• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1994.02a
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• pp.440-449
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• 1994

Current risk assessment practices largely reflect the need for a consistent set of relatively rapid, first-cut procedures to assess 'plausible upper limits' of various risks. These practices have important roles to play in 1) screening candidate hazards for initial attention and 2) directing attention to cases where moderate-cost measures to control exposures are likely to be warranted, in the absence of further extensive (and expensive) data gathering and analysis. A problem with the current practices, however, is that they have led assessors to do a generally poor job of analyzing and expressing uncertainties, fostering 'One-Number Disease' (in which everything from one's social policy position on risk acceptance to one's technical judgment on the likelihood of different cancer dose-response relationships is rolled into a single quantity). At least for analyses that involve relatively important decisions for society (both relatively large potential health risks and relatively large potential economic costs or other disruptions), we can and should at least go one further step - and that is to assess and convey both a central tendency estimate of exposure and risk as well as our more conventional 'conservative' upper-confidence-limit values. To accomplish this, more sophisticated efforts are needed to appropriately represent the likely effects of various sources of uncertainty along the casual chain from the release of toxicants to the production of adverse effects. When the effects of individual sources of uncertainty are assessed (and any important interactions included), Monte Carlo simulation procedures can be used to produce an overall analysis of uncertainties and to highlight areas where uncertainties might be appreciably reduced by further study. Beyond the information yielded by such analyses for decision-making in a few important cases, the value of doing several exemplary risk assessments in. this way is that a set of benchmarks can be defined that will help calibrate the assumptions used in the larger number of risk assessments that must be done by 'default' procedures.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.95-100
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• 2016

Background: Survival time of lymphoma patients can be estimated with the help of microarray technology. In this study, with the use of iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, survival time of Mantle Cell Lymphoma patients (MCL) was estimated and in reference to the findings, patients were divided into two high-risk and low-risk groups. Materials and Methods: In this study, gene expression data of MCL patients were used in order to select a subset of genes for survival analysis with microarray data, using the iterative BMA method. To evaluate the performance of the method, patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk based on their scores. Performance prediction was investigated using the log-rank test. The bioconductor package "iterativeBMAsurv" was applied with R statistical software for classification and survival analysis. Results: In this study, 25 genes associated with survival for MCL patients were identified across 132 selected models. The maximum likelihood estimate coefficients of the selected genes and the posterior probabilities of the selected models were obtained from training data. Using this method, patients could be separated into high-risk and low-risk groups with high significance (p<0.001). Conclusions: The iterative BMA algorithm has high precision and ability for survival analysis. This method is capable of identifying a few predictive variables associated with survival, among many variables in a set of microarray data. Therefore, it can be used as a low-cost diagnostic tool in clinical research.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.315-322
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• 2016

Recently, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has amended the law to Design for Safety in working design stage of construction work. There should be informed the disaster likelihood and severity of unit-works to decide risk of unit-works in Design for Safety. Therefore, the construction disaster data of ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$ corporation were classified as 24 unit-works and the disaster likelihood and severity of unit works were analyzed in this study. The safety management level of unit-works which based on analysis data was suggested 3 groups; special management and emphasis management, regular management. The results of this study can be used as basic information to perform Design for Safety in construction. And this information will be able to reduce the disaster.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.11
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• pp.4705-4710
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• 2015

