• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.239-245
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• 1997

By assuming a general progressive Type-II censored sample, we propose the minimum risk estimator (MRE) and the approximate maximum likelihood estimator (AMLE) of the scale parameter of the one-parameter exponential distribution. An example is given to illustrate the methods of estimation discussed in this paper.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.89-99
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• 2012

Urban regeneration projects tingeing the shape of mixed-use development, due to the nature of the business, involve risk factors such as protracted business conflict among participations, subjects, complex approval and permission procedure, frequent policy changes, etc. Therefore, systematic risk management is needed to effectively manage the numerous risk factors that may occur during the process course of project. However, risk management of large and complex development projects such as urban regeneration projects is in the introduction stage yet and somewhat one time risk management plan has been established. Therefore, in this study, in order to systematic risk management of urban regeneration projects inhered numerous risk factors, risk factors for urban regeneration projects through preceding studies and case studies were presented. Also risk factors are classified in accordance with business propulsion phase, by estimating the importance for these, step by step emphasis on managed subjects of risk management was proposed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2010.10a
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• pp.180-181
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• 2010

An estimation algorithm of collision risk among multiple ships has been developed in order to reduce human error and prevent collision accidents. The algorithm is designed to calculate the collision risk among ships based on Fuzzy theory by using AIS data as traffic information. In this paper, to validate the algorithm, the AIS data of actual collision accident, which occurred between a product carrier and a cargo carrier in Busan harbor in 2009 are collected. The replay simulation is carried out on the actual AIS data and the collision risk is calculated in real time. In this paper, the features of the estimation algorithm of collision risk and the results of replay simulation based on AIS data of actual collision accident are discussed.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.34 no.10
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• pp.727-733
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• 2010

An estimation algorithm of collision risk among multiple ships has been developed in order to reduce human error and prevent collision accidents. The algorithm is designed to calculate the collision risk among ships based on Fuzzy theory by using AIS data as traffic information. In this paper, to validate the algorithm, the AIS data of actual collision accident, which occurred between a product carrier and a cargo carrier in Busan harbor in 2009 are collected. The replay simulation is carried out on the actual AIS data and the collision risk is calculated in real time. In this paper, the features of the estimation algorithm of collision risk and the results of replay simulation based on AIS data of actual collision accident are discussed.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.71-99
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• 2010

The concept of CoVaR introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009) is a useful tool to measure the risk spillover effect. It can capture the risk contribution of each institution to overall systemic risk. While Adrian and Brunnermeier rely on the quantile regression method in the estimation of CoVaR, we propose a new estimation method using parametric distribution functions such as bivariate normal and $S_U$-normal distribution functions. Based on our estimates of CoVaR for Korean banking industry, we investigate the practical usefulness of CoVaR for a systemic risk measure, and compare the estimation performance of each model. Empirical results show that bank makes a positive contribution to system risk. We also find that quantile regression and normal distribution models tend to considerably underestimate the CoVaR (in absolute value) compared to $S_U$-normal distribution model, and this underestimation becomes serious when the crisis in a financial system is assumed.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.577-587
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• 2018

The quantitative assessment of the seismic collapse risk of a structure requires the usage of an optimal intensity measure (IM) which can adequately characterise the severity of the ground motion. Research suggests that the average spectral acceleration ($Sa_{avg}$) may be an efficient and sufficient alternate IM as compared to the more traditional first mode spectral acceleration, $Sa(T_1)$, particularly during seismic collapse risk estimation. This study primarily presents a comparative evaluation of the sufficiency of the average spectral acceleration with respect to ground motion duration, and secondarily assesses the impact of ground motion duration on collapse risk estimation. By assembling a suite of 100 historical ground motions, incremental dynamic analysis of 60 different inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDF) oscillators with varying periods and ductility capacities were analysed, and collapse risk estimates obtained. Linear regression models are used to comparatively quantify the sufficiency of $Sa_{avg}$ and $Sa(T_1)$ using four significant duration metrics. Results suggests that an improved sufficiency may exist for $Sa_{avg}$ when the period of the SDF system increases, particularly beyond 0.5, as compare to $Sa(T_1)$. In reference to the ground motion duration measures, results indicated that the sufficiency of $Sa_{avg}$ is more sensitive to significant duration definitions that consider almost the full wave train of an accelerogram ($SD_{a5-95}$ and $SD_{v5-95}$). In order to obtain a reduced variability of the collapse risk estimate, the 5-95% significant duration metric defined using the Arias integral ($SD_{a5-95}$) should be used for seismic collapse risk estimation in conjunction with $Sa_{avg}$.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2008.02a
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• pp.645-648
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• 2008

