• Title/Summary/Keyword: Revenue estimation

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Structural Analysis of the OnBid Car Auction (온비드 공매가격 결정요인에 관한 연구: 승용차 공매를 중심으로)

  • Song, Unjy
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.61-93
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    • 2014
  • This paper analyzes Onbid car auction data by employing various methods, including structural estimation, to identify main factors which decides auction prices and figure out what effects those factors are making on the auction price. I then discuss on how to maximize sellers' revenue in OnBid car auctions. The government and public institutes sell their assets through the OnBid auction, hence the optimal design of the OnBid auction is important. The paper's main findings are as follows: (ⅰ) The independent private value model explains OnBid car auction data better than the correlated private value model or the interdependent value model; (ⅱ) Both the number of bidders and the ratios of the auction price to the evaluation value were lower in the auctions posted by the Kamco than auctions by institutes other than the Kamco; (ⅲ) Some auctions require that at least two bidders should submit a bid no less than the reserve price for sale. In those auctions, both the number of bidders and each bidder's valuation on the auctioned object were lower than in auctions without that requirement; (ⅳ) The sum of sellers' revenue would be decreased in the simulation with the reserve price higher by 5%, 10%, and 20% across auctions by institutes other than Kamco.

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Reliability Analysis for Power Plants Based on Insufficient Failure Data (불충분한 고장 데이터에 기초한 발전소의 신뢰도 산정기법에 관한 연구)

  • 이승철;최동수
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.52 no.7
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    • pp.401-406
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    • 2003
  • Electric power industries in several countries are currently undergoing major changes, mainly represented by the privatizations of the power plants and distribution systems. Reliable operations of the power plants directly contribute to the revenue increases of the generation companies in such competitive environments. Strategic optimizations should be performed between the levels of the reliabilities to be maintained and the various preventive maintenance costs, which require the accurate estimations of the power plant reliabilities. However, accurate estimations of the power plant reliabilities are often limited by the lack of accurate power plant failure data. A power plant is not supposed to be failed that often. And if it fails, its impact upon the power system stability is quite substantial in most cases, setting aside the significant revenue losses and lowered company images. Reliability assessment is also important for Independent System Operators(ISO) or Market Operators to properly assess the level of needed compensations for the installed capacity based on the availability of the generation plants. In this paper, we present a power plant reliability estimation technique that can be applied when the failure data is insufficient. Median rank and Weibull distribution are used to accommodate such insufficiency. The Median rank is utilized to derive the cumulative failure probability for each ordered failure. The Weibull distribution is used because of its flexibility of accommodating several different distribution types based on the shape parameter values. The proposed method is applied to small size failure data and its application potential is demonstrated.

Technical Application and Analysis for Reduction of Water Loss in Water Distribution Systems (상수도 관망의 유수율 제고 기술의 적용 및 분석)

  • Kim, Ju-Hwan;Lee, Doo-Jin;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Woo, Hyung-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.260-266
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    • 2009
  • Non-revenue water reduction(NRW) technologies are implemented to evaluate and manage leakages scientifically in water distribution systems under local governments. A development of quantitative leakage indicator by measuring minimum night flow, pressure control policy by installation of PRV(pressure reducing valve) and the establishment of leakage prevention schemes by residual life modeling of deteriorated water pipes are reviewed and studied. Estimation models of allowable leakage are developed by measuring and analyzing minimum night flow at residential and commercial area in Nonsan city, which is suggested from UK water industry and can improve an existing leakage indicator for the evaluation of non-revenue water. Also, pressure control method is applied and analyzed to Uti distribution area in Sacheon city in the operation aspect. As results, $466\;m^3/day$ of leakage can be reduced and it is expected that 113million won of annual cost can be saved. In the part of corrosion velocity and residual life assessment, non-linear prediction models of residual thickness are proposed by assessment of corrosion velocity based on exposure years, soil and water quality etc., since the deteriorated water pipe play a major role to increase leakage. It is expected that collection data and analyzing results can be applied effectively and positively to reduce non-revenue water by accumulating surveying data and verifying the results in the business field of water distribution systems under local governments.

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Two-Part Tax for Polluting Oligopolists with Endogenous Entry (내생적 시장진입 구조에서 오염배출 과점기업에 대한 이부 환경세)

  • Park, Chul-Hi;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.459-483
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    • 2010
  • This paper constructs the two-part tax-a combined form of output tax and entrance fee-for polluting oligopolists under endogenous entry. In the presence of external damage that varies exogenously with aggregate output, we show that the two-part tax produces the ex post Pigouvian rule and thus achieves the first-best optimum. We also examine a detailed analysis of the impact of the two-part tax on social welfare and government revenues. Finally, when estimation errors exist in the process of regulation, we identify the incentive conflicts between interest groups and analyze the effects of estimation errors on determining optimal tax. In particular, we show that if the regulator takes care of both welfare loss and revenue gain under the proposed two-part tax, not only over-estimation on the slope of external damage but also under-estimation on the slope of market demand should be taken into the policy consideration.

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A Study on the Development of the Optimal Capacity Estimation Algorithm of Intergrated Energy Facilities Based on Operating Conditions (운용상태를 고려한 집단에너지설비의 최적용량 산정 알고리즘의 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chang Sik;Song, Myung Ho;Yeom, Jee hoon;Shin, Jungyull
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.94-102
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to propose a method for optimizing heat generation facilities to maximize revenue by investigating their operational status during times of maximum heat demand for district heating. Based on the derived result, this study also proposes a method for determining a given power plant's optimal equipment, such as combined heat and power plant(CHP), peak load boilers (PLB), heat accumulators, and so on, depending on heat demand and facility capacities. It also offers a guide for how to operate facilities more economically by considering the operational status of district heating companies.

