) of middle-aged and elderly female subjects was associated with a higher likelihood of a poor nutrition. The results of the multiple regression analysis showed that less exercise proved to be the strongest predictors for the poor nutrition, followed by stress, smoking, and depression (model $R^2= 9.0%$). It suggests that guidance to promote regular exercise, to quit smoking, to minimize stress and depression level might help to improve nutritional status of middle-aged and elderly in Korea. These findings also suggest that having recommendable health behaviors are beneficial to the good nutrition of subjects aged 50 years and over.

양방향 GPT 네트워크를 이용한 VMS 메시지 이상 탐지 (Detection of Anomaly VMS Messages Using Bi-Directional GPT Networks)

  • 최효림;박승영
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.125-144
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    • 2022
  • VMS (variable message signs) 시스템이 악의적인 공격에 노출되어 교통안전과 관련된 거짓 정보를 출력하게 된다면 운전자에게 심각한 위험을 초래할 수 있다. 이러한 경우를 방지하기 위해 VMS 시스템에 사용되는 메시지들을 수집하여 평상시의 패턴을 학습한다면 VMS 시스템에 출력될 수 있는 이상 메시지를 빠르게 감지하고 이에 대한 대응을 할 수 있을 것이다. 본 논문에서는 양방향 GPT (generative pre-trained transformer) 모델을 이용하여 VMS 메시지의 평상 시 패턴을 학습한 후 이상 메시지를 탐지하는 기법을 제안한다. 구체적으로, 제안된 기법에 VMS 메시지 및 시스템 파라미터를 입력 하고 이에 대한 NLL (negative log likelihood) 값을 최소화하도록 학습한다. 학습이 완료되면 판정해야 할 대상의 NLL 값을 계산한 후, 문턱치 값 이상일 경우 이를 이상으로 판정한다. 실험 결과를 통해, 공격에 의한 악의적인 메시지 탐지뿐만 아니라 시스템의 오류가 발생하는 상황에 대한 탐지도 가능함을 보였다.

Pathogenesis and Prevention of Intraventricular Hemorrhage in Preterm Infants

  • Pei-Chen Tsao
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • 제66권3호
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    • pp.228-238
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    • 2023
  • Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is a serious concern for preterm infants and can predispose such infants to brain injury and poor neurodevelopmental outcomes. IVH is particularly common in preterm infants. Although advances in obstetric management and neonatal care have led to a lower mortality rate for preterm infants with IVH, the IVH-related morbidity rate in this population remains high. Therefore, the present review investigated the pathophysiology of IVH and the evidence related to interventions for prevention. The analysis of the pathophysiology of IVH was conducted with a focus on the factors associated with cerebral hemodynamics, vulnerabilities in the structure of cerebral vessels, and host or genetic predisposing factors. The findings presented in the literature indicate that fluctuations in cerebral blood flow, the presence of hemodynamic significant patent ductus arteriosus, arterial carbon dioxide tension, and impaired cerebral venous drainage; a vulnerable or fragile capillary network; and a genetic variant associated with a mechanism underlying IVH development may lead to preterm infants developing IVH. Therefore, strategies focused on antenatal management, such as routine corticosteroid administration and magnesium sulfate use; perinatal management, such as maternal transfer to a specialized center; and postnatal management, including pharmacological agent administration and circulatory management involving prevention of extreme blood pressure, hemodynamic significant patent ductus arteriosus management, and optimization of cardiac function, can lower the likelihood of IVH development in preterm infants. Incorporating neuroprotective care bundles into routine care for such infants may also reduce the likelihood of IVH development. The findings regarding the pathogenesis of IVH further indicate that cerebrovascular status and systemic hemodynamic changes must be analyzed and monitored in preterm infants and that individualized management strategies must be developed with consideration of the risk factors for and physiological status of each preterm infant.

