• Title/Summary/Keyword: Return period

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A Risk-Return Analysis of Loan Portfolio Diversification in the Vietnamese Banking System

  • HUYNH, Japan;DANG, Van Dan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.9
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    • pp.105-115
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    • 2020
  • The study empirically examines the effects of loan portfolio diversification on bank risk and return in the nascent banking market of Vietnam. Loan portfolio diversification is captured through the Hirschman-Herfindahl index and the Shannon Entropy with sectoral exposures. We access each bank's financial reports to collect the required data, especially the breakdown of sectoral loan portfolios, thus constituting a unique dataset. To compute bank return, we use the traditional accounting indicators, including return-on-assets, return-on-equity, and net-interest margin. For bank risk, we utilize the loan-loss provisions and non-performing loans relative to gross customer loans. Using a sample of 30 commercial banks over the period from 2008 to 2019 and the system generalized method of moments estimator for the dynamic panel, we indicate the downsides of portfolio diversification. Concretely, we observe that all diversification measures exhibit significantly negative signs in all regressions across different bank return proxies. At the same time, the estimates display the significant and positive impact of diversification on the non-performing loan ratio. Hence, sectoral loan portfolio diversification significantly hampers bank performance in both aspects of lower return and higher credit risk. The results are robust across a rich set of bank performance and portfolio diversification measures.

Estimating the Return Flow of Irrigation Water for Paddies Using Hydrology-Hydraulic Modeling (수리·수문해석 모델을 활용한 농업용수 회귀수량 추정)

  • Shin, Ji-Hyeon;Nam, Won-Ho;Yoon, Dong-Hyun;Yang, Mi-Hye;Jung, In-Kyun;Lee, Kwang-Ya
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.6
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2023
  • Irrigation return flow plays an important role in river flow forecasting, basin water supply planning, and determining irrigation water use. Therefore, accurate calculation of irrigation return flow rate is essential for the rational use and management of water resources. In this study, EPA-SWMM (Environmental Protection Agency-Storm Water Management Model) modeling was used to analyze the irrigation return flow and return flow rate of each intake work using irrigation canal network. As a result of the EPA-SWMM, we tried to estimate the quick return flow and delayed return flow using the water supply, paddy field, drainage, infiltration, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. We selected 9 districts, including pumping stations and weirs, to reflect various characteristics of irrigation water, focusing on the four major rivers (Hangang, Geumgang, Nakdonggang, Yeongsangang, and Seomjingang). We analyzed the irrigation period from May 1, 2021 to September 10, 2021. As a result of estimating the irrigation return flow rate, it varied from approximately 44 to 56%. In the case of the Gokseong Guseong area with the highest return flow rate, it was estimated that the quick return flow was 4,677 103 m3 and the delayed return flow was 1,473 103 m3 , with a quick return flow rate of 42.6% and a delayed return flow rate of 13.4%.

The Effects of Widening Daily Stock Price Limits on the Relevance between Audit Quality and Stock Return

  • JI, Sang-Hyun;YOON, Ki-Chang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2020
  • The study investigates the effect of the widened daily stock price limits on the usefulness of accounting information in Korea: 1) whether investors place a higher importance on audit quality, an indicator of the reliability of accounting information, and 2) whether there are differences in the relationships between audit quality and stock-price earning-rates two years before and after June 15, 2016. This study employs samples of two years (2013 to 2015) before the widening and two years after the widening (2016 to 2017). The samples are limited to the companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange, accounting settled in December, collected from Fn-Guide and TS-2000 of the Korea Listed Companies Association. The results show that the positive association between audit quality and stock return was increased during the later period, compared to the preceding period. This tendency was more evident in companies with higher debt ratios and companies with lower levels of income smoothing, which is considered to have higher risks. The findings suggest that it is the first study evaluating the effect of widening daily stock price limits, made on June 15, 2015, on the usefulness of audit quality information by examining the relevance between audit quality and stock return.

