• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.323-335
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• 2017

A simplified framework for the probabilistic estimation of economic losses induced by the structural vulnerability in single-story and single-bay precast industrial buildings is presented. The simplifications introduced in the framework are oriented to the definition of an expeditious procedure adoptable by government agencies and insurance companies for preliminary risk assessment. The economic losses are evaluated considering seismic hazard, structural response, damage resulting from the structural vulnerability and only structural-vulnerability-induced e]conomic losses, i.e., structural repair or reconstruction costs (stock and flow costs) and content losses induced by structural collapse. The uncertainties associated with each step are accounted for via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results in a probabilistic description of the seismic risk of portal-like industrial buildings, expressed in terms of economic losses for each occurrence (i.e., seismic event) that owners (i.e., insured) and stakeholders can use to make risk management decisions. The outcome may also be useful for the definition of the insurance premiums and the evaluation of the risks and costs for the owner corresponding to the insurance industrial costs. A prototype of a precast concrete industrial building located in Mirandola, Italy, hit by the 2012 Emilia earthquake, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.106-113
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• 2017

Background: Interfacing-system loss-of-coolant-accident (ISLOCA) has been identified as the most hazardous accident scenario in the typical PWR plants. The present study as an effort to improve the knowledge of the source term to the environment during ISLOCA focuses on an improvement of the estimation method. Materials and Methods: The improvement was performed to take into account an effect of broken pipeline and auxiliary building structures relevant to ISLOCA. An estimation of the source term to the environment was for the OPR-1000 plants by MELOCR code version 1.8.6. Results and Discussion: The key features of the source term showed that the massive amount of fission products departed from the beginning of core degradation to the vessel breach. Conclusion: The release amount of fission products may be affected by the broken pipeline and the auxiliary building structure associated with release pathway.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.567-580
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• 2005

It is usually assumed that asset returns in the stock market are normally distributed. However, analyses of real data show that the distribution tends to be skewed and to have heavier tails than those of the normal distribution. In this paper, we investigate the method of estimating the value at risk(VaR) of stock returns. The VaR is computed by using the transformation and back-transformation method. The analysis of KOSPI and KOSDAQ data shows that the proposed estimation outperformed that under the normal assumption.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.235-243
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• 2014

Constrained Bayesian estimates overcome the over shrinkness toward the mean which usual Bayes and empirical Bayes estimates produce by matching first and second empirical moments; subsequently, a constrained Bayes estimate is recommended to use in case the research objective is to produce a histogram of the estimates considering the location and dispersion. The well-known squared error loss function exclusively emphasizes the precision of estimation and may lead to biased estimators. Thus, the balanced loss function is suggested to reflect both goodness of fit and precision of estimation. In insurance pricing, the accurate location estimates of risk and also dispersion estimates of each risk group should be considered under proper loss function. In this paper, by applying these two ideas, the benefit of the constrained Bayes estimates and balanced loss function will be discussed; in addition, application effectiveness will be proved through an analysis of real insurance accident data.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.437-447
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• 2010

Spatial estimation of environmental variables has been regarded as an important preliminary procedure for decision-making. A minimum variance criterion, which has often been adopted in traditional kriging algorithms, does not always guarantee the optimal estimates for subsequent decision-making processes. In this paper, a geostatistical framework is illustrated that consists of uncertainty modeling via stochastic simulation and risk modeling based on loss functions for the selection of optimal estimates. Loss functions that quantify the impact of choosing any estimate different from the unknown true value are linked to geostatistical simulation. A hybrid loss function is especially presented to account for the different impact of over- and underestimation of different land-use types. The loss function-specific estimates that minimize the expected loss are chosen as optimal estimates. The applicability of the geostatistical framework is demonstrated and discussed through a case study of copper mapping.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.68-71
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• 2002

A research on accident loss calculation for polyol process without safety management activities, and safety cost estimation using process risk assessment has been implemented. In order to estimate a magnitude of loss, accident scenarios were made by combining result made from HAZOP Study method with accident possibility analysis results implemented with FTA. Also effect assessment was implement for accident consequence of each scenario. And minimum possible loss cost has been calculated when safety investment do or not. Result from cost-benefit analysis was shown as approximately \335 billion(=USS44,000 billion), as cost after subtracting safety management cost from minimum possible loss cost.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.321-327
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• 2011

Bootstrap methods is the computer-based resampling method that estimates the standard errors and confidence intervals of summary statistics using the plug-in principle for assessing the accuracy or uncertainty of statistical estimates, and the BCa method among the Bootstrap methods is known much superior to other Bootstrap methods in respect of the standards of statistical validation. Therefore this study suggests the method of the representation and treatment of uncertainty in flood risk assessment and water resources planning from the construction and application of rainfall frequency analysis model considersing the uncertainty based on the nonparametric BCa method among the Bootstrap methods for the assessement of the estimation of probability rainfall and the effect of uncertainty considering the uncertainty of the parameter estimation of probability in the rainfall frequency analysis that is the most fundamental in flood risk assessement and water resources planning.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.117-124
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• 2008

The liquidity risk is defined as an additional risk in the market due to the timing and size of a trade. A recent work by Cetin et ai. (2003) proposes a rigorous mathematical model incorporating this liquidity risk into the arbitrage pricing theory. A practical problem arising in a real market application is an estimation problem of a liquidity cost. In this paper, we propose to estimate the liquidity cost function in the context of Cetin et al. (2003) using the constrained least square (LS) method, and illustrate it by analyzing the Kellogg company data.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.456-463
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• 2002

Nowadays. risk management in the enterprise is considered as the important activity. Risk management ran be defined as the activity which is the analysis of risk factors related to damages, the estimation of the magnitude of risk, and the determination of investment to protect damage in a company. Initially, risk management was originated in financial areas. But the concept of risk has been expanded in the enterprise. Most companies have extended their activities in various areas. In this tendency, most activities must be considered in supply chain So, risk management must be ronsidered as the concept in the viewpoint of supply chain. The framework of risk management in supply chain and the related mathematical model are represented in this paper. Risk management in supply chain ran provide a positive opportunity not only to protect various damages, but also to improve the relationship between partners.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.205-229
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• 2007

This study analyzed relation with risk recognition degree by customs business of customs brokers and actuality insurance accident occurrence. These study finding that risk recognition by customs work area of customs brokers and actuality insurance accident occur did not agree. So customs brokers more elevate risk recognition of entry field, origin/trademark right, HS and customs tariff application, customs refund, price estimation that are high the insurance accident rate. and they may have to do emphasis administration through employee education and ability elevation. Specially, operation risk that is produced from charge employee's simplicity mistake who tax invoice omission, a tax use mistake, document nondelivery, notice dispatch delayed action, may have to manage through moral management and employee bylaws and education, employee guidance etc. Also, they publicize these contents to import and export enterprise, and practice risk management of high risk business in priority through education and public information. so we will have to make can do more effective risk management.