• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.13-20
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• 2010

Uncertainty in housing price fluctuation has great impact on the overall economy due to importance of housing market as both place of residence and investment target. Therefore, estimating housing market condition is a highly important task in terms of setting national policy. Primary indicator of the housing market is a ratio between rent and transaction price of housing. The research explores dynamic relationships between Rent-Transaction price ratio, housing transaction price and jeonse rental price, using Vector Autoregressive Model, in order to demonstrate significance of shifting rent-transaction price that is subject to changes in housing transaction and housing rental market. The research applied housing transaction price index and housing rental price index as an indicator to measure transaction and rental price of housing. The price index and data for price ratio was derived from statistical data of the Kookmin Bank. The time-series data contains monthly data ranging between January 1999 and November 2009; the data was log transformed to convert to level variable. The analysis result suggests that the rising ratio between rent-transaction price of housing should be interpreted as a precursor for rise of housing transaction price, rather than judging as a mere indicator of a current trend.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.6315-6324
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• 2015

This study analyses the effects of household finances on rental price of apartment in Seoul which play a major role in real estate policy. We estimate VAR models using time series data. Economy variables such as sales price of apartment in Seoul, consumer price index, hiring rate, real GNI and loan amount of housing mortgage, which relate to household finances and influence the rental price of apartment, are used for estimation. The main findings are as follows. In the short term, the rental price of apartment is impacted by economy variables. Specifically, Relative contributions of variation in rental price of apartment through structural shock of economy variables are most influenced by their own. However, in the long term, household variables are more influential to the rental price of apartment. These results are expected to contribute to establish housing price stabilization policies through understanding the relationship between economy variables and rental price of apartment.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2020.11a
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• pp.35-36
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• 2020

In recent years, prices have risen sharply, and housing has become an object of investment. Accordingly, the expansion of the supply of public rental housing with publicity and the conversion of pre-sale are emerging as an alternative to stabilize the housing market. However, the method of calculating the pre-sale price applied for each rental period has a problem that there is a large difference from the construction cost at the time of construction As an improvement measure, there is a method of applying a conversion price for 5-year public rental housing and the price control. Each has its strengths and weaknesses, and we apply the most appropriate improvement measures in consideration of present and future values.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.128-136
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• 2012

In this study, we investigated the macroeconomic variables that affect housing prices thus creating a large impact on people's lives as well as the real estate market. For the study, the macroeconomic variables able to influence the House Rental Price (housing price by lease or deposit) were used for an analysis as follows: housing sales price index, household loans rate, total household savings, the number of employees and a multiple regression analysis was performed using a time series for each macroeconomic variable. As a result of the analysis, the House Rental Price was affected by all of four macroeconomic variables. The House Rental Price increased as each variable enlarged. In conclusion, this study may be useful for finding a solution for stabilizing the House Rental Price as well as for the establishment of efficient and sustainable policies for the housing market.

• Survey Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.1-21
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• 2008

The housing market in Korea had mainly consisted of Maemae(purchasing market) and Chonsei(rental market). Since 1997 foreign exchange crisis, the rental housing market has experienced substantial changes in preferred rental contracts between Chonsei and monthly-rent. Even though monthly-rent has taken a substantial portion of housing rental contracts, not yet reliable monthly-rent index has been developed. Furthermore, it isn't obvious to define monthly-rent because there are many types of monthly rent structures from full-monthly-rent to monthly-rent-with-variable-deposit. This study is the basic research of developing a housing price index of monthly-rent in accordance with the existing price index of Maemae and Chonsei in Korea. This research has been carried out with the following contents: (1) Constructing the actually desirable concept of monthly-rent through examining monthly-rental market in Korea. (2) Selecting the reasonable method to investigate monthly-rental market, especially monthly-rent-with-variable -deposit. (3) Designing monthly-rental market samples and calculating the price index of monthly-rent based on 2005 Census.

• Journal of the Korean housing association
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• v.19 no.5
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• pp.29-36
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• 2008

The objective of his study is to research the effect of the 'Dagagu' housing purchase and the public rental housing supply on the nearby community. In the case of public rental housing, many studies have demonstrated that the perception that a public rental house is a low income dwelling has an external effect on the residents immediately outside the area such as the perception of the lowering of house prices. However, an advanced research concerning the 'Dagagu' housing purchase and public rental housing has not been carried out because it has only recently been enforced. Through a survey conduced of residents who live nearby the 'Dagagu' housing purchase and public rental housing the aim of his study is to show how the residents perceive the renal houses and are influenced by them. At the same time, this study demonstrates the external effect of rental house supply by analyzing the housing price around the area. Most people who live in the near by 'Dagagu' housing purchase and public renal housing have a negative opinion of his housing because they believe that the residential prices will depreciate. However, only about 40% of the people felt that the residential price depreciation as a result of the 'Dagagu' housing purchase and public rental housing supply was not visible.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.11 no.8
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• pp.31-38
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• 2020

