• Title/Summary/Keyword: Reliable prediction

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A Study on the Improvement of Bearing Capacity Prediction Equation for Auger-drilled Piling (매입말뚝공법의 지지력 예측식 개선에 관한 연구)

  • 최도웅;한병권;서영화;조성한
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.382-389
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    • 2002
  • Recently, auger-drilled piling has been widely used in urban area to reduce the air pollution and noise. But this construction method that its basic theory was introduced from Japan may be changed depending on the each piling company and construction field condition. Therefore, the design code and management method for auger-drilled piling is not defined yet. Especially, the lack of research on the bearing capacity of auger-drilled piling leads to the absence of rational bearing capacity prediction equation. This paper presents the optimum design code and economical construction method of the auger-drilled piling by proposing the new bearing capacity prediction equation based on the site specific soil types and construction conditions. In this paper, existing bearing capacity prediction equations and current pile load tests were compared. And the end bearing capacity and skin friction characteristics were also analyzed by comparing the results of CAPWAP. From the results of analysis, a reliable bearing capacity prediction equation considered soil types is proposed.

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Prediction Method for the Implicit Interpersonal Trust Between Facebook Users (페이스북 사용자간 내재된 신뢰수준 예측 방법)

  • Song, Hee Seok
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.177-191
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    • 2013
  • Social network has been expected to increase the value of social capital through online user interactions which remove geographical boundary. However, online users in social networks face challenges of assessing whether the anonymous user and his/her providing information are reliable or not because of limited experiences with a small number of users. Therefore. it is vital to provide a successful trust model which builds and maintains a web of trust. This study aims to propose a prediction method for the interpersonal trust which measures the level of trust about information provider in Facebook. To develop the prediction method. we first investigated behavioral research for trust in social science and extracted 5 antecedents of trust : lenience, ability, steadiness, intimacy, and similarity. Then we measured the antecedents from the history of interactive behavior and built prediction models using the two decision trees and a computational model. We also applied the proposed method to predict interpersonal trust between Facebook users and evaluated the prediction accuracy. The predicted trust metric has dynamic feature which can be adjusted over time according to the interaction between two users.

Internet Roundtrip Delay Prediction Using the Maximum Entropy Principle

  • Liu, Peter Xiaoping;Meng, Max Q-H;Gu, Jason
    • Journal of Communications and Networks
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2003
  • Internet roundtrip delay/time (RTT) prediction plays an important role in detecting packet losses in reliable transport protocols for traditional web applications and determining proper transmission rates in many rate-based TCP-friendly protocols for Internet-based real-time applications. The widely adopted autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) model with fixed-parameters is shown to be insufficient for all scenarios due to its intrinsic limitation that it filters out all high-frequency components of RTT dynamics. In this paper, we introduce a novel parameter-varying RTT model for Internet roundtrip time prediction based on the information theory and the maximum entropy principle (MEP). Since the coefficients of the proposed RTT model are updated dynamically, the model is adaptive and it tracks RTT dynamics rapidly. The results of our experiments show that the MEP algorithm works better than the ARMA method in both RTT prediction and RTO estimation.

THE RELIABILITY PREDICTION OF PCB CARDS OF POWER CABINET OF CONTROL ROD CONTROL SYSTEM (제어봉 제어 시스템의 전력함 PCB 카드에 대한 신뢰성 예측)

  • Won, Jung-Hae;Suk, Sur-Jung;Kyun, Yook-Sim;Han, Nam-Jung
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.07d
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    • pp.2028-2030
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    • 2003
  • This paper describes the results of reliability prediction analysis of control rod control system, which is being developed as part of KNICS project. The results of reliability prediction indicate MTBF(Mean Time Between Failure) of cards for control rod control system. A purpose of reliability prediction is to evaluate MTBF of cards, identify the design drawbacks of cards, and propose design improvement to a designer to help design the more reliable control rod control system. This reliability prediction analysis used the the part count and part stress method in the basis of MIL-HDBK-217F.

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Comparative Analysis of PM10 Prediction Performance between Neural Network Models

  • Jung, Yong-Jin;Oh, Chang-Heon
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.241-247
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    • 2021
  • Particulate matter has emerged as a serious global problem, necessitating highly reliable information on the matter. Therefore, various algorithms have been used in studies to predict particulate matter. In this study, we compared the prediction performance of neural network models that have been actively studied for particulate matter prediction. Among the neural network algorithms, a deep neural network (DNN), a recurrent neural network, and long short-term memory were used to design the optimal prediction model using a hyper-parameter search. In the comparative analysis of the prediction performance of each model, the DNN model showed a lower root mean square error (RMSE) than the other algorithms in the performance comparison using the RMSE and the level of accuracy as metrics for evaluation. The stability of the recurrent neural network was slightly lower than that of the other algorithms, although the accuracy was higher.

