• Title/Summary/Keyword: Returns to investment

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In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Predictability of Cryptocurrency Returns

  • Kyungjin Park;Hojin Lee
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.213-242
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    • 2023
  • This paper investigates whether the price of cryptocurrency is determined by the US dollar index, the price of investment assets such gold and oil, and the implied volatility of the KOSPI. Overall, the returns on cryptocurrencies are best predicted by the trading volume of the cryptocurrency both in-sample and out-of-sample. The estimates of gold and the dollar index are negative in the return prediction, though they are not significant. The dollar index, gold, and the cryptocurrencies seem to share characteristics which hedging instruments have in common. When investors take notice of the imminent market risks, they increase the demand for one of these assets and thereby increase the returns on the asset. The most notable result in the out-of-sample predictability is the predictability of the returns on value-weighted portfolio by gold. The empirical results show that the restricted model fails to encompass the unrestricted model. Therefore, the unrestricted model is significant in improving out-of-sample predictability of the portfolio returns using gold. From the empirical analyses, we can conclude that in-sample predictability cannot guarantee out-of-sample predictability and vice versa. This may shed light on the disparate results between in-sample and out-of-sample predictability in a large body of previous literature.

Applying a Two-Stage Option Games Method to Investment Decisions of Business Startups: Case Study of a Smart House Startup in Indonesia

  • Wardani, Ida Sri;Fujiwara, Takao
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.178-189
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we present a case study of a new emerging business startup involved in smart house appliances. The irreversible investment concept and real-option theory are introduced as the fundamentals of the model. By using games theory we show that the startup's actions can trigger reactions from other firms. The first part covers initial the research and development stage, while the second part covers production and commercialization. The findings of this study suggest that, given a certain amount of initial investment, an open and shared innovation may lead to hurting a firm's investment while strengthening the competitors' position in the market. However, given the sensitivity analysis, when volatility and demand grow favorably, sharing R&D investment is not a bad option for a new player to adjust its position in the market while still maintaining positive returns.

The Dynamic Relationship between Stock Returns and Investors' Behavior : Trading Hour and Non-trading Hour Analysis (주가와 투자 주체의 상호 관계에 관한 연구 : 거래 시간대와 비거래 시간대 수익률 분석)

  • Ko, Kwang-Soo;Kim, Kwang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.145-167
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    • 2010
  • We investigate the dynamic relationship between stock returns and investors' behavior. For the putpose of the paper, daily KOSPI returns are decomposed into two parts: overnight returns and daytime returns. Overnight return is measured by the closing price of the previous day and the opening price of the current day. And daytime return is measured by the opening and closing prices of the current day. Qvernight returns are assumed to reflect global economic information, and daytime returns, domestic or local information. Major results are as follows: Foreign investors' behavior has an effect on the overnight returns more than the daytime returns. Individual investors' behavior, however, has little effect on the overnight returns, but not the daytime returns. Consequently, forecast error variance decomposition shows that the variance explanation power of foreign investors is higher in overnight returns rather than in the daytime returns. And the variance explanation power of individual investors is higher in daytime returns rather than in overnight returns. It implies that foreign investors employ dynamic hedging strategies and give more weight to global economic information rather than to domestic information. We conclude that investment behavior of foreign investors and domestic individuals is based on different economic information. This paper's findings are consistent with the economic situation that the Korean capital markets have faced since the global financial crisis of August 2008.

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Customers' Needs Analysis for Investment Decision Making in Residential Facility for Retired Seniors (유료노인주거시설에 대한 투자 의사결정을 위한 수요자 요구 분석)

  • Chin, Mee-Youn;Choi, Jong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.53-61
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    • 2008
  • It is expected that the market of residential facility for retired seniors will be a new investment field for construction firms. This study describes the questionnaire survey analysis results of potential customers' demand for the facility. For comparison purpose, direct construction cost was estimated by estimation experts. In addition, a case analysis was conducted to compare direct cost and indirect project cost with the experts' estimation. According to the questionnaire survey analysis, it is observed that there were significant differences in demand between groups which are classified by the regions, living expenditures, the level of property ownership and the scales of residence. From an investor's perspective, investment decision on residential facility for retired seniors should be made considering bothe the level of returns which can be generated from the investment and the customers' needs.

Analysis of Real Estate Investment Trusts' Performance By Risk Adjustment Model (위험조정모형을 활용한 미국 REITs의 부동산 유형별 성과 분석)

  • Park, Won-Seok
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.665-680
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    • 2009
  • This study aims at analyzing the performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts(REITs) by Risk Adjustment Model. The main results are as follows. Firstly, most property types of REITs gain positive(+) excess overall returns at first and second period. On the contrary, most property types of REITs gain negative(-) excess overall returns and their standard deviations are larger at financial crisis period. Secondly, lodging, regional mall and commercial mortgage show lower risk-lower return, and freestanding, apartment and specialty show higher risk-higher return than average REITs, according to the CAPM results of . Moreover CAPM results of show the characteristics of REITs as investment commodities changes into higher risk-higher return for financial crisis period. Lastly, risk adjusted demanded returns of REITs are affected positively(+) by systemic risks and negatively(-) by unsystemic risks, according to the Risk Adjustment Model results of both and . Comparing risk adjusted demanded returns of REITs with their realized returns, healthcare reveals the largest outperformance.

