• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Likelihood

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A customer credit Prediction Researched to Improve Credit Stability based on Artificial Intelligence

  • MUN, Ji-Hui;JUNG, Sang Woo
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2021
  • In this Paper, Since the 1990s, Korea's credit card industry has steadily developed. As a result, various problems have arisen, such as careless customer information management and loans to low-credit customers. This, in turn, had a high delinquency rate across the card industry and a negative impact on the economy. Therefore, in this paper, based on Azure, we analyze and predict the delinquency and delinquency periods of credit loans according to gender, own car, property, number of children, education level, marital status, and employment status through linear regression analysis and enhanced decision tree algorithm. These predictions can consequently reduce the likelihood of reckless credit lending and issuance of credit cards, reducing the number of bad creditors and reducing the risk of banks. In addition, after classifying and dividing the customer base based on the predicted result, it can be used as a basis for reducing the risk of credit loans by developing a credit product suitable for each customer. The predicted result through Azure showed that when predicting with Linear Regression and Boosted Decision Tree algorithm, the Boosted Decision Tree algorithm made more accurate prediction. In addition, we intend to increase the accuracy of the analysis by assigning a number to each data in the future and predicting again.

Development of the framework for quantitative cyber risk assessment in nuclear facilities

  • Kwang-Seop Son;Jae-Gu Song;Jung-Woon Lee
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.2034-2046
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    • 2023
  • Industrial control systems in nuclear facilities are facing increasing cyber threats due to the widespread use of information and communication equipment. To implement cyber security programs effectively through the RG 5.71, it is necessary to quantitatively assess cyber risks. However, this can be challenging due to limited historical data on threats and customized Critical Digital Assets (CDAs) in nuclear facilities. Previous works have focused on identifying data flows, the assets where the data is stored and processed, which means that the methods are heavily biased towards information security concerns. Additionally, in nuclear facilities, cyber threats need to be analyzed from a safety perspective. In this study, we use the system theoretic process analysis to identify system-level threat scenarios that could violate safety constraints. Instead of quantifying the likelihood of exploiting vulnerabilities, we quantify Security Control Measures (SCMs) against the identified threat scenarios. We classify the system and CDAs into four consequence-based classes, as presented in NEI 13-10, to analyze the adversary impact on CDAs. This allows for the ranking of identified threat scenarios according to the quantified SCMs. The proposed framework enables stakeholders to more effectively and accurately rank cyber risks, as well as establish security and response strategies.

The Significance of Contract Law for Efficient Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Procedure

  • Eungoo KANG
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This study aims to examine the role of contract law in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and to examine whether or not contract law is necessary in M&A. The study also discusses how contract law can be utilized in M&A, as well as some of the problems that arise from the use of contracts in this area. Research design, data, and methodology - To minimize bias and errors, this study used only peer-reviewed articles and book excluding internet news articles, conference papers, and dissertations. For a well-organized screen and selection process, the author conducted the extraction procedure thoroughly to eliminate some duplicated resources. Result: This study indicates that complex deals carry a high risk but also have the potential to yield substantial revenue for stakeholders. Thus, contract law is essential to the success of M&A because it helps to define the (1) terms of the transaction, (2) reduces risk, (3) offers legal safeguards, and ensures that the (4) agreement is enforced. Conclusion - This study concludes that an understanding of contract law is essential to the profitable merging of two businesses. The application of contract law provides a mechanism for enforcing the agreement, which can increase the likelihood that the stipulations of the M&A will be satisfied.