Comparative Study of NIR-based Prediction Methods for Biomass Weight Loss Profiles

  • Cho, Hyun-Woo;Liu, J. Jay
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2012
  • Biomass has become a major feedstock for bioenergy and other bio-based products because of its renewability and environmental benefits. Various researches have been done in the prediction of crucial characteristics of biomass, including the active utilization of spectroscopy data. Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has been widely used because of its attractive features: it's non-destructive and cost-effective producing fast and reliable analysis results. This work developed the multivariate statistical scheme for predicting weight loss profiles based on the utilization of NIR spectra data measured for six lignocellulosic biomass types. Wavelet analysis was used as a compression tool to suppress irrelevant noise and to select features or wavelengths that better explain NIR data. The developed scheme was demonstrated using real NIR data sets, in which different prediction models were evaluated in terms of prediction performance. In addition, the benefits of using right pretreatment of NIR spectra were also given. In our case, it turned out that compression of high-dimensional NIR spectra by wavelet and then PLS modeling yielded more reliable prediction results without handling full set of noisy data. This work showed that the developed scheme can be easily applied for rapid analysis of biomass.

Defect Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithm in Semiconductor Test Process (기계학습 알고리즘을 이용한 반도체 테스트공정의 불량 예측)

  • Jang, Suyeol;Jo, Mansik;Cho, Seulki;Moon, Byungmoo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.450-454
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    • 2018
  • Because of the rapidly changing environment and high uncertainties, the semiconductor industry is in need of appropriate forecasting technology. In particular, both the cost and time in the test process are increasing because the process becomes complicated and there are more factors to consider. In this paper, we propose a prediction model that predicts a final "good" or "bad" on the basis of preconditioning test data generated in the semiconductor test process. The proposed prediction model solves the classification and regression problems that are often dealt with in the semiconductor process and constructs a reliable prediction model. We also implemented a prediction model through various machine learning algorithms. We compared the performance of the prediction models constructed through each algorithm. Actual data of the semiconductor test process was used for accurate prediction model construction and effective test verification.

CNN-LSTM Coupled Model for Prediction of Waterworks Operation Data

  • Cao, Kerang;Kim, Hangyung;Hwang, Chulhyun;Jung, Hoekyung
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1508-1520
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we propose an improved model to provide users with a better long-term prediction of waterworks operation data. The existing prediction models have been studied in various types of models such as multiple linear regression model while considering time, days and seasonal characteristics. But the existing model shows the rate of prediction for demand fluctuation and long-term prediction is insufficient. Particularly in the deep running model, the long-short-term memory (LSTM) model has been applied to predict data of water purification plant because its time series prediction is highly reliable. However, it is necessary to reflect the correlation among various related factors, and a supplementary model is needed to improve the long-term predictability. In this paper, convolutional neural network (CNN) model is introduced to select various input variables that have a necessary correlation and to improve long term prediction rate, thus increasing the prediction rate through the LSTM predictive value and the combined structure. In addition, a multiple linear regression model is applied to compile the predicted data of CNN and LSTM, which then confirms the data as the final predicted outcome.

Performance prediction of mixed-flow pumps (혼류 펌프의 성능 해석)

  • O, Hyeong-U;Yun, Ui-Su;Jeong, Myeong-Gyun;Ha, Jin-Su
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.70-78
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    • 1998
  • The present study has tested semi-empirical loss models for a reliable performance prediction of mixed-flow pumps with four different specific speeds. In order to improve the predictive capabilities, this paper recommends a new internal loss model and a modified parasitic loss model. The prediction method presented here is also compared with that based on two-dimensional cascade theory. Predicted performance curves by the proposed set of loss models agree fairly well with experimental data for a variety of mixed-flow pumps in the normal operating range, but further studies considering 'droop-like' head performance characteristic due to flow reversal in mixed-flow impellers at low flow range near shut-off head are needed.

A Study on Prediction of Traffic Volume Using Road Management Big Data

  • Sung, Hongki;Chong, Kyusoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.589-594
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    • 2015
  • In reflection of road expansion and increasing use rates, interest has blossomed in predicting driving environment. In addition, a gigantic scale of big data is applied to almost every area around the world. Recently, technology development is being promoted in the area of road traffic particularly for traffic information service and analysis system in utilization of big data. This study examines actual cases of road management systems and road information analysis technologies, home and abroad. Based on the result, the limitations of existing technologies and road management systems are analyzed. In this study, a development direction and expected effort of the prediction of road information are presented. This study also examines regression analysis about relationship between guide name and traffic volume. According to the development of driving environment prediction platform, it will be possible to serve more reliable road information and also it will make safe and smart road infrastructures.