• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Estimation

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Does a Debiasing Manipulation Reduce Over-estimation of Emotional Reaction to Risky Objects? (위험 대상에 대한 충격 편향은 탈 편향 조작에 의해 감소하는가?)

  • Yoon, Ji-Won;Lee, Young-Ai
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2011
  • People tend to overestimate their emotional reactions to events such as physical handicap and buying a new car in the future. Students overestimate their reactions to a future grade as compared to their reactions after receiving the grade. Impact bias refers to people's tendency to overestimate the intensity and the duration of emotional reactions to a future event. The present study explored whether impact bias occurs to risky objects such as nuclear energy, genetically engineered food, and mobile phone. Participants were asked to predict their emotional reactions at three time points, that is, at the present, a week after, and a year after. They predicted their reactions before and after two debiasing tasks. The present study demonstrated a different pattern of impact bias at three time points: A largest bias was observed a week after the present. A defocalism manipulation has eliminated the impact bias whereas an adaptation manipulation has not. Several points were discussed regarding the difference between the previous and the present work.

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Emission Estimation and Exposure to Hazardous Gaseous Pollutants Associated with Use of Air Fresheners Indoors (실내 방향제 사용에 의한 유해 가스상 오염물질 배출 산정 및 노출 평가)

  • Jo, Wan-Kuen;Shin, Seung-Ho;Kwon, Gi-Dong;Lee, Jong-Hyo
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2009
  • This study quantitatively investigated the emissions of indoor air pollutants associated with the utilization of air fresheners indoors, and evaluated individual exposure to five specified indoor air pollutants, which were chosen on the basis of selection criteria. An electrically-polished stainless steel chamber (50L) was employed to achieve this purpose. Test air fresheners were selected through three steps: first, on the basis of market sales; second, on the basis on a preliminary head-space study; and lastly, on the basis of emissions of toxic compounds (benzene, ethyl benzene, limonene, toluene, and xylene). The empirical mathematical model fitted well with the time-series concentrations in the environmental chamber (in most cases, determination coefficient, $R^2{\gtrsim}$0.9), thereby suggesting that the empirical model was suitable for testing emissions. The concentration equilibrium appeared 180 min after the introduction of sample air fresheners into the chamber. Both the chamber concentrations of emission rates or factors varied greatly according to air freshener type. It is noteworthy that although benzene, ethyl benzene, toluene, and xylene were emitted from all test air fresheners, their exposure levels were not significant enough to result in any significant health risk. However, certain type of air fresheners were observed to emit significant amount of limonene, which is potentially reactive with ozone to generate secondary pollutants with oxidants such as ozone, hydroxyl radicals, and nitrogen oxides. The exposure levels to limonene associated with the utilization of three air fresheners were estimated to be 13 to 175 times higher than that of other air fresheners. This information can help consumers to select low-pollutant-emitting air fresheners.

A Robust Test for Location Parameters in Multivariate Data (다변량 자료에서 위치모수에 대한 로버스트 검정)

  • So, Sun-Ha;Lee, Dong-Hee;Jung, Byoung-Cheo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1355-1364
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    • 2009
  • This work propose a robust test for location parameters in multivariate data based on MVE and MCD with the affine equivariance and the high-breakdown properties. We consider the hypothesis testing satisfying high efficiency and high test power simultaneously to bring in the one-step reweighting procedure upon high-breakdown estimators, which generally suffer from the low efficiency and, as a result, usually used only in the exploratory analysis. Monte Carlo study shows that the suggested method retains nominal significance levels and higher testing power without regard to various population distributions than a Hotelling's $T^2$ test. In an example, a data set containing known outliers does not make an influence toward our proposal, while it renders a Hotelling's $T^2$ useless.

The Magnitude of Mortality from Ischemic Heart Disease Attributed to Occupational Factors in Korea - Attributable Fraction Estimation Using Meta-analysis

  • Ha, Jae-Hyeok;Kim, Soo-Geun;Paek, Do-Myung;Park, Jung-Sun
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.70-82
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    • 2011
  • Objectives: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a major cause of death in Korea and known to result from several occupational factors. This study attempted to estimate the current magnitude of IHD mortality due to occupational factors in Korea. Methods: After selecting occupational risk factors by literature investigation, we calculated attributable fractions (AFs) from relative risks and exposure data for each factor. Relative risks were estimated using meta-analysis based on published research. Exposure data were collected from the 2006 Survey of Korean Working Conditions. Finally, we estimated 2006 occupation-related IHD mortality. Results: For the factors considered, we estimated the following relative risks: noise 1.06, environmental tobacco smoke 1.19 (men) and 1.22 (women), shift work 1.12, and low job control 1.15 (men) and 1.08 (women). Combined AFs of those factors in the IHD were estimated at 9.29% (0.3-18.51%) in men and 5.78% (-7.05-19.15%) in women. Based on these fractions, Korea's 2006 death toll from occupational IHD between the age of 15 and 69 was calculated at 353 in men (total 3,804) and 72 in women (total 1,246). Conclusion: We estimated occupational IHD mortality of Korea with updated data and more relevant evidence. Despite the efforts to obtain reliable estimates, there were many assumptions and limitations that must be overcome. Future research based on more precise design and reliable evidence is required for more accurate estimates.

