• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Appraisal

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A Study on the Hydration Reaction Model of Expansive Additive of Ettringite-Gypsum Type (에트링가이트-석탄 복합계 팽장재의 수화반응 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Park Sun Gyu;Takahumi Noguchi;Kim Moo-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.17 no.4 s.88
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    • pp.581-586
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    • 2005
  • High-performance concrete (HPC), which is particularly sensitive to self-desiccation, is required to be durable even in severe environmental conditions, i.e. costal area, cold district, etc. However, in recent years, some attention was particularly given to cracking sensitivity of high performance concrete at early age. It has been argued and demonstrated experimentally that such concrete undergoes autogenous shrinkage due to self-desiccation at early age under restrained condition, nd, as a result, internal tensile stress may develop, leading to micro cracking and macro cracking. This shrinkage-introduced crack produces a major serviceability problem for concrete structures. One possible method to reduce cracking due to autogenous shrinkage is the addition of expansive additive. Tests conducted by many researches have shown the beneficial effects of addition of expansive additive for reducing the risk of autogenous shrinkage-introduced cracking. However, the research on hydration model of expansion additive has been hardly researched up to now. This paper presents a study of the hydration model of Ettringite-Gypsum type expansive additive. As a result of comparing forecast values with experiment value, proposed model is shown to expressible of hydration of expansive additive.

Modelling protection behaviour towards micronutrient deficiencies: Case of iodine biofortified vegetable legumes as health intervention for school-going children

  • Mogendi, Joseph Birundu;De Steur, Hans;Gellynck, Xavier;Makokha, Anselimo
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.56-66
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    • 2016
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Despite successes recorded in combating iodine deficiency, more than 2 billion people are still at risk of iodine deficiency disorders. Rural landlocked and mountainous areas of developing countries are the hardest hit, hence the need to explore and advance novel strategies such as biofortification. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We evaluated adoption, purchase, and consumption of iodine biofortified vegetable legumes (IBVL) using the theory of protection motivations (PMT) integrated with an economic valuation technique. A total of 1,200 participants from three land-locked locations in East Africa were recruited via multi-stage cluster sampling, and data were collected using two, slightly distinct, questionnaires incorporating PMT constructs. The survey also elicited preferences for iodine biofortified foods when offered at a premium or discount. Determinants of protection motivations and preferences for iodine biofortified foods were assessed using path analysis modelling and two-limit Tobit regression, respectively. RESULTS: Knowledge of iodine, iodine-health link, salt iodization, and biofortification was very low, albeit lower at the household level. Iodine and biofortification were not recognized as nutrient and novel approaches, respectively. On the other hand, severity, fear, occupation, knowledge, iodine status, household composition, and self-efficacy predicted the intention to consume biofortified foods at the household level; only vulnerability, self-efficacy, and location were the most crucial elements at the school level. In addition, results demonstrated a positive willingness-to-pay a premium or acceptance of a lesser discount for biofortification. Furthermore, preference towards iodine biofortified foods was a function of protection motivations, severity, vulnerability, fear, response efficacy, response cost, knowledge, iodine status, gender, age. and household head. CONCLUSIONS: Results lend support for prevention of iodine deficiency in unprotected populations through biofortification; however 'threat' appraisal and socio-economic predictors are decisive in designing nutrition interventions and stimulating uptake of biofortification. In principle, the contribution is threefold: 1) Successful application of the integrated model to guide policy formulation; 2) Offer guidance to stakeholders to identify and tap niche markets; 3) stimulation of rural economic growth around school feeding programmes.

