• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Assessment Model

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Risk assessment for inland flooding in a small urban catchment : Focusing on the temporal distribution of rainfall and dual drainage model (도시 소유역 내 내수침수 위험도 평가 : 강우 시간분포 및 이중배수체계 모형을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jaehyun;Park, Kihong;Jun, Changhyun;Oh, Jeill
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.389-403
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    • 2021
  • In this study, dual drainage system based runoff model was established for W-drainage area in G-si, and considering the various rainfall characteristics determined using Huff and Mononobe methods, the degree of flooding in the target area was analyzed and the risk was compared and analyzed through the risk matrix method. As a result, the Monobe method compared to the Huff method was analyzed to be suitable analysis for flooding of recent heavy rain, and the validity of the dynamic risk assessment considering the weight of the occurrence probability as the return period was verified through the risk matrix-based analysis. However, since the definition and estimating criteria of the flood risk matrix proposed in this study are based on the return period for extreme rainfall and the depth of flooding according to the results of applying the dual drainage model, there is a limitation in that it is difficult to consider the main factors which are direct impact on inland flooding such as city maintenance and life protection functions. In the future, if various factors affecting inland flood damage are reflected in addition to the amount of flood damage, the flood risk matrix concept proposed in this study can be used as basic information for preparation and prevention of inland flooding, as well as it is judged that it can be considered as a major evaluation item in the selection of the priority management area for sewage maintenance for countermeasures against inland flooding.

Application of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Approach for Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis: Case Study for Steam Generator Tube Rupture

  • Lee, Hansul;Kim, Taewan;Heo, Gyunyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.306-312
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this research is to introduce the technical standard of accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis, and to propose a case study using the dynamic-probabilistic safety assessment (D-PSA) approach. The D-PSA approach can aid in the determination of high-risk/low-frequency accident scenarios from all potential scenarios. It can also be used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the physical state and the actions of the operator in an accident situation for risk quantification. This approach lends significant potential for safety analysis. Furthermore, the D-PSA approach provides a more realistic risk assessment by minimizing assumptions used in the conventional PSA model so-called the static-PSA model, which are relatively static in comparison. We performed risk quantification of a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident using the dynamic event tree (DET) methodology, which is the most widely used methodology in D-PSA. The risk quantification results of D-PSA and S-PSA are compared and evaluated. Suggestions and recommendations for using D-PSA are described in order to provide a technical perspective.

Consideration of the Possibility of Excursion Ship Passage in Busan North Port using Marine Traffic Assessment Index

  • Park, Young-Soo;Lee, Myoung-ki;Kim, Jin-kwon;Lee, Yun-Sok;Park, Min-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.298-305
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    • 2019
  • The demand for the revitalization of marine tourism in Busan North Port is increasing due to changes in functions such as an increase in harbor traffic volume and the expansion of marine leisure space in Busan. As a result, Busan City plans to set a phased alleviation target for prohibition of cruise ship operations, and to lift the prohibition of excursion ship operations in North Port following the cancellation of the prohibition of excursion ship operations in South Port in 2017. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of excursion ship operations in Busan North Port by applying the marine traffic assessment index and to examine the possibility of excursion ship operations. For this purpose, port status, marine accidents, and traffic flow of Busan North Port were investigated. In addition, marine traffic assessment indexes, such as traffic congestion, risk based on an ES Model, and IWRAP MkII, a maritime risk assessment tool, were used to assess the risk and possibility of excursion ship operations in Busan North Port. This study can be used as basic data for analyzing the risk factors that may occur when excursion ships are operated in Busan North Port and to define how excursion ships should operate, with related safety measures.

A Novel Image Captioning based Risk Assessment Model (이미지 캡셔닝 기반의 새로운 위험도 측정 모델)

  • Jeon, Min Seong;Ko, Jae Pil;Cheoi, Kyung Joo
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.119-136
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    • 2023
  • Purpose We introduce a groundbreaking surveillance system explicitly designed to overcome the limitations typically associated with conventional surveillance systems, which often focus primarily on object-centric behavior analysis. Design/methodology/approach The study introduces an innovative approach to risk assessment in surveillance, employing image captioning to generate descriptive captions that effectively encapsulate the interactions among objects, actions, and spatial elements within observed scenes. To support our methodology, we developed a distinctive dataset comprising pairs of [image-caption-danger score] for training purposes. We fine-tuned the BLIP-2 model using this dataset and utilized BERT to decipher the semantic content of the generated captions for assessing risk levels. Findings In a series of experiments conducted with our self-constructed datasets, we illustrate that these datasets offer a wealth of information for risk assessment and display outstanding performance in this area. In comparison to models pre-trained on established datasets, our generated captions thoroughly encompass the necessary object attributes, behaviors, and spatial context crucial for the surveillance system. Additionally, they showcase adaptability to novel sentence structures, ensuring their versatility across a range of contexts.