Purpose: This study uses 'Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model' to predict the impact of a sharp drop in the base rate due to COVID-19 at the present time when government policies for stabilizing house prices are in progress. The purpose of this study is to predict implications for the direction of the government's house policy by predicting changes in house transaction prices and house rental prices after a sharp cut in the base rate. Research design, data, and methodology: The ARIMA intervention model can build a model without additional information with just one time series. Therefore, it is a time-series analysis method frequently used for short-term prediction. After the subprime mortgage, which had shocked since the global financial crisis in April 2007, the bank's interest rate in 2020 is set at a time point close to zero at 0.75%. After that, the model was estimated using the interest rate fluctuations for the Bank of Korea base interest rate, the house transaction price index, and the house rental price index as event variables. Results: In predicting the change in house transaction price due to interest rate intervention, the house transaction price index due to the fall in interest rates was predicted to change after 3 months. As a result, it was 102.47 in April 2020, 102.87 in May 2020, and 103.21 in June 2020. It was expected to rise in the short term. In forecasting the change in house rental price due to interest rate intervention, the house rental price index due to the drop in interest rate was predicted to change after 3 months. As a result, it was 97.76 in April 2020, 97.85 in May 2020, and 97.97 in June 2020. It was expected to rise in the short term. Conclusions: If low interest rates continue to stimulate the contracted economy caused by COVID-19, it seems that there is ample room for house transaction and rental prices to rise amid low growth. Therefore, In order to stabilize the house price due to the low interest rate situation, it is considered that additional measures are needed to suppress speculative demand.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.361-370
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• 2013

The purpose of this paper is to appraise Bogeumzari Housing Program(BHP) which is providing public housing of different types for the target brackets on a matching system basis. Especially, on government's announcing BHP plan with the designation of several Bogeumzari districts in Seoul Metropolitan area, they raised a question about target groups' receiving the benefits of BHP plan and this paper focuses on the question. We tried to analyze two topics. First one is about the exorbitant windfall profits to the future potential residents derived from low price or rental cost of Bogeumzari Housing in comparison with neighborhood's market price. Second one is the low possibility of low-moderate income household's access to absolutely high price Bogeumzari Housing that is because the market price is so high in some area. BHP includes not only long-term public rental hosing(Permeant rental housing, National rental housing) for low income households but also other types of public rental housing(10-year rental housing, shared-ownership rental housing) for moderate income households. So, in this study we tried to find out the affordability of each bracket in three public housing types, which are public sales housing(condominium), 10-year rental housing and shared-ownership rental housing. Through analyzing the housing affordability by types, regions, size, we tried to seek the answer to the controversy and propose policy implications related to the future public housing programs.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.3-17
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• 2018

This paper empirically investigates time-varying regression parameter of hedonic price model for Seoul office rental market in distinct periods of a market cycle. Office rental index is constructed and the index indicates that the global financial crisis differentiates the analysis period into decline stage and recovery stage. Pre-crisis period is classified into decline stage and post-crisis is classified into recovery stage. Structural break-point test suggests structural change of hedonic model of rent determinants occurred in 2008. Evidence indicates that individual regression parameters of hedonic price model for decline stage are significantly different from those for recovery stage. Changes in the regression parameters of land price, distance to metro, building size, building age, and conversion rate are consistent. In recovery stage, the effect of locational advantage on office rent decreases whereas the effect of building characteristics on the rent increases.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.195-213
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• 2015

Recently, there has been changing the housing rental market paradigm structure which has been increased the ratios of partly monthly rental ratios, because of increasing chonsei's price, the preference of monthly rental and the rack of chonsei's supply amount. This study had done a survey of 1,400 people for private and public rental residents by region and housing types during Dec. 2014. According to the result of survey, Market participant prospect strongly to change chonsei to monthly rental market structure and the reason of rising of chonsei's price is the preference of householder's monthly rental because of decreasing interest rate and the rack of chonsei's supply amount. The housing policy's proposal of the stability of low income class's housing and jense's price strongly recommended the expansion of public rental housing supply and the activation of private rental housing, the expansion of chonsei loan, housing boucher etx. The rental market policy for high income class have desired to market autonomy than public side's intervention, on the other hands, the rental market policy for low income class have strongly need to the public side's intervention such as the contiuneous long-term rental housing supply.