• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Likelihood

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Algorithms for Causality Evaluation of Adverse Events from Health/Functional Foods (건강기능식품 부작용 원인분석을 위한 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Kyung-Jin;Park, Kyoung-Sik;Kim, Jeong-Hun;Lee, Young-Joo;Yoon, Tae-Hyung;No, Ki-Mi;Park, Mi-Sun;Leem, Dong-Gil;Yoon, Chang-Yong;Jeong, Ja-Young
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.302-307
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    • 2011
  • One of the most important objectives of post-marketing monitoring of dietary supplements is the early detection of unknown and unexpected adverse events (AEs). Several causality algorithms, such as the Naranjo scale, the RUCAM scale, and the M & V scale are available for the estimation of the likelihood of causation between a product and an AE. Based on the existing algorithms, the Korea Food & Drug Administration has developed a new algorithm tool to reflect the characteristics of dietary supplements in the causality analysis. However, additional work will be required to confirm if the newly developed algorithm tool has reasonable sensitivity and not to generate an unacceptable number of false positives signals.

Evaluation of the impact of typhoon on daily maximum precipitation (태풍이 일 최대강수량에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Yang, Miyeon;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1415-1425
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    • 2017
  • Typhoons are accompanied by strong wind and heavy rains. It causes casualties and property damage on the Korean peninsula every year. The effect of typhoon to daily precipitation should be quantified to prevent the damage of typhoon. Daily precipitation, maximum wind speed and, mean wind speed data was collected from 60 weather stations between 1976 and 2016. The parameters of the generalized extreme value distribution were estimated through the maximum likelihood estimation and the L-moment estimation. The impact of a typhoon can be obtained through a comparison of return levels between the whole data and typhoon excluded data. We conclude that the eastern and southern coastline are exposed to the risk of heavy rainfall which is caused by typhoon.

The Aspiration of Foreign Body in the Left Tracheobronchial Tree during Gold Crown Restoration -A Case Report- (금관 수복치료 후 발생한 좌측 기관지 내로의 금관 흡인에 관한 증례보고)

  • Shin, Teo-Jeon;Seo, Kwang-Suk;Kim, Hyun-Jeong
    • Journal of The Korean Dental Society of Anesthesiology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.54-57
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    • 2010
  • Foreign body aspiration (FBA) into the tracheobronchial tree could be life threatening requiringprompt intervention. Any objects placed in the oral cavity put patients at a risk of aspirating or swallowing the objects slipped or broken by physical injuries. Here, we report a case of 30 yr old patient with FBA during gold crown replacement was successfully treated with the use of the flexible bronchoscope. Case: A 30 yr old woman was admitted to Seoul National Dental Hospitalfor an amalgam restoration. She was scheduled to gold crown restoration for replacement of the damaged amalgam at #37 site. After performing crown lengthening procedure, the aspiration of gold crown occurred during the cementation of the crown. After aspiration, the patients complained of the subjective distress of respiration. Chest radiograph revealed that gold crown was enlodged to the left bronchus. Flexible fiberoptics was inserted to the bronchus to remove the aspirated crown. Fiberoptic assisted removal of the aspiratedcrown was successfully performed. After removal, there was no radiopaque material in the left bronchus on follow-up chest radiograph. Discussion: When aspiration of dental materials occurs, flexible fiberoptic can be used in the treatment of FBA. It is also very useful to take preventive management such as rubber dam, application of dental floss in dental procedure where there is high likelihood of FBA.

Lack of any Association of the CTLA-4 +49 G/A Polymorphism with Breast Cancer Risk in a North Indian Population

  • Minhas, Sachin;Bhalla, Sunita;Shokeen, Yogender;Jauhri, Mayank;Saxena, Renu;Verma, Ishwar Chandra;Aggarwal, Shyam
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.2035-2038
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    • 2014
  • Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA-4) is an important protein involved in the regulation of the immune system. The +49 G/A polymorphism is the only genetic variation in the CTLA-4 gene that causes an amino acid change in the resulting protein. It is therefore the most extensively studied polymorphism among all CTLA-4 genetic variants and contributions to increasing the likelihood of developing cancer are well known in various populations, especially Asians. However, there have hiterto been no data with respect to the effect of this polymorphism on breast cancer susceptibility in our North Indian population. We therefore assayed genomic DNA of 250 breast cancer subjects and an equal number of age-, sex- and ethnicity-matched healthy controls for the CTLA-4 +49 G/A polymorphism but no significant differences in either the gene or allele frequency were found. Thus the CTLA-4 +49 G/A polymorphism may be associated with breast cancer in other Asians, but it appears to have no such effect in North Indians. The study also highlights the importance of conducting genetic association studies in different ethnic populations.

