• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Estimation

검색결과 959건 처리시간 0.023초

위험 대상에 대한 충격 편향은 탈 편향 조작에 의해 감소하는가? (Does a Debiasing Manipulation Reduce Over-estimation of Emotional Reaction to Risky Objects?)

  • 윤지원;이영애
    • 인지과학
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2011
  • 사람들은 이사, 투표, 시험, 부상, 차 구입과 같은 미래의 사건에 대한 자신의 정서 반응을 과도하게 예측한다. 충격 편향(impact bias)란 자신의 정서 반응이 강하게 오래 계속될 것으로 예상하는 것이다. 본 연구는 원자력 발전소, 유전자조작식품, 그리고 휴대폰과 같은 위험 대상에 대해 충격 편향이 관찰되는지, 그리고 관찰된다면 이 편향을 감소시키는 조작의 효과가 있는지를 검토하였다. 참여자들은 위험 대상에 대해서 현재보다 가까운 미래인 1주일 후 충격 편향을 가장 크게 보였다. 적응 과제와 탈초점 과제를 사용한 결과, 탈초점 조작이 위험 대상들에 대한 충격 편향을 감소시켰다. 본 연구의 결과들을 선행 연구들과 관련해서 논하였다.

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실내 방향제 사용에 의한 유해 가스상 오염물질 배출 산정 및 노출 평가 (Emission Estimation and Exposure to Hazardous Gaseous Pollutants Associated with Use of Air Fresheners Indoors)

  • 조완근;신승호;권기동;이종효
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2009
  • This study quantitatively investigated the emissions of indoor air pollutants associated with the utilization of air fresheners indoors, and evaluated individual exposure to five specified indoor air pollutants, which were chosen on the basis of selection criteria. An electrically-polished stainless steel chamber (50L) was employed to achieve this purpose. Test air fresheners were selected through three steps: first, on the basis of market sales; second, on the basis on a preliminary head-space study; and lastly, on the basis of emissions of toxic compounds (benzene, ethyl benzene, limonene, toluene, and xylene). The empirical mathematical model fitted well with the time-series concentrations in the environmental chamber (in most cases, determination coefficient, $R^2{\gtrsim}$0.9), thereby suggesting that the empirical model was suitable for testing emissions. The concentration equilibrium appeared 180 min after the introduction of sample air fresheners into the chamber. Both the chamber concentrations of emission rates or factors varied greatly according to air freshener type. It is noteworthy that although benzene, ethyl benzene, toluene, and xylene were emitted from all test air fresheners, their exposure levels were not significant enough to result in any significant health risk. However, certain type of air fresheners were observed to emit significant amount of limonene, which is potentially reactive with ozone to generate secondary pollutants with oxidants such as ozone, hydroxyl radicals, and nitrogen oxides. The exposure levels to limonene associated with the utilization of three air fresheners were estimated to be 13 to 175 times higher than that of other air fresheners. This information can help consumers to select low-pollutant-emitting air fresheners.

다변량 자료에서 위치모수에 대한 로버스트 검정 (A Robust Test for Location Parameters in Multivariate Data)

  • 소선하;이동희;정병철
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제22권6호
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    • pp.1355-1364
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    • 2009
  • 본 논문에서는 다변량 자료의 위치모수에 대한 로버스트 검정 방법으로 유사등변성과 고붕괴성을 만족하는 MVE와 MCD 추정량에 근거한 로버스트 검정방법을 제안하였다. 일반적으로 이들 추정방법은 낮은 효율성으로 인하여 통계적 추론보다는 잠재적 이상치의 발견과 같은 탐색적분석에서 사용된다. 우리는 검정력을 높이기 위하여 MVE와 MCD 추정량에 근거한 일단계 재가중절차를 사용했는데, 가중치 선정과 관련된 임계값을 조절함으로써 현실적으로 사용가능한 높은 효율성과 정확성을 갖춘 검정방법을 제시하였다. 모의실험 결과 본 연구에서 제안한 검정법은 모분포에 관계없이 모두 명목유의수준을 제대로 유지하고 검정력도 높게 나타났으며, 이상치를 포함하고 있는 사례를 이용하여 실제로 모평균에 대한 가설검정을 수행한 결과 기존 방법과는 달리 영향을 받지 않았다.

