• Title/Summary/Keyword: Revenue estimation

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Estimation and Application of the Value of Travel Time by Time Period: A Case Study of Downtown Highway Expansion Project (시간대별 통행시간가치 추정 및 적용: 도심부 도로 확장 사업 사례연구를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jae-Young;Choi, Keechoo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.1D
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2011
  • The travel time value is important factor for the evaluation of feasibility the transportation facility investment. The existing method for calculation of the travel time for each mode uses daily average trip purpose. So the value of travel time is constant because it is estimated with only daily average proportion. This daily constant time value can distort the results of future demands of toll roads or economic appraisals for the projects. The proportion of the trip purpose varies by time periods. Accordingly the value of travel time also varies by time periods. In this study, times periods are classified as morning peak, evening peak, business time off-peak, and non-business time off-peak. And trip purpose proportions are sorted by each time period from raw data of Seoul household trip study, then the value of travel time for each time period is estimated with these sorted purpose proportions. A case study of Seoul Jung-gu and Yongsan-gu performed with newly estimated time value by time periods. The result of benefit calculation with the daily constant time value is overestimated approximately annual 2.5 billion Won compared by time values by time periods. The demands of toll roads are also overestimated with the existing daily constant time value by daily 3,500 vehicles and total revenue of toll roads are overestimated by annually 1 billion Won. In conclusion, the value of travel time by each time period enables the more precise economic evaluation of the transportation facility investment projects, mode choice behavior, and route choice behavior especially for toll roads.

Analysis of Effects on Adoption of a Safety e-Reporting System (안전신고 제도(안전신문고) 도입에 따른 효과 분석)

  • Lee, Jun;Cho, Sangmyeong;Park, Eunmi;Lee, Sanghwa
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.27-41
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    • 2019
  • To analyze the effectiveness of the safety e-reporting system, the present study carried out analysis of safety e-reporting data reported between September 2014 and July 2019, and selected items for measuring the effectiveness of safety e-reporting. Using these items, the effects of adopting the reporting system for the four major parking violations was analyzed, alongside an analysis of effects in terms of traffic accidents using the unit model. When we count the securement of the tax revenue through measures such as charging fines as the beneficial factor per case, the estimation of the benefit is around 62,000 KRW per case. Summing the two factors up, the total value of citizen's reports pertaining to the big four parking violations is about 275,000 KRW per case. Most of the reports made through the Safety e-Report system are about traffic and facilities. When we calculate the total annual benefit with the representative reporting value defined with traffic and facilities, the system received a total of 1,164,439 cases from 2014 to 2019, while citizens reported 52,721 cases for the big four parking violations from April to July 2019. As the value of a safety report is around the net benefit for last five years is around 27,340,000,000 KRW.

Optimal Toll Estimate of a Toll Road Using Fuzzy Approximate Reasoning - Forced on the Geoga Bridge - (퍼지근사추론을 이용한 유료도로의 적정요금 산정 - 거가대교를 중심으로 -)

  • Ha Man-Box;Kim Kyung-Whan;Kim Yeong
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.8 no.3 s.29
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    • pp.63-76
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    • 2006
  • For a private toll road project, deciding optimal toll is an important element of economic analysis for the project and a challengeable work. In this study, the optimal toll of a private toll bridge, Geoga Bridge which connects Geoje Island of Gyeongnam Province and Gaduk Island of Busan was estimated using Stated Preference (SP) data. The SP data were collected by interviewing the passenger car drivers travelling on the National Road 14. They are latent users of the bridge. A fuzzy approximate reasoning model to estimate the optimal toll was built using the SP data. For the input variable of the model, the saved travel time and toll level were employed and the diversion rate to the bridge was employed for the output variable. The diversion rates for each toll level and saved travel time were estimated and the toll level which had maximized the toll revenue was decided as optimal toll. The optimal toll was tested by comparing with the average pay rate of passenger car drivers. Since the optimal toll for passenger cars at one hour saving, the 6,250 won is about 50 % of the average pay rate of passenger car divers, the toll was evaluated not to be high. The technique employed in this study may be used for the estimation of the optimal tolls for other kinds of vehicles.