A Pilot Study on Screening of BRCA1 Mutations (185delAG, 1294del40) in Nepalese Breast Cancer Patients

  • Bhatta, Bibek;Thapa, Roshina;Shahi, Sanjay;Bhatta, Yogesh;Pandeya, Dipendra Raj;Poudel, Bal Hari
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.1829-1832
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    • 2016
  • Background: Breast cancer is the second most common malignancy among Nepalese women, accounting for 60% of the total cancer cases in females. Women diagnosed with germline mutations in BRCA1 like 185delAG, 1294del40 develop breast and/or ovarian cancer with a lifelong likelihood of up to 85% whereas presence of a mutation increases the risk for mutations to occur in other genes. The major objective of this study was to find the prevalence of these mutations in Nepalese cancer patients. Materials and Methods: This prospective study was carried out at two cancer hospitals in the Kathmandu valley over a period of 11 months. Irrespective of age group and stage of canceran appropriate amount of blood was withdrawn from 50 breast cancer patients and 20 controls. DNA was extracted manually and subjected to PCR using primers for 185delAG and 1294del40 mutations. PCR products were then digested with restriction enzyme (DdeII) followed by electrophoresis. Results: Prevalence of 185delAG in reference breast cancer patients was found to be 4/50 (8%) but no 1294del40 was apparent. Conclusions: Several mutations occurring in different exons of BRCA1 as well as mutations in other genes like BRCA2, for example, should also be taken in account.

Clinical Course and Results of Surgery for Chronic Subdural Hematomas in Patients on Drugs Affecting Hemostasis

  • Dziedzic, Tomasz Andrzej;Kunert, Przemyslaw;Marchel, Andrzej
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.60 no.2
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    • pp.232-238
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    • 2017
  • Objective : An apparent increase of use of drugs affecting hemostasis in our neurosurgical department since the 1990s has encouraged us to investigate whether these drugs influence the clinical course and results of surgery for chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH). Methods : This retrospective analysis included 178 patients admitted for CSDH from 2007 to 2011 who were divided into two groups : on drugs affecting hemostasis (40; 22%) and no bleeding disorders (138; 78%). Medications in the first group included oral anticoagulants (33; 82.5%), antiplatelets (5; 12.5%) and low molecular weight heparins (2; 5%). Results : The patients on drugs affecting hemostasis were older ($74.3{\pm}7.4$ vs. $68.4{\pm}14.8$; p-value 0.01) and the group without bleeding disorders had more head trauma history (61% vs. 38%, p-value 0.01). The groups did not differ in bilateral hematoma rates (25% vs. 20%, p-value=NS). At diagnosis, mean hematoma thickness was lower in patients on drugs affecting hemostasis ($18.7{\pm}7.4mm$ vs. $21.9{\pm}7.9mm$, p-value<0.01). Average stay of hospital was 1 day longer in patients on drugs affecting hemostasis ($11.7{\pm}4.1$ vs.$10.9{\pm}5.3$, p-value=NS) and was related to the necessity of bleeding disorder reversal. Mean neurological status at presentation was similar between the groups (p-value=NS) as was the likelihood of hematoma recurrence (p-value=NS). Glasgow Outcome Scale results were comparable. Conclusion : Patients on drugs affecting hemostasis are less often aware of a head trauma history, possibly suggesting a higher CSDH risk after minor trauma in this group. In these patients, smaller hematomas are symptomatic, probably due to faster hematoma formation. Drugs affecting hemostasis do not affect treatment results.