The Magnitude of Mortality from Ischemic Heart Disease Attributed to Occupational Factors in Korea - Attributable Fraction Estimation Using Meta-analysis

  • Ha, Jae-Hyeok;Kim, Soo-Geun;Paek, Do-Myung;Park, Jung-Sun
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.70-82
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    • 2011
  • Objectives: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a major cause of death in Korea and known to result from several occupational factors. This study attempted to estimate the current magnitude of IHD mortality due to occupational factors in Korea. Methods: After selecting occupational risk factors by literature investigation, we calculated attributable fractions (AFs) from relative risks and exposure data for each factor. Relative risks were estimated using meta-analysis based on published research. Exposure data were collected from the 2006 Survey of Korean Working Conditions. Finally, we estimated 2006 occupation-related IHD mortality. Results: For the factors considered, we estimated the following relative risks: noise 1.06, environmental tobacco smoke 1.19 (men) and 1.22 (women), shift work 1.12, and low job control 1.15 (men) and 1.08 (women). Combined AFs of those factors in the IHD were estimated at 9.29% (0.3-18.51%) in men and 5.78% (-7.05-19.15%) in women. Based on these fractions, Korea's 2006 death toll from occupational IHD between the age of 15 and 69 was calculated at 353 in men (total 3,804) and 72 in women (total 1,246). Conclusion: We estimated occupational IHD mortality of Korea with updated data and more relevant evidence. Despite the efforts to obtain reliable estimates, there were many assumptions and limitations that must be overcome. Future research based on more precise design and reliable evidence is required for more accurate estimates.

Ecotoxicity Estimation of Hazardous Air Pollutants Emitted from Semiconductor Manufacturing Processes Utilizing QSAR

  • Park, Hyung-Geun;Yeo, Min-Kyeong
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • 제34권12호
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    • pp.3755-3761
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to assess the ecological risk of the hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted in the semiconductor manufacturing processes in Korea by using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR, EPA, US, EPI $Suite^{TM}$ 4.1). Owing to the absence of environmental standards of hazardous air pollutants in the semiconductor manufacturing processes in Korea, 18 HAPs in the semiconductor field included in both the US EPA NESHAPs and the hazardous air pollutant list of Ministry of Environment in Korea were selected. As a results 8 chemicals (44.4%) of the selected 18 HAPs were VOCs. Cyanides (cyanides) and ethylene oxides (epoxy resins), and tetrachloro-ethylene (aliphatic compounds, halides) showed long half-lives. Cyanide HAPs especially had the highest half-life with the estimated value of 356.533 days. Nickel compounds (heavy metal compounds) possessed the highest water solubility followed by acetaldehyde (aldehyde compounds), ethylene oxides, and 1,4-dioxanes. The halides, including tetrachloro-ethylenes, carbon tetra-chlorides, benzene (aromatic compounds), and lead (heavy metals), are estimated to take the longest time for biodegradation. Tetrachloroethylene, with the acute toxicity end point of 3.685-7.033 mg/L, was assessed to be the most highly toxic substance among the 18 HAPs. However, considering the absence of the HAPs in the common category of log $K_{ow}{\geq}4$and $BCF{\geq}500$, which indicates the standard of bioconcentration potentials, potentials of the bioconcentration are considered to be low.