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A Study on the Economic Feasibility Analysis of Cosmetics Beauty Industrialization Center

  • Kim, Ji-In;Park, Jeong-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.221-229
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    • 2020
  • As the cosmetics beauty industry grows into a key next-generation industry, the establishment of an industrialization center is needed, but failure to verify the adequacy and feasibility of the investment could lead to financial burdens. In this study, the project costs and facilities of an industrial center are reviewed to analyze its economic feasibility based on the cost estimates, revenue estimates, estimated profit or loss calculations, and estimated operating cash flows. The profit estimation criteria were analyzed by applying 90 per cent of expected orders for research projects (24 billion won) and 12 per cent of rental rates for testing equipment (4.5 billion won for construction), and the benefit/cost ratio is higher than 1.02 per cent and the net present value is higher than '0' won, and the internal rate of return is also more than 5.06 per cent for all three analytical methods. Therefore, in order for the construction of a cosmetics beauty industrialization center to be economically feasible, it is necessary to maintain research project orders of more than 90 percent and return on equipment rent of more than 12 percent, and a strategic approach is needed to diversify business profits.

Improvements in Estimation Criteria and Determinants of the Demand for Harbor Pilots (도선사 수요산정 결정요소 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kisun;Jeon, Yeong-Woo;Kim, Tae-goun;Lee, Changhee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.819-826
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    • 2019
  • To accurately forecast the supply and demand of harbor pilots, it is necessary to derive the determinants of demand because they are directly linked to securing the safety of ships and ports. The securing of an appropriate numbers of harbor pilots can create conflicts of interest among the pilots, the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, and users of pilotage services as it is also a matter directly related to harbor pilots' income. Therefore, a measure is needed to ensure a suitable number of pilots can be maintained, through which high quality pilotage services can be provided. This can be achieved by deriving reasonable determinants for estimating and forecasting demand, which satisfy all stakeholders involved in pilotage service. To reveal the challenges posed by the current determinants regarding the demand for harbor pilots used by the Central Pilotage Operation Council, and arrive at solutions, this study derived three determining factors, namely the total annual average piloting time, the average working hours of pilots, and the current number of pilots. These were used to determine the demand for harbor pilots. This study used a survey and analysis of current determining factors, a questionnaire survey administered to the interested parties, a case study of selected countries, and so on, as the research methodology.

The Economic Impact of a Rural Hospital to Local Economy (한 병원이 지역사회에 미치는 경제적 영향 분석)

  • Kang, Im-Ok;Lee, Sun-Hee;Kim, Han-Joong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.4 s.55
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    • pp.831-842
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    • 1996
  • Demand for high quality medical care has recently been increasing in step with high level of income and education. Patients prefer the use of large general hospitals to small community hospitals. Large hospitals, usually located at urban area, expand their capacities to cope with the increasing demand, therefore, they easily secure revenue necessary for growth and development of hospitals. However, small community hospitals are facing with serious financial difficulties caused from the reduction of patients in one hand and the inflation of cost in another. If small rural hospitals were closed, the closure would have negative impacts on local economies in addition to the decrease in access to medical care. Community leaders should have an insight on the contribution of community hospitals to local economies. They could make a rational decision on the hospital closure only with the understanding of hospital's contribution to the community. This study is designed to develop an economic model to estimate the contribution of rural hospital to local economies, and also to apply this model with a specific hospital. The contribution of a hospital to local economies consists of two elements, direct effect and multiplier effects. The direct impacts include hospital's local purchasing power, employee's local purchasing power, and the consumption of patients coming from outside the community. The direct impact induces multiplication effect in the local economy. The seed money invested to other industries grows through economic activities in the region. This study estimated the direct effect with the data of expenditure of the case hospital. The total effect was calculated by multiplied the direct effect with a multiplier. The multiplier was drown from the ratio of marginal propensity of income and expenditure. Beside the estimation of the total impacts, the economic effect from the external resources was also analyzed by the use of the ratio of patients coming outside the region. The results are as follows. 1. The direct economic contribution of the hospital to the local economy is 1,104 million won. 2. The value of multiplier in the region is 2.976. 3. The total economic effect is 3,286 million won, and the multiplication effect is 2,182 million won. 4. The economic contribution from the external resources is 245 million won which is 7.5% of the total economic effect.