Estimation of Irrigation Return Flow on Agricultural Watershed in Madun Reservoir (마둔저수지 농업유역의 관개 회귀수량 추정)

  • Kim, Ha-Young;Nam, Won-Ho;Mun, Young-Sik;Bang, Na-Kyoung;Kim, Han-Joong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.63 no.2
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2021
  • Irrigation return flow is defined as the excess of irrigation water that is not evapotranspirated by direct surface drainage, and which returns to an aquifer. It is important to quantitatively estimate the irrigation return flow of the water cycle in an agricultural watershed. However, the previous studies on irrigation return flow rates are limitations in quantifying the return flow rate by region. Therefore, simulating irrigation return flow by accounting for various water loss rates derived from agricultural practices is necessary while the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of cultivated canal-irrigated watersheds. In this study, the irrigation return flow rate of agricultural water, especially for the entire agricultural watershed, was estimated using the SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) module from 2010 to 2019 for the Madun reservoir located in Anseong, Gyeonggi-do. The results of SWMM simulation and water balance analysis estimated irrigation return flow rate. The estimated average annual irrigation return flow ratio during the period from 2010 to 2019 was approximately 55.3% of the annual irrigation amounts of which 35.9% was rapid return flow and 19.4% was delayed return flow. Based on these results, the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approach can provide a valuable approach for estimating the irrigation return flow under different hydrological and water management conditions.

Economic Feasibility of Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion Boiler Power Plant for Low Grade Coal (저급탄용 순환유동층 보일러 발전설비의 경제성 평가)

  • Hong, Min-Pyo;Moon, Seung-Jae
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2012
  • The structure and combustion characteristics, and the economic feasibility of the circulating fluidized bed combustion(CFBC) boiler using low grade coal were introduced. The economic feasibility is evaluated by comparing a 500 MW CFBC boiler power plant using low grade coal and a pulverized combustion boiler power plant with high grade coal. As the result of the evaluation, the pulverized coal combustion boiler power plant has an internal rate of return of 12.95%, 1,395.9 billion Korean won of net present value, and 6.26 years of payback period. On the other hand, CFBC boiler power plant has an internal rate of return of 13.54%, 1,704.3 billion Korean won of net present value, and 6.02 years payback period. Therefore, the CFBC boiler power plant has better feasibility in all aspects, as 0.59% higher of internal rate of return, 308.4 billion Korean won of higher net present value and 0.24 year of shorter payback period.

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Analysis of Generalized Extreme Value Distribution to Estimate Storm Sewer Capacity Under Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 하수관거시설의 계획우수량 산정을 위한 일반극치분포 분석)

  • Lee, Hak-Pyo;Ryu, Jae-Na;Yu, Soon-Yu;Park, Kyoo-Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.321-329
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    • 2012
  • In this study, statistical analysis under both stationary and non-stationary climate was conducted for rainfall data measured in Seoul. Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and Gumbel distribution were used for the analysis. Rainfall changes under the non-stationary climate were estimated by applying time variable (t) to location parameter (${\xi}$). Rainfall depths calculated in non-stationary climate increased by 1.1 to 6.2mm and 1.0 to 4.6mm for the GEV distribution and gumbel distribution respectively from those stationary forms. Changes in annual maximum rainfall were estimated with rate of change in the location parameter (${\xi}1{\cdot}t$), and temporal changes of return period were predicted. This was also available for re-evaluating the current sewer design return period. Design criteria of sewer system was newly suggested considering life expectance of the system as well as temporal changes in the return period.

Improved first-order method for estimating extreme wind pressure considering directionality for non-typhoon climates

  • Wang, Jingcheng;Quan, Yong;Gu, Ming
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.473-482
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    • 2020
  • The first-order method for estimating the extreme wind pressure on building envelopes with consideration of the directionality of wind speed and wind pressure is improved to enhance its computational efficiency. In this improved method, the result is obtained directly from the empirical distribution of a random selection of annual maximum wind pressure samples generated by a Monte Carlo method, rather than from the previously utilized extreme wind pressure probability distribution. A discussion of the relationship between the first- and full-order methods indicates that when extreme wind pressures in a non-typhoon climate with a high return period are estimated with consideration of directionality, using the relatively simple first-order method instead of the computationally intensive full-order method is reasonable. The validation of this reasonableness is equivalent to validating two assumptions to improve its computational efficiency: 1) The result obtained by the full-order method is conservative when the extreme wind pressure events among different sectors are independent. 2) The result obtained by the first-order method for a high return period is not significantly affected when the extreme wind speeds among the different sectors are assumed to be independent. These two assumptions are validated by examples in different regions and theoretical derivation.