원주시와 춘천시 흡연 관련 요인 비교 분석: 국민건강보험공단 건강검진 DB 바탕으로 (A Comparative Analysis of Smoking-Associated Factors in Wonju-si and Chuncheon-si: Based on the National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Database)

  • 정윤지;설이서;조형경;이현지;이광수
    • 한국병원경영학회지
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.24-36
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    • 2023
  • Purposes: The purpose of this study was to analyze the factors associated with current smoking status in Wonju-si and Chuncheon-si, and to study the cause of difference in smoking rates between these two regions. Methodology: Data was from the National Health Insurance Service database from 2019 to 2020. Current smoking status was based on the response to the health examination questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with current smoking status. The study included 207,307 individuals from Wonju-si and 173,698 individuals from Chuncheon-si. Findings: The smoking rate of Wonju-si was 19.83%, and Chuncheon-si was 18.20%, showing a difference in the smoking rates between the two regions. Logistic regression analysis found that men, those aged 40-49, being a self-employed insured, a medical-aid beneficiary, having a lower income, working in construction, transport, storage, communication, or manufacturing industries, having a high-risk drinking level and being underweight were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of smoking(p<0.05). Additionally, having a chronic disease was associated with a lower likelihood of smoking in the case of Chuncheon-si(p<0.05). Practical Implication: This study found the differences of factors associated with smoking rates between the two regions and could provide implications for establishing intervention programs or policies that could contribute to lowering the smoking rate in areas with high smoking rates.

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Rare Disaster Events, Growth Volatility, and Financial Liberalization: International Evidence

  • Bongseok Choi
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.96-114
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

Analysis of dietary behavior and intake related to glycemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes aged 30 years or older in Korea: Utilizing the 8th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2019-2021)

  • Jin-Ah Seok;Yeon-Kyung Lee
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.239-256
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    • 2024
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Over the past 10 yrs, the prevalence of diabetes in Korea has continued to incline, and the importance of lifestyle modification to manage diabetes has been highlighted. For patients with diabetes, carbohydrate intake reduction is effective in improving glycemic control; thus, we aimed to analyze the effect of carbohydrate intake ratio and suggest an appropriate carbohydrate intake ratio. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Using the 8th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2019-2021), we analyzed the data including participants aged 30 yrs or older with diabetes, and they were stratified into good and poor glycemic control groups. To analyze the correlation between the dietary behavior characteristics of participants with diabetes and the carbohydrate intake ratio, sociodemographic characteristics, dietary behavior, and health behavior were adjusted, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to present the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: In the unadjusted crude model, when carbohydrate intake ratio in total energy intake increased by 1%, the likelihood of poor glycemic control increased by 1.007-fold (95% CI, 0.998-1.016; P = 0.121). In model 1, which uses age and sex as adjustment variables, an increase of up to 1.011-fold was possible (95% CI, 1.001-1.021; P = 0.008). In model 2, which added variables such as diabetes duration, frequency of fruit consumption, frequency of lunch and, frequency of dinner, the risk of poor glycemic control increased by 1.010-fold as the carbohydrate intake ratio increased (95% CI, 0.998-1.022; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This study confirmed that as the ratio of carbohydrate intake to total energy intake increases the likelihood of poor glycemic control also increases in patients with diabetes. Therefore, to improve glycemic control in patients with diabetes, controlling the carbohydrate intake may be helpful.

도심지 대단면 복합지반 NATM 과 TBM 터널공법의 비교위험도 분석 (Comparative risk analysis of NATM and TBM for mixed-face large-diameter urban tunneling)

  • 김영근;문준식;심재범;이승복;최창림;천윤철
    • 한국터널지하공간학회 논문집
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2011
  • 터널 공사 중 많은 문제를 야기시킬 수 있는 불확실한 지반상태 및 터널 공법에 따른 여러 리스크를 최소화 할 수 있도록 전반적인 위험도 평가를 터널 설계 시 반드시 수행하여야 한다. 본 연구에서는 도심지 및 하저터널 구간의 터널공법으로 NATM 또는 쉴드 TBM 적용시 공법별 발생할 수 있는 리스크에 대하여 분석하였다. 우선 연구대상 지역의 주요 리스크 항목을 선정한 후 공법적용시 발생 가능한 리스크와 그 영향을 검토하고, 각각의 리스크 발생가능성과 터널공사에 미치는 위험도에 따라 정량적으로 등급화 하였다. 이러한 리스크 분석을 통하여 주요 위험도 영향을 고려한 공사비 및 공기분석을 수행하고 터널공법별 비교위험도를 평가하였다. 본 연구결과를 바탕으로 복합지반으로 구성된 도심지 대단면 터널에 대해 리스크 발생을 최소화 할 수 있는 안전하고 경제적인 터널공법을 선정하였다. 단, 본 연구는 국한된 지층 및 특별조건에서의 비교위험도를 평가한 결과임을 밝혀둔다.