[Reivew]Prediction of Cervical Cancer Risk from Taking Hormone Contraceptivese

  • Su jeong RU;Kyung-A KIM;Myung-Ae CHUNG;Min Soo KANG
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.25-29
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    • 2024
  • In this study, research was conducted to predict the probability of cervical cancer occurrence associated with the use of hormonal contraceptives. Cervical cancer is influenced by various environmental factors; however, the human papillomavirus (HPV) is detected in 99% of cases, making it the primary attributed cause. Additionally, although cervical cancer ranks 10th in overall female cancer incidence, it is nearly 100% preventable among known cancers. Early-stage cervical cancer typically presents no symptoms but can be detected early through regular screening. Therefore, routine tests, including cytology, should be conducted annually, as early detection significantly improves the chances of successful treatment. Thus, we employed artificial intelligence technology to forecast the likelihood of developing cervical cancer. We utilized the logistic regression algorithm, a predictive model, through Microsoft Azure. The classification model yielded an accuracy of 80.8%, a precision of 80.2%, a recall rate of 99.0%, and an F1 score of 88.6%. These results indicate that the use of hormonal contraceptives is associated with an increased risk of cervical cancer. Further development of the artificial intelligence program, as studied here, holds promise for reducing mortality rates attributable to cervical cancer.

Analysis of the risk factors of acute kidney injury after total hip or knee replacement surgery

  • Lee, Yoo Jin;Park, Bong Soo;Park, Sihyung;Park, Jin Han;Kim, Il Hwan;Ko, Junghae;Kim, Yang Wook
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.136-141
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    • 2021
  • Background: Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI), which increases the risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality, poses a major concern to surgeons. We conducted this study to analyze the risk factors associated with the occurrence of AKI after orthopedic surgery. Methods: This was a retrospective study that included 351 patients who underwent total hip or knee replacement surgery at Inje University Haeundae Paik Hospital between January 2012 and December 2016. Results: AKI occurred in 13 (3.7%) of the 351 patients. The patients' preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 66.66 ±34.02 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the AKI group and 78.07±21.23 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the non-AKI group. The hemoglobin levels were 11.21±1.65 g/dL in the AKI group and 12.39±1.52 g/dL in the non-AKI group. Hemoglobin level was related to increased risk of AKI (odds ratio [OR], 0.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.02-0.68; p=0.016). Administration of crystalloid or colloid fluid alone and the perioperative amount of fluid did not show any significant relationship with AKI. Further analysis of the changes in eGFR was performed using a cutoff value of 7.54. The changes in eGFR were significantly related to decreased risk of AKI (OR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61-0.89; p=0.002). Conclusion: Renal function should be monitored closely after orthopedic surgery if patients have chronic kidney disease and low hemoglobin level. Predicting the likelihood of AKI occurrence, early treatment of high-risk patients, and monitoring perioperative laboratory test results, including eGFR, will help improve patient prognosis.

Establishment of Crowd Management Safety Measures Based on Crowd Density Risk Simulation (군중 밀집 위험도 시뮬레이션 기반의 인파 관리 안전대책 수립)

  • Hyuncheol Kim;Hyungjun Im;Seunghyun Lee;Youngbeom Ju;Soonjo Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.96-103
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    • 2023
  • Generally, human stampedes and crowd collapses occur when people press against each other, causing falls that may result in death or injury. Particularly, crowd accidents have become increasingly common since the 1990s, with an average of 380 deaths annually. For instance, in Korea, a stampede occurred during the Itaewon Halloween festival on October 29, 2022, when several people crowded onto a narrow, downhill road, which was 45 meters long and between 3.2 and 4 meters wide. Precisely, this stampede was primarily due to the excessive number of people relative to the road size. Essentially, stampedes can occur anywhere and at any time, not just at events, but also in other places where large crowds gather. More specifically, the likelihood of accidents increases when the crowd density exceeds a turbulence threshold of 5-6 /m2. Meanwhile, festivals and events, which have become more frequent and are promoted through social media, garner people from near and far to a specific location. Besides, as cities grow, the number of people gathering in one place increases. While stampedes are rare, their impact is significant, and the uncertainty associated with them is high. Currently, there is no scientific system to analyze the risk of stampedes due to crowd concentration. Consequently, to prevent such accidents, it is essential to prepare for crowd disasters that reflect social changes and regional characteristics. Hence, this study proposes using digital topographic maps and crowd-density risk simulations to develop a 3D model of the region. Specifically, the crowd density simulation allows for an analysis of the density of people walking along specific paths, which enables the prediction of danger areas and the risk of crowding. By using the simulation method in this study, it is anticipated that safety measures can be rationally established for specific situations, such as local festivals, and preparations may be made for crowd accidents in downtown areas.