Estimation method of natural rate of rise of leakage in water distribution system (배급수관망에서의 누수복원량 산정방법)

  • Jin, Saemmul;Kim, Kyoungpil;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.299-309
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    • 2019
  • Waterworks facilities inevitably experience some amount of leakage even if there is a lot of investment or state-of-the-art technology that is applied such as DMA(District Metered Area) system construction, leakage detection, repair, pipe rehabilitation, etc. The primary reason is the leakage is naturally restored over time. In the UK, this restoration characteristic is defined as NRR(Natural rate of rise of leakage) and used to decision making for prioritizing active leakage control of DMAs. However, this restoration characteristic is well recognized, but researches on NRR in the water distribution system are insufficient in Korea. In this study, the estimation method of NRR was developed suitable for applicating in Korea considering of SCADA data, water infrastructure, and water usage patterns by modification of the UK's NRR method. The proposed method was applied to 9 DMAs and verified it's applicability by comparing with the other water loss performance indicators. It is expected that the proposed method can be used to support decision making for sustainable NRW(Nor-revenue water) management in the water distribution system.

Estimation of Potential Demand for Dairy Processing Experience Tourism in Mongolia (몽골 유가공 체험관광 잠재수요 추정)

  • Sodnomragchaa, Lkhagvajav;Kim, Se-Hyuk;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Choi, Se-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.343-355
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    • 2023
  • Dairy processing experience tourism, that combines production, processing, and services, can be a good alternative to increase added value in Mongolian livestock industry. In addition, in order to successfully pursue this, it is necessary to first identify consumers' potential demand for the experience tourism and the factors affecting demand. Accordingly, this study estimated consumers' potential demand for dairy processing experience tourism using data from 758 people obtained through an online survey targeting Ulaanbaatar residents. As a result of the estimation, it was found that the variables that affect potential demand are the experience fees, average monthly household income, gender, age, arol consumption, and education level. The potential demand for dairy processing experience tourism was measured by multiplying the population of Ulaanbaatar by the estimated probability of accepting the experience tourism, and the total revenue was maximum at 32.303 million Tuk when the experience fee was 50,000 Tuk. The implications based on the analysis results are that, in order to promote participation in the experience tourism, it is necessary to promote it primarily to people with high average monthly household income, high level of education, younger age groups, and male. It can be said that preference is high and sufficient potential demand exists, but it is suggested that appropriate setting of experience fees is important.

Comparison of Sampling and Estimation Methods for Economic Optimization of Cumene Production Process (쿠멘 생산 공정의 경제성 최적화를 위한 샘플링 및 추정법의 비교)

  • Baek, Jong-Bae;Lee, Gibaek
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.564-573
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    • 2014
  • Economic optimization of cumene manufacturing process to produce cumene from benzene and propylene was studied. The chosen objective function was the operational profit per year that subtracted capital cost, utility cost, and reactants cost from product revenue and other benefit. The number of design variables of the optimization are 6. Matlab connected to and controlled Unisim Design to calculate operational profit with the given design variables. As the first step of the optimization, design variable points was sampled and operational profit was calculated by using Unisim Design. By using the sampled data, the estimation model to calculate the operational profit was constructed, and the optimization was performed on the estimation model. This study compared second order polynomial and support vector regression as the estimation method. As the sampling method, central composite design was compared with Hammersley sequence sampling. The optimization results showed that support vector regression and Hammersley sequence sampling were superior than second order polynomial and central composite design, respectively. The optimized operational profit was 17.96 MM$ per year, which was 12% higher than 16.04 MM$ of base case.

DEA를 이용한 통신 사업자의 효율성 측정에 관한 연구

  • 김찬규;김현종
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.213-217
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    • 2001
  • This paper deals with the estimation of efficiency of Telecommunication Operators(TOs) using DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). The measure of efficiency using DEA accomplishes next two steps. First, the efficient frontier is derived using the data of input and output. And then the efficiency of the decision making units are measured by the distances from this frontier To measure efficiency, we consider a one-output, three-input production function. We use the tangible assets, investment cost, the number of employees for input data and measure the output by the revenue. After measuring the efficiency, We can compare the domestic TOs with the international TOs and the wire TOs with wireless ones by average efficiency. After accomplishing the analysis of efficiency, the internal/external efficiency is measured simultaneously through correlation between efficiency and profitability, quality level.

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A Bayesian Stochastic Frontier Estimation of Efficiencies for Strawberry and Tomato Farming : Effect of Environmentally Friendly Farming (베이지언 확률프론티어 기법을 이용한 딸기 및 토마토 친환경재배의 효율성 분석)

  • Park, Ho-Jeong;Yang, Seung-Ryong
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.355-368
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    • 2016
  • There are growing interests in environmental friendly cultivation for the matter of health concern. This study analyzes an economic efficiency of strawberry and tomato farming by considering the role of environmentally friendly cultivation. The Database of Rural Development Administration is used for strawberry and tomato farming households. We adopt a Bayesian stochastic frontier model to resolve a small sample property of the data. Empirical finding is that environmentally friendly cultivation improves the revenue of farming but the effect on net profit is not conclusive which calls for future research.