Estimation of Paddy Rice Evapotranspiration Considering Climate Change Using LARS-WG (LARS-WG를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 논벼 증발산량 산정)

  • Hong, Eun-Mi;Choi, Jin-Yong;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Yoo, Seung-Hwan;Kang, Moon-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2009
  • Climate change due to global warming possibly effects the agricultural water use in terms of evapotranspiration. Thus, to estimate rice evapotranspiration under the climate change, future climate data including precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures for 90 years ($2011{\sim}2100$), were forecasted using LARS-WG. Observed 30 years ($1971{\sim}2000$) climate data and climate change scenario based on SRES A2 were prepared to operate the LARS-WG model. Using these data and FAO Blaney-Criddle method, reference evapotranspiration and rice evapotranspiration were estimated for 9 different regions in South Korea and rice evapotranspiration of 10 year return period was estimated using frequency analysis. As the results of this study, rice evapotranspiration of 10 year return period increased 1.56%, 5.99% and 10.68% for each 30 years during $2011{\sim}2100$ (2025s; $2011{\sim}2040$, 2055s; $2041{\sim}2070$, 2085s; $2071{\sim}2100$) demonstrating that the increased temperature from the climate change increases the consumptive use of crops and agricultural water use.

A Study on the Calculation of Productive Rate of Return (생산투자수익률 계산방법에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Jin Wook;Kim, Kun-Woo;Kim, Seok Gon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.95-99
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    • 2015
  • The IRR(internal rate of return) is often used by investors for the evaluation of engineering projects. Unfortunately, it has serial flaws: (1) multiple real-valued IRRs may arise; (2) complex-valued IRRs may arise; (3) the IRR is, in special cases, incompatible with the net present value (NPV) in accept/reject decisions. The efforts of management scientists and economists in providing a reliable project rate of return have generated over the decades an immense amount of contributions aiming to solve these shortcomings. Especially, multiple internal rate of returns (IRRs) have a fatal flaw when we decide to accep it or not. To solve it, some researchers came up with external rate of returns (ERRs) such as ARR (Average Rate of Return) or MIRR (MIRR, Modified Internal Rate of Return). ARR or MIRR. will also always yield the same decision for a engineering project consistent with the NPV criterion. The ERRs are to modify the procedure for computing the rate of return by making explicit and consistent assumptions about the interest rate at which intermediate receipts from projects may be invested. This reinvestment could be either in other projects or in the outside market. However, when we use traditional ERRs, a volume of capital investment is still unclear. Alternatively, the productive rate of return (PRR) can settle these problems. Generally, a rate of return is a profit on an investment over a period of time, expressed as a proportion of the original investment. The time period is typically the life of a project. The PRR is based on the full life of the engineering project. but has been annualised to project one year. And the PRR uses the effective investment instead of the original investment. This method requires that the cash flow of an engineering project must be separated into 'investment' and 'loss' to calculate the PRR value. In this paper, we proposed a tabulated form for easy calculation of the PRR by modifing the profit and loss statement, and the cash flow statement.

Hydrological Studies on the design flood and risk of failure of the Hydraulic Structures( II) (수리구조물의 파괴위험도와 설계홍수량에 관한 수문학적 연구(II) - 비연초과치 계열을 중심으로 -)

  • 이순혁;박명근
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 1986
  • This studies were established to find out the characteristics of frequency distributiom for the number of occurrence and magnitude, probable flood flows according to the return periods, design floods, and design frequency factors for the studying basins in relation to the risk levels which can be correlated with design return period and the life of structure in the non-annual exceedance series. Eight watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong and Seom Jin river basin were selected as studying basins. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Poisson distribution and Exponential distribution were tested as a good fitted distributions for the number of occurrence and magnitude for exceedance event, respectively,at selected watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong and Seom Jin river basin. 2.Formulas for the probable flood flows and probable flood flows according to the return periods were derivated for the exponential distribution at the selected watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong, and Seom Jin river basin. 3.Analysis for the risk of failure was connected return period with design life of structure in the non-annual exceedance series. 4.Empirical formulas for the design frequency factors were derivated from under the condition of the return periods identify with the life of structure in relation to the different risk levels in the non-annual exceedance series. 5.Design freguency factors were appeared to be increased in proportion to the return periods while those are in inverse proportion to the levels of the risk of failure. Numerical values for the design frequency factors for the non-annual exceedance series ware appeared generally higher than those of annual maximum series already published by the first report. 6. Design floods according to the different risk levels could be derivated by using of formulas of the design frequency factors for all studying watersheds in the nor-annual exceedance series.

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