• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Likelihood

검색결과 379건 처리시간 0.02초

API 기준에 근거한 RBI 절차 개발 및 소프트웨어의 구현 (III) - 정량적 접근법 - (Development of RBI Procedures and Implementation of a Software Based on API Code (III) - Quantitative Approach)

  • 송정수;심상훈;최송천;윤기봉
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.56-63
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    • 2003
  • During the last decade, effort has been made f3r reducing maintenance cost for aged equipments and ensuring safety, efficiency and profitability of petrochemical and refinery plants. Hence, it was required to develop advanced methods which meet this need. RBI(Risk Based Inspection) methodology is one of the most promising technology satisfying the requirements in the field of integrity management. In this study, a quantitative assessment algorithm fir RBI based on the API 581 code was reconstructed for developing an RBI software. The user-friendly realRBI software is developed with a module for evaluating quantitative risk md financial risk using the potential consequence and the likelihood. Also, inspection planning module for inspection time and inspection method are included in it.

농수산물 유통정책의 위기관리에 따른 커뮤니케이션전략에 관한 연구 - 유통정책 갈등해소에 대한 스캐닝, 모니터링을 중심으로 (A Study on the Communication Strategy to Risk Management of Agri-marine Products Distribution Policy)

  • 김만기
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.63-73
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    • 2008
  • The present study attempted to explore effective scanning and monitoring in process of risk management on agri-marine products distribution policy. The interest public's group interests clash in accordance with theme for issue on marking policy. For executing a better systematic scanning and monitoring on actual affairs of marketing, selecting information personnel, gathering and analysing information, issue and risk management and their valuation with ongoing and simultaneously. Especially, In order to explore effective scanning and monitoring as a model of risk management, the study attempted to analyze within and without environment of marketing, to analyze issue management strategy, to evaluate issue activity for likelihood and impact, risk cycle analysis, interest public's group concerned, grade of interest public's group threatened(power, legitimacy, willingness), rapport(staying close, credibility, meeting expectation). And the study make an ongoing observation progress of subjects, and the serious subjects need have made an close observation. The study suggested to establish friendly relationship between organization and interest public's group, and to regularly accomplish two-way symmetric communication.

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굴착기 투입 작업의 위험성 평가모델 개발 (Development of a Risk Assesment Model for Excavator Work)

  • 강수민;나보현;양예진;한승우
    • 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건축시공학회 2022년도 가을 학술논문 발표대회
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    • pp.133-134
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the criteria for assessing industrial accidents have been replaced by the mortality rate. It was found that the number of deaths from excavation work was the highest among construction machinery. The risk assessment is being conducted, however the industrial accident mortality rate has not decreased. Accordingly, this study aims to provide the basic for the create of a risk assessment model specialized in construction work at excavator. It provides absolute value from the risk model which is capable of delivery the probability of a disaster. In addition, we provide a relative risk model that compares the risk through scores between detailed works. The relative risk model is combined by likelihood and severity; the likelihood indicates the frequency of accidents and the severity indicates seriousness of fatal accidents. A variable that reflects the conditions of the construction site was added to the risk assessment model based on past disaster cases. And using the concepts of probability and average, the risk assessment process was quantified and used as an objective indicator. Therefore, the model is expected to reduce disasters by raising the awareness of disasters.

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API-581에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 취성파괴에 의한 사고발생 가능성 해석 (Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Brittle Fracture through Quantitative Risk Based Inspection using API-581)

  • 김태옥;이헌창;장서일
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2006
  • 압력설비를 안전하고 효율적으로 사용하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 API-581 절차에 의한 위험기반검사에서 취성파괴에 의한 사고발생 가능성을 정량적으로 해석하였다. 그 결과, 낮은 온도/낮은 인성파괴와 뜨임취성에서는 A 충격곡선이고. 낮은 온도와 열처리 전인 상태에서 기술종속계수(TMSF)가 큰 값을 나타내었고, $855^{\circ}F$ 취성에서는 위험도가 무시할 수 있었으나, 시그마상 취성에서는 낮은 온도의 고 시그마인 경우에 TMSF가 큰 값을 나타내어 사고발생 가능성이 매우 높았다.