A Framework for Continuous Security Management through Online Risk Likelihood Assessment (온라인 위험 가능성 평가를 통한 지속적인 보안관리 체계)

  • Joo, Sung-Jin;Kim, Jong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institutes of Information Security and Cryptology Conference
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    • 2002.11a
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    • pp.544-547
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    • 2002
  • 최근 들어 인적 보안위험과 같이 단기간에 변화가 심한 위험이 증가하고 있어 이에 대한 관리가 요구되고 있다. 그러나, 기존 위험평가만으로는 이러한 보안위험에 대한 적절한 평가 및 관리가 어려우므로 이에 대한 보완이 필요하다. 이에 기존에 적용된 보안관리 도구에 의해 생성되는 온라인 데이터를 이용하여, 이러한 위험에 대한 평가를 지속적으로 실시할 수 있는 보안관리 체계를 제안한다. 이를 통해 조직내 보안위험 수준을 감내할 수 있는 수준으로 유지할 수 있도록 한다.

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What Causes Technology Commercialization to Succeed or Fail after Transfer from Public Research Organizations

  • Kim, Yong-Jeong;Shin, Seowon Joseph
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.23-44
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    • 2017
  • This study explores how the technology commercialization process leads to either success or failure after transfer from PROs to SMEs by conducting a binomial logistic regression analysis. We found that the more additional development a firm implements on the transferred technology, the more likely the commercialization is to fail. The higher number of alternative technology and bigger market risk are associated with a greater likelihood of failure. On the other hand, the existence of complementary technology, the degree of cooperation with the technology provider, the size of the target market, the willingness of the CEO, and the funding availability are known to have positive effects on the success of technology commercialization. In addition, the case studies we conducted from the sample companies demonstrated that "market uncertainty," "technological issues depending on the technology-specific characteristics," and "a lack of funding capability" are some of the causes for failure of technology commercialization.

Adolescents' health behaviors and obesity: Does race affect this epidemic?

  • Dodor, Bernice A.;Shelley, Mack C.;Hausafus, Cheryl O.
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.4 no.6
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    • pp.528-534
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    • 2010
  • This study explores the influence of health behaviors and individual attributes on adolescent overweight and obesity using data from Wave II (Add Health). Structural equation model/ path analysis using maximum likelihood estimation was utilized to analyze the relationships of health behaviors and attributes with obesity. Results of the model reveal that the causal paths (adolescents' attributes and health behaviors) for overweight and obesity were different for African American and Caucasian adolescents. Generally, African Americans were more susceptible to overweight and obesity than Caucasians. Although increasing levels of vigorous physical activities lowers the risk for obesity among African American and Caucasian adolescents alike, low family SES and being sedentary were associated with overweight and obesity among Caucasians. No significant associations were found among African Americans. Increased hours of sleep at night relate positively with obesity among African Americans. These findings suggest important elements in the consideration of race in developing effective intervention and prevention approaches for curbing the obesity epidemic among U.S. adolescents.

Peste des petits ruminants in Pakistan; past, present and future perspectives

  • Abubakar, Muhammad;Irfan, Muhammad;Manzoor, Shumaila
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.57 no.11
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    • pp.32.1-32.8
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    • 2015
  • Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is considered to be one of the main constraints to enhancing the productivity of goats and sheep in regions where it is present and becoming endemic. PPR was recognized in Pakistan in early 1990s but got importance during the Participatory Disease Surveillance (PDS) of Rinderpest Eradication Campaign. Lot of research work has been initiated during last decade towards disease epidemiology, risk factor recognition, laboratory diagnosis, vaccination and demonstration of control strategies. Although there are ongoing projects working towards the progressive control of the disease in country yet there is need to have a national level control program for PPR. Also there is need to have comprehensive social economic surveys, disease hot spot recognition and identification of role of other species in disease transmission. With combined efforts of local and national authorities and political will, there is high likelihood that this devastating disease can be controlled and eventually eradicated in near future.