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An Estimation of the Corporate Income Tax Reduced from a Tax Support Scheme for Companies of Persons with Disabilities and Its Implication (장애인기업 세제지원 필요성과 세수감 추계의 함의)

  • Lim, Byung-In;Kim, Sung-Tai;Seo, Hye-Rim
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the status quo of the support system for companies of persons with disabilities in Korea, and then estimates the corporate income tax reduced from a special taxation system, same as one applied to social enterprises and standard workplace for persons with disabilities, using 「Data for registered companies of persons with disabilities」(2020.6) by the Disable Enterprise Business Center. Now companies of persons with disabilities have more than 87% in the business continuity rate, and their employment rate of the average rate for 2015-2017 is higher than public institutions and private companies, which is in line with the government's employment promotion policy for the disabled. However, article 14 (Support in Taxation) of the 「Act On The Facilitation Of Entrepreneurial Activities Of Persons With Disabilities」 is still declarative and optional. Meanwhile, the corporate income tax reduced by a simulation method was calculated to be about KRW 130.1 billion for 5 years (KRW 26.02 billion per year). In this context, when comparing the tax revenue to be reduced with a positive effect by securing the effectiveness of Article 14, it can be said that the tax support for companies of persons with disabilities is feasible.

Analysis and Estimation of Food and Beverage Sales at Incheon Int'l Airport by ARIMA-Intervention Time Series Model (ARIMA-Intervention 시계열 모형을 이용한 인천국제공항 식음료 매출 분석 및 추정 연구)

  • Yoon, Han-Young;Park, Sung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.458-468
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    • 2019
  • This research attempted to estimate monthly sales of food and beverage at the passenger terminal of Incheon int'l airport from June of 2015 to December 2020. This paper used ARIMA-Intervention model which can estimate the change of the sales amount suggesting the predicted monthly food and beverage sales revenue. The intervention variable was travel-ban policy against south Korea from P.R. China since July 2016 to December 2017 due to THAAD in south Korea. According to ARIMA, it was found normal predicted sales amount showed the slow growth increase rate until 2020 due to the effect of intervened variable. However, the monthly food sales in July and August 2019 was 20.3 and 21.2 billion KRW respectively. Each amount would increase even more in 2020 and the amount would increase to 21.4 and 22.1 billion KRW. The sales amount in 2019 would be 7.7 and 8.1 billion KRW and climb up 7.9 and 8.2 billion KRW in 2020. It was expected LCC passengers tend to spend more money for F&B at airport due to no meal or drink service of LCC or the paid-in meal and beverage service of LCC. The growth of sales of food and beverate will be accompanied with the growth of LCC according to estimated data.

Estimation Study of Incremental Profit of the Imported Buff-tailed Bumblebee, Bombus terrestris, and Pollination Alternatives (서양뒤영벌 수입과 화분매개 대체안의 증분이익 추정 연구)

  • Yang, Dongjae;Kim, Sohee;Ji, Jeong-Yeon;Lee, Heungsik;Kim, Hyojoong
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.408-421
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    • 2019
  • This study estimated and analyzed the incremental profits to compare the imported buff-tailed bumblebees, Bombus terrestris, and their pollination alternatives. A result of the analysis showed that the incremental profit, which is defined as the sales revenue minus the common production cost, was higher when using pollinator insects than when using the artificial pollination and that the incremental costs were lower when using domestic bumblebees or artificial pollination than when using imported bumblebees or honeybees. The incremental profits of each alternative were 46,801 million won for imported bumblebees, 47,170 million won for domestic bumblebees, 46,975 million won for honeybees, and 29,839 million won for artificial pollination. The incremental profit means the accounting profit that can be realized from each alternative. However, not all of the accounting profits can be attributed to pollen-mediated alternatives since they include potential costs such as imputed rent or normal profits. Considering the opportunity costs, which are the potential costs, it appears that the alternative of using imported bumblebees can lead to an economic loss. It means that fruit and vegetable farmers can expect additional economic profits if they choose other alternatives instead of using imported bumblebees.