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이안류 예보를 위한 이안류 발생정도 분포 함수의 적용 (Application of rip current likelihood distributions on rip current forecast system)

  • 최준우
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제56권8호
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    • pp.521-528
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    • 2023
  • FUNWAVE 이안류 수치모의를 통해 얻은 이안류 발생정도 분포(파고-주기, 파고-조위, 파고-파향, 파고-주파수 스펙트럼 광협도, 파고-파향 스펙트럼 광협도)를 이용한 이안류 위험지수 생산 기법을 이안류 예보체계에 적용하였다. 이 기법은 관측 기반의 실시간 이안류 경보체계를 위해 개발되었으나, 관측정보를 대신하여 파랑예보 정보를 사용하므로 예보체계에 활용하였다. 2021년 해운대 해수욕장에 대하여 관측 기반으로 생산된 이안류 위험지수와 파랑예보 기반의 지수를 비교하여 그 가능성을 검토하였다.

Estimation for Exponential Distribution under General Progressive Type-II Censored Samples

  • Kang, Suk-Bok;Cho, Young-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.239-245
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    • 1997
  • By assuming a general progressive Type-II censored sample, we propose the minimum risk estimator (MRE) and the approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE) of the scale parameter of the one-parameter exponential distribution. An example is given to illustrate the methods of estimation discussed in this paper.

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리모델링 공사의 공기지연을 야기하는 리스크 요인 - 오피스 건축물을 중심으로 - (Risk Factors Influencing the Delays on the Remodeling Construction Works - Focused on Office Building Projects -)

  • 조규만;김태훈
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.385-394
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    • 2018
  • 오피스 건축물의 리모델링 사업에서, 신축과는 다른 리모델링 사업의 다양한 리스크로 인해 공기가 지연되는 사례가 빈번하게 보고되고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 리모델링 프로젝트의 리스크 요인들과 리모델링 공사의 작업별 공기지연 발생가능성의 관계를 분석하고자 수행되었다. 리모델링 사업의 경험이 있는 29명의 전문가 면담결과의 과학적 통계적 분석을 통해, 리모델링 사업의 리스크 요인과 그로 인한 작업별 공기지연 가능성을 크게 3가지 측면에서 분석하였다. 즉, (i) 리모델링 공사의 작업별 공기지연 가능성, (ii) 리모델링 공사의 리스크 요인별 중요도, (iii) 리모델링 공사의 공기지연에 영향을 미치는 리스크 요인 등 세가지 분석결과를 제시하였다.

Bayes Risk를 이용한 False Alarm이 존재하는 환경에서의 단일 표적-다중센서 추적 알고리즘 (On using Bayes Risk for Data Association to Improve Single-Target Multi-Sensor Tracking in Clutter)

  • 김경택;최대범;안병하;고한석
    • 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전자공학회 2001년도 하계종합학술대회 논문집(4)
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    • pp.159-162
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    • 2001
  • In this Paper, a new multi-sensor single-target tracking method in cluttered environment is proposed. Unlike the established methods such as probabilistic data association filter (PDAF), the proposed method intends to reflect the information in detection phase into parameters in tracking so as to reduce uncertainty due to clutter. This is achieved by first modifying the Bayes risk in Bayesian detection criterion to incorporate the likelihood of measurements from multiple sensors. The final estimate is then computed by taking a linear combination of the likelihood and the estimate of measurements. We develop the procedure and discuss the results from representative simulations.

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위험기반검사에서 고온 $H_2S/H_2$ 부식에 의한 사고발생 가능성 해석 (Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Corrosion of High Temperature $H_2S/H_2$ through Risk Based-Inspection)

  • 이헌창;이중희;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2006
  • The likelihood of failure by the corrosion of high temperature $H_2S/H_2$, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the corrosion rate was increased as temperature and $H_2S$ concentration were increased. Also, the technical module subfactor(TMSF) was increased as an used you increased, material thickness decreased, inspection number decreased, and inspection effectiveness increased. In these conditions, the maximum value of TMSF was not varied, but the TMSF was sensitively varied at low temperature for high concentration of $H_2S$.

API-581 절차에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 부식성 균열에 의한 응력부식의 사고발생 가능성 해석 (Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Stress Corrosion Cracking by Caustic Cracking through the Quantitative Risk Based-Inspection using API-581 BRD)

  • 이헌창;최성규;조지훈;함병호;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2007
  • The likelihood of failure for the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of caustic cracking, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that SCC of the caustic cracking was occurred above 5 % NaOH concentration, and the technical module subfactor (TMSF) was maximized for above 50 % concentration. The heat traced and monitoring were not sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. But the steam out was more of less affect minimum value of the TMSF. Also, the inspection number, the inspection effectiveness, and the year since inspection were very sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. Therefore, the plan of next inspection will be established with compositively considering those at once.