Principal Components Logistic Regression based on Robust Estimation (로버스트추정에 바탕을 둔 주성분로지스틱회귀)

  • Kim, Bu-Yong;Kahng, Myung-Wook;Jang, Hea-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.531-539
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    • 2009
  • Logistic regression is widely used as a datamining technique for the customer relationship management. The maximum likelihood estimator has highly inflated variance when multicollinearity exists among the regressors, and it is not robust against outliers. Thus we propose the robust principal components logistic regression to deal with both multicollinearity and outlier problem. A procedure is suggested for the selection of principal components, which is based on the condition index. When a condition index is larger than the cutoff value obtained from the model constructed on the basis of the conjoint analysis, the corresponding principal component is removed from the logistic model. In addition, we employ an algorithm for the robust estimation, which strives to dampen the effect of outliers by applying the appropriate weights and factors to the leverage points and vertical outliers identified by the V-mask type criterion. The Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that the proposed procedure yields higher rate of correct classification than the existing method.

Uncertainty Analysis on the Simulations of Runoff and Sediment Using SWAT-CUP (SWAT-CUP을 이용한 유출 및 유사모의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Minho;Heo, Tae-Young;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.681-690
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    • 2013
  • Watershed models have been increasingly used to support an integrated management of land and water, non-point source pollutants, and implement total daily maximum load policy. However, these models demand a great amount of input data, process parameters, a proper calibration, and sometimes result in significant uncertainty in the simulation results. For this reason, uncertainty analysis is necessary to minimize the risk in the use of the models for an important decision making. The objectives of this study were to evaluate three different uncertainty analysis algorithms (SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-Ver.2, GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, ParaSol: Parameter Solution) that used to analyze the sensitivity of the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) parameters and auto-calibration in a watershed, evaluate the uncertainties on the simulations of runoff and sediment load, and suggest alternatives to reduce the uncertainty. The results confirmed that the parameters which are most sensitive to runoff and sediment simulations were consistent in three algorithms although the order of importance is slightly different. In addition, there was no significant difference in the performance of auto-calibration results for runoff simulations. On the other hand, sediment calibration results showed less modeling efficiency compared to runoff simulations, which is probably due to the lack of measurement data. It is obvious that the parameter uncertainty in the sediment simulation is much grater than that in the runoff simulation. To decrease the uncertainty of SWAT simulations, it is recommended to estimate feasible ranges of model parameters, and obtain sufficient and reliable measurement data for the study site.

Socioeconomic Disparities in Osteoporosis Prevalence: Different Results in the Overall Korean Adult Population and Single-person Households

  • Kim, Jungmee;Lee, Joongyub;Shin, Ju-Young;Park, Byung-Joo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.84-93
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: The present study was conducted in order to examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and osteoporosis prevalence in Korea and to assess whether different associations are found in single-person households. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study was conducted using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, from 2008 to 2011. The study subjects were people aged ${\geq}50$ years with osteoporosis as defined by bone mineral density. Multivariate logistic models were used to estimate prevalence odds ratios (pORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Gender differences in the likelihood of osteoporosis were analyzed based on household income, education level, and residential area. Results: There were 8221 osteoporosis patients aged ${\geq}50$ years, of whom 927 lived in single-person households. There was a gender-specific association between osteoporosis prevalence and all three SES factors that we analyzed: income, education, and residential area. After adjusting for age, SES, and health behaviors, including body mass index (BMI), low household income was only significantly associated with osteoporosis in men, whereas education level had an inverse relationship with osteoporosis only in women (p=0.01, p<0.001, respectively). However, after controlling for age and BMI, rural residency was only associated with osteoporosis in women living in single-person households (pOR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.05 to 2.43). Conclusions: The Korean adult population showed a gender-specific relationship between SES and osteoporosis prevalence, with a different pattern found in single-person households.

Program for Estimating the Probability of Causation to Korean Radiation Workers with Cancer (국내 방사선작업종사자에게 발생한 암의 방사선 인과도를 평가하기 위한 인과확률 계산 프로그램)

  • Jeong, Mee-Seon;Jin, Young-Woo;Kim, Chong-Soon
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2004
  • The probability of causation(PC) is the measure to ascertain the likelihood that a particular cancer may be attributed to a particular prior exposure to radiation. Since the PC is involved in several uncertainties, it is desirable to use the confidence limit for the PC, not a point estimate for determining whether to award compensation. We developed the program for estimating the PC to Korean radiation workers with cancer, the so-called RHRI-PEPC, which is based on the most reasonable model for radiation cancer risk and recent Korean baseline data. RHRI-PEPC gives us the upper confidence limit for the PC after adjusting several uncertainties and therefore we can assess more reasonably the causality of radiation exposure for cancer occurred in Korean radiation workers.