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Lagged Effects of R&D Investment on Corporate Market Value: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms Listed in Chinese Stock Markets

  • LEE, Jung Wan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2020
  • The study examines lagged economic effects of research and development (R&D) investment on the market value of manufacturing firms listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange or the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in China. This study applies panel data analysis methods to address the following issues: 1) There might be an adjustment lag in the impact of R&D investment on corporate market value, and 2) Unobserved firm effects must be taken into account. The balanced panel data includes a total of 1,462 observations with 34 cross-sections of manufacturing firms listed on Chinese stock markets and with 27 time-specific quarterly periods from 2007 to 2017. The results indicate that the R&D investment of Chinese manufacturing firms tends to yield favorable market value of the firm with some adjustments to time. The results show that R&D investment exhibits a strong positive impact on their market value of manufacturing firms in Chinese stock markets. Moreover, R&D investment has a positive time-lag effect on the market value of the firm. Interestingly, the R&D investment of Chinese manufacturing firms generate a relatively constant positive effect on their market value, supporting the notion that the corresponding returns of R&D investment for such firms yield lagged but added market values.

Analyzing Investment Effects of Fisheries R&D Projects : A Case of NFRDI's R&D Projects (수산업 R&D 사업의 투자효과 분석 : 국립수산과학원 수산시험연구사업을 중심으로)

  • Park, Kyoung-Il;Kim, Do-Hoon
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2013
  • This study is aimed to analyze investment effects of fisheries R&D projects of the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute(NFRDI). In the analysis, Granger causal relations between R&D investment and fisheries production are tested. In addition, time-lag effects of fisheries R&D investment are estimated with an impulse response analysis and investment effects of R&D projects are estimated by changes of social surplus. Results indicate that there exists an Granger-causality between R&D investment and fisheries production and fisheries production responds to the fisheries R&D shock about three years after the initial shock. The magnitudes of the impacts increase until a peak is reached 5~7 years and the impacts decline to zero after 25 years. As investment effects, it is shown that the internal rate of returns of fisheries R&D investment is 55.2%.

Determinants of the Prices and Returns of Preferred Stocks (우선주가격 및 수익률 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, San;Won, Chae-Hwan;Won, Young-Woong
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.159-172
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    • 2020
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate economic variables which have impact on the prices and returns of preferred stocks and to provide investors, underwriters, and policy makers with information regarding correlations and causal relations between them. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 98 monthly data from Korea Exchange and Bank of Korea. The Granger causal relation analysis, unit-root test and the multiple regression analysis were hired in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, our study derives the economic variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and their implications, while previous studies focused mainly on the differential characteristics and related economic factors between common and preferred stocks. Empirical results show that the significant variables influencing the prices and returns of preffered stocks are consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, industrial production index, KOSPI volatility index, and exchange rate between Korean won and US dollar. Second, consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, and industrial production index have significant casual relations with the returns of preferred stocks, providing market participants with important information regarding investment in preferred stocks. Research implications or Originality - This study is different from previous studies in that preferred stocks themselves are investigated rather than the gap between common stocks and preferred stocks. In addition, we derive the major macro variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and find some useful causal relations between the macro variables and returns of preferred stocks. These findings give important implications to market participants, including stock investors, underwriters, and policy makers.

Investigating the Impact of IT Security Investments on Competitor's Market Value: Evidence from Korea Stock Market

  • Young Jin Kwon;Sang-Yong Tom Lee
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.328-352
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    • 2020
  • If a firm announces an investment in IT security, how the market value of its competitors reacts to the announcement? We try to shed light on this question through an event study design. To test the relationship, we collected 143 announcements on cybersecurity investment and measured the subsequent impact on 533 competitors' abnormal returns, spanning from 2000 to 2019. Our estimation results present that, on average, the announcements have no observable impact on the market value of announcing firms and competitors as well, which is consistent with findings of a prior study. Interestingly, however, the impact becomes evident when we classify our samples by industries (Finance vs. non-Finance or ICT vs. non-ICT) and firm size (Big vs. Small). We interpret our empirical findings through the lenses of contagion effect and competition effect between announcing firms and their competitors. Key finding of our study is that, for financial service firms, the effect resulting from the announcement on cybersecurity investment transfers to competitors in the same direction (i.e., contagion effect).

The Relation between Net Purchase of Foreign and Institution Investors and Expected Returns in the Korea Stock Market (외국인 및 기관투자자의 순매수강도와 주식수익률 간의 관계)

  • Kim, Soo-Kyung;Byun, Young-Tae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.23-44
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    • 2011
  • In this paper we examines the relation between net purchase of foreign and institution investors and stock returns in Korean stock market. For this study, KOSPI returns are classified into three parts: close to close, close to open and open to close returns. Close to close returns is measured by the closing price of t-1 day and the closing price of t day. Close to open returns is measured by the closing price of t-1 day and the opening price of t day. Open to close returns is measured by the opening price of t day and the closing price of the day. Empirically major findings are as follows. First, the previous day both foreign and institution investors' behavior have an statistically significant negative effect on the close to close returns. However, the current day their behavior positively affect close to close returns. Second, the previous day both foreign and institution investors' net purchase have a significantly positive effect on the open to close returns. Finally, the previous day foreign behavior has little effect on open to close returns, but institution investors negatively affect open to close.

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