분광 유사도 커널을 이용한 하이퍼스펙트럴 영상의 Support Vector Machine(SVM) 분류 (Support Vector Machine Classification of Hyperspectral Image using Spectral Similarity Kernel)

  • 최재완;변영기;김용일;유기윤
    • 대한공간정보학회지
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    • 제14권4호통권38호
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2006
  • 통계학습이론에 기반하고 있는 Support Vector Machine(SVM)은 구조적 위험 최소화원리를 바탕으로 하는 학습 알고리즘이다. 일반적으로SVM은 비선형 경계를 결정하고 자료를 분류하기 위해서 커널(kernel)을 사용한다. 그러나 기존의 커널들은 두 벡터간의 내적이나 거리차를 이용하여 유사도를 측정하기 때문에 하이퍼스펙트럴 영상분류에 효과적으로 적용될 수 없다. 본 논문에서는 이를 해결하기 위해서 분광유사도커널(Spectral similarity kernel)을 제안한다. 분광유사도 커널은 두 벡터의 거리차와 각 차이를 모두 계산하는 지역적 커널로 하이퍼스펙트럴 영상의 분광특성을 효과적으로 고려할 수 있다. 이를 검증하기 위해서 Hyperion 영상에 polynomial kernel, RBF kernel을 사용한 SVM 분류기와 분광유사도 커널을 사용한 SVM 분류기를 적용하여 토지피복분류를 시행하였다. 분류결과를 통해서 분광유사도 커널을 사용한 SVM 분류기가 정량적, 공간적으로 가장 우수한 결과를 보임을 확인하였다.

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Single Particle Irradiation System to Cell (SPICE) at NIRS

  • Yamaguchi, Hiroshi;Ssto, Yukio;Imaseki, Hitoshi;Yasuda, Nakahiro;Hamano, Tsuyoshi;Furusawa, Yoshiya;Suzuki, Masao;Ishikawa, Takehiro;Mori, Teiji;Matsumoto, Kenichi;Konishi, Teruaki;Yukawa, Masae;Soga, Fuminori
    • 한국의학물리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국의학물리학회 2002년도 Proceedings
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    • pp.267-268
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    • 2002
  • Microbeam is a new avenue of radiation research especially in radiation biology and radiation protection. Selective irradiation of an ionizing particle to a targeted cell organelle may disclose such mechanisms as signal transaction among cell organelles and cell-to-cell communication in the processes toward an endpoint observed. Bystander effect, existence of which is clearly evidenced by application of the particle microbeam to biological experiments, suggests potential underestimation in the conventional risk estimation at low particle fluence rates, such as environment of space radiations in ISS (International Space Station). To promote these studies we started the construction of our microbeam facility (named as SPICE) to our HVEE Tandem accelerator (3.4 MeV proton and 5.1 MeV $^4$He$\^$2+/). For our primary goal, "irradiation of single particle to cell organelle within a position resolution of 2 micrometer in a reasonable irradiation time", special features are considered. Usage of a triplet Q magnet for focussing the beam to submicron of size is an outstanding feature compared to facilities of other institutes. Followings are other features: precise position control of cell dish holder, design of the cell dish, data acquisition of microscopic image of a cell organelle (cell nucleus) and data processing, a reliable particle detection, soft and hard wares to integrate all these related data, to control and irradiate exactly determined number of particles to a targeted spot.

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내시경과 선택적 도뇨관 풍선을 이용한 안와하벽복원술 (Orbital Floor Reconstruction Using Endoscope and Selected Urethral Balloon Catheter)