Background: Though a large proportion of cancer survivors are assumed to be commonly affected by sleep disturbance, few studies have focused on short sleep problems and its correlates among Korean cancer survivors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of short sleep in adult cancer survivors from a nationwide population-based sample and to identify risk factors for short sleep duration. Materials and Methods: Based on the fourth and fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (2007-2012), 1,045 cancer survivors and 33,929 non-cancer controls were analyzed. The prevalence of short sleep was compared between these two groups. Associations between short sleep and its correlates were evaluated using multiple logistic regression among cancer survivors: odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were estimated after adjusting for sociodemographic factors, lifestyle factors, psychological conditions, and cancer-related factors. Results: About 8.1% of cancer survivors slept for less than 5 hours per day (6.2% men and 9.3% women), whereas this was the case for only 3.7% of non-cancer controls. Cancer survivors who had the lowest household income level showed a significantly higher likelihood for short sleep (adjusted OR 2.82, 95%CI 1.06-7.54). Self-reported poor health and depressive symptoms were found to be associated with significantly increased likelihood for short sleep in cancer survivors (adjusted OR 3.60, 95%CI 1.40-9.26 and adjusted OR 2.00, 95%CI 1.17-3.42). Gastric cancer survivors had a 3.97-fold increased risk for short sleep (95%CI 1.60-9.90). Conclusions: The prevalence of short sleep occurs at a high rate among the Korean cancer survivors, which may indicate a poorer quality of life and a higher risk of future complications in survivorship. Targeted interventions that can assist cancer survivors to cope with sleep disturbances as well as ensuring psychological stability are warranted to reduce the latent disease burden.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.662-672
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• 2019

This study involved a secondary analysis of 2016 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data to identify the relations between metabolic syndrome, physical activity, and dietary patterns in Korean adults. The ${\chi}^2$-test, t-test, and logistic regression analysis of complex samples were conducted on the data of 3,352 subjects aged 19 to 64 years with metabolic syndrome. The prevalences of metabolic syndrome among men and women were 29.7% and 16.7%, respectively. In men, the high physical activity group showed a 0.8-fold increase in the likelihood of metabolic syndrome (OR=0.8, p=.038), and higher fat intake increased the risk of metabolic syndrome 0.98-fold (OR=0.98, p=.007). In women, the high physical activity group showed a 0.7-fold increase in the likelihood of metabolic syndrome (OR=0.71, p=.034), higher carbohydrate intake increased the risk of metabolic syndrome by 1.03-fold (OR=1.03, p<.001), and that higher protein and fat intakes reduced the risk by 0.96-fold (OR=0.96, p=.009) and 0.95-fold (OR=0.95, p<.001), respectively. The study shows that to meet the challenge presented by the increasing prevalence of metabolic syndrome, efforts are needed to screen for adults at risk of the metabolic syndrome by regular physical examination and to develop and provide intervention programs that involve regular high intensity physical activity and controlled carbohydrate, protein, and fat intakes.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.549-557
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• 2013

An flood inundation map is able to convey spatial distribution of inundation to a decision maker for flood risk management. A roughness coefficient with unclear values and a discharge obtained from the stage-discharge rating equation are key sources of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping by using a hydraulic model. Also, the uncertainty analysis needs an observation for the flood inundation, and satellite images is useful to obtain spatial distribution of flood. Accordingly, the objective of this study is to quantify uncertainty arising roughness and discharge in flood inundation mapping by using a hydraulic model and a satellite image. To perform this, flood inundations were simulated by HEC-RAS and terrain analysis, and ISODATA (Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis) was used to classify waterbody from Landsat 5TM imagery. The classified waterbody was used as an observation to calculate F-statistic (likelihood measure) in GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation). The results from GLUE show that flood inundation areas are 74.59 $km^2$ for lower 5 % uncertainty bound and 151.95 $km^2$ for upper 95% uncertainty bound, respectively. The quantification of uncertainty in flood inundation mapping will play a significant role in realizing the efficient flood risk management.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.8 s.169
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• pp.659-668
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• 2006

The uncertainty of the risk of failure of hydraulic structures can be determined by estimating the variance of the risk of failure based on the methods of moments, probability weighted moments, and maximum likelihood assuming that the underlying model is the Gumbel distribution. In this paper, the variance of the risk of failure was derived. Monte Carlo simulation was peformed to verify the characteristics of the derived formulas for various sample size, design life, nonexceedance probability, and variation coefficient. As the results, PWM showed the smallest relative bias and root mean square error than the others while ML showed the smallest ones for relatively large sample siBes regardless of design life and nonexceedance probability. Also, it was found that variation coefficient does not effect on the relative bias and relative root mean square error.

• Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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• v.60 no.11
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• pp.353-358
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• 2017

Purpose: To develop and evaluate a simple screening tool to assess hearing loss in newborns. A derived score was compared with the standard clinical practice tool. Methods: This cohort study was designed to screen the hearing of newborns using transiently evoked otoacoustic emission and auditory brain stem response, and to determine the risk factors associated with hearing loss of newborns in 3 tertiary hospitals in Northern Thailand. Data were prospectively collected from November 1, 2010 to May 31, 2012. To develop the risk score, clinical-risk indicators were measured by Poisson risk regression. The regression coefficients were transformed into item scores dividing each regression-coefficient with the smallest coefficient in the model, rounding the number to its nearest integer, and adding up to a total score. Results: Five clinical risk factors (Craniofacial anomaly, Ototoxicity, Birth weight, family history [Relative] of congenital sensorineural hearing loss, and Apgar score) were included in our COBRA score. The screening tool detected, by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, more than 80% of existing hearing loss. The positive-likelihood ratio of hearing loss in patients with scores of 4, 6, and 8 were 25.21 (95% confidence interval [CI], 14.69-43.26), 58.52 (95% CI, 36.26-94.44), and 51.56 (95% CI, 33.74-78.82), respectively. This result was similar to the standard tool (The Joint Committee on Infant Hearing) of 26.72 (95% CI, 20.59-34.66). Conclusion: A simple screening tool of five predictors provides good prediction indices for newborn hearing loss, which may motivate parents to bring children for further appropriate testing and investigations.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.79-86
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• 2021

On the construction site, there exists frequently a high likelihood that a fire accident can lead to a large-scale disaster. In the previous studies, the diverse outcomes have been focused on the improvement of relative statutes and tried to realize the suppression and confrontation of the fire accidents. In this study, the limitations on the site were identified through prior research reviews, and the fire risk assessment checklist was proposed through the analysis of the massive accident cases. The checklist was divided into the prevention and minimization steps and developed into 16 categories of total risk factors. According to the results from the cases applied in this study, if the installation status is checked, such as removing combustibles, and broadcasting facilities for evacuation are installed, it is expected that the casualties will be minimized or zeroed. By developing a fire risk assessment checklist, this study provides the implications of the theoretical and realistic fire accident prevention, and supports the ways to minimize the damage resulted from the fire accidents on construction sites. In the further, deriving universe and common items about repeated occurrences of a work type will be needed as a subsequent research.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• v.21 no.11
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• pp.1220-1229
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• 2020

Objective: Stereotactic vacuum-assisted breast biopsy (VABB) is considered a reliable alternative to surgical biopsy for suspicious calcifications. In most cases, the management of flat epithelial atypia (FEA) and atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) after VABB with residual calcifications requires surgical excision. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of pathology of non-calcified specimens on the underestimation of malignancy. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 1147 consecutive cases of stereotactic VABB of suspicious calcifications without mass from January 2010 to December 2016 and identified 46 (4.0%) FEA and 52 (4.5%) ADH cases that were surgically excised for the retrieval of residual calcifications. Mammographic features and pathology of the calcified and non-calcified specimens were reviewed. Results: Seventeen specimens (17.3%) were upgraded to malignancy. Mammographic features associated with the underestimation of malignancy were calcification extent (> 34.5 mm: odds ratio = 6.059, p = 0.026). According to the pathology of calcified versus non-calcified specimens, four risk groups were identified: Group A (ADH vs. high-risk lesions), Group B (ADH vs. non-high-risk lesions), Group C (FEA vs. high-risk lesions), and Group D (FEA vs. non-high-risk lesions). The lowest underestimation rate was observed in Group D (Group A vs. Group B vs. Group C vs. Group D: 35.0% vs. 20.0% vs. 15.0% vs. 3.6%, p = 0.041, respectively). Conclusion: Considering that the calcification extent and pathology of non-calcified specimens may be beneficial in determining the likelihood of malignancy underestimation, excision after FEA or ADH diagnosis by VABB is required, except for the diagnoses of FEA coexisting without atypia lesions in non-calcified specimens.