Clinical Outcome of Pulmonary Metastasectomy in Patients with Pulmonary Metastasis (전이성 폐암에 대한 폐절제술의 성적)

  • Lee, Young-Ok;Lee, Eung-Bae;Ryu, Kyoung-Min
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.40 no.10
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    • pp.674-679
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    • 2007
  • Background: Surgical resection is accepted widely as the standard therapy for complete resectable pulmonary metastases. The number of cases of pulmonary metastasectomy and its survival rate is increasing due to the development of the therapeutic modalities. We attempted to analyze the survival rate and prognosis factors of pulmonary metastasectomy during the last 10 years. Material and Method: We retrospectively analyzed the data of 89 patients who underwent 96 procedures of pulmonary metastasectomy between January 1996 and December 2005. The factors that may influence the long term prognosis such as completeness of resection, the type of primary cancer, the disease-free interval, the number and size of metastasis and the laterality were investigated. Result: There was no operative mortality. The mean disease free interval (DFI) was $29.6{\pm}27.9$ months and there were 3 cases of synchronous metastasis (3.4%). The overall 3, 5 and 10 year survival rate was 52.5%, 32.1% and 20.7%, respectively. The median survival time was 38 months. The 5-year survival rate according to the IRLM appraisal was 63.5%, 33.3%, 22.1% and 0% for stage I, II, III and IV, respectively Univariate analysis showed a better prognosis for patients with a disease free interval of 36 months or more, unilateral metastasis and 4 or less metastases. Conclusion: The survival rate for completely resectable pulmonary metastasectomy was favorable. The disease free interval, laterality and the number of metastasis were the prognosis factors.

Studies on the Appraisal of Stumpage Value in the Forest Land - With Respect to Kyung-Ju Area - (산원지(山元地) 임목평가(林木平価)에 관(関)한 연구(研究) - 경주지방(慶州地方)을 중심(中心)으로 -)

  • Rha, Sang Soo;Park, Tai Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 1981
  • The purpose of the study is to find out the objective method of valuation on the forest stands through the analysis of logging costs that is positively related to timber production. The two forest (Amgog, Whangryoung), located nereby, but forest type, logging and skidding conditions being slightly different, were slected to carry out the study. The objective timber stumpage value were determined by investigating the appropriate timber production costs and profits of logging operations. The main result obtained in this study are as follows: 1. The rate of logging cost in consisting of timber market price is 13.15% in the area of Amgog logging place and 19.48% in Whangryoung. 2. The rate of the other production cost excluding logging cost is 15.36% in the area of Amgog logging place and 28.85% in Whangryoung. 3. The total rate of timber production cost in consisting of the market price is more than 28.51% in the area of Amgog logging place and 48.33% in Whangryoung, 4. Though the productivity of forest land is affected by the selection of tree species, tending, treatments and effective management of forest land, the more important problem is improvement of logging condition. 5. The rate of production cost in timber price is so high that we should endeavore to improve the productivity of labour and its quality, and minimize the difference of piece work per day in accordance to the various site condition. 6. Although the profit of forest industry is related to the period of recapturing investment, it is more closely related to the working condition, risk of investment and continuous change of social investment interest. 7. If the right variables which are related to the timber market, are objectively obtained, the stumpage value of mature forests can be objectively caculated by applying straight line discounting method or compound discounting method in caculating the stump to market price.

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APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN SAFEGUARDS