Estimation on Optimum Fishing Effort of Walleye Pollock Fishery in the East Coast of Korea : Based on the Economic Analysis between Danish Seine Fishery and Trawl Fishery for Walleye Pollock (한국 동해 명태 어업의 적정어획노력량 추정 -동해구기선저인망어업과 동해구트롤어업의 경제성분석을 근거로-)

  • 이장욱
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.75-99
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    • 1991
  • A quantitative analysis was carried out to monitor the commercial yield level of walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma in the east coast of Korea, based on available data on catch and fishing effort, catch per unit of effort including fish prices from 1911 to 1988, using a traditional yield model. The results from the quantitative assessment were based to estimate maximum economic yield (MEY) and optimal fishing effort (E-opt) at MEY. On the other hand, interaction aspects between danish seine fishery and trawl fishery mainly targeting walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea were studied to predict optimal situation in fishing effort level from economic point of view which gives the most benefits to the two fisheries. Total production of walleye pollock in 1911 when its catch record was begun for the first time was about 12, 000 metric tons(M/T), and then the catch trend maintained nearly at the level of 50, 000 M/T per annum, showing a decreasing trend until 1930. The highest production from historical data base on walleye pollock fishery statistics was from the years in 1939 and 1940, about 270, 000 M/T and 26, 000 M/T, respectively. No production of the fish species was recorded during the years from 1943 to 1947, and from 1949 to 1951. From 1952 onwards annual production was only available from the southern part of 38$^{\circ}$N in the east coast. During two decades from 1952 to 1970, the production had sustained about less than 30, 000 M/T every year. Annual production showed an increasing trend from 1971, reaching a maximum level of approximately 162, 000 M/T in 1981. Afterwards, it has deceased sharply year after year and amounted to 180, 000 M/T in 1988. The catch composition of walleye pollock for different fishery segments during 1970~1988 showed that more than 70% of the total catch was from danish seine fishery until 1977 but from 1978 onwards, the catch proportion did not differ from one another, accounting for the nearly same proportion. Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery maintained a decline tendency after 1977 when the values of CPUE were at level of 800 kg/haul for the former fishery and 1, 300 kg/haul for the latter fishery, respectively. CPUEs of gillnet fishery during 1980~1983 increased to about 3.5 times as high value as in the years, 1970~1979 and during 1987~1988 it decreased again to the level of the years, 1970~1978. The bottom longline fishery's CPUE wa at a very low level (20 kg/basket) through the whole study years, with exception of the value (60 kg/basket) in 1980. Fishing grounds of walleye pollock in the east coast of Korea showed a very limited distribution range. Danish seine fishery concentrated fishing around the coastal areas of Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and October~December. Distributions of fishing grounds of trawl fishery were the areas along the coastal regions in the central part of the east coast. Gillnet and bottom longline fisheries fished walleye pollock mainly in the areas of around Sokcho and Jumunjin during January~February and December. Relationship between CPUEs' values from danish seine fishery and trawl fishery was used to standardize fishing effort to apply to surplus production model for estimating maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and optimum fish effort (F-opt) at MSY. The results suggested a MSY of 114, 000 M/T with an estimated F-opt of 173, 000 hauls per year. Based on the estimates of MSY and F-opt, MEY was estimated to be about 94, 000 M/T with a range of 81, 000 to 103, 000 M/T and E-opt 100, 000 hauls per year with a range of 80, 000 to 120, 000 hauls. The estimated values of MEY and E-opt corresponded to 82% of MSY and 58% of F-opt, respectively. An optimal situation in the fishing effort level, which can envisage either simultaneously maximum yield or maximum benefit for both danish seine fishery and trawl fishery, was determined from relationship between revenue and cost of running the fleet : the optimal fishing effort of danish seine fishery was about 52, 000 hauls per year, corresponding to 50 danish seiners and 27, 000 hauls per year which is equal nearly to 36 trawlers, respectively. It was anticipated that the net income from sustainable yield estimated from the respective optimal fishing effort of the two fisheries will be about 3, 800 million won for danish seine fishery and 1, 000 million won for trawl fishery.

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