Ecotoxicity Estimation of Hazardous Air Pollutants Emitted from Semiconductor Manufacturing Processes Utilizing QSAR

  • Park, Hyung-Geun;Yeo, Min-Kyeong
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.34 no.12
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    • pp.3755-3761
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    • 2013
  • This study aims to assess the ecological risk of the hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) emitted in the semiconductor manufacturing processes in Korea by using Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR, EPA, US, EPI $Suite^{TM}$ 4.1). Owing to the absence of environmental standards of hazardous air pollutants in the semiconductor manufacturing processes in Korea, 18 HAPs in the semiconductor field included in both the US EPA NESHAPs and the hazardous air pollutant list of Ministry of Environment in Korea were selected. As a results 8 chemicals (44.4%) of the selected 18 HAPs were VOCs. Cyanides (cyanides) and ethylene oxides (epoxy resins), and tetrachloro-ethylene (aliphatic compounds, halides) showed long half-lives. Cyanide HAPs especially had the highest half-life with the estimated value of 356.533 days. Nickel compounds (heavy metal compounds) possessed the highest water solubility followed by acetaldehyde (aldehyde compounds), ethylene oxides, and 1,4-dioxanes. The halides, including tetrachloro-ethylenes, carbon tetra-chlorides, benzene (aromatic compounds), and lead (heavy metals), are estimated to take the longest time for biodegradation. Tetrachloroethylene, with the acute toxicity end point of 3.685-7.033 mg/L, was assessed to be the most highly toxic substance among the 18 HAPs. However, considering the absence of the HAPs in the common category of log $K_{ow}{\geq}4$and $BCF{\geq}500$, which indicates the standard of bioconcentration potentials, potentials of the bioconcentration are considered to be low.

Support Vector Machine Classification of Hyperspectral Image using Spectral Similarity Kernel (분광 유사도 커널을 이용한 하이퍼스펙트럴 영상의 Support Vector Machine(SVM) 분류)

  • Choi, Jae-Wan;Byun, Young-Gi;Kim, Yong-Il;Yu, Ki-Yun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.14 no.4 s.38
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2006
  • Support Vector Machine (SVM) which has roots in a statistical learning theory is a training algorithm based on structural risk minimization. Generally, SVM algorithm uses the kernel for determining a linearly non-separable boundary and classifying the data. But, classical kernels can not apply to effectively the hyperspectral image classification because it measures similarity using vector's dot-product or euclidian distance. So, This paper proposes the spectral similarity kernel to solve this problem. The spectral similariy kernel that calculate both vector's euclidian and angle distance is a local kernel, it can effectively consider a reflectance property of hyperspectral image. For validating our algorithm, SVM which used polynomial kernel, RBF kernel and proposed kernel was applied to land cover classification in Hyperion image. It appears that SVM classifier using spectral similarity kernel has the most outstanding result in qualitative and spatial estimation.

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Single Particle Irradiation System to Cell (SPICE) at NIRS

  • Yamaguchi, Hiroshi;Ssto, Yukio;Imaseki, Hitoshi;Yasuda, Nakahiro;Hamano, Tsuyoshi;Furusawa, Yoshiya;Suzuki, Masao;Ishikawa, Takehiro;Mori, Teiji;Matsumoto, Kenichi;Konishi, Teruaki;Yukawa, Masae;Soga, Fuminori
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Medical Physics Conference
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    • 2002.09a
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    • pp.267-268
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    • 2002
  • Microbeam is a new avenue of radiation research especially in radiation biology and radiation protection. Selective irradiation of an ionizing particle to a targeted cell organelle may disclose such mechanisms as signal transaction among cell organelles and cell-to-cell communication in the processes toward an endpoint observed. Bystander effect, existence of which is clearly evidenced by application of the particle microbeam to biological experiments, suggests potential underestimation in the conventional risk estimation at low particle fluence rates, such as environment of space radiations in ISS (International Space Station). To promote these studies we started the construction of our microbeam facility (named as SPICE) to our HVEE Tandem accelerator (3.4 MeV proton and 5.1 MeV $^4$He$\^$2+/). For our primary goal, "irradiation of single particle to cell organelle within a position resolution of 2 micrometer in a reasonable irradiation time", special features are considered. Usage of a triplet Q magnet for focussing the beam to submicron of size is an outstanding feature compared to facilities of other institutes. Followings are other features: precise position control of cell dish holder, design of the cell dish, data acquisition of microscopic image of a cell organelle (cell nucleus) and data processing, a reliable particle detection, soft and hard wares to integrate all these related data, to control and irradiate exactly determined number of particles to a targeted spot.