  • 최환준;이주철;이형교;김준혁
    • Archives of Plastic Surgery
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    • 제38권1호
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Blow-out fractures can be reduced using various methods. The orbital reconstruction technique using a balloon under endoscopic control has advantages over other methods. However, this method has some problems too, such as postoperative follow-up, management of the balloon catheter, and reduction of the posterior orbital floor. Thus, we developed a simple, effective method for orbital floor reduction that involves molding and shaping the antral balloon catheter. Methods: A 0, 30, or $70^{\circ}$, 4-mm endoscope was placed though a two-point, 5-mm maxillary antrostomy. The balloon catheter is placed directly at the orbital apex to reconstruct the anterior shelf (spherical shape), while it is turned in a U-shape towards the anterior maxilla for the posterior shelf (elliptical shape). Orbital floor defects, compound or comminuted fractures are reconstructed with alloplastic materials through an open lid incision under the endoscopic control. Results: This technique was applied to ten patients with orbital floor fractures: five anterior shelf and five posterior shelf fracture, respectively. Four of the patients had zygomatico-orbital fractures, while the rest had isolated orbital floor fractures. Two patients were given porous polyethylene implants Synpor$^{(R)}$) and three underwent reconstruction with a resorbable mesh plate. No complication associated with this technique was identified. Conclusion: The freestyle placement and selection of a urinary balloon catheter under endoscopic control and the preoperative estimation of the volume enhanced the stabilization of the orbital contour. This method improves the adaptation of the orbital floor without the risk of injuring the surrounding orbital contents, dissecting blindly, or using sharp traction. One drawback of this method is the patient's discomfort from the catheter during treatment.

Estimation of Survival Rates in Patients with Lung Cancer in West Azerbaijan, the Northwest of Iran

  • Abazari, Malek;Gholamnejad, Mahdia;Roshanaei, Ghodratollah;Abazari, Reza;Roosta, Yousef;Mahjub, Hossein
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권9호
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    • pp.3923-3926
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    • 2015
  • Background: Lung cancer is a fatal malignancy with high mortality and short survival time. The aim of this study was to estimate survival rates of Iranian patients with lung cancer and its associate predictive factors. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on 355 patients admitted to hospitals of West Azerbaijan in the year 2007. The patients were followed up by phone calls until the end of June 2014. The survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test for comparison. The Cox's proportional hazard model was used to investigate the effect of various variables on patient survival time, including age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance, smoking status, tumor type, tumor stage, treatment, metastasis, and blood hemoglobin concentration. Results: Of the 355 patients under study, 240 died and 115 were censored. The mean and median survival time of patients was 13 and 4.8 months, respectively. According to the results of Kaplan-Meier method, 1, 2, and 3 years survival rates were 39%, 18%, and 0.07%, respectively. Based on Cox regression analysis, the risk of death was associated with ECOG group V (1.83, 95% CI: 1 Conclusions: The survival time of the patients with lung cancer is very short. While early diagnosis may improve the life expectancy effective treatment is not available.

BRCA1 Gene Mutation Screening for the Hereditary Breast and/or Ovarian Cancer Syndrome in Breast Cancer Cases: a First High Resolution DNA Melting Analysis in Indonesia

  • Mundhofir, Farmaditya EP;Wulandari, Catharina Endah;Prajoko, Yan Wisnu;Winarni, Tri Indah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.1539-1546
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    • 2016
  • Specific patterns of the hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome are related to mutations in the BRCA1 gene. One hundred unrelated breast cancer patients were interviewed to obtain clinical symptoms and signs, pedigree and familial history of HBOC syndrome related cancer. Subsequently, data were calculated using the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) risk prediction model. Patients with high score of BOADICEA were offered genetic testing. Eleven patients with high score of BOADICEA, 2 patients with low score of BOADICEA, 2 patient's family members and 15 controls underwent BRCA1 genetic testing. Mutation screening using PCR-HRM was carried out in 22 exons (41 amplicons) of BRCA1 gene. Sanger sequencing was subjected in all samples with aberrant graph. This study identified 10 variants in the BRCA1 gene, consisting of 6 missense mutations (c.1480C>A, c.2612C>T, c.2566T>C, c.3113A>G, c.3548 A>G, c.4837 A>G), 3 synonymous mutations (c.2082 C>T, c.2311 T>C and c.4308T>C) and one intronic mutation (c.134+35 G>T). All variants tend to be polymorphisms and unclassified variants. However, no known pathogenic mutations were found.