This study provides considerations for quantitative risk assessment of landslide on GIS technology. It shows how the landslide possibility analysis is linked by GIS modeling to provide loss estimation tools for landslide hazards in support of socio-economic loss reduction efforts. Those risk assessment results can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy making for the landslide damage mitigation.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.47 no.5
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• pp.432-445
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• 2021

Background: The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals' Targeted Risk Assessment (ECETOC TRA) tool has been recognized by EU REACH as a preferred approach for calculating worker health risks from chemicals. Objectives: The applicability of the ECETOC TRA to occupational exposure estimation from industrial uses of methanol was studied by inputting surveyed and varied parameters for TRA estimation as well as through comparison with measured data. Methods: Information on uses of methanol was collected from seven working environment monitoring reports along with the measured exposure data. Input parameters for TRA estimation such as operating conditions (OCs), risk management measures (RMMs) and process categories (PROCs) were surveyed. To compare with measured exposures, parameters from the surveyed conditions of ventilation but no use of respiratory protection were applied. Results: PROCs 4, 5, 8a, 10, and 15 were assigned to ten uses of methanol. The uses include as a solvent for manufacturing sun cream, surfactants, dyestuffs, films and adhesives. Methanol was also used as a component in a release agent, hardening media and mold wash for cast products as well as a component of hard-coating solution and a viscosity-controlling agent for manufacturing glass lenses. PROC 8a and PROC 10 of a cast product manufacturer without LEV (local exhaust ventilation) and general ventilation as well as no respiratory protection resulted in the highest exposure to methanol. Assuming the identical worst OCs and RMMs for all uses, exposures from PROC 5, 8a, and 10 were the same and the highest followed by PROC 4 and 15. The estimation resulted in higher exposures in nine uses except one use where measured exposure approximated exposures without RMMs. Conclusions: The role of ECETOC TRA as a conservative exposure assessment tool was confirmed by comparison with measured data. Moreover, it can guide which RMMs should be applied for the safe use of methanol.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.93-104
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• 2008

A successful fire risk assessment is depends on identification of risk, the analytical process of potential risk, on estimation of likelihood and the width and depth of consequence. Take the influence on enterprise into consideration, Fire risk assessment could carry out along the evaluation of the risk importance, the risk level and the risk acceptance. A large part of the limitation of choosing the risk assessment techniques impose restrictions on expense and time. If it is unnecessary high level risk assessment or Probabilistic Risk Assessment of buildings, in compliance with the Relative Ranking Method, Fire risk indexing and assessing is possible. As working-level technique, AHP method is useful with practical technique.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.167-179
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• 2016

The safety of SOC facilities is constantly under threat by the globally increasing abnormal climate. Responding to disasters requires prompt decision-making such as suggesting evacuation paths. For doing so, spatio-temporal information with convergence of disaster information and SOC facility information must be utilized. Such information is being collected separately by the government or related organizations, but not collectively. The collective control of the separately collected disaster information and the generation of SOC facility safety and damage information are required for prompt disaster response. Also, as disaster information requires spatio-temporal convergence in its nature, the construction of an inventory that integrates related information and assists disaster response decision-making is required. A plan to construct a facility importance, risk, and damage estimation inventory for assisting prompt disaster response decision-making is suggested in this study. Through this study, the disaster and SOC facility-related data, which are being managed separately, can be collected and standardized. The integrated information required for the estimation of facility importance, risk, and damage can be provided. The suggested system is expected to be used as a decision-making tool for proactive disaster response.