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Orbital Floor Reconstruction Using Endoscope and Selected Urethral Balloon Catheter (내시경과 선택적 도뇨관 풍선을 이용한 안와하벽복원술)

  • Choi, Hwan-Jun;Lee, Joo-Chul;Lee, Hyung-Gyo;Kim, Jun-Hyuk
    • Archives of Plastic Surgery
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: Blow-out fractures can be reduced using various methods. The orbital reconstruction technique using a balloon under endoscopic control has advantages over other methods. However, this method has some problems too, such as postoperative follow-up, management of the balloon catheter, and reduction of the posterior orbital floor. Thus, we developed a simple, effective method for orbital floor reduction that involves molding and shaping the antral balloon catheter. Methods: A 0, 30, or $70^{\circ}$, 4-mm endoscope was placed though a two-point, 5-mm maxillary antrostomy. The balloon catheter is placed directly at the orbital apex to reconstruct the anterior shelf (spherical shape), while it is turned in a U-shape towards the anterior maxilla for the posterior shelf (elliptical shape). Orbital floor defects, compound or comminuted fractures are reconstructed with alloplastic materials through an open lid incision under the endoscopic control. Results: This technique was applied to ten patients with orbital floor fractures: five anterior shelf and five posterior shelf fracture, respectively. Four of the patients had zygomatico-orbital fractures, while the rest had isolated orbital floor fractures. Two patients were given porous polyethylene implants Synpor$^{(R)}$) and three underwent reconstruction with a resorbable mesh plate. No complication associated with this technique was identified. Conclusion: The freestyle placement and selection of a urinary balloon catheter under endoscopic control and the preoperative estimation of the volume enhanced the stabilization of the orbital contour. This method improves the adaptation of the orbital floor without the risk of injuring the surrounding orbital contents, dissecting blindly, or using sharp traction. One drawback of this method is the patient's discomfort from the catheter during treatment.

Estimation of Survival Rates in Patients with Lung Cancer in West Azerbaijan, the Northwest of Iran

  • Abazari, Malek;Gholamnejad, Mahdia;Roshanaei, Ghodratollah;Abazari, Reza;Roosta, Yousef;Mahjub, Hossein
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.3923-3926
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    • 2015
  • Background: Lung cancer is a fatal malignancy with high mortality and short survival time. The aim of this study was to estimate survival rates of Iranian patients with lung cancer and its associate predictive factors. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted on 355 patients admitted to hospitals of West Azerbaijan in the year 2007. The patients were followed up by phone calls until the end of June 2014. The survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test for comparison. The Cox's proportional hazard model was used to investigate the effect of various variables on patient survival time, including age, sex, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance, smoking status, tumor type, tumor stage, treatment, metastasis, and blood hemoglobin concentration. Results: Of the 355 patients under study, 240 died and 115 were censored. The mean and median survival time of patients was 13 and 4.8 months, respectively. According to the results of Kaplan-Meier method, 1, 2, and 3 years survival rates were 39%, 18%, and 0.07%, respectively. Based on Cox regression analysis, the risk of death was associated with ECOG group V (1.83, 95% CI: 1 Conclusions: The survival time of the patients with lung cancer is very short. While early diagnosis may improve the life expectancy effective treatment is not available.

BRCA1 Gene Mutation Screening for the Hereditary Breast and/or Ovarian Cancer Syndrome in Breast Cancer Cases: a First High Resolution DNA Melting Analysis in Indonesia

  • Mundhofir, Farmaditya EP;Wulandari, Catharina Endah;Prajoko, Yan Wisnu;Winarni, Tri Indah
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1539-1546
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    • 2016
  • Specific patterns of the hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome are related to mutations in the BRCA1 gene. One hundred unrelated breast cancer patients were interviewed to obtain clinical symptoms and signs, pedigree and familial history of HBOC syndrome related cancer. Subsequently, data were calculated using the Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) risk prediction model. Patients with high score of BOADICEA were offered genetic testing. Eleven patients with high score of BOADICEA, 2 patients with low score of BOADICEA, 2 patient's family members and 15 controls underwent BRCA1 genetic testing. Mutation screening using PCR-HRM was carried out in 22 exons (41 amplicons) of BRCA1 gene. Sanger sequencing was subjected in all samples with aberrant graph. This study identified 10 variants in the BRCA1 gene, consisting of 6 missense mutations (c.1480C>A, c.2612C>T, c.2566T>C, c.3113A>G, c.3548 A>G, c.4837 A>G), 3 synonymous mutations (c.2082 C>T, c.2311 T>C and c.4308T>C) and one intronic mutation (c.134+35 G>T). All variants tend to be polymorphisms and unclassified variants. However, no known pathogenic mutations were found.