  • Fattah, A.;Nishiwaki, Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1051-1054
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    • 1993
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency's Statute in Article III.A.5 allows it“to establish and administer safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, facilities and information made available by the Agency or at its request or under its supervision or control are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose; and to apply safeguards, at the request of the parties, to any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy”. Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfilment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of afeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material. It is clear that no international safeguards system can physically prevent diversion. The IAEA safeguards system is basically a verification measure designed to provide assurance in those cases in which diversion has not occurred. Verification is accomplished by two basic means: material accountancy and containment and surveillance measures. Nuclear material accountancy is the fundamental IAEA safeguards mechanism, while containment and surveillance serve as important complementary measures. Material accountancy refers to a collection of measurements and other determinations which enable the State and the Agency to maintain a current picture of the location and movement of nuclear material into and out of material balance areas, i. e. areas where all material entering or leaving is measurab e. A containment measure is one that is designed by taking advantage of structural characteristics, such as containers, tanks or pipes, etc. To establish the physical integrity of an area or item by preventing the undetected movement of nuclear material or equipment. Such measures involve the application of tamper-indicating or surveillance devices. Surveillance refers to both human and instrumental observation aimed at indicating the movement of nuclear material. The verification process consists of three over-lapping elements: (a) Provision by the State of information such as - design information describing nuclear installations; - accounting reports listing nuclear material inventories, receipts and shipments; - documents amplifying and clarifying reports, as applicable; - notification of international transfers of nuclear material. (b) Collection by the IAEA of information through inspection activities such as - verification of design information - examination of records and repo ts - measurement of nuclear material - examination of containment and surveillance measures - follow-up activities in case of unusual findings. (c) Evaluation of the information provided by the State and of that collected by inspectors to determine the completeness, accuracy and validity of the information provided by the State and to resolve any anomalies and discrepancies. To design an effective verification system, one must identify possible ways and means by which nuclear material could be diverted from peaceful uses, including means to conceal such diversions. These theoretical ways and means, which have become known as diversion strategies, are used as one of the basic inputs for the development of safeguards procedures, equipment and instrumentation. For analysis of implementation strategy purposes, it is assumed that non-compliance cannot be excluded a priori and that consequently there is a low but non-zero probability that a diversion could be attempted in all safeguards ituations. An important element of diversion strategies is the identification of various possible diversion paths; the amount, type and location of nuclear material involved, the physical route and conversion of the material that may take place, rate of removal and concealment methods, as appropriate. With regard to the physical route and conversion of nuclear material the following main categories may be considered: - unreported removal of nuclear material from an installation or during transit - unreported introduction of nuclear material into an installation - unreported transfer of nuclear material from one material balance area to another - unreported production of nuclear material, e. g. enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium - undeclared uses of the material within the installation. With respect to the amount of nuclear material that might be diverted in a given time (the diversion rate), the continuum between the following two limiting cases is cons dered: - one significant quantity or more in a short time, often known as abrupt diversion; and - one significant quantity or more per year, for example, by accumulation of smaller amounts each time to add up to a significant quantity over a period of one year, often called protracted diversion. Concealment methods may include: - restriction of access of inspectors - falsification of records, reports and other material balance areas - replacement of nuclear material, e. g. use of dummy objects - falsification of measurements or of their evaluation - interference with IAEA installed equipment.As a result of diversion and its concealment or other actions, anomalies will occur. All reasonable diversion routes, scenarios/strategies and concealment methods have to be taken into account in designing safeguards implementation strategies so as to provide sufficient opportunities for the IAEA to observe such anomalies. The safeguards approach for each facility will make a different use of these procedures, equipment and instrumentation according to the various diversion strategies which could be applicable to that facility and according to the detection and inspection goals which are applied. Postulated pathways sets of scenarios comprise those elements of diversion strategies which might be carried out at a facility or across a State's fuel cycle with declared or undeclared activities. All such factors, however, contain a degree of fuzziness that need a human judgment to make the ultimate conclusion that all material is being used for peaceful purposes. Safeguards has been traditionally based on verification of declared material and facilities using material accountancy as a fundamental measure. The strength of material accountancy is based on the fact that it allows to detect any diversion independent of the diversion route taken. Material accountancy detects a diversion after it actually happened and thus is powerless to physically prevent it and can only deter by the risk of early detection any contemplation by State authorities to carry out a diversion. Recently the IAEA has been faced with new challenges. To deal with these, various measures are being reconsidered to strengthen the safeguards system such as enhanced assessment of the completeness of the State's initial declaration of nuclear material and installations under its jurisdiction enhanced monitoring and analysis of open information and analysis of open information that may indicate inconsistencies with the State's safeguards obligations. Precise information vital for such enhanced assessments and analyses is normally not available or, if available, difficult and expensive collection of information would be necessary. Above all, realistic appraisal of truth needs sound human judgment.

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