Estimating Risk Interdependency Ratio for Construction Projects: Using Risk Checklist in Pre-construction Phase

  • Kim, Junyoung;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Park, Moonseo;Kwon, Nahyun
    • Architectural research
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2019
  • Risk assessment during pre-construction phase is important due to the uncertainty of the risks that may exist in projects. Risk checklist is a method to systematically classify and organize the risks that have been experienced in the past, and to identify the risk factors that may be present in the future projects. In addition, risk value assessment based on checklists plays a key role in risk management, and various risk assessment researches have been conducted to carry out this systematically. However, previous approaches have limitations in common, this is because risk values are evaluated individually in risk checklists, which ignore interdependencies among risk factors and neglect the emergence of co-occurrence of risks. Hence, when multiple risk factors cooccur, they cannot be far off from the conventional method of summing the total risk value to establish the risk response strategy. Most of risk factors are interdependent and may have multiple effects if occurred than expected. In particular, specific cause can be overlapped if multiple risks co-occur, and this may result in overestimation of the risk response for the future project. Thus, the objective of this research is to propose a model to help decision makers to quantify the risk value reflecting the interdependency during the identification phase using existing risk checklist that is currently being practiced in actual construction projects. The proposed model will provide the guideline to support the prediction and identification of the interdependency of risks in practice. In addition, the better understanding and prediction of the exceeding risk response by co-occurring risks during the risk identification phase for decision makers.

Safety Management Information System in Roads Construction Work (도로 건설공사의 안전관리정보시스템 개발)

  • Park, Jong-Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.72-77
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    • 2012
  • There are insufficient models that find problems and solutions for accident prevention through risk assessment and suggest safe work process and work instruction from foundation works to finish work for accident decrease. This paper presents a quantitative risk assessment model by analysis of risk factors in each process such as earth works, drainage works, pavement works, appurtenant works and etc based on accident examples and investigation on actual condition in roads construction work. In addition, the safety management system was developed to perform risk assessment of construction and use it for effective safety training for labor.

A Study on Risk Assessment Model for Occupational Health and Safety Management System - Focused on Organization Using Chemical Material - (안전보건경영시스템 구축을 위한 위험성평가모델에 대한 연구 - 화학물질 사용조직을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Kyeong-Seok;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2014
  • The occupational health and safety accidents were continuously increased during handling, usage and manufacturing the chemical materials according to increase of small and medium sized enterprises in domestic industries. These accidents mainly resulted from insufficient occupational health and safety management and deteriorative facilities and focused on corresponding operation to minimize the damage of accidents after occurrence. But, it was required that we grasped the occurrence causes of occupational health and safety risk in handling, usage and manufacturing the chemical materials and develop the adequate corresponding operation and system according to the possible occurrence of occupational health and safety risk. This study deals with the development of risk assessment model to derive the risk and important risk of occupational health and safety and then help to construct the self-controlled occupational health and safety system for small and medium sized enterprises handling the chemical materials.

Airspace Safety Assessment for Implementation of the Japanese Domestic Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum

  • Amai, Osamu;Nagaoka, Sakae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • v.1
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    • pp.435-440
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    • 2006
  • The Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM), which is the reduced minimum from 2,000 ft to 1,000 ft at flight levels (FL) between 290 and FL410 inclusive, was implemented in 30 September 2005 within the Japanese domestic airspace. Prior to the implementation, safety assessment for the airspace in assumed RVSM environments was carried out. Some model parameter values of collision risk model were estimated using flight plan (progress) data and radar data. An estimate of vertical collision risk including operational risk was calculated using these together with given parameter values. The results obtained from this analysis are as follows. (1) Contribution of the vertical collision risk for the crossing routes is about 9 percents of the total technical risk. (2) The estimate of the collision risk is $4.1{\times}10^{-9}$ [fatal accidents / flight hour] and the value is smaller than a maximum allowable level of collision risk, i.e. $5{\times}10^{-9}$ [fatal accidents / flight hour], called the Target Level of Safety.

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Market Expansion Strategies for Small or Medium-sized Construction Companies by Developing Quantitative Risk Assessment Model

  • Yoo, Jinhyuk;Koh, Seungyoon;Seo, Induck;Cha, Heesung
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2015.10a
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    • pp.742-743
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    • 2015
  • Korean construction industry has developed with national economy growth for a couple of decades. However, because of slump of real estate, the domestic construction industry was intimidated. In this situation, many construction company has no choice but to go abroad to find construction projects. However, almost small or medium-sized construction companies are very hard to operate their business because they have small funding ability and weak labor power. Therefore, this study aims to propose an assessment tool through analyzing risk factors of overseas construction projects for small or medium-sized companies by examining preceding research and interviewing industry experts. Weights of the risk factors are determined through the surveys of the industry practitioners. All of the data is configured into the assessment tool and this converts the quantitative information which leads to the optimal of strategies choice. This paper provides a quantitative measurement of possible performance and detailed assessment of each itemized risk factors. This assessment tool is qualified for industry experts so that it can safely be applied to the future projects. Ultimately, many small or medium sized construction companies will benefit from the tool proposed in this study to examine the potential of the overseas market expansion.

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Safety Estimation Index of Infectious Disease (COVID-19) in Workplaces (사업장에 적용 가능한 감염병(COVID-19) 위험성평가 지표 개발)

  • Kim, Ha Kyeong;Lee, Myoung Ha;Song, Hyung-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.88-96
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    • 2022
  • Widespread infectious diseases are a concern for workers working in confined spaces. However, there is no risk assessment index for the risk of infectious disease in the workplace. Therefore, we propose a simple but effective index model to assess the risk of infectious diseases in the workplace. The proposed model identifies the risk of each workplace through an evaluation sheet comprising the frequency and intensity of the infectious disease. The intensity of an infectious disease is generally governed by the density of workers, whereas frequency is the sum of physical-e nvironmental and human management factors. By multiplying intensity and frequency, the risk of the workplace is derived. Through the proposed model, we evaluate the risks of workers at 15 different work sites. The proposed model clearly reveals what should be improved to keep workers safe from infectious diseases and will be helpful in assessing the risk of contagious disease at the work place.